I'd love to do it, but I look at yesterday and see this situation
Strasburg cruised and had the Nats with a one-run lead going into the 8th inning. You couldn't ask for more especially given the fact the Nats had managed all of one-run. At 94 he could have been pushed another inning but with 8-9-1 coming up, and 1 being not much of a hitter, it seemed like a good time to give Stras' arm a little break and throw another guy in there for what should be an easy inning.
So who comes in? Suero, Strickland, Rodney, and Hudson were all two days removed from their last appearance. If you think he's going to try to close with Rodney - then he can't come in in the 8th and Strickland had his face injury issue, which earned him a day off as well. So it's Hudson or Suero and now it depends on your take.
If you think anyone should get out these guys, you put in Suero. Yeah it's a close game but today you might need someone to get big outs against their good hitters late. This seems like an opportunity to not pitch either of your best arms.
If you think it's a close game, nail down the win and hope it doesn't burn you tomorrow, then Hudson would be your guy, as it seems like Hudson-Rodney or Rodney-Hudson would be the last two with Doolittle out.
I can see it either way. Davey opted for Suero and Suero couldn't do the job - a hit, a walk, and then an unlucky bunt tht split the fielders. Now you had the important at bats late against the good hitters. It is the scenario you were saving Hudson for, you just didn't expect it to be THIS game. He comes in and can't close the door, giving up the homer and the Pirates win.
Like I said, I can see the argument for Hudson to start the 8th. I can also see an argument here for "well they weren't going to hold them scoreless and it's the Pirates so who cares if they gain a game H2H" and going with Grace or letting Suero try to work his own way out of it. But neither are strong pulls for me. Davey made a choice and it was ok. It just didn't work out. It happens. Honestly if you want to blame someone, blame Strickland who probably would have started that inning if he didn't manage to bash his face in working out.
It was never likely they were going to win all 4 games. There's the loss. Don't have another. Another forces the Nats into a situation where they have to win the series at the Cubs to come away with a successful road trip. It also keeps the PHI, NYM, and CHC all close going into a weekend where the Cubs play the Nats, the Phillies get the Marlins, and the Mets and Braves play eachother. The likely scenarios there would be the Phillies gain another game and either the Mets or Braves do too. Keeping distance from the Phillies/Cubs/Mets - which winning the next two would ensure at least a little - is a good idea.
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As much as I'd love to blame DM, this is Rizzo's fault. The Nats have lost a ton of games in which they were leading in the 7th inning or later. Year in and year out, Rizzo fails to build an adequate bullpen. DM isn't a great tactician, but it's not like he has great options either.
I blame last night more on the bats going dead at key times vs emergency pitching more than anything else... let them stay in the game too long at home.
As for the BP, do we just not have good scouting talent and coaching in the org for relief pitching? It's nuts to me that the only players that succeed in our BP are vets we get mid-year from elsewhere. I can't remember the last good, home grown reliever who's come up and stayed with our system (maybe at this point you can count Tanner, but that seems like a stretch to date).
As much as Sammy hates him, the last "home-grown" reliever I remember being good that we kept around was Clippard (Felipe Rivero/Vazquez being the only one more recent I can think of, but he got shipped off pretty quickly)
I'd like to blame Rizzo for the bullpen, but only because his philosophy revolves around lottery tickets. Most relievers suck, there's a reason they're in relief: they couldn't cut it as a starter. But stable/predictable suck is way better than what Rizzo goes for, which is someone coming off injury, coming off a hot year, or super old with potential to break. Like why can't Rizzo just sign a bunch of no name relievers who we expect to pitch to 4.5 ERA? That's way more intelligent in my book
@Passimistic - Clippard wasn't homegrown. He was drafted by and debuted with Yankees before being traded to us in '08.
But your point is accurate, we haven't development many successful relievers (pitchers in general even, aside from Tanner and Stras). Storen was the last (perhaps only?) homegrown successful reliever we've had, with longevity. That was 2010-2015.
LFGM!
Maybe it's just a philosophy on pitching staff in general. It seems the organization has placed an emphasis on bringing up the internal position player talent, but building a pitching staff via trades and free agency (because they think it easier?). Stras is an outlier simply because the Nats sucked their way into drafting him, he actually panned out, he's kind of a homebody and the Nats were his first MLB home.
