Got sick!

Of Patrick Corbin! Hey yo! 

No not really. Was sick before that. But after vacation so I'll take it.  Let's go over the deadline deals! 

Hunter Harvey for Cayden Wallace (and a competitive balance pick) : 

You guys all know I'm in the tank for Harvey. Swing and miss stuff, doesn't give up homers, that's already a pretty good relief arm and previous years suggest control is possible which would make him great. But the Nats leaned hard on that arm and with a year of control he was a prime target for other teams. And as noted earlier the Nats actually have some relief arms in the minors worth trying out. So he's gone. 

Cayden Wallace is decent return for Harvey. FWIW the Royals farm was noted as "notably thin on top-tier talent" He's not likely to be a star. But he's 22/23 (August 7th) and handling AA fairly well. His defense is well thought of. He could be a decent doubles power ok average type player but more likely he's a bench guy. That's also what you'd probably expect from a competitive balance pick. The more of these you get the better. A several year decent bench guy for Harvey would be a reasonable return and maybe you get lucky. 

Jesse Winker for Tyler Stuart : 

Winker proved he was good when healthy and was healthy with the Nats. He might head into FA healthy and that would (1) be very good for him, and (2) make it really unlikely for him to return to the Nats. He's a win now bat. If you sign him it's with the hope he stays healthy in 2025 first and foremost. The Nats are a win later team, even if later is just 2026. 

Tyler Stuart isn't that much of a prospect. He slots in where Jake Bennett, Jackson Rutledge, etc. fall. The good news is that what he does well (no walks, no homers) is what the Nats like. The bad news is he's pretty hittable guy at AA and he's going to turn 25 right after the season. There's also a question of arm durability as he was a reliever in college. It's more org depth than the lottery ticket you hope for. 

Lane Thomas for Alex Clemmey, Rafeal Ramirez Jr and Jose Tena : 

The Nats grabbed Lane for Jon Lester in what turned out to be a steal. In retrospect, it's clear that the Cardinals, who had a bulk of AAAA type OFs, really didn't know how to evaluate them and in the last couple of years have dealt away several who did fine and kept others that did not. Lane did fine! The first couple months and 2022 were fun because it was a surprise that he was ok as a full-time player. But that also hid the fact he was a bad fielder. He's not the worst option for a 3rd OF for a decent team right now but age curves suggest he soon will be a better 4th OF and its hard to see him as part of the Nats future a few years down the road. Made real sense to deal him.

Jose Tena is an interesting player but probably not good. Swings hard. When he doesn't miss the ball he hits it hard, but mostly at the ground. So there are two things to fix here. At his age maybe you can but it just feels real likely he's going to keep striking out like 40% of the time and that untenable. But as a third throw in, sure! 

Rafeal Ramirez Jr is the bad lottery ticket. Super young. Intriguing power. Pretty good eye. Also sort of slow already? That's not a good sign. Misses a ton of pitches in A ball.  A total project. Not really the lottery ticket you want. But as a second throw in, sure!

Alex Clemmey though is the interesting piece. Big swing and miss stuff. Hard to hit. Wild. Just turned 19. This is the lottery ticket you want. He's a "#1 #2 starter" scratch off.  Sure you probably lose but in these types of trades this is what you want to get back. 

Dylan Floro for Andres Chaparo : 

Dylan Floro did well for the Nats and is exactly the type of pick-up and trade guy you want to get. Shame they didn't make him a closer to inflate that value a bit. With no bad peripherals since 2017, he's the type of guy the Nats will need next year but as an upcoming FA if the Nats want him they can try to sign him. 

Andres Chaparo is just a guy. He's hitting pretty well in the hit heavy PCL so should get a shot at some point but is a crappy fielder so he'd have to do more than just hit ok in the majors. Org depth mostly. 

I'd say not a bad haul for what they dealt. Yes the chance of a star really only falls on Alex Clemmey, but that chance plus likely a decent bench player is probably fair for a what was going out.  The Nats weren't going to get a sure fire major leaguer out of it.

Get some hits!

