I always try to be fair and the optimistic take on the Nats weekend is - look they weren't planning on winning every series in this road trip. They were going to lose one and you can argue the Diamondbacks, despite having the worst record of the three teams they were going to play, are actually the most complete team. So it happened first. No biggy. Win the next two series and we're good.
Anyone buying that?
The realist take* is the Nats lost a series where they threw Strasburg and Corbin, losing those two games in fact, against a Diamondbacks team that is a .500 type squad. They weren't going to win every series but given the fact those two completely miss the SF series, the idea was that would be the one that they might lose. Instead now they have to rally and win a series they maybe shouldn't? Meanwhile the WC race gets super tight - 7 teams within 3.5 games of eachother - and there's a very hot Mets team that's one Marlins series away and Max still hasn't thrown off a mound. The season, that after looking lost, looked like a WC favorite run, is slipping back into a complete unknown.
But Hudson's been great!
So onto the Giants and a series that isn't must win, but it would make things so much easier if they did. The best case scenario if the Nats lose the series has them in this position :
WSN +0.5
STL
PHI -1
SFG -1.5
ARI -1.5
MIL -3
NYM -4.5
And this with STL, MIL, and the Mets getting swept (PHI and ARI are playing eachother) If you instead say the Mets beat MIA 3-1, MIL beats Pirates 2-1, STL loses to LAD 1-2...you get
STL +0.5
WSN
PHI -1
MIL -1
SFG -1.5
ARI -1.5
NYM -1.5
Talk about a scrum.
Anyway onto the Giants.For real this time
The Giants are a capable offense with a couple big holes. Crawford is haivng a terrible year and whoever is playing the 3rd OF slot - be it Pillar or Duggar are also well below average. Even a hot July can't hide this. But they were a team with four holes and the rise of Austin Slater and the acquisition of Scooter Gennett have put two more decent bats in the line-up over terrible ones. In fact right now you could argue they have some bat log jams. Vogt can hit but is blocked by Posey and Belt. Sandoval can hit but is (sort of) blocked by Belt and Longoria who just returned from injury. It's not like there is a great bat being held back here but it must be frustrating to see two obvious holes in your line-up and have two decent bats on the bench but have them not line-up at all in a way that you can make that fix. It does end up giving the Giants a very healthy bench though and the 2nd best OPS for PH in the NL. Remember that if it's close late.
Where the Giants excel is having the best reliever ERA in the NL. They aren't exactly the same post-trade deadline but they still go four deep. Will Smith is great. Reyes Moronta is nearly so as is exhibit #24 in relievers get better after leaving the Nats, Trevor Gott. Tony Watson isn't as good as his ERA but he's still decent, certainly for the fourth man out. This depth gave them the ability to trade away Sam Dyson (also very good) and Mark Melancon (good when healthy and even good for the Nats!) The rest of the pen is filled with new arms replacing some of the ones they sold off. Sam Selman is the key - as he's always had great stuff - unhittable swing and miss stuff, but been incredibly wild. This year he seemed to get that under control but has had a rough start to his Giants career. If he can get it together that's 5 good ones and that's enough. The other guys are Blazek types - not good in AAA but hey - someone has to be here.
The match-ups are as follows
Fedde vs Samardzjia. You know - outside of last year's injured campaign, Samardzjia has been mostly good. You kind of got a feeling like him and Cueto didn't come over and do what they were supposed to but they mostly did when healthy. The line-up dying is what killed this team. Anyway. He's been REALLY good in July. There isn't anything particularly good about him, he just pitches well mixing up 4+ pitches to keep hitters off balance. Fedde was terrible last time out - if you can remember his brief shellling. Giants edge
Sanchez vs TBD Last cycle it was Dereck Rodriguez but he got crushed by Philly. Their long man in the pen is Andrew Suarez who has been terrible this year. I got no idea who it could be and haven't seen anything about it. Against that you have to favor Sanchez even if he wasn't all that good last time out.
Ross vs Shaun Anderson Ross had one good start (not great - he did walk 5 remember) and everyone is ready to say 5th starter might be solved. Well maybe but let me see him do it again. Shaun Anderson is a former Nats draftee (didn't sign - it was a HS low rounder thing, not a Nats failure) who's a rookie. He was good enough in the PCL and looks to be a decent long-run back rotation type. Hittable but as a groundbally control guy that's expected. With a tweak in his control and K will be a fine #4, but might not be there yet. I don't like Ross but I can't exactly give the Giants the edge here in starters. So push... but Giants at home so an ever so slight edge to them for the game if you twist my arm
Seems like this could easily go 2-1 in either direction. Make it the right one
*The pessimist take? The Nats are 9-11 in their last 20 games. The "tough stretch" fooled us into accepting an off set, but more importantly without Max and with no major trade cavalry this is a team headed back down slowly but surely - only kept in the race for the next few weeks by the fact the rest of the NL stinks too.