We've had a history of trading pitching prospects and nascent MLB hurlers for more established names. Peacock, Milone, and Cole for Gio (a total win IMO). Krol and Ray for Fister. Pivetta for the Strangler. Rivero/Vasquez for Melancon. Giolito, albeit for an OF. Treinen for Doo and Madson.
The organization has kind of made the wrong decision on which guys to wait out and which guys to flip. Giolito, Treinen and Rivero/Vasquez could have been great holds. I feel like they waited too long on some others. Henry Rodriguez comes to mind. Koda Glover may as well be slotted here now. The book is kind of in play on Fedde.
@Ole PBN, Clippard was a homegrown reliever, he was traded to the Nats as a starter and then moved to relief. But now we're just arguing semantics. Long story short, Rizzo needs to figure something out
Blame the offense for this one. It hurts to see good starting pitching, a rare commodity, wasted. And we have seen a lot of waste this year. But one run against those guys? You'd have thought it was Nolan Ryan out there last night.
Hope they can pick it up and win the last two because getting a win in Chicago won't be easy.
Some baseball philosopher opined that in the era of the juiced ball no late inning lead is safe. In the old days you may have thought that the 8th, 9th and lead off batter were cupcakes but that is no longer the case. Almost every hitter can reach the seats and guys with no power smash them off the wall with ease.
If want to protect any lead, you must bring in your best relieve, then you bring in your best reliever which would have meant Hudson over Suero. This means that ultimately you will over work your best relievers so they wear out from overuse.
This was why the baseball philosopher said it was the juiced ball that is causing bull pens to implode throughout the major leagues and making good managers look totally inept.
That may take the cake for the dumbest post you've ever had SSLN
everyone - on homegrown relievers - I think though the issue is the concentration traded in 2015/6 and then not getting over the hump with the talent brought in. They added Papelbon, Melancon, Doolittle, Madson, Kintzler in a quick period. That's a lot of talent! Still couldn't win that series though. That's what we're feeling now. And when you trade so many you are going to see some losses - but don't forget they brought in a stack of middling talent and so far - no wins. McGowin, Adams (now on SEA), Gott (SF), Enny Romero, Jimmy Cordero. Maybe Rainey will be that guy? Or Elias or Strickland?
srojack - LFGM? Not sure I like that best... FLGM. Eh. LGFM? no that makes it seem like you are rooting for sex. LGMF? That doesn't make any sense. Ok LFGM is the best one.
ssln - things to check - have we seen more blown leads late? have we seen bigger blown leads late? Have bullpens worn down as year had gone on? Quite possible but man can't live on philosophy alone.
@Sales Pitch - I actually think their starter development is pretty decent (Tanner, Stras, Ray). It's not like teams turn out tons of top 3-4 starters, so the fact there's a clear three that would be good for any team (plus hey! would Giolito have figured it out with us?) is actually a pretty good sign. I'm not optimistic on Fedde, but that would be another feather in the cap if he turns into a decent back end starter.
That's why the BP development is so fickle seeming to me. I guess we can take credit for Felipe, but before that the only names I can think of are Stammen, Storen and Clippard. That's almost a decade of whiffs.
@Harper I'm blanking on the trade pieces (besides Felipe) - were most of them future relief prospects? Even Felipe would probably make this point moot if he was up now.
I feel like you've written post every year for a few years saying we are starting the year with a flawed BP, try to fix via trades. It's just crazy to see how much worse advanced stats have our BP this year vs every other contender. Seems like we've fallen back on the midyear fix, but would love to see us start a season with the pen in good order.
Look here’s the deal. The Nats have a historically bad bullpen this year, and without some sort of revelation or unexpected change/small sample size miracle, it will prevent them from achieving anything of consequence. Rizzo very obviously does not view bullpens as nearly as important as rotations and lineups. Well....that’s how you end up with below average or worse bullpens (almost) every year. It’s on him. Everybody with a brain knew the bullpen looked like an obvious weakness to begin the year. The pen has been the worst in NL (by a LOT)....and at the trade deadline, he brought in 3 meh relievers. Of the Nats 17 losses since the All Star Break, 15 were hanged on the bullpen. Ever since Drew Storen blew that multi run save in 2012 Game 5 vs the Cardinals, the largest most consistent factor fueling the team’s underachievement and multiple late inning meltdowns in the playoffs is Rizzo’s failure to build a team that can win the late innings. And it’s getting really tiresome to watch.
