ASB P1 - Are the Nationals for real and can they make a run for the playoffs?

We have rounded the crest of the season are are heading into the dog days where seasons for all but the worst teams are won or lost. The Nationals have shown themselves clearly not to be one of the worst teams so what does the next month have in store for them? Well it boils down to the two answers above. 

Are the Nationals for real?   Yes.  They have finally been caught for the most R/G in baseball (by the Pirates!  Someone go back so I can make that bet) but they have a very healthy lead on most of the other teams in baseball.  Sixth is the Twins nearly a half-run back. The questions from earlier in the season remain, Can Wood keep this up for an entire season? Does CJ have an extended slump in him? Is Ruiz really this good? But 95 games in it looks like the answers are Yes, No, and good enough.  Add to that Luis Garcia developing a power swing and Curtis Mead being a perfectly decent Joey Meneses, Mike Morse "found this guy who can only hit for 1-3 years of help" and you have a Top 5 in the Nats lineup that can literally hang with any teams.  The bottom four isn't as fun but Lile and Vivas are livable and Nunez and Young have made themselves not terrible in exchange for their plus defense. Is the bench pretty much a horror show? Yeah, but that's the understandable cost of not actually building the team for this year. Your main set-up can be solid but there's nothing behind it. 

When you have the best offense in baseball you can challenge for .500 even if you have the worst pitching and that's a good thing because the Nats might have the worst pitching. While they are only 3rd they are behind two bad teams playing in weird situations (Rockies and Athletics) that effect their results. The Nats "weird situation" is that they don't want to put anything toward getting better. On the mound the Nats are hanging on by their fingernails. Cavalli looks fine, not an ace, but likely able to be relied on in a #2/#3 role. Foster Griffin's great results are living on borrowed time but he should also be rotation worthy.  The rest of the pack is a group of "let's see what we get from this guy tonight" guys. You can't rely on these guys but the alternatives are worse.  Almost every team throws one of these guys out there, most two. Three is a little much but this rotation is still enough to get into the playoffs with that offense. We all know the starting pitching isn't the issue. 

The Nats relief pitching is among the worst in baseball and the ERA has been pushing 6.00 for the past couple months. You don't necessarily need a deep pen with this offense, just a reliable 3 man set that can hold leads late. The Nats don't have even that.  Andrew Alvarez is possibly the best arm, but he's been forced into game start duties leaving his innings high and making him unavailable for late relief. That literally left Orlando Ribalta and Brad Lord as your go to guys, two arms best suited to be the 3rd man in that reliable 3rd man set. Poulin might be decent enough against lefties and right now that's it. Your "three man set" is two guys who might occasionally be able to do it and a guy you can sort of trust against lefties.  And if these guys are tired or hurt (Lord is currently out) or otherwise unavailable? You have absolute trash. Like the Nats offensive bench this is the cost of not trying for the year but why the initial pen was so bad? That was a choice. 

And worse for Nats fans, it's a choice that we haven't heard word one of changing from the men in charge. The Nats aren't really trying and they aren't going to start. The powerful offense is a great thing to see making this season interesting but it's only applicable in respects of the decisions made for upcoming years or this year's trade deadline. 

To answer the questions from the title - Yes the Nationals are for real but no they can't make a run for the playoffs. And the reason for the no is because the front office doesn't have interest in doing that this year. 

What does that mean for next year? It depends on the decisions they make particularly with Abrams and Garcia. Abrams is likely to be kind of this good going forward (and also a continued liability at SS). Garcia is still young enough that this power burst could be for real, but it also just might be a career year for a guy that's more an average bat.  Still they are two bats you'd want for a team looking at 2027. At the same time the Nats have a solid top of bats in the minors.  Willits, King, Fitz-Gerald, Cruz are all solid prospects with Willits being one of the top ones in baseball. The quantity is there to potentially trade Abrams and/or Garcia away to bolster the Nats future pitching depth which currently relies on Jarlin Susana and the TJ recovery of Travis Sykora. But if they do deal these guys away what it means for next year is that there isn't a next year, or at least there won't be a real challenge for the playoffs then either. 2027 will be moving guys up and seeing what they got and figuring out how to put that playoff team together for 2028. 

Monday Quickie - back from vacation

 The Nats are where they have been now for a while which is fun and good because where they are is "about .500 and in the playoff discussion".  

About a month ago we talked about the playoffs and while we'll go over that deeper in a week during the ASB I want to look at my assumptions about the other teams to see how they held up. If so, it's likely worth checking them out again the same way at that time. 

 

Gap would grow between the Nats and Braves/Dodgers/Brewers

Was 11.5 behind ATL, 8.5 behind MIL, 8.5 behind LAD 

Now 7.5 behind ATL, 10.5 behind MIL,  13 behind LAD

Well the one that matters I was wrong. Basically the rest of June was a horror show for the Braves going 4-13 to end the month. They've picked it back up recently and I still think I'm basically right in my call here that these are just better teams. 

Cardinals and Phillies are likely no worse than Nats, catchable but likely to hold lead

Was 3 behind STL, 2.5 behind PHI

Now 3 behind STL, 4.5 behind PHI

PHI has shown that the horrible start was just that and they are a perfectly decent team. That plus the general advantages should keep them ahead of the Nats depending on trade deadline machinations, injuries, and general luck 

Arizona and San Diego are worse than Nats and definitely catchable 

Was 1 game behind ARI, 1 game behind SDP

Now  1 game ahead of ARI, 1 game ahead of SDP

Yep, these guys aren't as good. 

Cubs and the Pirates are better than the Nats and might widen tiny gap 

Was 0.5 games behind PIT, 0.5 games behind CHC

Now tied with PIT, 4.5 games behind CHC. 

One team proved me right with the Cubs big push in June ending the month 14-4.  The Pirates seemed more on par with the Nats when they faced. 

Cincy is a mirage, but maybe the Marlins are real? 

Was 2 games ahead of CIN, 2.5 games ahead of the Marlins

Now  4 games ahead of CIN, 3 games BEHIND the Marlins

Well look at that. Marlins are on a 23-8 run currently while whatever luck Cincy had has petered out. 

 

The short of it - yeah those assumptions mostly held up. Really only one team surprised from what I was thinking and that was the Braves. Most did exactly what the numbers said they would and the others didn't stray that far. So yeah worth while to look again, see what has changed and where the Nats fit. But that's for a couple weeks. 

