Nationals Baseball: Well at least everyone else lost too

Wednesday, August 28, 2019

Well at least everyone else lost too

You can't win them all.

I didn't follow the game much but it seemed like they were handling the Nats like I would - pitch around Rendon and Soto and make the other guys beat you. The Nats are now 7-8 deep* in professional batters so it is a risk, but these are also guys that are not team carriers. Maybe Turner is a little scary to pitch to but you can beat everyone else. It's a gamble, one that probably wouldn't work over the course of a series and with Howie and Suzuki in the line-up, but for one game? I'd do it. This would be my wild card plan. If Rendon and Soto didn't walk at least 4 times combined my pitchers either failed or these two flailed.

Corbin was good and Suero and Rodney held the Orioles down but they aren't a particularly good team with the bat (though pitching is their main problem). The fact they got through 3 innings of relief with no runs is both surprising and unlikely to happen again.  They gave up 2 hits and 2 walks in 3 innings including a triple.  Hard to do that and not give up something.

Reset - play again - win this time.

If you didn't notice the Nats are almost as far out from the NL East (5.5 games) as being out of the WC (5 games). Tough for them to win the East or lose the WC from here.

The big Q for the Nats is what to do with all the returning players. Elias, Doolittle, Zimmerman. The easy answer for rostering is nothing now - wait for roster expansion (the new limits come next year) and just bring them in. That's what they'll do. The harder answer is what to do about working them in. Elias should be the simplest. As just another bullpen arm Davey can use him anywhere. Now he's going to use him to face lefties because Davey doesn't seem to understand that Elias' splits aren't one year aberrations, but if that's how he'd use him in the playoffs might as well see if that works now, rather than wait until an important game. Doesn't bode well for Ronnie showing what he can do or optimizing the Nats pen but we're frittering away at the margins of the pen here.  Doolittle will want to go back to closing (though he's said he does need to pitch well to keep that spot). Davey will want to go back to using him there. As long as that 5 game cushion exists on either side I say - fine. Try him out at closing again. No back to backs for a couple weeks. See if he is back to normal. There's an ability to play around and having Doolittle in the right spot in the pen for the playoffs is worth losing a game here or there in September. Now, if things tighten up that will be an issue but I don't see that happening in the next 3 days.

Zimmerman... ok he's an issue. When he's on Zimm has shown he can still hit. But he hasn't been right all year and at 34 there's no reason to think he can just bounce back. Meanwhile Kendrick, who is basically who Zimm would replace is super hot and probably the Nats 4th most important hitter** You can't sit that for a chance to try out Zimm unless you are serious about sitting Kendrick for the playoffs. I would not be. I only see one path forward here and that's Zimm as a PH and spot-starter the rest of the year who rides the pine in October. Zimm got you here in the biggest and broadest sense, but Howie got you here in 2019. There's nothing owed to Zimm over Howie right now.




*depends if Gomes is starting

**He's third best but I think Turner is more important because of his speed.

41 comments:

Anonymous said...

I fully recognize that I am trolling you, Harper, but I am going to continue to do it. The Phillies are 6-5 during the first 11 games of the 15 game stretch you predicted they would finish 11-4. In comments to prior posts you've moved the goalposts twice, first by saying you "wouldn't feel bad" if they finished 10-5, apparently because 10-5 is close to 11-4, and then that you didn't take into account that Bryce would go on the paternity list. I suppose both post-prediction rationalizations are tacit admissions that your original prediction was idiotic, but for some reason you seem loathe to admit it. The time has come.

During this 11 game stretch against garbage teams, they've scored 60 runs and given up 56. They've won two one-run games and lost three. They've had two walk-off wins (including one in which they needed to score 4 runs in the 9th to tie, and ended up scoring 6 to win) and zero walk-off losses. They are 1-0 in extra innings.

Their 6-5 record is fully earned. You were right to point out that this was an easy stretch for the Phillies. But you were wrong to suggest they could do meaningfully better than .500 because the Phillies aren't a good team. Maybe they'll pick it up and beat the Pirates today and sweep the Mets this weekend to get you somewhere in the vicinity of being right. But predicting that now - given all the evidence that this is not a good team - would be just as idiotic as predicting them to go 11-5 in the first place.

coolsny said...

@ Anon 8:45am

Have you considered running for president on this issue?

Mr. T said...

Zim is only 34?? Holy moly.

G Cracka X said...

I see parallels to 2017, where we the fans wanted Kendrick to start in LF, but Werth started all 5 games.

Will Davey start Zim in the WC game over Adams or Kendrick?

Treaples69 said...

This will likely be a decision davey will have to make. The most likely 2nd wild card team right now is the cubs. 3/5 of there starters are lefty and mlb just said hamels would be theres best option. (we hit lefties so i would take this matchup) Howie has to start in this scenario

Jimmy said...