Harper
You are the stat guy. All you need to do is look up the ERA bull pen average for the 30 teams last year and compare it to this year. Let me know what you find. Then you can come up with an alternative reason for your findings.
Anon
This isn't even close to the dumbest post I've ever made. It shows your memory is beginning to fail you. I did a piece on sports psychology last year which you didn't get and never will. We saw the impact of sports psychology on the Nats this year with Rosenthal. Guy could never get over the thought of reinjuring himself so he flamed out. He just signed with the Yankees. They are a team big into sports psychology. See an interview with Aaron Judge.
I will be interested to see if the Yankee intervention program works with TR. If it does, you will be looking a candidate for comeback player of the year in the AL next year.
This whole post is way over your comprehension so don't wotty if you don't understand it.
@ssln - I chuckled at that response. Touché if you're being intentional with that.
On the chance you're not, you're arguing at the flower stand about inflation when the particular flowers you want to buy are dead.
Also, you're no where near the first person to discuss and think through sports psychology. And yes, the baseball is juiced taxing bullpens. If you can't see how that's not relevant to this conversation, well, I guess I live here on earth while you're somewhere way overhead.
Anon
Trust me, my response was totally intentional and I meant every word I wrote.
As to my comment about sports psychology, I know that I am not the first one to mention it. But here is what you don't know. Last year I brought up the subject and the other Anon and the community just laughed at it. So what does that tell you about the collective wisdom of the community.
Now you understand the reference...also, I suggest you watch out. People want be happy with you if you start saying there are other people who have the same ideas as me.
Is Adam Eaton good again? He's so much fun to watch all of a sudden.
If so, then SUCK IT, COMMUNITY, BECAUSE I WROTE A COMMENT EXACTLY 120.5 DAYS AGO ABOUT HOW ADAM EATON WAS AWESOME AND JUST HAD LEG PROBLEMS BUT YOU GUYS WERE LIKE NAH HE SUCKS AND I WAS LIKE COME ON GUYS, JUST WAIT AND SEE AND YOU WERE LIKE NAH MR. T YOU'RE STUPID, WELL WHO'S STUPID NOW SUCKAS! SPORTS PSYCHOLOGY FTW!!!
@ssln sarcasm gets lost on me in written form. But to be clear, your sentence structure inferred that your comment last year was a dumber comment.
To be honest, I have no idea the context of his/her comment, nor honestly did I know of your comments on this blog before this year. So I have no idea what the implied wisdom would be. Players get the yips, wear lucky sucks until they're worn through, believe things because confidence and comfort allow for better instinct reactions trained through decades of play. It happens in peoples high pressure day jobs all the time (lose "it" and start to spiral), no reason why it wouldn't happen in mlb.
You can say two things that are true that have no relationship. Nats bullpen is bad, home runs are up, but the connection you're drawing is borderline spurious. The Nats bullpen performance is (was) independently bad compared to replacement level (corrected for year over year change). Potentially it was exacerbated by Davey having no idea how to handle juiced baseballs compared to other managers, ruining his only good relief arm. But the data (that the pen is far worse than replacement level this season) suggests this is closer to a relationship where there's no causation like relationship between pool drownings and Nicholas Cage movies (or if you want to get serious, anyone who ties this decades bull market to their favorite of the most recent two presidents).
“This whole post is way over your comprehension so don't wotty if you don't understand it.”
“...what does that tell you about the collective wisdom of the community.”
Anybody else tired of this?
To Anon
You are entitled to your opinion that my thoughts about relief pitching and the juiced ball are spurious. But you need to know that they are not just my thoughts. They actually come from an article that appeared on Bleacher Reports written by Scott Miller.
The article is entitled MLB's Juiced Ball Controvery Has Pitchers Scrambling and Suspicious. The date of the article was 8/2/19.
Go Nats!
The idea that the Nats bullpen is bad this year due to the juiced ball is bananas. If we assume every pen or most pens are giving up more runs due to the ball, fine, but the Nats pen is still wayyyyy worse than any other NL team. The only reason this comment makes sense is if you’re saying the Nats pen wouldn’t be as HISTORICALLY bad compared to other years or something.
@Mr T. LOLOL.
