Nationals Baseball: Monday Quickie - Making the move

Monday, August 26, 2019

Monday Quickie - Making the move

A sweep! Over stupid Maddon and his... well I don't think they are stupid, but they just won a title three years ago so they don't need another one Cubs! After basically hitting target after target the Nats smashed the simple "don't get swept" and put themselves in real position to put the Wild Card away.  5 games against the Orioles and Marlins. 4-1 minimum acceptable. Already 4 games up on the 2nd WC and 5.5 on the first out, doing that would likely add a game at least to both those sets. 5 up on the 2nd WC and 6.5 on the first out with a month to play? That's ALMOST there. They have stumbled here and there to even things out.  A stumble here (say 2-3) would be pretty terrible.

Now of course Nats fans, seeing very good baseball - great baseball even, for 3 months now aren't really satisfied with a WC but that's the hole they dug.  We mentioned how they probably wouldn't catch the Braves and even a 12-2 run got the Nats all of a half-game on the 11-2 Braves.  Their seasons have been remarkably balanced

5/24 - 6/14?  Nats 12-6, Braves 13-6
6//22 - 7/13?  Nats 12-4, Braves 12-5
7/14 - 8/10? Nats 12-12, Brves 13-13
since 8/11? Nats 12-2, Braves 11-2

Now I may be off a game here or there but it's a crazy pattern of great baseball with one long stretch where they both dipped. You may have noticed a week out there - the Braves went 4-3 and the Nats 5-2 but in all honesty if we frame these runs a little different there's a stretch from mid June to basically the start of July where the Nats were a couple games better.  But that's it. One 15 game stretch in the past 80 where one team really outpaced the other. Makes it hard to catch a team.

So the Wild Card! That would be new! It'll be fun to talk about.  But not yet.

The question for Nats fans, as they play this last easy stretch (they'll have one more easy series after this but that's it) is can things work out such that they aren't playing Mets, Twins, Cards, Phillies, and Cleveland teams fighting for their playoff lives? I'm sure we can work something out.

At this point what's clear is the Nats picked a perfect year to start disastrously.  Right now the second WC plays out to be an 86 win team. That's be the worst WC team in NL since they went to two and tied for the 2nd worst WC ever. Early in the year we wondered if the NL would produce a super division. Maybe the East with the Nats, Braves, Phillies, and Mets. Or the Central with a Cubs, Cards, Brewers set.  Maybe Colorado and the Dbacks would both shine.  Turns out nearly all of those teams are .500 squads. Not only that but they are .500 squads who didn't really care to get better. A bunch of teams with mid 80s win talent that see a mid 80s win team making the playoffs so saying "why try?".  It's the perfect situation for a low 90s win team back on their feet to make a run.

It's close. It's almost here. Nats are preparing for the dismount. Don't screw it up.

47 comments:

Ole PBN said...

Saw that Doolittle should be back once his "knee" feels better. Curious on how people feel about him being the defacto closer once he's back? I took a look at his game log and found a peculiar game. Remember May 18th, when Maddon protested Doo's delivery? Our closer's comments after the game were pointed, saying he didn't appreciate the criticism. Here's an intersting line:

Before/including May 18: 20 G / 21 IP / 4 ER / 1.71 ERA
Since May 18: 34 G / 31 IP / 21 ER / 6.10 ERA

Even if you exclude his 10 runs in 5 outings, he's put up a 3.67 ERA (not terrible, but hardly up to his level of success). Overuse? Mental?

Ole PBN said...

Worth mentioning, his very next outing after the May 18 game (May 22), he gives up 4 runs to the Mets to blow the game without even recording an out. Then gives up another run in his next outing on 5/24.

coolsny said...

@Ole PBN

I would favor a closer by committee arrangement going forward, working matchups and using Daniel Hudson more in the 9th if needed.

I know it probably won't happen, but if Doolittle could stomach it, it might be to the benefit of all.

Don't think Rodney can be trusted in hi-leverage situations though - he is too inconsistent.

JQ said...

@Ole PBN - Is it possible that he modified his delivery and this affected his performance and may have even contributed to the knee?

@Harper - I'm anxiously waiting on the post concerning year end awards. Stras and Max likely both in the mix for Cy, Rendon in the mix for MVP?, DM will surely get some looks for mgr of the year. It'll be interesting to see the local reaction to this as well as the national perspective.

538 now has the Nats as a near lock for playoffs and the 4th best team in baseball at the moment. I'm glad nobody important agreed when I said we should sell and try to build toward future years. This is going to be a fun ride.

Josh Higham said...