The Nats have a good run into and out of the ASB. Into it's the middling Astros, the Yankees who can't hit without Judge and he isn't expected back before the ASG, and the bad A's. Out of it it's the bad Rockies and the middling Dbacks and Blue Jays. If they really are contenders for a playoff spot they'll take these 18 games and go like 11-7, 12-6. Tread water and trades of good players and a crash out to end 2026 seems more likely 

 

Ok that was all bad

The question now is - do they do something about it? 

The Nats pen has been known to be bad. They currently have the second worst ERA in the majors at 5.05 and yes it was a little better before this series but it was still well ensconced in the bottom group of teams, ahead of the Twins. They've giving up the third most walks (172) and by FAR the most home runs (61).  To be fair they've been asked to pitch way more than any other team.  Their 392 innings is 10% more than the 3rd place Mets. That doesn't sound like much but trust me it is. 

So it IS connected to the starting pitching.  In order to save the arms of a perfectly average starting pitching staff they are throwing fewer innings. Which then go to a bad relief staff. 

So one correction is right there in front of the Nats. Time to take the training wheels off and let the starters go 6+ innings if they can.  But that still doesn't solve the problem that by the fancy stats they Nats have one good reliever (Alvarez) and two ok ones (Lord, Ribalta).  Beyond that Beeter and Schultz are currently usable and the rest are trash. And the depth is worse. There is no real help expected to come from the minors. 

It's unlikely the starters can be as good pitching longer but it's also known that the relievers aren't good pitching as much as they have.  The Nats have let it go because they've won enough early to just accept it, but if they want to really win they need to fix the problem

Which then begs the question : do they really want to win in 2025?

My guess is no so while some relievers might be available out there, I don't think we'll see them here. These are your 2026 Nats. These are the results they will get. Buckle up. 

OK that was bad

Baseball, huh? 

The crazy part wasn't the loss. A two out single and homer meant the game was tied and going into extras it's basically anyone's game. No the crazy part was with two outs the Phillies went :

Single - Homer - Single - Single - Homer - Walk - Single - Double - Walk - Single 

They didn't just bat around - after two outs they batted around and no one got out. Forget the runs, I just want to know the last time 10 straight men made it on base safely in a game. 

It also kind of stinks that Ribalta was looking good and probably could have handled the 8th (or at least deserved a shot) but they have a plan and that plan in their head that said Lovelady into Beeter. They want that 8-9 set up because it makes things easier. Even if it's probably not better, there is something to be said for roles being known for clubhouse headspace and all. But they failed and Lord and Schultz both pitched so they won't be exactly fresh for tonight and the Phillies will have seen them once - which as we saw with Lord and Beeter tonight - makes a difference.  WIll it matter? Better hope it's the rarer good Mikolas that shows up tonight. 

The Nats get Nola tonight and Sanchez tomorrow which you can't feel is in your favor.  Rolling through a 4 game set with the Phillies and not getting both Wheeler and Sanchez demands you take 2 of 3 from the other guys.  It's 1-1 right now. 

Monday Quickie - is this worrying?

 On May 22nd the Nats were 25-27 and looking like they were going to stay in that area - flirting with .500, maybe going a game or two over but likely dropping back under - for the rest of the year. That had been the story of the season after the 3-1 start, and fit with the pre-season expectations mixed with what we were seeing on the field. But since then they've gone 15-8 and have put themselves squarely in the "huh, we need to check in on these guys before the All-Star Break and see how real they are".   But it's not all good news. 

On May 22nd the Nats were in 3rd place in the NL East. 11 games behind ATL, 1 game behind PHI, 2 games ahead of MIA.

On June 22nd the Nats are tied for 3rd place in the NL East. 9 games behind ATL, 2.5 games behind PHI, and tied with the Marlins. 

They are undoubtedly in a better position today than a month ago.  They were 4.5 games out of the 3rd Wild Card while today they are a half-game out, but there isn't an NL East team they've played more than twice. If the NL East is really this solid there are a lot of hard games coming. They'll play 4 more against Philly this week then it's NL East free until August where they'll cram all the rest of their inter-division games into the last two months. 

The tendency is to sort of say - hey the Phillies aren't real and the Marlins REALLY aren't real but how does that apply to them and not the Nationals?

The Phillies stats suggest their record should be a lot lower, but taking a closer look at it, it's more that when they stood at 13-19 to start May they should have been like 10-22 or worse. The recent Phillies have been scoring runs and pitching well. 

The Marlins stats suggest they should be a LOT better. Like one of the B-Tier teams in baseball behind the Yankees, Brewers and Dodgers. What they have is a lineup with no obvious low points (hey Nasim! What are you doing here? And you brought Jose today? How relevant!) and a very solid pitching staff that is deep with maybe the best bullpen in baseball.*

At this point we are taking the Nats to be real so we have to do the same for these other teams. Which means we have to move forward thinking if the Nats are going to compete for a Wild Card, it'll be a dog fight within their own division and someone is likely to be left out if that's the case. 

 

*Fun fact?  The Marlins have the best inherited runner scoring % at 22%. The Nats have the worst at 44%. 

Foster Griffin - the actual find?

There was an article somewhere recently about the turn around for Littell and Mikolas.  I kind of dismiss that because major league pitchers aren't going to go out there and throw like trash for 30 games. There are ups and downs and adjustments and injuries and chances are if you started slow you'll look better. I don't pretend those guys aren't what they are. 

But Foster Griffin was a pull from overseas. A former 1st rounder that couldn't control anything that now is mixing like 8 different pitches for success.  Is he real?

I want to say yes but that HR rate is what's keeping me from doing that. Giving up a homer plus every game is not a recipe for success.  His last 5 homers have been solo shots where as that was more like half his early homers. Yes he's keeping guys off base with limited walks, but his hit rate isn't that great and that first set makes more sense to me. 

What's that mean?  It means that we should be looking at a future around where his ERA was before this solo shot barrage.  4.00ERA+.  But hey - that's STILL a find. 

I don't mean OMG they found a star, but they did grab a cheap guy that isn't just filling in innings at the back of the rotation. An ERA of say 4.15  puts him around the 75th best starter in the game. That's a legit 3/4 type arm. 