The Nats were no-hit yesterday completing the Padres sweep in the "never know what Nats team is going to show up" season.  They aren't good but are we going to get .500ish Nats or terrible Nats? Seriously though - it's time to stop thinking about the Nats as any sort of competitor if you are. Not this year. It's over. 

Something worrying is the Nats hitting or lack thereof.  5 shutouts in the past 30 days. They've been consistently bad and we have to see how they address it.  

What are the problems? 

Catcher - a tough one because Ruiz is under contract for a while and the alternatives aren't much better. 

First base - don't have one unless Yepez is real deal but don't believe that anymore than Wood can't hack it here. 

Outfield - can probably make do with Thomas for a couple more years but he's more likely to be a liability than a help with his average bat and below average fielding aging. 

DH - don't have one

What are the not problems?

Second base - Garcia look to be a reliable average bat if not more

Shortstop - Abrams could be a star. Probably shouldn't be at short but don't worry about that now unless you know where to put him

What are the expected kids?

Third base - House

Outfield - Wood and Crews.

A playoff run is not made from 3 question marks, as good as they might be there's a question both of how good and how fast, and two above average bats.  There are ways this can go better of course. ROY candidates and Superstar Abrams is an optimist's guess. But really they need bats. Arms? Yeah probably too but you can hold onto the first half of 2024 hope that 3 are set at least for right now. Get me bats. 

Monday Quickie - of course

Nothing teams like to do better than have a mini-run just when they sell. Doesn't mean that much for the Nats (another sweep and we'll talk) but they really did a number to the Reds.  Not sure who hates the Reds outside of someone harboring 1970s grudges but if you are - good weekend for you. 

Now it's three straight above .500 teams Padres, Cardinals, and D-backs. So 7-2? three more sweeps? 

The big thing from the weekend for me was the starting pitching both Gore getting wild enough to get pulled after 2 innings and Jake Irvin looking much better after a long rest. We'll be watching the next starts to see how this carries forward. 

Anyway I'm on vacation so we'll see how often I post. Yes yes I know. "How often do you post anyway?" Hey man! Not cool! 

Let's all agree that if Wood hits a homer I will post the next day. Make me work James. 

Into the dog days we go...

The Nats needed that break. Now they come back to face a bunch of middling teams in a row. How will it go? Who knows. The only good team they faced in the past 3 weeks was Milwaukee and that was the only team they won a series from. 

The next 10 days will be about trades. Does Finnegan go? What about Derek Law and Dylan Floro?  All are 32+ with good stats. Finnegan and Law have another year of control. What does that bring back? Who replaces them? 

Also on the block would be Jesse Winker a FA to be that proved that he is good if he can stay healthy. Not a bad bet for a team looking for only two-three months of games. Does Lane Thomas also go? On one hand he's younger with a year of control and has proven to be a consistently (slightly) above average bat. On the other he is sneaky bad defensively dampening his overall production. If they both go does that mean we see Dylan Crews? If you wait a month you don't start that clock. 

That's the set-up.  Then August and September becomes only about the kids and how they look. 

Kids that need to look better include Keibert Ruiz and Trey Lipscomb (if he doesn't want to get passed). Notice I DIDN'T say James Wood.  First time up - whatever he does outside of strike out 50% of the time and bat .050 is fine.  Ok ok he's actually almost there in Ks. He's struck out 18 of his last 43 PAs. But he makes enough hard contact to keep the average above the Mendoza line and keep the team from feeling the need to send him back down. 

Kids that need to hold on to around average include Luis Garcia, Jake Irvin, and Mitchell Parker. Guys who have settled into a nice above average usable spot that you want to see stay about there to keep new holes from forming. Garcia entered the ASB hot. Irvin and Parker not so much. And we can't just dismiss August and September if it goes poorly.  It's a third of the season! So if they do crater re-evaluation will be needed about their position. So don't! Just play about average!

Kids that need to keep pushing include Abrams and Gore. Both are playing like they could be stars for years. The Nats need stars. But the season has been up and down a bit for both which introduces some questions about how good they could be. The good news though is it's in both directions. As multi-year veterans now seeing them get a little better is what we want, but keep being this good is probably ok. Just don't have a late season swoon. 

Two weeks from ALL KIDS ALL THE TIME (and grumbling about Corbin every 5th day).