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36 comments:
Gotta say, I agree with the pessimistic take. Feel like the Nats will tread water for a while but ultimately fall back. Any day now I expect to lose Stras to the IL as per his usual.
I think the pessimistic take is only overly so to the extent that Max comes back and performs as Max.
This team without Max is a borderline WC team at best, and our play since the All Star break has been at that level. We're not bad, and we can win some games even against pretty good teams, but we're not clearly better than anyone except the really bad teams and there's absolutely no reason to expect us to be the one of the OK teams that lucks into a wildcard spot.
Yeah, 8:48 Anon has it right. With Max, our top three starters are #1,6, and 12 in pitcher fWAR, which is kind of insane. Sanchez is good. The offense is good. The bullpen is better than it was at this time last week and worlds better than it was in April. That's a team with a clear path to a WC, and an outside shot at the division title. (I mean, the Braves also just went 1-2 over the weekend, and against a worse team than the Nats played. They're legitimately better, but not invincible.)
Without Max, the Nats are probably missing the playoffs unless somebody gets really good really quick. Replacing the literal best pitcher in baseball with the #7 starter (which is what Ross is, because Voth and Fedde are both ahead of him and the only reason Ross is up at all is that Voth is hurt) would gouge anyone except the Dodgers, who seem to pull pitching stars out of the same miracle pit that makes any career minor leaguer the Yankees throw into their lineup rack up a 125 wRC+. A no-Max Nats basically can't afford for Stras and Corbin to be mortal at all, let alone both on the same weekend. It's not rocket science to say that a team built around strong starting pitching to cover for a weak bullpen is not going to do well if the starters flag.
Don't forget that Hellickson was probably better than all four, so you could say 8th in terms of results. I would say Voth was at best 8th on the depth chart, given how long it took to give him a shot.
I agree with all this - Max is the key. Not that with him the Nats are in, but with him (and Stras and Corbin and no big offensive injury) it's hard not to make the Nats favorites. That may sound too positive but look at the other WC teams and come back to me. Without Max they are just another WC level team. They could bounce around and make it or fall out.
Agreed about Max.
Wow, what a difference a few games makes on 538. I think in two games the Nats went from 67% playoff odds to 47%. Meanwhile, Mets are all the way up to 24%, and that could climb if they take care of business against the Marlins. 538 considers the Mets to be a better team than Philly, Arizona, SF, and Milwaukee (though Philly has higher playoff odds due to record). That will be a tough series facing them on the road.
Fangraphs, on the other hand, is much more optimistic about the Nats, putting them at 72.7% playoff odds (though Mets are also at 28.6%, while Philly only at 21.2%!
FG consistently is more optimistic than 538 on the Nats. Its almost like they are the "Max will be back soon, and will be Max again" website, vs. 538 is the opposite.
I don't put much stock in Strasburg and Corbin's starts. People forget that Arizona is basically Coors Field-lite. It's essentially arena baseball. However, the one thing I would say about Ross is that he was effective with the slider, which is big because it had almost completely disappeared and was his best pitch prior to TJ. So there's some room for optimism, however, his ceiling is really that of a #5 starter. So even if the slider is back, he's still not great.
Also, I agree with everyone else, the Nats with Max are WC favorites, without Max, I think they miss the playoffs entirely.
Agree with everyone. With Max this team is better than the rest of the contenders for the wildcard. Without him, they're not better. Some games (like the last Ross start) it won't matter, but most games it will.
I'd argue that the reason this effects the Nats so heavily is because Max is so good, not because Ross is worse than most team's first guy brought up from AAA. The difference between Helickson, Ross, Voth, Fedde and any #5 starter is pretty small. The difference between any of them and Max is huge.
Just looking at the 538 pitcher scoring shows how important Max is to the Nats. There really isn't another team with a comparable pitching situation.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/pitchers/
It's crazy we don't even have a timeline of his return
Great all the pessimists are back after one lost series.This is the same group that wanted to trade everyone including Max, Stras and Tony two bags back in May. look at it this way, we are in a wild card race that never would have happened if rizzo had listened to all the amateur GMs on this site. Good thing he ignores all of you.
Now let's get onto some important. Our blog writer in chief lost all three of his predictions in the AZ series. Let's hope you are betting on your predictions. I would hate to see the blog go into foreclosure.
Hey, Cracka X, I need a laugh. You told me the boy wonder would have a four war by the year end and each WAR was worth 9M. So the Boy Wonder was worth 36M. So far the Boy Wonder has a 1.7War and 18 homers. Give me 500 words about how he is worth 36M this year so we can all have a laugh at your expense.