Littell and Mikolas are rotation fillers. Don't think that isn't important. Having a slight turnaround from "maybe they should quit baseball" to "ok as a 5" is important for the Nats because the bullpen is so bad. An inning more of under 5.00 ERA ball matters to this team. But maybe you can dredge this up from the minors or any rando free agent. That's what they did this year and the last few (Irvin, Parker). Finding a guy you need in your rotation or else you take a big hit is something else. And I think Griffin is that guy

Monday Quickie - Under the radar time

 Sometimes a team just needs to be left to do what they are doing with no scrutiny.  There isn't a real tell if the Nats are that type of team but it is clear they have been working out of the spot light for longer they might have in a typical sports year.  However this year we had a NY title in basketball with all those stars out, we had a crazy start to the Stanley Cup, and now we have the World Cup going on.  In baseball the best teams are the Braves, Dodgers and Yankees (and yes the Brewers).  The media air has been sucked out of the room. The Nats aren't on anyone's mind.

Let's put it some other baseball ways.  

The Mets spent a ton and are almost certainly playing themselves out of the playoffs. The Red Sox might be the 2nd worst team in baseball (probably not and the Rockies aren't going to let anyone take the worst title from them). The Pirates with Paul Skenes are in the thick of the playoff hunt. The White Sox are leading the AL Central.  The WHITE SOX.   

The aforementioned Skenes has a 2.85 ERA and 100Ks already and who cares.  Cam Schlitter has a 1.82 ERA, as does Christopher Sanchez who shut out teams for 5 games in a row.  Both are looking up at Jacob Misiorowski who might be breaking through the media ceiling a bit by having a 1.34 ERA and 131 strikeouts while throwing the ball regularly well over 100 MPH over his starts. And all this while Shohei in his starts just went over 1.00 ERA.

It's not hitting like it might have hit in 2025.  

So if the Nats ARE a team that need a little peace and quiet to keep going, they have it for a few more weeks.  

We are two weeks into June.  Keibert isn't hitting as he was but he's hitting fine.  CJ isn't hitting like a star but he's hitting ok. Mead isn't hitting anymore but it's not embarrassing.  And in their place Lile is hitting and Garcia is hitting and most importantly Wood is a superstar again. .281 with 20 homers and almost 60 walks.  He's going to hit 40 plus homers. He's is leading all NL Players in Offensive WAR*, and is in a battle with Alvarez in Houston for best bat in baseball this year. Carrying this team. 

The pitching is not better but they are also covering for themselves with better play here and there.  Sure it just keeps them at "pretty bad" but with the offense as it is, that's all it needs to be. 

The Nats are doing what they are doing and aren't stopping just yet.  Take notice, even if everyone else isn't. 

*Pete C-A is hitting pretty well and plays amazing defense, and of course you aren't going to catch Shohei in WAR unless you pitch 

Are playoffs a possibility?

I don't see the Nats as a .500 team on talent. 

BUT here they are. Which begs the question for me - maybe this is a season where this level of talent gets you to .500. And there are seasons where .500 ish can get you to the playoffs.  Does this seem like a good fit for 2026? 

Currently the Nats are a game out of the Wild Card, behind two teams and slightly ahead of... well most of the NL. What do the adjusted standings (trying to take luck out of what happened so far) tell us? You can choose which one you like but looking at the various projectsion the Nats are where they are supposed to be.  Maybe a touch more 33-34 than 34-33 but let's not quibble.  We talked about why I think they'll end up a little below that but what about the other teams.  Is the NL East weirdly underperforming? The NL in general? I can't really say that  as you'd expect with groups that big it looks like a mixed bag.  So there's not a good reason to think luck will swing for the Nats opponents. 

What about though the ones that matter - the ones in the playoffs? The idea here is the Nats look to be pretty stable.  If someone ahead of them has a worse projected record than the Nats they might fall past them. On the other hand someone chasing the Nats could catch them if the numbers say they've been unlucky. 

The Braves, Dodgers, Brewers are all out of reach as expected. Things can change but right now they are better than the Nats and have a better record. The gap should grow, not shrink. 

The Cardinals and Phillies are in and based on these numbers are catchable. The Cardinals aren't better than the Nats, but aren't worse. Their advantage is simply being where they are right now. The Nats have to catch them. The Phillies are more in danger, powered to their record by a 14-5 one-run game record as opposed to the stats. The Nats have a good shot of catching Philly if they play like they have this year. The question there is do you take the year as a whole or ignore the terrible start?  If you put that behind the Phillies, they probably are in the Cardinals area - not great but good enough to hold that advantage. 

Arizona and San Diego, tied for the 3rd spot right now. Both look worse than the Nats for the season. Not a bad chance to catch them at all. They do get to feast on the Rockies though. 

Just ahead of the Nats are the Cubs and Pirates. This may be where the problem lies for the Nats. These two look like teams that should do much better. So while the Phillies, D-Backs, and Padres might flub the last two WC spots, it's the Cubs and Pirates who'd the numbers say you should bet on. 

Behind the Nats are Cincy and the Marlins.  Cincy appears to be a mirage even at this modest record. The Marlins though... are kind of real? This is weird.  I don't know.  I can believe in James Wood / CJ Abrams MVP pair a lot easier than Xavier Edwards / Otto Lopez. But I think the Marlins, real or not, are in the same sort of fragile boat the Nats are. There isn't obvious depth.  If one key guy goes down it could get ugly. There's a lot of variance here, too much for me to say, yeah they'll catch the Nats. 

Finally there's the Mets, not buried far enough to be out of it, but they haven't been good and something would have to change for this team to catch the Nats. It certainly could but the numbers so far suggest lots of other possibilities first. 

So looking at the way the season has gone so far. The Nats have been a .500 team and if they can keep that up they COULD make the playoffs but it's likely they'd be the first or second team out. It's not out of the realm of possibility though.  We'll see how this all changes around the All-Star break. 

What about the pitching?

The pitching - well it's not very good but we can't just go ahead and make assumptions that it'll stay that way.  Maybe it will get better! (or worse!) 

About a month ago I looked at the starters and tried to figure out who was "real" there. I said Irvin could be a poor innings eater and Litell really was bad.  Well May has not been kind to Irvin.  He might have broke. On the other hand Litell looked much better. I said I didn't know about Miles and I still don't. Mikolas has been a weird mixed bag, shutting down ATL for 5 then two starts later getting pounded by MIA. I do think we still don't know what this guy is from capable mid-rotation guy to coaching high school baseball. I said Foster Griffin wasn't an ace (he's not) and Cavalli should be better (he has been) 

I think it means the starting pitching can maintain it's current "not very good but maybe good enough not to drag the team down" trajectory. Cavalli is an actual not back of the rotation major league starter.  Four the rest of the four, I'd say something decent is there each time around from Litell, Griffin, Mikolas, and the last spot while also two not so decent things and a bad thing. That's a below average rotation but one that 2 out of every 5 days is good enough and you might get lucky another 2 with this offense. 