All-Star Thoughts

I've probably said this before but the All-Star Game is evergreen so why not say it again

• I think every team should have a rep. As a kid I was interested in MY guy. Yes I wanted to see stars but I saw plenty of them. They're all over the All-Star Game! Sorry your second, third or fourth best guy didn't make it. As an adult I respect that kid and kid's wishes.
• I think the All-Star Game shouldn't mean anything more than it does. The "this time it counts" era was stupid. 
• I think the leagues should go back to not playing each other which would heighten the ASG but that ship has sailed and can no longer be seen from shore (rumor has it it hit an iceberg and sunk) so I accept the ASG isn't going to mean as much.  Chase those regular season dollars though and general loss of media attention! 
• I think all the starters - even pitchers - should play the first 3 innings. Ok if a pitcher is laboring to get him out sooner - you do have a stacked pen. But none of this 3Ks first inning pull the pitcher nonsense.
• I think the manager should try to get one guy from every team an appearance. You should try to get every sub an AB and every starter coming in should go 2 IP. That will help with the next thing.
• I think the HR Derby extra inning thing is stupid and was completely ok ending the game in a tie if needed. Though it should be like a 13 inning limit or something letting you put guys back in after the 9th.  It's an exhibition, let's get a winner but we don't have to be too serious about it. The pitchers?  Look if you can't figure out how to have two starters left after 9 to just throw 2 innings a piece I don't know how you got to be a manager in the first place.
•  I still think the Future's Game alone on Sunday night makes ALL THE SENSE IN THE WORLD and random Saturday - what are you paying attention to the actual games on? - is the dumbest thing baseball does and it does a lot of dumb things. 
• I 100% think they should wear their own team uniforms for the game. This was iconic. The amount of money they squeeze from ASG merch has to be tiny, but they'd sell balls and strike calls to a sponsor for a nickel if they could. 
• I think it has to start at the time it does. Sorry East Coasters that get tired early, but the pitch clock makes it move along much better.  I suppose you could put it on Sunday and start it earlier. But on Tuesday? Nah.

Monday Quickie - State of the Nats

All-Star Break. 

Record 44-53. (73/74 win pace) 

General Feeling : Not great currently, but taking a step back pretty good.  

The Nats currently are on a pretty horrendous stretch. After nearly hitting .500 getting at 35-36 the Nats have gone 9-17. The call-up of James Wood created a hopeful mood that perhaps the Nats were going to make a play for something bigger this year but they have all but slipped from any sort of Wild Card contention and the sell-off has begun. Both Jake Irvin and Mitchell Parker have looked shaky recently as has the overworked bullpen. With Corbin being Corbin and the 5th starter being likely a rotation of AAAA hopefuls at best, it's unlikely the Nats can keep up the pitching that buoyed them for half a season.  Meanwhile the hitting looks no better today than at any other point. Wood did not immediately become a superstar and Abrams and Winker are good but not good enough to carry a lineup (few duos would be) 

Taking a step back though, it would take a continuation of this stretch through the entire remainder of the year to approach a disappointing year (they'd win like 66 games).  One good stretch will given them a solid win total. CJ Abrams and Mackenzie Gore both continued to improve looking like cornerstone players of the next potential Nats contender. James Wood dominated the minor leagues looking more and more like a safe bet to be a good, if not great, major league player and another tentpole. Jake Irvin and Mitchell Parker, while tiring now, were good for long enough to suggest one, if not both, will be rotation pieces going forward if not more. Yes Kiebert Ruiz and Josiah Gray continued to have issues and the minors beyond Wood hasn't produced another player hitting their ceilings but if you are looking for 100% of your things to go right, you are looking for something you will never find. The Nats look like a team that is ready to take another step forward. 

Will they? Well that's likely for the off-season. From here on out the only thing that could derail the general mile-high view good feeling would be injury issues. 