There are 23 games left in August. If the Nats are serious contenders, and assuming Max doesn't come back in that window, they need to go 14-9 in my book. Win the 4 against the dregs (O's and Marlins), then win/split every other series except @ the Cubs. If you lose a series, better make it up with a sweep. That's just the reality of the situation in my book. That puts the Nats at 72-62 and on pace for 87 wins. Solidly still in the hunt with Max Scherzer hopefully coming back for the home stretch in September.
@ssln: “This is the same group that wanted to trade everyone including Max, Stras and Tony two bags back in May.” Lumping every commenter on this blog into one opposing opinion does no good. If you know who you’re talking about, call that person out. Because I’m pretty sure no more than a singular person called for trading Max. It wasn’t me. But we’re all part of it I guess? Is this a you against the world type of complex?
Hey Harper, you are now four for four on your last four predictions. I hope you can afford to pay off your bookie. You should consider giving up predicting these games or try a dart board instead of looking at the starting pitchers.
Anon
I printed individual quotes on the Rosenthal signing and everyone had hurt feelings. I was labelled a troll. Come up with another alternative and while you are doing that get Cracka and BX to write a post justifying the salary paid to the Boy Wonder. While you are at it, figure out all the guys who wanted us to sign Kimbrel because he just went on the DL and has like a 5 ERA. You take the time to call them out individually because I never see anyone saying I got that one wrong on the blog.
I will say that I was very much against signing Kimbrel. And so that news makes me feel justified. BUT his ERA is misleading because the runs he’s given up have only occurred in 3 games, 2 of those being when he first came back. Otherwise, he’s thrown up zeroes on every inning. And whose to say the injury would’ve have happened if he were a Nat and not a Cub. I want really badly to tell everyone that I was right. But, Kimbrel has been pretty effective, and you can’t predict injury.
Wow. Go figure. Ross (and new bullpen) throw a 1 hitter. Fedde (and new bullpen) throw a shutout. Strasburg and Corbin get bombed. I suppose that's why they play the games.
@JDB: You can kind of say the same thing about the Nats' signing of Fernando Rodney, though. All of the runs scored on him as a Nat came in three games, too, and he's pitched more games than Kimbrel (and one of those three was in his third game in a row right after pitching both halves of a doubleheader). And Kimbrel's also allowed multiple baserunners in four more of his games. Injury or no injury, he certainly hasn't been worth 3x$14M.
@PotomacFan: Yeah, weird indeed! Baseball is a funny game...
To be fair, ssln, its pretty easy to never be wrong when you only take a stance after-the-fact. Hindsight is always 20/20, and so you sir, are 100% correct in everything you say. And I'm pretty sure everyone here thought you were a troll long before you realized it.
After an innocuous comment on the last post didn't get any response, ssln has returned to his bread-and-butter. And not a moment too soon, if you ask me! A lot of you people around here have been getting mighty uppity, thinking you know a thing or two about the Nationals, baseball, or life. Well pay attention folks, for a mind of ssln's caliber does not come around every day. I for one will save my tears for when he is gone; for now, let us rejoice that he is here to light the path for those of us who dwell in darkness.
@Other Anon - how would he even know who was calling for trading Max? I SAY TRADE MAX
Anything to poke the ssln bear / someone who claimed to be Harper's brother / someone who posts as anon themselves sometimes to get a response to his own posts.
Good win last night, hopefully Giants stay on fumes the rest of the series. Would be great to get a hand from Arizona and Miami.
@PotomacFan My thoughts exactly!
@ssln I will take up your challenges! First, on 'predictions': actually, Harper IS 4 for 4. Because he didn't actually predict anything. He simply said something like, 'Nats have edge here, DBacks/Giants have edge here', etc. And 538 backs him up: notice that each game that he said, 'Nats have the edge' or the opposite, that team, per 538, had a >50% chance of winning.
Note also that 'Team X has the edge' doesn't equate to 'Team X has 100% of winning the game'. So to translate Harper's 'edge' language into ironclad interpretations would be to misread him.
Now, onto me. I can't find the comment I made about Bryce's contract, but I don't deny the $36 mil number. However, I will say that, like Harper, I nuanced my language. I'm pretty sure I said something to the effect of, 'He could be worth that this year' and not 'He 100% definitely will be worth that this year'.
So far, per Fangraphs, Bryce's been worth $20mil. Based on his rest-of-season projections, he should end up with about $30 mil or so in value. Now if he outperforms projections, he could be worth more. And the opposite is true too.
I think the larger point on Bryce's contract (which I'm pretty sure I made last time too) is simply that its too early to judge his contract. There's around 12.3 more years left, so plenty of time for him to excel or fade.