The relief pitching hasn't been good either and there's a decent argument it should get worse with Schultz, Lovelady, and Beeter seeing important innings and all should get worse based on stats. To me though if Varland, Lord, and Ribalta are real that's enough to hold down your wins. 

Again we're not looking for the pitching staff to win, we're looking for them to hold place.  They are currently one of the worst staffs in baseball but not the complete drag the Cubs or Giants rotations are.  I think they can hold that. The relief staff is decidedly belwo average but not game losing... I think they might be a little worse that that actually. Just more guys who are doing better than you'd expect. Maybe you can dial that in.  It's hard to say because if one position is still in the "it's early" stage - it's relief pitching. A couple bad outings for a guy who throws 17 innings can really screw things up.  So while I THINK they might be worse than that, it's what I'm least confident about. 

Where does this leave the Nats as a team?  

I think it's a team who's bats and staff are both a little overperforming.  They've basically earned their .500 record 62 games in but I'd be surprised if they matched it in the final 100.  But also 40-60 would be a surprise.  45-55 makes more sense to me which puts this at a 76 win team. Is that good enough? 

I think cooling down right now might be best because people were getting excited in a "playoffs maybe possibly, if I squint my eyes?" way and that was an overreach. That isn't this team. I think what will get people properly excited is if the season ends with kids like King and Morales up and looking good and a sensible pitching plan for 2027 that isn't "find what scraps you can put behind Cavalli" 

Can the rest of the team keep hitting?

We took at look at James and CJ but there are seven other guys who make up the line-up. While stars can do a lot, they can't carry a dead two innings at the plate.  So the question is can these guys keep doing what they are doing? 

We'll start with two easy ones - Can Luis Garcia hit about average?  Sure!  Since 2022 that's what he's done so no reason to think the 26 year old is going to be any different now.  Can Nasim Nunez still stink? Sure! There's a reason the slick-fielding SS was available in the Rule V draft.  They never thought he could hit at the major league level. And he's proving them right. I suppose he could be worse, but for now we'll leave it as a yes - he can maintain a .200 BA with some walks and zero power. 

Ok what about the other 5+? We'll start with the three regulars from the start of the year. Lile, Young and Ruiz. 

Daylen Lile - the kid has taken a step back from last year when he played well enough to send Crews back to the minors and have Nats fans thinking maybe they found a star. Fans keep doing that.  Lile is hitting across the board worse and well we don't know what's coming next. It could be adjustments from him or it could be further adjustments from the other teams to really put him down.  Your first time up is a lot of "can you handle major league stuff".  The answer from Lile was yes. The next step is "can you handle major league PITCHING". The difference is instead of "Here's my fastball.Try to hit it" is the other team now tries to pitch to certain spots or in certain order. They know they can't get by with no effort.  Lile is sort of holding his own but also had a worse May than April so I'm not sure. I think he won't ever be a Nunez (who can't handle major league stuff) but could he slip under average? Possible. Jury is still out on a kidwith 100 major league games under his belt

Jacob Young - he's a glove first guy and whatever the Nats get from him at the plate is a bonus... assuming he's not terrible. Last year he was pretty close to that. He does not hit the ball very hard so before this year his game was hit it on the ground and leg it out. That works until it doesn't and "it doesn't" seemed to be 2025.  In 2026 he's lifting the ball more and hitting it a touch harder and the combination is getting him more non-legged out hits. As this is not based on anything crazy, I think he can keep this up. He's a slightly below average hitter and I think that holds.

Keibert Ruiz - I'd love to say yes, but the numbers don't back that up. He IS hitting better. Ruiz was always a guy that could hit the ball - he doesn't walk, he doesn't K, he hits the ball square. But he's also a slow catcher so if he doesn't generate power all this means is a lot of ground outs. This year he's getting the ball up and hitting it harder. More hits, more XBH, fewer ground ball outs.  But the numbers aren't too far different from 2022/2023. The differences really are - nothing soft and massive amounts of pull. I just don't see Keibert Ruiz .280+  20 HR hitter here.  I do think though he can land at an averageish level. Which would be good, but would also slow the offense down. 

And the others?  Mead, Tena, Vivas, Crews, House? 

Crews still looks bad so sure he can do that. I'd honestly expect him to do better eventually but these numbers suggest more time in AAA rather than helping out the Nationals. 

House was approaching average and I would have said yes, but the team seems to think no bc they sent him back down so what do I know. I'm not going against them 

Vivas, like these two and Lile, just don't have a lot of major league at bats to feel sure about anything.  He stunk in his first year up in 2024 but that seems like a fair amount of bad luck.  I don't think he's this decent, but he's probably closer to this than that. Maybe a half step worse? Stats really don't like him so I'll guess I'll settle there. 

Tena is someone that has done what none of these other guys have. He's really swinging the bat faster. But he's trading a bit more power for more Ks and fewer walks. He's been about this "playable below average" for a while now.  No reason to say he can't keep it up. The real question for DH is when do we see some of the kids who look like they can actually hit. 

Mead is probably then what things hinge on going forward. It sounds weird to say that but what do we have so far? Garcia, Lile, Young, Ruiz, Tena sitting around average, if you made me guess I'd go below rather than above. Nunez stinking. That's could work ok in a lineup with a couple of stars but you really do need one more bat here to be good. Wiemer was that bat to start but that was always just a lucky break from a journeyman.  Mead... Mead was a legit prospect who was always expected to hit. He just didn't. He swung the bat hard but couldn't connect in the right way and that made him press a little taking away from what was in the minors a keen eye with good contact.  But it seems to all be coming together now. I'm not going to say he can keep it up but also I'm not going to say he can't keep up something close. The numbers are that good. 

 

The end result of a look at the other guys is probably a full step back. As might be expected with the team unexpectedly doing so well, you have guys outperforming where they should be. The good news is though there's a lot of ok talent here - enough to fill in the gaps - and with the possible return of "average Ruiz" you really are just looking for a couple big bats. Yes that could be expensive and all but you do have them here in Abrams and Mead... maybe. 

I think where we come down is - Wood will keep rocking (probably unless he gets tired), the bulk of the lineup will do slightly worse but  not enough to keep the line-up from being above average. How much above average lands with CJ and Mead.  If these guys can hit like stars for the season, you have your Top 3 lineup carrying the below average staff. If they can't it's more around average. My take from the numbers says they can't BUT also not like in a "going to collapse" way. More like dropping down to slightly above average. Good enough to be fun. Probably not good enough to keep the team over .500.  For that they'll need some pitching help. 