G cracka x- is that a rhetorical question cause I'm pretty sure we all know the answer.

Ole PBN said...

"There's nothing owed to Zimm over Howie right now."

Nothing, well, except that $18M Zimm is being paid right now. Zimm will be inserted into 1B duties with some AB's against RHH going to Adams. Same annoying mentality as it was before. In Rizzo's mind (not DM's as I don't think he has control over how to use Zimm), you don't sit a guy making that kind of money, regardless of poor performance.

Its stupid, but I'm afraid that's what they're going to do. Just please don't do it October.

Anonymous said...

Zim is also owed $10 M over 5 years via a "personal services contract" if I remember.

The guy is set up. I just hope he can be honest about his body going into the playoffs. If he can't play up to a high standard, he needs to say so.

Cautiously Pessimistic said...

The fact that Zim NEVER sits is baffling to me and makes me wonder if there's something in his contract that we don't know about. Even if Zim has a little magic left, it will take him a month of regular at bats to heat up again. He's notorious for that. And the Nats can't afford to give him a month of regular ABs

Harper said...

Man - you are going to hate tomorrow's post "The Phillies are secretly the best team in baseball"

Jimmy said...

@harper- that was going to be my doctorate thesis in sabermetrics.

ssln said...

Anon

I love it when you tell someone "I told you so" and when you do it to Harper, it really makes it special.

Anonymous said...

Receiving a support post from ssln is like a cold slap to the face. I've gone too far. No more comments from me about the (obviously terrible) Phillies.

Edge said...

lol

BxJaycobb said...

@Harper. I guarantee you that Davey starts Zim in a ton of games at the expense of Kendrick at bats...a guy who is hitting like .320 with power. And it will be such indefensible madness it will make Jaysen Werth over Kendrick in LF look reasonable. Personally I don’t even really understand why he is playing Adams against every RHP. Kendrick should start most days, including vs RHP. Give him days off here and there to keep him fresh but I mean....if Adams or Zim are starting over Kendrick in the WC game....I’m going to absolutely lose my s***.

Mr. T said...

@Bx it's definitely gonna be Zim in the WC game. The Cubs will have the bases loaded, tie game, ninth inning, less than two outs, and Schwarber is gonna hit a hard ground ball to first. And Zim is gonna throw home...

Anonymous said...

Anon - no more shaming our good name.

This reminds me of the last Brave WC year, except we're in the WC position, where every W/L is matched between the teams.

Anyways, go Cubs.

Natitude said...

I thought that they just looked tired last night. Except for Corbin who was outstanding.

Jay said...

Worse than Zim throwing home? Maddon is going to walk to Soto to load the bases with two outs with Zim coming up and Zim will hit a 130 mph ground ball to short and be thrown out at first to lose the game. All everyone will talk about is how Zim hit the ball hard but right at someone.

When guys get old and catch up to the FB they strike out a lot or hit ground balls because they lack the bat speed to get around on the ball.

Johnny Callison said...

Hope Eaton is okay. He's been a key part of this recent offensive explosion. He's been so good of late that I think they should pick up his option.

G Cracka X said...

@Jay What would be really fun is if Zim got into that same situation, and hit that same grounder, but it happens to split the infielders, and it turns into a walk-off for the Nats. And then we would get ENDLESS debate on this blog between the outcome-based guys (Davey made the right call!! Zim is clutch! Long live Zim!) and the process-based guys (Davey is terrible! He just got lucky! Same for Zim! Wrong call, right result! There's no such thing as Clutch!)

Sammy Kent said...

Going back to Ole PBN's comments on an earlier entry regarding Doolittle's numbers pre-and post- Joe Maddon's hissy fit, this may be important, especially if we play the Cubs in the WC game.

I have scoured the rule book and watched videos till my eyes bled, and there is no merit whatsoever in Joe Maddon's challenge of Doo's pitching motion. If Doolittle is more comfortable or gets better results with his right toe gently tapping or scraping the dirt in his normal pitching motion, then he should do it and Maddon may go sit on a fire hydrant and crap his drawers. There is no specific prohibition against it...either Doo's motion or Maddon sitting on a fire hydrant and crapping his drawers.

Rule 6.02 If there is a runner, or runners, it is a balk when:
(1) The pitcher, while touching his plate, makes any motion
naturally associated with his pitch and fails to make such
delivery;

There is no question that Edwards was in violation of Rule 6.02. He was placing his entire right foot on the mound and stopping his pitching motion, then starting again. That is clearly a balk, and nothing at all comparable to what Doolittle's pitching motion entails.

Also under Rule 5.07(a) is this Comment:
The pitcher may not take a second step toward home plate
with either foot or otherwise reset his pivot foot
in his delivery of the pitch. If there is a runner, or runners,
on base it is a balk under Rule 6.02(a); if the bases are
unoccupied it is an illegal pitch under Rule 6.02(b).