Speaking of good feelings for the future, the Nats traded arguably their most talented reliever, in Hunter Harvey, and got back a decent haul.  No Cayden Wallace isn't special which framing might suggest. My personal opinion is that if you hear someone called "Team's Xth best prospect" instead of "MLB's Xth best prospect" it probably means they aren't actually a real prospect. Cayden is borderline in that respect. Injured 22/23 year old (he'll be 23 in less than a month) who had real issue generating power this year in AA. But being in AA at this age is good and he's worth a look at.  Plus the Nats get a supplemental first round pick (39th). Both the player and pick probably fall into "multi-year bench player" expectations which doesn't sound like much but would be a good return for a reliever like Harvey who is as much talent as production. 

Rizzo has his flaws but he's always been a good trader, deals he makes are rarely flat out bad. So expect at least fair returns for the relievers. But do expect the relievers to go.

Slide slide slippedy slide

 Well a Wild Card was always a bit of a stretch. Especially when near .500 management was giving out all the "don't be mad when we trade guys" signals. 

Ok 2025.  Wood is here. Who's next up? 

Dylan Crews - Promoted to AAA after handling AA.  He wasn't forcing the issue as much as it was clear he could handle AA. He was consistently a good bat over almost any stretch you looked at. AAA has looked about the same - maybe a touch worse in all aspects which wouldn't be surprising this early. Not necessarily slated to make it up this year based on this. Will have to see.

Brady House - Recently promoted to AAA because... well because I think they want all these guys to come up at the same time or as close as possible. House wasn't doing much in AA and infact it seemed like the league had figured him out to an extent. He could surprise but if AAA follows AA like it did for Crews House is even less likely to need to see the majors this year. 

Cade Cavalli - setback after setback. thrown two games since coming back from his big injury and both of those starts were followed by extended time off. I don't see why you'd press this, but if he is healthy sure you'll see him.  He's been up before. 

Cole Henry - if you have news on him let me know.  Hasn't been seen since a decent rehab start a few days before June ended. I'm guessing that's a no for 2024 in the majors. 

Yohandy Morales - slow start in AA and injury. Hasn't played since May. No.  

Daylen Lile - earned a promotion to AA where he is doing ok, lots of concact but really struggling to generate any power. 

Robert Hassell - hasn't played since mid-June and was having the same power issues as last year before that

Andry Lara - up and down in AA but mostly up and probably the best healthy arm they have right now. The problem is he's young enough he hasn't built up the innings. He's about 3 starts from matching his career highs. I can't see him called up to throw an extra 30+. I wouldn't want that.

This isn't what I expected. Who could we see :

Darren Baker - He puts the ball in play and is fast so can have a decent average. Maybe. I'd feel better if he already wasn't 25.  

Orlando Ribalta - Ok not much of a "prospect" but a live arm reliever. Nats at the major league level seem adept at getting control out of these guys and if he gets it he could be really good. Although yes 26. 

Zach Brzykcy - On 40 man so that's a big help. Looked real good in Wilmington but hasn't pitched in over a week. But if he's ok I'd assume you'll see him. 

Marquis Grissom - in AA now but fits the exact build of the Nats pitching staff. Control, no homers, gets the job done. Would expect a stop in AAA but then the majors this year

What this says is 

1) Expect the relievers to get traded because if the Nats have anyone worth seeing in the majors it's other relief arms. Might as well get them some practice now. 

2) Really watch Crews, House, and the rest of the high minors guys. They need to do better over the next 6 weeks to make a call-up really make sense, although they could get it just for the experience. 

3) in general the "next wave" that will help carry the team to a WC challenge in 2025 isn't forming. That's some injury, some performance, some timing. Right now it's Wood and then... we'll see.  Lots of time left in the year though. Some strong finishes would turn this narrative around.

I am a downer

It's true. But the Nats are in a much better place then we thought they might be to start the year so that's good and it's the focus of this year. Irvin looks set. Garcia has reset. Gore is good. Wood is up. Abrams is having a potential star turn. That's a nice core. 

But the past 3 weeks have been rough. For those looking for some surprise success in 2024 the Nats are on a 7-13 slide (4-10 more recently).  It's their second extended slide of the year- they went 8-17 over almost a month May into June.  The reason they aren't reeling is between these two they had an 8-1 run, their best stretch of baseball this year. They are still technically in the playoff hunt but in a bad spot 5.5 out with one team to beat and 5 others to jump over. The Mets series could really finish that off. 

