Nationals Baseball: Joe Ross isn't good but you shouldn't care

Thursday, August 08, 2019

Joe Ross isn't good but you shouldn't care

In a 3 game set in 2018 Jefry Rodriguez gave up 3 runs, allowing 18 baserunners in 16 innings and holding opponents to a .182 / .286 / .255  line

In back to back games in 2017 AJ Cole gave up 2 ER in 11.2 IP throwing to a .214 / .340 / .286 line

These things happen. You shouldn't read too much into short bursts of competence by starting pitchers because occasionaly the line-up you face and the BABIP you get works in your favor and maybe you just do have it that day. You are good enough to get a major league start - that means you have some talent. Is that what's going on with Ross? History says - probably!  He actually could be ok but he's three years out from being anything but a poor 5th starter so why not let him throw say... a month of starts out there before we get excited?

And you shouldn't really care about it either, and by that I mean whether Ross is good in the long run or not doesn't matter nearly as much right now as whether Ross can get good results the rest of this year. In 2005 the Yankees sprinted to a division title. How? Because Aaron Small and Shawn Chacon went 17-3 down the stretch. Neither were really any good but who cares! Worry about 5th starter after the season when you need to evaluate such things.Right now just hope he keeps winning, whether he walks a man per inning like he did last time or is bouyed by a .154 BABIP like he has been over the last 2 games.  Enjoy the results - without telling me I should look at how he's improved.

The big news of yesterday is Rendon was pulled after a ball hit his foot. They say it was nothing. They've said that before. They said Max would be fine and no one has ever seen him again. Rendon tweaked his knee one spring and was "day to day" for 70 days. He broke his toe recently. Let's see him in uniform and playing tomorrow and no "Precautionary x-ray" news today. 

17 comments:

SLR_762 said...

LFGM!

Sammy Kent said...

Really enjoyed the sweep. The Nationals have always had better luck against teams that can't score. Got a feeling this weekend won't be so sweet. Hopeful, but not terribly optimistic.

coolsny said...

the silver lining of Max being out is potentially being well-rested for September/October baseball?

winning the WC has always been the realistic goal and having a well rested Max (not game 5 2017 NLDS RP Tired Max) for that game + any potential series would be great!

also interesting is the Nats dont have any glaring Home-Away splits, they shit the bed equally!

Dr Trea (formerly #werthquake) said...

@coolsny : That's true about max...imagine him rested down the stretch. Wow.

This sweet in SF was just what they needed. Now they come back to the east coast on good vibes. Got their hardest stretches out of the way. I think things are set up for them nicely to take it if they do what they need to do.

PotomacFan said...

@Harper: so you don't think it's sustainable for Ross and Fedde to keep throwing 6 shutout innings in their starts? More importantly, we need Strasburg and Corbin to bounce back.

Before anyone looks up what I said about Tanner Roark and Anibel Sanchez, I was wrong. Roark has been good this year, but Sanchez has been better. And the Nats got a marginally useful Tanner Rainey in that "trade".

BTW: Rizzo gets heavily criticized for not assembling an adequate bullpen at the beginning of each season. I agree that the bullpen has been wholly inadequate. But I wonder if this is a decision by the Lerners not to spend money on the bullpen, the same way they won't spend money on managers. Fortunately, the Lerners will spend big $$ on starting pitching, and that has worked really well. Now pay up for Rendon!

G Cracka X said...

In other news, how about Gerardo Parra? What a great pickup for the Nats. His raw stats don't pop, but he's 3rd among Nats position players in Win Probability Added; ahead of everyone except Rendon and Soto, and almost double the amount of WPA as Turner or Kendrick. Pretty impressive production for a guy who was picked up off waivers in May.

Mythra said...

I think time since surgery is more of an explanation for Joe Ross being more like 2016-2017 pre-surgery Joe Ross and less like the guy who got shelled. Yes, he's found mechanics and his sinker is staying low in the zone the last 3 starts. But maybe that's because recovery of 'touch' and fine motor skills takes longer than ligament recovery. The eye test has always told me that the 2nd year back after a major surgery (TJ, MCL, ACL, Achilles) an athlete is often closer to the pre-injury level of body control.

Case in point: NFL RBs tend to have fine North-South skills 1 year after ACL/MCL repairs. But the 2nd half of that first season back they get better at cuts, hit-avoidance, etc. Maybe it's the same with mechanics, arm angles, slots, release points, etc. for a MLB pitcher?

Then again, maybe I'm just an optimist and ignore stats/science. But if Joe Ross is back to a #3 guy in the #4 slot, he solves a lot of problems for Rizzo.

Mr. T said...

Ross's stuff is good, but with very shaky command. He's wild in the zone, and wild out of it. He's been lucky. But I'll take it!

A rested, postseason-dominant Max would be nifty.

SuburbanSteve said...

Yeah, but it's the true blue baseball fan in me that loved the way Ross' fastball moved yesterday...felt like old times when he first got called up. His secondary pitches were working well too...I'm fine with waiting to 'proclaim' anything about him, but I'll take that Joe Ross 9and the win) while I can get it!

Anonymous said...

Regarding the movement on Joe Ross fastballs...does anyone know his spin-rate?

G Cracka X said...

@Anon Here's a link to what you are looking for (scroll down to the pitch tracking section. There is a 'SPIN' column there):

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/joe-ross-605452?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

Anonymous said...

Joe Ross isn't good? Let's amend that to the injured Joe Ross hasn't been good. Joe Ross '15 and '16 was a promising pitcher. Recovering from surgery is an uncertain art. For some they find that rhythm again, for some...never. The Joe Ross of the past two starts kept the ball low in the zone, with movement and velocity. Maybe he has found that rhythm he had as a young starter.

Anonymous said...

Eh, two starts is two starts. We shouldn't get carried away -- and, to Harper's point, we don't have to get carried away to enjoy these strong performances. And, hell, if optimism is just "Maybe Ross figured it out enough to be a competent back end starter that gives us a 40% chance of winning his games", then sure maybe be optimistic if you feel like it. I think it's still a bit early for it given how he looked just a couple months ago, but knock yourself out. Just don't expect him to scatter and strand baserunners as fortuitously as he has been lately. That is 100% luck.

As some others have mentioned, we do have something to be justifiably hyped about -- Soto's trajectory on defense. I'm anon, so I can't really told-you-so, but I was one of the ones hoping/projecting him to improve as he worked on his defense this year. Not saying he's great, but damn he's improved a lot. Way to go future hall of famer Juan Soto!!! HYPE CITY!!!!

ssln said...

Anon

Sounds like you just told everyone I told you so. Since I do it all the time, I know it when I see it.

Josh said...

ssln, you just made me laugh out loud. Thank you sir.

Jon Quimby said...

How about those surging Giants!?

Anonymous said...

This is poorly written. Joe Ross waa a good pitcher pre-Tommy John but hasn't been a good pitcher since his return. That said his last two starts were very encouraging and we should hold off in making any conclusions.