This isn't hard. The Nats aren't battling a bunch of world beaters for the Wild Card. The Nats have gone 11-11 in their last 22 and have gone from being in WC1 with a 2 game lead all the way to being in WC1 with a 1 game lead. When we say the Nats control their own destiny it's meant in two ways - first they'll play all these teams down the stretch and can put distance between them in H2H games but in a broader sense I mean they are staring down a half dozen .500 teams who didn't make a strong push to get better at the trade deadline. If the Nats can simply play like they should - a few games over .500 in the remaining 49 games - say 26-23, that will be enough to make the WC game.
Winning now is good in part because the Nats haven't caught a hot team in a LONG time. Here's how the teams they have faced in the second half (starting with BAL bc PHI starts off fresh in my mind) fared in the series (for BAL) or two (everyone else) before playing the Nats
BAL 1-3
ATL 4-2 (but lost last 2 going in to Nats series)
COL 1-6
LAD 3-2 (but ditto - lost last 2 going in)
ATL 2-3
ARI 2-4
SFG 2-4*
The Mets though - even if they lose today the Mets are undeniably hot. The Mets are a rival. The Mets will be at home. That's a series where if the Nats win, and they throw out at least Corbin and Strasburg, will be a great jumping off point for what is a mostly benign rest of August. The offense has awakened a little - really started in the Braves series - the pitching has been all over the place after carrying the team for a while. It's also a series that if the Nats lose, assuming they win today, it's not a big deal. They'd still be up at least a game and a half on the Mets, almost certainly in a WC spot. But win today.
Suzuki had a big night last night and the Nats are finally using him as they should. He's had 3 of the 4 catcher B2B outings since July 20th. He does need rest but he should be playing at least 60% of the games. He's about there now. Hitting wise this is still the team you know it is Rendon and Soto lead, Turner does his thing and then you see who is hot. Right now it's Suzuki and Parra. Gomes was hot for a bit before that. There are cold batters. Eaton is fighting through one of those tough weeks (.167 / .265 / .267 in last 8). Robles is up against a real slump (.143 / .238 / .196 in last 16 games). Dozier is becoming very hit or miss - 5 multi hit games in the last 12, but only a .244 average. But as long as they have their Top 2, Turner isn't slumping, and someone else is stepping up it works out.
Elias got hurt and Strickland has been whatever but Hudson has been great and honestly if they have one of these three work out to be good - it's a win. Again three lotto tickets to scratch off in place of three scratched off losers. Doolittle has rebounded after a little bump, as has Rodney, so the Nats very much have a back-end of the pen currently. I don't actually trust Rodney in the long haul, but use that arm up while he's feeling good, then worry about who might replace him. As long as they have this that's one less inning to survive a game.
Win this game. Keep the Mets, and the rest of the WC group, at arm length. Give yourself the leeway for an on target road trip even if you lose to the Mets. The Nats aren't rolling anymore but they don't have to. Great baseball isn't needed anymore, just good. Keep it going
*when was the last time the Nats played a team that was definitely hot. Well, if you want you could say the Marlins in last June. They were 5-2 going into the Nats series. Of course they are the Marlins, and they won the last 4 in that stretch by a total of 6 runs. If you wanted to say then the Braves the series before that - who were 4-2 going in and not with a bunch of close wins, I wouldn't blame you. How'd the Nats do? 1-2 but baseball isn't a very predictive sport in the short run.
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17 comments:
Re: Robles - I wonder if it's a combination of him going through The Grind(TM) of his first MLB season, plus we're at the point where the league figured him out, and it's now on him to adjust to the adjustment. Even though this is his third season with ML Service Time, it's only his first full season.
Re NL East - the only way they win the division is getting August Mets-level hot or the Braves going July Mets-level cold, right? It doesn't feel like the Nats can really catch them by chipping away.
It seems like the Mets and Nats have had similar seasons, with large stretches of great play, large stretches of poor play, and several in-between stretches. I know baseball is a streaky sport, but the Mets and Nats in the big picture of 2019 seem extra streaky
Robles seems to have so much natural ability, but I wonder if he isn't a function of a new thought process where guys are called up earlier and earlier. To me, his swing still needs work as does his pitch recognition. It used to be that this would have been something he worked on at AAA, but now because of the Soto's and Harper's of the world, someone like Robles gets called up. His defense is good enough that he's a positive player, but maybe not what they were hoping for. Given that Eaton seems to be a shell of his former self after injuries, I wonder if they'll stand pat this offseason or bring someone in who can hit to play RF.