This year has been delightful for me. The first two months were awful, and I still think Davey is a bad manager who is not really getting any better, BUT. In the past, when I have given up on the team in early May (2015 and 2018), they have folded and not really made any serious push or improvement, so I was playing out the string as much as the team was. This year, I started with high hopes, was immediately crushed and became apathetic, but have gradually become more excited about the season and appreciative of the players. Is this what a compelling team is like?

Ole PBN said...

@JQ - I certainly think that a modified delivery resulted in poor performance. But the knee? I think that was a made up excuse to give him a much-needed rest. Same reason that Rosenthal went to the IL for a "viral infection." No comments from Doo or the staff about his knee other than that was reason for the IL trip. Every time a legit injury that sends the guy to the IL comes up, its reported on (how long its been bothering him, x-rays negative, etc.) We got none of that for Doo's knee. Just funny is all.

coolsny said...

if matt williams can win manager of the year then DM can certainly win

PotomacFan said...

NL MVP: Bellinger or Yelich will win it, and deserve to win it. Rendon should come in 3rd, with the majority of 3rd place votes. However, I expect Acuna to come in 3rd, with Rendon in 4th.

NL Cy Young: If Max can stay healthy, and keep his ERA in the near 2.50 and get more innings and strikeouts, he should win. Ryu had a clear advantage until the Yankees clobbered him. I don't think Ryu can win unless his ERA is under 2.00 (currently it is 2.00) and/or Max gets injured again or is less effective than prior to his injury. deGrom, Kershaw, Buehler, Soroka all have a shot, too.

Manager of the Year: (1) Snitker (ATL); (2) Martinez; (3) Schildt (if STL wins the Central). No team in NL outperformed its expectations this year, although many are underperforming. Dave Roberts will get votes, but the Dodgers have so much talent I don't think it takes anyone special to manage them.

Anonymous said...

Harper, when are we going to get the (inevitable, for those of us paying attention) mea culpa post from you where you recognize that the Phillies are a bad team and have been a bad team all season, with a W-L record that simply does not reflect the team's quality? After losing a series to the Marlins (!), including one game in which their (objectively terrible) pitching staff gave up 19 runs (again to the Marlins!), they are now 4-4 during the stretch you predicted them to go 11-4. It's time...

Natitude said...

What are the Nats going to do when Zimm is ready to play and it is time to bring Kieboom up? Things are going so good now I hate to see anything rock the boat.

Harper said...

Ole PBN - I'm fine with it in part bc it looks like Nats will be too far behind to get the East and too far ahead to lose WC1. Let him back and see how he does. There is that couple game leeway to figure it out.

Josh - compelling season, yes. Compelling seasons make you appreciate teams more. Maybe more than you should (see 2005)

Anon @ 8;46 - Maybe! Though I think they take the series if Bryce isn't off on paternity leave. Didn't factor that into my 11-4.

Natitude - Kieboom will ride the bench - why not? Zimm is a bigger issue. Test of Davey's skill for sure.

AWARDS
haven't looked at it much but quick thoughts are
MVP - think Bellinger takes it easy with LA being so dominant and MIL missing playoffs.

CY - a big mess bc wins and pitching don't line up. Max best Nat, Stras more wins. Ryu best Dodger, Kershaw more wins. Soroka best Brave - Fried more wins. And none of these win guys are bad (though Fried won't win). If Ryu keeps his ERA close to 2.00 he'll win be novelty of that. If not - it's too up in the air right now. Even deGrom has a chance to dominate down stretch, get Mets in and win it

ROY - It's Alonso's to lose as he should end up with 50 homers and 130 RBI, but Soroka isn't too far behind so Alonso can't cruise to it.

MOY - If the Dodgers win 105ish then Roberts will get it. If they are closer to 100 then it's up in the air. Davey will get notice but it'll be hard to vote for him if the Braves finish 6 games better. Snitker is next in line. If Braves squeak out East Davey has a chance.

BxJaycobb said...

All I want to say is...for the love of god do NOT start giving Kendrick’s ABs to Zim. That guy is an animal barreling up like every pitcher he sees. He’s been so amazing this year and needs to play more, not only against lefties.

Treaples69 said...

I saw that Zimmerman is playing well on rehab. With all the veteran players with no options on the team can we just wait till sept 1st to make all of these moves. Elias Doolittle and Zimmeran could easilly be ready to come back this week. Now i wouldnt mind releasing Grace and fedde could be optioned but with weak schedule it may make sense just too push these guys back till sunday with orioles and marlins on deck

BxJaycobb said...