Can Wood and Abrams fight for an MVP?

 Yesterday I said the team was doing as well as it was because they had two MVP candidates in the lineup and everything else followed. Let's see where they stand today 

Wood : .276 / .413 / .551  14 2B, 15 homers, 9 SB (1CS), 46 BBs, 77Ks 

Abrams :  .289 / .381 / .542, 11 2B, 2 3B, 12 HR, 7 SB (4CS), 25BBs, 47Ks

Let's start with Wood because he's pretty easy.  

In 2024 when Wood broke onto the scene with an impressive half season debut, he was close to perfect at the plate. It's clear he identifies strikes well and, when he can make contact, crushes the ball.  2025 felt like a step back but only because there were two Woods. First half Wood was an MVP candidate as well hitting .278 / .381 / .534 with 24 homers. But he began to peter out with a slump early in June and a more extended one from late June into the ASB. He struck out a bunch more and didn't get the lift on balls that he did in the first half cutting his power. The slump continued right after the break and he didn't get back into form until the last week of the season. Without going into the pitching faced a combination of opponent approach and general tiredness playing his first true full season probably explains some of it.  

This season not much is different than last other than everything he was "one of the best" at he's now "Maybe number one" at. The only thing he continues to have issues with is making contact but this is often the trade-off for power hitters and one you take. 

I don't see any approach reason why Wood can't continue to do what he's doing for longer. You can't change your pitching approach too much because he doesn't chase. If we look at 2025 there was a subtle shift further down and away, which seems counter-intuitive to a guy with his reach who hits the ball away regularly but maybe it worked and we'll probably see something like that again. Still I think the real question is stamina and conditioning. Wood is a big guy and in the traditional tall lanky guy aging into a bigger body. It's a conditioning issue he'll have his whole life. What we want to see is how he, and the new org, try to work through it.  At 23 I think seeing if it's just a young player getting into major league workload is the right move. Normal sized guys have the same issues. But the second half of this season could be telling on this front.  If it is something his body needs to work past it could mean a workload that sits at 140 games a year. But a maybe problem for 2027. For now the question is can he keep doing this and the answer for me is "yes, until proven otherwise" 

 

Abrams is a bit more of a unknown.  While he improved from 2022-2024 becoming a decent major league hitter, last year was a lateral move. He didn't improve and settled in as a guy hitting .260 with little patience and moderate power. Not bad, but certainly nowhere near MVP.  What changed? A lot more walks and better contact.  

The walks appear to be a bit of an him approach change - a bit more grip and rip like Wood - but mostly one from the other teams.  He's facing few pitches in the zone, likely in his settled clean-up role with a kid behind him, pitchers are choosing to face the next guy and Abrams is letting them. When he is getting his pitch he hitting it much better but he's not hitting it harder.  Instead he's hitting them... well right.  Hard and at the right angles for the best hits. But again he's not hitting everything harder.  He hasn't improved his angles all that much in general. This is what you'd expect in a sense. X % harder, X% better means something like X%*X% harder and better. But instead he's just having more of these particular good events. 

That leaves this more of a question and it doesn't help that he has a history of absolutely torrid stretches followed by long stretches of stinking. Hitting this well isn't new for him. Hell he's hit better, though for not as long. Hitting well for multiple months isn't new either - he started last year well.  It's sustaining through a full season that would be new and with no real evidence anything has changed if you gave me a dollar I'd bet on some decent regression here. Guys who hit this well in terms of power usually hit the ball a little harder. The saving grace for Abrams is well he's 25 and at this age you get better sometimes. 

 

If Abrams can't maintain MVP status that doesn't mean he's no good, but it does mean to maintain "maybe best offense in baseball" pace that covers for pretty questionable pitching, the other guys will have to pick things up.  Can they? 

Tuesday Quickie : Ok we're here

It's Memorial Day weekend and we're going to be looking at guys with the idea that what we're seeing could be real. Which means, by proxy, we're going to be looking at the Nats with the idea what we're seeing could be real and that means .500 could be real. 

To be fair this all basically hinges on two players. CJ Abrams and James Wood have been two of the Top 10 offensive players in baseball this year.  If the Nats have two MVP candidates in their lineup then .500 is possible because the rest of the lineup isn't great - but it's good enough. And the pitching isn't good - but it's not bad enough to make a team with a two-MVP offense a loser. And more importantly the pitching has been healthy.  That may not seem like much but when the pitching is not good, the pitching behind it is usually pretty bad. The Nats starters have all made 11 starts this year. The carefully controlled Nats relief core has five guys with 15 or more appearances. The dam is leaky and worrisome but has not broken. 

While we dive deeper into all of this that's the basic truth.  The Nats, who as a random chance thing should be lucky to have one, have two of the best players at the plate this season. The rest of the squad just has to be average ish and that's pretty much what they are (except for Nunez) for that offense to sing. The pitching just has to be not as bad as the offense is good to get to .500. That's the balance they are maintaining right now.

Crews up House down and other things

While the Nats have been pretty relatively successful this season so far at the plate , they are not sitting on their laurels. Yesterday they officially sent Brady House down and optioned Joey Weimer to make room for Dylan Crews and Andres Chaparro to come up.  Why?  Well sort of because Jacob Young got hit by a pitch. 

On Monday Jacob Young took a pitch to the ribs. It was apparently pretty bad and he's nursing some bruised ribs. Jacob defensively is the glue that holds the OF together. Lile, although showing a little better this year, is not seen as a great defender. Wood, despite that speed shown off by his inside the park HR, is just bad. Young is one of the better CF in the game and can help compensate for these issues a bit, important for a team already struggling with defense. The Nats 4th OF had been Joey Weimer but he's no CF so the Nats had to dig into the minors. 

Crews is the guy they WANT to be here as a star and he is generally seen as a gifted fielder. After a slow start in the minors, he was hitting much better over the past few weeks - something close to .300 / .370 / .525.  The warning signs of a ton of Ks and limited BBs are still there but he'd only have to keep this up for a week or two more for you to really start thinking about giving him another shot.  Fate made that shot now. Joey Weimer had gone the other way hitting .160 in limited at bats with no homer since April 22nd.  He was always a long shot to be good so this was an easy call. 