Again, Edwards was clearly and definitively taking a second step toward home plate with his right foot when he finished his pitching motion and actually delivered the pitch. The only way for his move to not be a balk would be for him to have actually pitched the ball to the plate when he rested his foot on the mound the first time. That was his first step. Raising his foot back up, then stepping in to the pitch as he actually delivered it constituted a second step toward the plate.

So Edwards was guilty of balking by virtue of TWO rules violations: stopping his delivery, and taking an extra step. Doolittle was not balking by any definition of the term or proper interpretation of the rules. If he chooses to pitch that way, Davey should not let himself or the umpires be bullied or intimidated by his old boss.

Just FWIW.

Sammy Kent said...

To clarify, since I can't actually EDIT my post, I should have said Edwards was violating the rule with his LEFT foot, not his right, since he's a righty pitcher. Duh.

Cautiously Pessimistic said...

I don't know Sammy. I think it's stupid, and I think Edwards was far more obvious than Doo, but what Doo was doing was DEFINITELY a gray area. It boils down to interpretation of whether tapping the toe was ending a first step or pausing the delivery or whatever. It's a gray area just like Cueto's pause mid-delivery (though with the leg up), which is why nobody but Maddon would protest it.

Sammy Kent said...

MLB used to be the last bastion of integrity when it came to enforcing the rules to the letter, but unfortunately they too have succumbed to the temptation to cherry-pick then stick a wet finger in the air and see how it goes with the fans or players or owners. No example more glaring than their willingness to allow Carter Capps and Jordan Walden get away with blatantly illegal pitches, despite the obvious potential advantage gained by throwing the ball from 58 feet as opposed to 60 feet six inches. That area wasn't even close to being gray as far as I was concerned, yet for some reason MLB decided that the rule that the pitcher's pivot foot has to stay in contact with the rubber until the pitch is delivered doesn't really mean that. It is significant IMHO that the National Federation of State High School Associations has weighed in on this very thing, and ruled totally contrary to MLB, but exactly what MLB SHOULD have ruled:

(From the NFSH web site) https://nfhs.org/sports-resource-content/baseball-rules-interpretations-2019
SITUATION 1: The pitcher, in his delivery motion, comes off the pitching plate and replants his pivot foot in the dirt in front of the pitching plate prior to releasing the ball. His coach says this “crowhop” is legal. RULING: This is an illegal pitch. The pitcher cannot replant his pivot foot during the delivery. (6-1-1, 6-1-2, 6-1-3)

Back to Doolittle:
I don't think Doo's motion is a gray area either since he neither takes a step nor stops his delivery. If they're going to prohibit it, they need to put in the rule book that a pitcher cannot touch the ground with his non-pivot foot in the course of delivering the pitch until he steps toward the plate and throws the ball. Then enforce it by the letter. If they think Doo's motion is within the rules, but there's a potential question about it, they can address it in a note or addendum.

The best part of the baseball rules to me has always been that it leaves virtually NOTHING to the judgment of the umpire insofar as INTENT goes. For example, if the pitcher drops the ball while in contact with the rubber, is he trying to bait a runner into trying to advance? Is it just an accident? What if it rolls into foul ground? Is there intent to deceive? Baseball just says, eff it. If the pitcher drops the ball, it's a balk. Period. End of argument. If a batted ball hits a runner, he's out. No argument. Doesn't matter if he was trying to get out of the way or trying to let the ball hit him, or whatever. He's out. They need to get this right in the same way. Stopping your pitching motion is a balk. Putting your foot down on the ground is a step. Scraping your toe on the dirt is not a step.

DK said...

Does Kershaw balk, then?

Cautiously Pessimistic said...

Rules are meant to be interpreted. It's hard. Just look at swimming and the pull out controversy starting in 2008 with the "Kitajima Kick". It was a blatant violation of the rules, but because it was SO subtle, the swimming world said screw it and allowed it and changed the rules to match that. Since then, there's been like 5 rule changes just around that ONE thing.

So in my opinion, rather than add addendum after addendum to address loopholes, let the rules be the rules. Recognize there are gray areas and leave it to the umpires to define the demarcation line....just like the strike zone.

PotomacFan said...

Ryu got bombed again last night. His ERA is now 2.36. DeGrom didn't do particularly well either. I believe the Cy Young race is now between Max and DeGrom. Go Max!!

Ric said...

Both Ryu and Roberts claimed last week that fatigue is not the issue.

Fatigue is the issue. I love Ryu. But he's reached the end of the rope for this season. Will never happen, but I'd shut him down.

Anonymous said...

Matt Grace was DFAd to make room for Roenis today. Rizzo must have purchased the nude photos that Grace was holding over his head all year.

Mr. T said...