What happened? The batting has crept a little better. It's still not good but it's better. The starting pitching has been constantly decent. The culprit has been a faltering pen. Some ERAS in the last two weeks

Hunter Harvey - 12.46

Robert Garcia - 7.71

Tanner Rainey - 7.20

Dylan Floro - 6.00

Derek Law - 4.76

The reason is likely overuse. Floro is tied for 3rd in appearances, Law t6th, Harvey t19th, Garcia t33*.  This doesn't sound that bad but understand if you list the Top 30 relief pitchers in appearances you would basically expect each team to have 1. It'll differ based on SP innings but the Nats starters have been fairly strong and they are Top 10 in innings pitched. Yet the Nats have four arms in the Top ~30. This is managing to "win one everyday" with a team that should be "set up for 2025".

This is rough news for someone looking for trades to happen to boost the Nats quantity in the minors hoping to find another Thomas or Herz in the mess brought back. These guys are bringing back less than they would have 3 weeks ago. 

Time to choose for the Nats. Because if you really want to set up 2025 as best as possible with trades, that means resting these guys, taking some Ls, and getting them to look good again before the trade deadline. If you want to set up 2025 best as possible with arms in house, that means resting these guys, taking some Ls and making sure they are healthy at years end. Only if you want to press for 2024 do you keep throwing them out there 2-3-4? times over the next week.

*I used to mention the Nats were also behind in games played but they have caught up and are about average. So these numbers are fair.

Monday Quickie - take the bad with the good

James Wood is up and has been basically what you could expect he'd be right now. He's hitting (.320 average) he's walking (they are throwing him junk out of the zone to see how much he'll chase - not much is the answer) he's striking out more than he did in AAA (but not much more which is very good) and he's not hitting with much power (of course for this punchless team that marks him as like 5th best on the team and also he's hitting it hard... just not up).  It's a near perfect debut that marks him as a good major leaguer already.  We'll have to see how both the league and he handles the second time around games and the crush of a full season but all signs point positively. 

Jake Irvin DIDN'T make the All-Star team and that's probably fair. He's been good but not overwhelmingly so in a morass of about 15 guys that could have made it given different circumstances. But importantly he remains GOOD. A better than mid-rotation starter that reminds long term fans of Tanner Roark coming in and surprisingly becoming a solid pitcher for a few years. This is with the league having a full season of starts now to have a book on him. Exactly the kind of good cheap pitching stock you want to have. 

But along with the good there has been some bad and I haven't seen the balance in thinking about it.  When Nick Senzel was hitting early on (he had 5 homers in his first 10 games) and had a reasonable average through the first week in May, Nats fans talked of him as another secret get. Look at Rizzo go!  But he's been terrible for two months hitting to a .589 OPS* and got DFA'd. Where was the Rizzo made a mistake talk? Lost. Rizzo is doing the same thing he's done the past couple years, dragging in these bodies and hoping for something to happen. Candelario and Winker worked out. Far more didn't.  There isn't skill here. Just quantity. 

When DJ Herz threw a couple high K no walks games articles came out about how the Nats young pitching was amazing and look at all these arms. Not mentioned was how Herz stunk in pretty much every other start. Now he's been sent down. There won't be talk, except here, about how the Nats SP is not robust but still pretty thin going into next year. Parker looks more like a 5 every time he goes out there** able to keep the ball in the zone but unable to make it hard for guys to put it over the fence.

If this is really about 2025 keep your head on straight. I've been seeing people riding the highs and not regarding the lows. That can be dangerous, especially for a team that's 43-47 and only nominally in the playoff hunt. What you want is to ID the issues and pound on the team to address them in the off-season. Don't get lost in the idea that Rizzo can find another Winker (instead of the Senzel, Gallo, Rosario, looking like Ramirez) or that Herz will be another Irvin (instead of Adon or Rutledge or Tetreault)

2025 people! Eyes on the prize!

*means he's not walking, hitting for power or hitting for average. 

**but if he can repeat this as a 5 that's fine. I'll take that. But that does leave two spots empty. A true ace would be nice or else you need a couple of other real solid arms because that's what the Nats have gotten pretty much this year from Williams, Parker's start, some random other games by Herz and Corbin.