But what about House and Chaparro?  That's a little harder to figure. House had not turned the corner this season so far, but he had been better especially in the power department. But he still wasn't swinging well, relying on just swinging hard and the occasional right guess to keep production up.  To make matters worse he was a big negative in the field, a surprise after last years modest performance. So you could see the reasoning behind sending him down.  Let the new org AAA guys get a better look at him and see if they can get him swinging better and his mind back on his glove. The problem is there really isn't a great replacement.  Chaparro was doing modestly well in AAA and is historically just passable at fielding. The must have really wanted House down to send him down because Chappy up is just a roster move. 

 There is of course the specter of roster time manipulation here. If you ARE going to have guys down, teams try to do it in a way that earns them an extra year of cheap service.  If you look at it broadly it rarely matters - they are manipulating guys that usually don't end up stars so any money saved is minimal - but all it really needs is to matter one time. Again - not my money, and they can afford to spend whatever given appreciation of sales prices, so don't do this - but I'm trying to hold back the tide here. And more importantly we don't know if this is how it's going to end up. 

 

In general though I like the moves in a "we're not just running on auto-pilot, let's see what we can do" type of thinking. It's a shame that didn't extend to off-season pitching acquisitions. 

 

 

Friday Quickie : Before you get ahead of yourself

The Nats have been mediocre or worse since COVID (unrelated... OR IS IT) and this year feels different. The young bats are improving to the point you think the line-up can keep the Nats competitive for the season and with some pitching luck... Look we're not talking playoffs here but .500? Or at least best record since 2019? 

But before you take a close to .500 record as a sign of things being different let's remember

2025 :  June 6th the Nats were 30-33.

2024 : June 23rd the Nats were 38-39 

2021 : June 30th the Nats were 40-38 

Starting decently does not guarantee anything other than this team isn't going to be an under 60 win historic loser like the 2022 squad. 

We're edging closer and closer to real evaluation time in terms of stats, but as these season records show us things can go any which way for entire teams let alone players. Hell the very first Nats season - where they surprisingly had a huge NL East lead around July 4th only to finish .500 - should have told you that. Then again I guess you'd have to be at least in your late 20s to have learned that lesson.  

Even if the Nats are closing in on the All-Star Break around .500 there are no promises for a team that doesn't have a history of winning, that's dependent on kids with only a couple seasons of 150+ game rigors under their belt, and an organization with little depth to deal with injuries and a likelihood to want to make some late season trades with an eye to the future. 

Enjoy the .500 but don't expect the .500.  

Is the Nats lineup good?

The Nats have scored 5.4 runs per game in the first quarter of the season.  That just isn't good - it's second best in baseball good. But to Nats fans this feels very weird. Sure they could be better than average if the pieces came through but second best in baseball? If you told me that last year I would have had at least some Dylan Crews fighting for ROY expectations. 

What do the stats say?  

BASE

Average - .244  t10th

OBP - .325 t9th  

SLG -  .411 t6th

HR - 50 t9th

SB -  42 4th

BB - 155 14th  

OPS+ 111 - t5th

These all say the Nats are a little bit overperforming but nothing crazy because they don't really have any holes in their offensive game. Like maybe they shouldn't be 2nd best but Top 5 is reasonable.  

Except for SB this is a huge change from last season.  What happened?  Well - Luis Garcia is still Luis Garcia but he's putting up better numbers at 1B than baseball's least favorite canine Nathaniel Lowe. Brady House is rounding into at least an average bat after struggling mightily last year. Lyle is better than Dylan Crews. Jose Tena et all are at least matching Josh Bell. But mainly Wood and Abrams are hitting like MVP candidates when last year they were solid and above average respectively.  Outside of Nunez replacing Garcia at 2B everything is better. 

FANCY

 Their launch angle as a team is improved (it could hardly be worse) but other than that there isn't much outside of some minor improvements that would suggest getting to average.  

 Some of this is likely the Nats just getting better because they have young players and that's what young players do.  Hit it a little harder, a little better, swing at fewer bad pitchers. 

RELATIVENESS

But here's probably the kicker.  The usual way a baseball season works is April is the worst month for hitting then teams heat up until the end of the season when a combination of not trying, resting for playoffs, and kids brought up bring down the stats again. There are vagaries that can affect this but this is the general way of a season. 

In May 2026 the Nats have been hot in the first third of the season jumping up from .718 to .799 in OPS.  The league as a whole?  Down from .715 to .688. I can't say this is unprecedented but we haven't seen it in recent years. So while the Nats have gone on a hot streak baseball itself has gone dead cold and a team that was about average in April now finds itself in front with a good chunk of the reason being other teams flubbing their expectations. 

WHAT DOES THIS ALL MEAN

For the Nats and their offense - it's still early (remember our Memorial Day pledge for when stats count) but it looks like they are better and the terrible offense of 2025 is at least average thanks to some bounce backs and growth. Expect them to land where you'd expect an average offense to be over the past few seasons. 

For MLB I don't know. Like I said - we haven't seen this.  In April the average OPS was .715.  In May that would rank 9th.  That itself undersells what's going on as the gap between 9th and 10th is over 20 pts.  That's big. Teams are just not hitting.  If that's a real thing and there's a new normal, well then the Nats would seemingly benefit from just getting a better from awful.  It's not about being some universal best, it's all about relative best. 

My guess is though the season will find the Nats drifting down to around the 10th+ range, both as Abrams and Wood settle, as their runs scored match their stats, and as other teams shake off this weird early funk. But still Top 10 ish is better than expected and lends some hope to what 60 days ago looked pretty hopeless.  

 

How real are the starters?

The Nats have had a mixed bag from their starters in 2026 which honestly is a good thing considering "big bag of just crap" was a reasonably good expectation. Foster Griffin is pitching to much better results than anyone could have hoped for. Irvin and Cavalli are hitting about where you think they would. Mikolas and Littell are struggling even with PJ Poulin doing some "Relief starting" in their place. But it;s still early and a game or two in one direction or the other can really effect how things look for these guys.  Which of these results is "most real" and which ones are likely "fake"?

 

REAL 

Jake Irvin - mediocre back of the rotation innings eater. 

Last year Irvin struggled mightily but all his stats are back to 2024 levels. Which is to say not as bad as it looks but also not inspiring. His fancy stats do suggest something better than his ERA but I wouldn't try to read too much improvement into that. His xFIP is middle of the pack but his xERA being down a bit further. xFIP is "in a vacuum"  xERA is in part "with the team you got". He's good enough to put in a rotation but if you are hoping he'll be a Top 3 guy that's a stretch. The question set by the last two seasons - is he more a solid #4 or a hanging on #5? - seems to have the answer of "solid 5". His Ks and homers are probably going to get a little worse but some more outs with guys on base will offset some of that. 