And now I'll issue you a challenge: how much on-field value do you think Bryce will generate over the life of his contract?
Clearly ssln does not understand probability and predictions. Anybody could clearly see that Harper did not make any predictions. He simply stated one team or the other had an edge, or a certain matchup favored another team. And we all know that in baseball even the strongest team playing the weakest team is only about a 2:1 favorite. I'm surprised that someone who knows so much about economics knows so little about probability.
Guys we all know deep down the comments are more fun if someone is trying to stir the pot...if you didn't know Fedde was going to get his 3rd Quality Start of the season last night, you're a chump say I!
Could the fact that Fedde and Ross 'pitched' so well have anything to do with the opposite teams discounting them and focusing on the other starters? Maybe AZ looked past Ross and focused on Strasburg and Corbin?
What effect does a 'Star' have on the play executing just prior to him?
Cracka
Thanks for answering the post. Let's take a look at a comparison of Bryce. There is our left fielder. Juan Soto. As of today he has a 3.7 WAR, 21 homers and a .285 average. His war is 1.4 higher than the Boy Wonder. If Juan keeps up the pace he will finish with a WAR between 4.6 and 5 or in your view at 9M per each war, he is worth 42-45M. Therein lies the problem with your methodology. Look at the Nats and you will see the players WAR adds up to between 45-50. If WAR was really worth 9M then they would have a payroll of 400-450M.
The problem is the cap. If you are going to have a cap of 175M or 200M and a total WAR of 50, each WAR is only worth 3.75-4.0M. That is why your numbers are way off and Bryce will be lucky to put up number that justify about 12-16M.
Ssln - Isn't your calculation of WAR value skewed by including rookies/players on their initial contract, where the salary is more rigidly set by the league (or players' union or whatever)? That results in a lot of really good players being underpaid relative to what their performance would fetch on an open market. I think only FA contracts should be considered there.
Robot
Players on their rookie contracts like Soto are way underpaid. But that doesn't change the fact that you can't value WAR at 9M. If Bryce was a Nat, would you say Bryce is entitled to 25M because we are cheating the guys on rookie contracts under the collective bargaining agreement? Believe it or not, that is what you just argued. There is no other player in the majors with Bryce's stats making 25M although Machado may be as big a bust.
Josh
Interesting comment that only the strongest team playing the weakest teams will be favored by 2 to 1.
So let's learn home Vegas sets the line on games. It has nothing to do with teams. Vegas looks at the starting pitchers and who is the home team. Only the best pitchers in baseball get a 2-1 or a 2.5-1 advantage. You can name them off the top of your head, Max, Stras, Degrom, Verlander, Kershaw. You get the picture.
It is all about pitching matchup in setting the odds. Cleveland is obvious a better team than the White Sox. But if Cleveland has its no 5 starter going against Giolito and the White Sox are at home the Sox are going to be favored or at worse a slight underdog at plus 110. Look at the lines and you will see most lines are at minus 120 or minus 140 which means the favorite is only a 6 to 5 or 7 to 5 favorite. Cincinnati is going nowhere but they will still win more than 45% of their games.
Baseball isn't like football. Teams are much closer in talent than you think. That's why you don't see many series sweeps. Orioles v Nats 1-1. No sweep.
As for Harper call it predictions or whatever makes your day. He is 4 for 4 in my book and making me a ton of money. Keep up the good work because I'm rooting for you tonight.
Um, that's not at all what I argued...
How is the current status of Max not a bigger story with our beat writers? This once again proves to me that the Nats beat writers all stink.
It will be interesting to see what wins out over the course of the rest of the year - Davey's eternal optimism or Davey's poor feel for in game decisions.
Harper
I had planned to congratulate you on breaking your losing streak because every losing streak has to come to an end at some point. But your readers pointed out to me that you weren't really making predictions, so that means there is no reason to congratulate you.
Unfortunately, what this means is that if you speculate on any thing in the future, but don't specifically label it a "prediction", it will consigned to the realm of idle chatter.
You have a tough crew here.
Robot
Okay, so you didn't like the first answer so here is why you are wrong. Mike trout who would have been a free agent this year has a 7.4 WAR and is headed to a 10 WAR. He would not have gotten a contract for 90M a year because there wouldn't have been enough money for the Angels to put together a team. Free agents don't get 9M a year for projected WAR. You think someone is paying Rendon 45M a year for his 5 plus WAR this year?
I didn't (and still don't) take a position on what the value of one WAR is. I simply pointed out that any attempt to do so probably should not treat the price of WAR under a rookie contract the same as the freely negotiated price. There are other factors to consider, including salary cap.
Repeatedly screaming that Trout doesn't deserve $90M isn't a rebuttal.
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