@SSLN. Of course the bullpen average ERA (and pitching average ERA) will be a bit higher for the league this year. But that has nothing to do with why the Nats are uniquely hideous. Unless somebody has data showing the Nats pitchers are uniquely susceptible to wall scraper home runs (juiced ball effects), this makes no sense. If the Nats pen were worst in NL at 5.8 ERA vs worst in NL at 6.1 ERA, who really cares? All the same discussion and analysis applies.
No, Mr. T FTW! Time for a new post Harper, because no comment is going to top that one!
lol'ing at ssln - "This isn't even close to the dumbest post I've ever made. It shows your memory is beginning to fail you. I did a piece on sports psychology last year which you didn't get and never will"
Sorry bud, i don't think your incessant "look at me" posting constitutes "doing a piece"...
For me, ssln's dumbest posts typically use the word(s) "economics" or "free cash flow"
Oh man, anon conversations with @ssln have become Sparticus-esc.
Still, I went back and read the article... core message of juiced balls causing more HRs and reducing the effectiveness (potentially?) of some relievers like Cody Allen relative to the rest of the reliever population. Entirely separate issue - the Nationals bullpen performance is bad.
My "opinion" is that compared to league average performance this year, which would mute the effect of juiced balls, the Nationals statistically have had one of the worst pens in baseball (I'd have loved the performance of our counterparts in NY, Phi, or Atl). I'm not willing to jump and say juiced balls had a uniquely outsized outsized effect on our BP compared to everyone else.
More analogies that might help clarify the difference i'm laying out (though I liked my flower one):
1) Arguing about rising sea-level when your specific house is already well underwater
2) Worried about the quality of the lox when they're already sold out
3) ---- underlying league wide trend ------- idiosyncratic fact that everyone else is discussing
Can we talk about how Max is coming back today, and yet according to the site which shall not be named, he is STILL the leading pitcher in WAR? That's literal insanity after missing, what, 5 starts?
@Mr. T.
Well done, sir. Well done.
Hey Anon
Thanks for taking the time to read the article I gave you. Here is another one for you. This was written on 6/17 by Alden Gonzalez and is entitled Why Relief Pitchers Are So Hard To Figure Out. The article appeared on ESPN. Here is a quote from the article.
"These days reliever volatility has reached a new high. League wide relief pitchers are allowing 4.77 runs per game, the highest marks in 12 years. The reason, many will say, is they are exhausted."
.... Hey look, the water level is higher out here on lake Michigan. my boat is still smaller than my neighbors. I blame the higher water.
I give up.
Good call Mr. T
Let's go Max.
@ssln
While we're pulling articles out of thin air, go take a look at the last few pieces by Craig Edwards over at fangraphs. He lays out a much more substantial analysis of the league's relief corps and he comes to the conclusion that the NL East is terrible. There's no other way to look at it. All 5 teams fall in the bottom 7. So please stop claiming it's the juiced ball, because the ball is affecting everyone
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-best-bullpens-in-baseball/
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-real-reliever-problem/
I think I was 7 or 8 years old, playing T-ball in the July summer heat in Iowa when I complained about the heat to my Dad. He told me then, "Quit whining about the heat. Everyone else is playing in it."
My dad likely was right about juiced baseballs and bullpens, too. Everyone is pitching with them, but none are hot garbage as bad as the Nats' BP was all season long.
Nats, despite occasional BP failures are 8-2 in last ten, but most of their competition are also playing pretty well, so pressure stays on. I always feel dicey about Chicago, and they've got the night game before a day game combined with travel going into Friday, so hope they can win 2 of 3, but might just be 1. How I want them to sweep the O's this time around. Whatever happens, this has been among the most satisfying seasons I've experienced as a Nats fan. They are just more fun than other groups were, and this is by far the most adversity I've seen them overcome. Big if for me is whether Max is back for certain. If he is, I feel the odds favor the Nats. But again, much of the WC group is playing well right now, so a big challenge coming up.
Nats win MASN dispute in NY Supreme Court....awarded 298 million dollars. I *think* that’s the end of the appeals unless Os come up with a grounds for appealing to US Supreme Court (which takes almost no cases and wouldn’t take this one). The Lerners should just endorse that check straight over to Rendon.
I might be reading the article incorrectly, but it sound like the bulk of that $296.8M had already been paid out over the previous several seasons? Sounds like we’re only getting ~$70M in new money? But I could be wrong.
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