Zack Litell - bound for somewhere other than the majors

Zack is a guy whose stuff has left him and has survived on guile and pinpoint accuracy over the past couple years. That accuracy is gone and the results of that is what you see.  A guy getting pounded. He's got one pitch working and it's a split finger so players can just sit on balls down and hope either the pitch or his wildness takes it out of the zone.  If you want to look on the bright side his last outing was by far his best but guys still hit him hard and got balls up in the air and he didn't throw strikes. 

 

NOT QUITE SURE 

Miles Mikolas - also out of baseball

Much like Zack Miles has been relying on a lack of walks to get him past his declining stuff. Unlike Zack, Miles is a wily multi-year veteran and has adjusted to his lack of accuracy by pitching down more and really upping his GB rate. That's generally good. The problem is when he misses he's getting creamed. If that doesn't stop neither does the trajectory out of baseball sooner than he probably wants. But if it does, if he can keep getting the GBs and cut the homers, well he should be perfectly serviceable. His ERA is already inflated by some crazy bad LOB% luck and should come down anyway.  But down to like 6 or like 4.5? That's what the homers will decide

 

FAKE

Foster Griffin - anywhere near ace

Since he's been overseas Griffin doesn't have a good expectation on normal so we're more reliant on fancy stats. His BABIP is too low to sustain and his LOB% is pretty high. This would be fine if he got a lot of soft contact but he doesn't.  He's hit pretty hard. He's going to give up more hits and give up more runs. The good news is that he should maintain his HR rate which is fairly decent.  He looks more like Irvin maybe slightly better. That's still a fine pick-up. 1 out of 3 ain't bad? 

 Cade Cavalli - middling middle 

Despite being 27 Cavalli's injuries means his experience is light, especially in the majors. His off speed stuff is near elite the problem has been the set up with a fastball and sinker that both have done nothing. That isn't new for the sinker but the fastball being off is what's causing the issue.  Maybe he's being too cautious with it? His HR rate has dropped like a rock despite in general getting hit comparable to last year. Given his experience and prospect status, I'll lean toward general improvement from what's been a fine but uninspiring early season and something more like 2 or happy to be your 3 type stats by year's end. 

 

Honestly - what to do about catcher?

 The Nats at catcher are currently the worst in baseball. In the previous two seasons they were 24th and 24th in wins above position, which tracks with what we all know. They are bad.  They haven't been the worst, thanks mainly to catcher being such a hard position that other teams were complete failures, but now they are the complete failure. Their issues at catcher might be the worst at any position in baseball*

Their main catcher Keibert Ruiz is hitting .182 / .203 / .303. Traditionally a minus behind the plate with the glove, he's managed to be actually decent this year but it's very iffy looking at defensive stats at such a small time frame. Still he'd have to have been turned into a defensive wizard to make up for his bat. Offensively Ruiz has never had power or patience and relied on putting the balls in play and getting hits to create value.  In the past few years though he can't get the ball up any more and he's lost his bats speed meaning he's become a very slow runner who hits weak ground balls.  That's a recipe for... well what you see in that batting line. 

Drew Millas is on the other hand a solid defender, or at least always has been, meaning there's a little less pressure put on his bat to perform.  Unfortunately he hasn't been able to get over even a lowered bar.  He's hitting .148 / .220 / .185.  Similar to Ruiz there's no power in the bat and this isn't something that will come around. He's 28 (over half a year OLDER than Ruiz) and he's historically never hit for power. There seemed to be some hope in 2023 & 2024 that he was a late bloomer and he'd be able to have some weak MLB power but those now appear to be flukes. He might do slightly better than this at the plate but he's also getting around an age you expect some drop off. 

 But the Nats brass anticipated such a problem and made a trade in the off-season for a "ready about now" catcher. Harry Ford has been a solid prospect in recent years and was blocked by the Cal Raleigh so was there for the taking and the Nats got him. The problem is currently he's putting up Ruiz/Millas numbers but in AAA .174 / .287 / .209.  It's the worst he's done in an extended time at the plate in his career and a far cry from his .283 / .408 / .460 in AAA last season. PCL or not that's a big drop. Worrisome his walk rate and k-rate both are going in the wrong direction.  He's not seen as good enough a defensive catcher to stick there for a career (there had been talk of trying him in the OF in Seattle) so there's no point in bringing him up with the hopes the bat catches up.  The good news is the guy just turned 23 at the start of the season so early season blip is completely likely. But that's only good news for the long run not for right now. 

At this point you look for anything and might that be Riley Adams?  Another questionable glove behind the plate his numbers at AAA are not inspiring, but at .216 / 326 / .378 they at least aren't incredibly depressing. He's has shown time and again he's not a major league hitter but at this point "decidedly below average at the plate" would be an improvement. AA offers a couple of interesting choices. Caleb Lomavita is one of those raw talents that you like but needs polishing in all phases of the game. He's not pushing anything in AA so a call-up would almost certainly be a negative. So we're left with Max Romero a 2022 draft pick of the Nats who has legit power, and a tendency to swing a miss way too much with no patience. Currently he's managing a touch more patience and a decent line in AA but history would expect him to get eaten alive in the majors with that whiff profile. 

That's the long of it. The short of it is they got nothing and honestly I got nothing. 

 Usually for a team in this position, you let this play out. But when you are absolutely the worst and you aren't trying to move forward with a true prospect then you gotta do something. You can't just be "we have no plan here other than to suck real bad". It's a terrible look that says not "we're making sacrifices for the future" but "we absolutely don't care".  The fans deserve at least a bit of effort from the front office here. Even if it's just a minor league contract stab at an old name or a trade for someone else's AAA no-name. Give us something that shows you know this is unacceptable. 

*Colorado's SS and the Angels' LF rank as the other possibilities.  

Monday Quickie - wait I thought the offense was good?

 Sorry it wasn't.  Moose outside shoulda told ya. 

This is what the offense looks like when Wood and Abrams aren't hot.  Pretty terrible, right?  Let's hope neither gets injured. 

The Nats have a record that looks pretty typical of a blah team. They get beat, but now blown away, by good teams and hold their own against everyone else. But it's still early enough I wouldn't read into that. I mean, they play the Cubs now instead of the first three games when things are really anyone's game and you don't expect them to take the series.  We'll see but the back half of May is shaping up to possibly be the important run.  Four more games versus the Mets - who if they are every going to get back in it will have had to go on a little run into those, three against Atlanta, three against a perfectly cromulent Cleveland team, and three against San Diego.  I feel like where they stand at the end of that will be a pretty good indicator of the season as a whole. 