Happy James Wood Day

James Wood is finally arriving in a Nats uniform. The wait has not been long but it has been much anticipated.  Unlike when the Nats traded Trea and Max - when the Nats traded Soto they were giving up a super young player, still possibly getting better, with two plus years of control left. The return needed to be team rebuilding good. CJ Abrams (hot again) and Mackenzie Gore (rough outing last time) both seem to be All-Star caliber players with the ability to be true superstars. The issue with them is that the clock had already started ticking on them when they were traded. Gore will start costing a lot next year, Abrams in 2026 and talk of if their future is in DC will start over the same sooner than you think time frame. Younger and with Nats full control Robert Hassell and Jarlin Susana have both seen potential careers stymied by various injuries. That leaves James Wood as the true team carrier. The guy who will be here through the decade whose stardom or non-stardom could determine the decisions of the franchise moving forward. 

Trading him was a gamble for the Padres.  He was a Top 100 prospect who was crushing the ball in A ball at 19.  Granted High A and AA are both big transitions but he had everything you would want in a player. As long as his strikeouts didn't get out of hand he should be at least a solid major leaguer. 2023 was a mixed bag on that he easily progressed past High A but in AA the strikeout totals did get to him going over 33%. That does give one pause as it can't get too much higher and allow you to remain a viable hitter. And it would almost certainly get higher in the majors so an immediate call-up to start 2024 seemed very unlikely despite a super hot finish to his season. 

Indeed he didn't start with the major league team but he did start in major league camp and played most of Spring Training with the big league club. He crushed the ball getting everyone excited and making everyone forget the cardinal rule that Spring Training stats are meaningless. Well, not everyone. The Nats did send him back down to make him prove it in AAA. He quickly did. He looked on course for a major league debut but a mild injury put him on the bench for three weeks. Picking up right where he left off Wood crushed AAA pitching as he did all year. Most importantly his strike outs were way down. With no possible indication Wood wasn't ready for the majors he got the call. 

 At the plate there is a minor concern - if you want him to hit his ceiling which is "Aaron Judge but debuting at 22 not 25" - that his effort to cut down strikeouts has taken some of his power. That's probably true but something I'd expect to come back as he adjusts to the majors. The power talent didn't go anywhere.  He can still hit the ball extremely hard. It just may take a couple of years to adjust to the pitching here and figure out how to balance making contact and hitting for power. 

He's said to be a fast runner and a great fielder, capable of playing CF but destined for a corner OF spot. In part that's because his size suggests growing and slowing into that spot, but really because Dylan Crews, another Nats OF prospect could take that spot. Or Jacob Young, who currently occupies CF is a top of the game fielder. 

Really the concern for Wood would be injury. He's such a big player (6'7") that you put more stress on the body playing this game everyday. The only caveat on Judge's fine career is the fact he's heading for only his 4th full season in 8 years. Is Wood destined for the same sort of injury-riddled career? Being younger helps but the key is more avoiding those leg injuries that simply can't be worked around.*

What can the Nats expect from Wood this year?  Who knows. Guys like Jackson Holliday show moving up to the majors is not simply a step-up. I've said this before but the majors aren't just AAAA, they are a superleague where everyone better than AAA is forced to play together. These are everyone from guys at AAA that are just needed to fill spots to guys that would be in a theoretical AAAAA league if that existed. With all that talent here you'll be facing a bunch of guys a couple steps better than you've seen. It's hard to exactly pin down what will happen.

Regardless of whether he is immediately great, or needs to be sent down for more seasoning, this is a big deal. This is the next chapter for the Nats. It starts here. From here you will see more kids. From here you will discuss the re-signing of the next set of young players the Nats are relying on - Garcia, Abrams, Gore. From here we'll find out if and how competitive the Nats will be for the second half of this decade. Let's go!

*that's mostly why Judge has lasted. A bit of knee strain in the minors but the rest of his injuries are a mix mostly oblique, broken hand, a busted toe but from running into the wall, a calf, but no bad knees or bad feet flashing red light warning signs.