@Anon, I guess the Lerners couldn't help him out on that one.

Rendon is so good.

Sammy Kent said...

That was harder than it should have been, but it turned out OK in the end. Sloppy play on defense, less than stellar relief pitching--nothing new there-- and fly out after fly out after fly out on offense. Thanks, Kevin One Trick Pony Long. That elevate all the time theory works great in hitters parks when it's 90 degrees and the ball is carrying. It don't work so well on cool nights or in big parks (Colorado, Detroit) or in October when the weather turns cooler. You need to get another trick up your sleeve, son. And maybe give everybody a little extra bunting practice. We won the game last night because Howie Kendrick and Trea Turner and Anthony Rendon went small ball.

BxJaycobb said...

I know it’s the Marlins but damn. When Stras has all 3 pitches going he is just a joy to watch. I mean he seriously would have tossed a no hitter if he had come out hot and not taken an inning to get sharp. If Max can’t get back to his old self in a couple weeks (and it’s not totally obvious he will..backs are tricky and he pitches with a lot of intensity), Davey may have a tricky decision to make for the WC game. What if you’ve got a Cy Young contender at peak of his powers (who you know can dominate a great lineup in October) and Max ends September with a string of 5-6 inning 2-3 run just ok starts? Obviously if Stras ISNT dominating or Max can get it going it won’t be an issue I imagine....but it’s entirely possible it will become a question.

BxJaycobb said...

@Sammy: or just don’t sacrifice bunt with position players because it’s 2019 and it’s a terrible idea to give the team an out? (Particularly when it only successfully advances the runner like 50% of the time?) No analytics savvy team sac bunts with position players. Ever. The Astros and Dodgers have like zero all year. (And if you say well Parra sucks, I agree....which is why he shouldn’t be hitting 2nd and in that position.) Davey has blown so many rallies this year asking various people to bunt, whether its Robles or Eaton or whoever. Let people swing the bats.

BxJaycobb said...

@PotomacFan. It’s def not just down to DeGrom and Max. DeGrom is the sorta leader right now, with Soroka, Ryu, Stras, Corbin, Kershaw all in mix. Sort of a wide open race. I don’t think Max has pitched enough innings (and for same reason won’t be a leader in Ks or W or WAR either).....I frankly believe that Stras is more likely to win it than Max. He’ll likely be top or near top in IP, K, W....he basically needs to have a lights out September and get his ERA within same general area as DeGrom and the non-Ryu group. Right now it’s too high to win I would say. I say that about Max not only bc he missed so much time but also because I don’t think he will be unleashed and full MAX in final month. Soroka will probably not pitch a ton more innings. Stras has a legit chance. Even Corbin outside shot. Max would be tough with time missed.

BxJaycobb said...

@PotomacFan. I take it back. I just looked over the stats...Max has a chance. It’s DeGroms to lose though. If he has a great September nobody can catch him. Basically because (1) Max, Ryu, Soroka, and Kershaw can’t compete with him on volume and (2) Stras and Corbin can’t compete with him on rate stats. I think he controls his own destiny. If he slips, any of those guys could theoretically make a case if they pitch lights out in September. But I sort of think it will be either DeGrom (very likely IMO), Stras (if DeGrom slips and Stras is totally dominant so the ERA gap isn’t so big), Max (if he goes back to MAX quickly and DeGrom is mediocre enough that the IP gap isn’t enough of a separator), or Soroka (if Braves let him pitch and don’t put innings limit on him and again, DeGrom needs to slip up a bit). You can say Buehler or Corbin or Kershaw or Ryu could win too, but I doubt it. Ryu just hasn’t thrown many innings and he doesn’t have amazing K numbers, so his ERA really needed to be what distinguished him and that’s basically gone. Max and Stras have a shot though.

Anonymous said...

I have no idea how accurate it actually is as a predictive measure, but according to ESPN's "Cy Young Predictor" stat, Strasburg LEADS NL pitchers (Ryu is 2nd, Kershaw is 3rd) whereas Max and DeGrom aren't even in the top 10 (no doubt due to how heavily their formula weighs inning pitched and wins, respectively).

BxJaycobb said...

@Anon. Yeah exactly. The problem is that predictor is obviously just like way behind the times....for about 3-4 years now, voters have become much more analytics driven and care wayyyy less about wins on their own. To the point of them being almost irrelevant. To me they’re more like a tie breaker. But that’s it.

Sammy Kent said...

Forget six out of seven against Atlanta. If in the next two days we don't make up that game in the standings we lost yesterday, we're going to have to sweep both series against the Braves to have any chance at the division. Seven out of seven is about as likely to happen as Elvis buying me a new Cadillac tomorrow, but hey, I went to NC State and dreamed the impossible dream in 1983. As Jim Valvano said, "Don't give up. Don't ever give up."

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