But before that they got the Twins (bad but a little unlucky), Marlins (.500 ish), the Reds (maybe the luckiest team in baseball but the tides been turning recently), and the Orioles (stink!). This is the sort of run you want to end up better than you started if you aren't among the worst teams in the game. 

The Nats grabbed another arm - Zak Kent.  Just sort of a guy who can miss some bats.  

This is a real quickie this time. That's it. 

The James Wood timeline

 James Wood is 23 years old and after a disappointing finish to last season where he hit .223 with 7 homers after the break while striking out 105 times in 269 PAs, he's back to meeting high expectations. The early season is always full of wild variation (Currently a Nats team with Alex Call, Dom Smith, and Ildermo Vargas would be DESTROYING opposing pitching staffs) but Wood is the seventh best hitter in MLB by OPS+ and the 5th youngest in the Top 50*.  He's a guy you build an offense around and the assumption is the Nats will do that. They HAVE to or else what the hell are we doing here? 

If that's the case the Wood will start getting paid in 2028 and will probably need to be wrapped up no later than 2030 though the sooner the better. And if THAT'S the case then the Nats have no more four seasons to figure this out and anyone looking to get paid before the Nats decide to go in is likely going to be paid by someone else. 

I'm going to guess and say that won't be clear by the end of 2027 so anyone who's a FA after this or next year we should consider gone. This includes every FA pitcher (that's fine) and it includes Luis Garcia.  Luis is for the most part a perfectly acceptable part and he's actually still young (turns 26 in a couple weeks) but losing him probably won't be a big deal. 

The FA class of 2029 and 2030 are the issues. 2029 has CJ Abrams who is unarguably the Nats second best hitter and just an overall fun guy to watch. If he wasn't out of position at SS he's be an easy plus player and someone ELSE you build around. Even as is it's hard to see getting rid of him because the current third best hitter on the Nats is either likely flash in the pan Weimer or competent Daylen Lile.  There are other guys who might come up but there's no guarantees and CJ can hit in the majors. There's no doubts about that. The plan going into last year probably did have CJ traded away but it also had Wood getting a sidekick in Dylan Crews. If not him than Brady House or maybe a bounce back from Hassell. But Crews crashed, Hassell proved to be a AAAA type and House's development has been slow, if steady. Abrams be 28 in 2029 so he should have one solid contract in him.  Can the team afford to trade him? Wouldn't that just mean signing someone else anyway?  One good bat is clearly not enough. I think the situation dictates keeping Abrams as well with a long term deal soon. 

2030 is when Cade Cavalli hits FA. Now with a pitcher and this much time you can't really say much but right now he looks major league front of the rotation capable and he's the only non-temporary FA arm you have starting games .  Guys SHOULD develop. It'd almost be impossible for them not to. But who and when and how good? It's all up in the air. Still I'm not sure you sign Cavalli long term.  He's a pitcher. This is further off. And most importantly, the guy will be 31 in 2030.  A long term deal for a pitcher at that age is risky.  Not stupid like signing a guy at 35 for 3+ years but it's a gamble. This is one we're just going to have to watch and see if the situation forces the Nats to keep Cade as the guy bc either he develops into a top of the rotation arm or there just isn't anyone else.

 If you are like "this isn't a lot of building blocks, Harper" you're right. But the alternative to not signing Wood is a third rebuild in a row. The Nats punted on trying with this group as-is when they traded Gore (younger than Cavalli!) who if not better than Cade is easily more reliable.  That was an admission they weren't going to compete through 2027 and didn't want to pay Gore a big paycheck.  Ok but there has to be a timeline and a plan around that timeline.  Wood getting PAID feels like the timeline. You want to be competing when he's getting his money. How do we do that?  I think we start not by trading CJ but by signing him. After that though - it's a lot of prayers.

 

*Wood will be 24 on Sept 17th.  DET's McGonigle (13th) is 21 until August 18th, CIN's Stewart (16th) is 22 all season, KC's Jensen (37th) is 22 until July 3rd, OAK's Kurtz (49th) just turned 23 before the season started.  Wood beats out Cardinal rookie Wetherholt (41st) by a week. 

Monday Quickie - Foster-ing ideas of greatness

The Nats keep chugging along four steps forward, five steps back, and last game Foster Griffin shut down the White Sox. Ignore the White Sox for a moment, any chance the fancy stats say something is real here? 

No.

Griffin has pitched a lot like Jake Irvin but his BABIP sits at .233 (abnormally low) and his LOB% at 90.3% (abnormally high) and so they aren't scoring the runs off his that they "should". He's not getting a crazy amount of GBs (could be better) or avoiding hard contact (no one really hits him softly).  Poking around here and there I see barely anything. What I can say is his off-speed stuff is good, but his fastball is crap.  He's a junkballer. The ERA is an illusion and he's just fine.  But hey!  Just fine is... well fine!  

Two things to wonder about this week

Nasim Nunez is showing you why he was available in the Rule V draft and also why the Nats picked him up and kept him.  His defense is outstanding and I wouldn't be surprised if playing the whole season at 2B he ends up the 2nd best at the position (Nico Hoerner is truly something) but the guy can't hit. He is among the weakest swingers in the game and he also has an issue making good contact. This would be a bit more palatable at SS where his D would help more and CJ Abrams is a bad fielder. It makes too much sense. Why don't we move these guys around please? 

I don't know what is to be done about the catcher position.  Ruiz is still terrible. Millas hasn't done anything with his chances. Riley Adams, who they are only keeping around as org depth is doing nothing in AAA.  Harry Ford, who they hoped would hot start himself into a solution, is doing less.  Caleb Lomavita... well he's hanging in AA but he's clearly not ready for the majors.  Kevin Bazzell, the "hmmm maybe this is a savvy draft pick" from a couple years back is looking like a 2028 Car Dealer of the Year. As Olivia Rodrigo (new album drops in June) would sing - it's brutal out there.

 Oh since I'm in the minors anything of big interest early? 

• Gavin Fein - the "this is the good guy they got from Texas" hurt his wrist and hasn't played in almost three weeks. 
• Seaver King looks good early in AA - not shocking but exactly the improvement across the board you'd hope for after last years middling half-season. Similar take from the couple years younger Luke Dickerson a couple levels down. 
• Landon Harmon has started hot. Might need a bit more stretching out but seems too good for the Fred Nats already. 
• And what of Dylan Crews?  Still lost. In real danger of being a can't miss that missed.