Robles is definitely still raw. His baserunning is a perfect example of that: tons of skill, poor execution. He'll figure it out after some time, hopefully sooner rather than later. I'd love to see his approach at the plate evolve into something more like Eaton's where you are a singly Joe 75% of the time, but can uncork one when needed.
As for the Nats positioning right now, I am worried about this Mets series. It sets up to be a potential sweep given the Mets are at home and throwing their big three. At the same time, if the Nats win the series, it could be a huge momentum boost. We'll see what happens
Just saw that Greg Holland was reportedly DFA'd by the D/Backs and could be a free agent if he refuses a minor league assignment...do we think the Nats would/should be interested?
@SuburbanSteve thinking the exact same thing!
@CautiouslyPessimistic Yes, the Mets series is looking ominous.
Holland - yes, if only bc there's a good chance he's better than Grace/Guerra and that's all that matters (though based on falling velocity I'd rest him up in a AAA gig if possible - pitch like once a week until call-ups)
The Nats should be interested in every reliever who hits the waiver wire so long as they're still running Grace and Guerra out there. Who knows, the next lotto ticket could be another Rodney. Also, was reading Jay Jaffe over at the site that shall not be named, and Rizzo has built quite a reputation for himself for not building decent bullpens, I wonder how much more rope he has in that department?
@CP Yeah, I think he figures it out too, but might he have been better served to figure it out at AAA? I don't know, but I definitely recognize a shift in thinking.
uh oh, hopefully Rendon getting pulled is precautionary. He goes down, season is definitely over
Who needs Max when you have Ross & Fedde?
I just wanted to just toss out this article which I found very good. The interesting takeaway is that, by at least some fielding metrics, Juan Soto has made himself a slightly above average outfielder; for example, he has been getting the third fastest jumps in baseball among all OF (timed as feet covered in the right direction within 1.5 seconds of contact). The short version of the piece is: Although it looks at first glance that Soto has basically stayed in place in his second year, he’s actually plugged the two holes in his game: (1) he now crushes off speed, and (2) he’s no longer a liability in the outfield. (By the way the defense thing tracks with at least my anecdotal viewing. He’s made a lot of good plays and I no longer see him making many bad plays or taking bad routes, although he’ll never have GREAT range, I assume). Anyway, well worth reading:
https://www.mlb.com/news/juan-soto-making-history-early-in-career
@Anon. Even if it’s precautionary, it really would suck to not have him against Mets. After losing Max JUST as we were about to get our shots at the Braves, can we not also lose our best hitter...
Raise your hand if you thought Fedde/Ross would go 3-0 on the road trip and put up 17 1/3 innings of zeros? They are due to regress, but I'll take any quality start from them I can get!
@Bx, I was listening to the Giants feed during yesterday's game and they were talking about Soto's better defensive metrics as well. Miller, Kuiper & Krukow are fantastic for many reasons, one of which being their genuine interest in other teams. They were a little peeved at the Parra HR though, and tried to play it off as "oh, the Giants didn't really need him and they picked up this other guy who's been very good so it's been good for both clubs..." which made me smile. But they made up for it by talking about Rendon with reverence.
At the other end of the universe is the Braves announcers. Total homers, with zero interest in any players who don't wear their uniform.
Dog days of August.
Unfortunately, Max took Stras's annual mid-summer hiatus. It's a crisis because it happened to the durable Scherzer not SS.
But the four/five starter depth issue may be less of a problem than expected.
First, pitchers coming back from TJ characteristically take time to find themselves, but when they do come back, they mostly play as they did before. If they tank, they tank. I'm betting that Ross is getting back to who he was --- which could mean 3/4 starter in the coming years. Fedde and Voth can continue top fight for number five.
Hard to believe that this back issue will end Max's year. He's been durable. Betting on his return as well.
A day off to get ready for the hot Mets. Should be an interesting series.
I am agreed with what Nattydread believe; pitchers surely coming back from TJ characteristically will take time to find on their ways, but when they do come back, they mostly be considered as they did before. Anyway, I'm betting in the hope that Ross is getting back to who he was --- which could mean 3/4 starter in the coming years. Fedde and Voth can continue big fight for number five. It’s hard to believe that this back issue will end Max's year. He's been durable. Betting on his return as well. I enjoyed the entire focused. 토토사이트
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