Division Series Picks and Preview Pt 1

We'll start with the picks. (Except the Nats series - since I'm deep diving I'll leave that until tomorrow)

ALCS : Indians - Yankees. The Yankees might have been the second best team in baseball this year. It may be hard to believe that but it's true. You look at the runs they scored and the runs they allowed playing in the (once again) best division in baseball and you come away with the feeling that this was team that didn't catch the breaks on the field (18-26 in one run games). Yet they still won 91 games and were in contention for a division title until the last week against a very very good Red Sox team. The problem for the Yankees is they are probably up against the best team in baseball this year. One that after a middling May has been gaining momentum like a rolling stone. 15-12 in June, 15-11 in July, 19-9 in August, 25-4 in September. 25-4! What I think will tip the scales is the Indians rotation and the WC game giving them just enough advantage that they will have more leads to let their excellent pen hold on to then the Yankees will.  Indians in 5. 

ALCS : Astros - Red Sox. The Astros and Red Sox met in the last series of the year and a half-trying Houston won three of four from a Red Sox team who needed a win in every game but 162. The Red Sox have one big advantage over the Astros and that's a very very good bullpen, up there with the Indians and Yankees. The question is going to be whether they can get to it with a lead. I don't think they will. Another team maybe, but the Astros hit homers, and the Red Sox team, even guys like Sale, can give them up. The match up is bad on that end. The flip side - Astros pitching vs Red Sox hitting - is more even but as long as the Astros starters can keep Boston down, the Red Sox will be playing catch-up most of the series. Eventually playing catch-up catches up with you. Astros in 4. 

NLCS ; Dodgers - Diamondbacks.  The cliche response here would be to ask "which Dodgers show up" but the short of it that what we saw was an aberration. We saw the best month of pitching line up with the best month of hitting and vice versa causing two crazy streaks. But pull away the streaks and what do you have? A team that was 35-25 in early June, a team that went 16-5 after the crazy hot streak, and a team that finished the year 12-6. It's a very very good team.  Still the Diamondbacks are not far behind, with one of the best top to bottom rotations and an offense that is one of the best since gaining JD Martinez. In an even series with everyone at peak it'd be a tough call. But that's not what we have here. Greinke is working through issues and Robbie Ray was used in the WC putting the Diamondbacks in a hole early. It's a hole their team may be best equipped to handle but it's still a hole. The early series games should go to the Dodgers and then it's just a matter of sneaking one more through once the teams reset. I think they can do that.  Dodgers in 4


Let's talk about the Cubs.  Trying to figure out this Cubs team by looking at the stats for the year is the wrong way to do it. There were two Cubs teams this year. The Cubs that went 43-45 through the All-Star break and the Cubs that went 49-25 after it. What changed?

The offense was maligned a bit in the early going because it was easy to pick out the problems. Zobrist , Heyward, and Russell were all playing hurt and hitting badly. Schwarber hit so poorly they sent him back. down. Javy Baez couldn't find enough holes to get the average up or hit enough homers to cover for it. But the thing is- the offense was still ok. Bryant and Rizzo were still hitting like stars. The Cubs depth covered for other holes as Ian Happ, Tommy La Stella, and Jon Jay all hit well. They weren't the best team in the league but they were a solid outfit that were smack in the middle of the NL despite the injuries.

That should have been enough. That average offense should have been covered by a pitching staff that was virtually unchanged from the staff that was by far the best in the majors last year, especially with Wade Davis providing the Cubs with the full-year closer they only got a taste of last year.  The average offense should have been kept a few games over .500 until it could get itself healthy and right again. But Hendricks got hurt and Lester, Arrieta and Lackey all pitched a few steps worse than expected. The pulled together 5th starter tandem of Mike Montgomery and Eddie Butler ended up being just as good as anyone else.  The pen was mostly fine but with few leads to protect it didn't matter. If you have an average offense and and average pitching staff you are going to get average results and they did.

In the second half, things righted themselves in both aspects. Hendricks cam back healthy (2.19 ERA, 1.179 WHIP), Arrieta and Lackey found themselves (2.28, 1.090 and 3.75, 1.208 respectively) and the Cubs traded for Jose Quintana who didn't pitch great but stabalized the rotation with a solid performance (3.74, 1.103). The pen slipped a little but it didn't matter. The Cubs got the best starting pitching of any NL team after the All-Star break. Meanwhile the hitting became the beast we thought they could be. Contreras stepped up and hit like a star joining Bryant and Rizzo. Schwarber came back fixed and mashing balls over the fence. Russell hit better as he healed up. Baez got enough balls over the fence. And the solid bench remained solid.  The Cubs had the best offense of any team in the second half.

It's far more reasonable that the Nats consider their opponent not to be the average Cubs squad that played in the NL the first half of 2017 or even the good squad that shows up if you look at the whole year but this juggernaut that won games at a 107 win pace since mid-July. Nats fans should expect a Cubs team that is far more like the Cubs team that won it all last year than some 92 win team that had to fight the Brewers. The picks from most of the experts have been a little blase about this I think. They know the Nats have been one of the best teams in baseball all season. They know the Cubs haven't. They give the edge to the Nats. But if we look at the 2nd half we see a Cubs team that deserves to be talked up as much as the Dodgers or the Nats. This isn't a series that favors the Nats in a way that should get 70% of fair analysis going their way. It's a toss-up at best.