@Harper. Re CY, if Ryu rests down the stretch or starts falling apart, my money is on DeGrom to repeat. I think it might be a few starts until Max is back to normal, and he has such an IP deficit now that I’m not sure he can catch up. I think you have to have DeGrom currently ahead of him. He is the only pitcher who doesn’t have a specific weakness/reason he probably shouldn’t win: Ryu might get rested by Dodgers and his FIP suggests he benefits a ton as a non K guy from LAD defense; Stras’s ERA isn’t good enough I don’t think, despite his W and K strengths; Max has IP problem, as does Soroka. DeGrom though is good everywhere and he is only one of the named people who is top 5 in IP.....plus he will likely be the WAR leader, although Max might be able to stay the leader if he turns it up quickly.

G Cracka X said...

@BxJ Good thoughts on Cy. DeGrom was outstanding in his last outing, but didn't get the win. If he pitches like that for the next month, he will become the front-runner.

@Treaple I don't think they will release Grace. I'm guessing that since he had a good 2017, management wants to retain him for next year to see if he bounces back.

@Harper I would be absolutely disappointed with 2-3, but going 2-3 in context with the Wrigley sweep isn't much different than going 1-2 vs. the Cubs (meeting the "Don't get swept" criteria) and then going 4-1 against the Os and Marlins. Both upcoming are very bad, but each could take a game or two. Os split with the Nats last time

Anonymous said...

Time for DM to think of Doo and Hudson sharing the closer role on alternating days so both stay rested down the stretch.

BxJaycobb said...

I do think that it makes sense because we don’t have a shut down lefty to use Strickland and Doolittle in set up roles and mix and match then use Hudson as closer. I’m also fine with Doo returning as closer if he’s got the jump back on his fastball. But that sort of also depends on Elias being effective against lefties, and I don’t think he is. Otherwise, we don’t have a matchup lefty for the 6-8 innings .

Anonymous said...

yadiel hernandez time?

Anonymous said...

Doo is our closer and I am going to send him out there almost every day because he is the closer and a closers job is to close and I am the manager of the year...

Sammy Kent said...

The Lerners just got another ~$300 million from that crapcake Angelos. When do we get Rendon's long term contract finalized?

BxJaycobb said...

When the Lerners fail to extend Rendon after the guy puts up a 1.000+ OPS year where he wins the batting title and knocks in 120 RBI, I’m going to need an in depth explanation from them about how they plan to spend the 30 million dollars not going to him.

G Cracka X said...

I want the Nats to re-sign Rendon. However, I don't think its a slam dunk case. It depends on how much money he wants, and for how many years. He'll be 30 next year. The defense appears to be in decline, and will probably continue as he ages. He's currently hitting .329 with basically 30 HRs, but the 3-year ZiPS projections has him hitting about .280 for the next three years with the same walk rate (about 10%) and only 20 HRs.

To re-iterate: I'd like the Nats to re-sign him. But I also view the situation like the Bryce situation last off-season. To re-sign is good, but if they have a decent alternative plan, that's fine too.

PotomacFan said...

@G Cracka X: In hindsight (although I said it last year as did many others), Rendon should have been re-signed before the season began. I don't disagree that at Age 30 we will start to see a regression. But Rendon hits well enough so that putting him at first base at age 35 is not the end of the world. But it's not the same as Bryce. The Nats had Soto to replace Bryce. Unless Kieboom is really good, really fast, they don't have anyone to replace Rendon. And even if Kieboom is really good, the Nats also need a second baseman. So long as Rendon doesn't demand a Bryce-like overpay, I think the Nats need to re-sign him.

Next topic: will Strasburg exercise his option? Losing both Rendon and Strasburg would be a huge setback to the Nats for 2020.

Anonymous said...

@G Cracka X

I'm pretty much in the same boat - the team's fortunes pretty much can't by definition depend on a single market rate or near market rate deal for any player.

I really like Rendon. He's been great for us, and I really like how different he is from other ballplayers. It's especially interesting and fun to watch him play even controlling for how good he is relative to the average player, and I think that will hold during the rest of his career. So, yeah, I suppose I'm rooting for him to be re-signed.

But as long as the team keeps a payroll up around the penalty limit, and as long as they continue to be above average at drafting, scouting, developing etc, we'll be in a position to have interesting games in September and October, and that's the biggest determinant for how much enjoyment I can get from following the team. (Aside from ethical stuff that transcends sports altogether...)

SuburbanSteve said...

...but that egs the question: would not re-signing Rendon be ethical?

Jay said...

If you can't re-sign Rendon then who will they re-sign? He is a great player at a position of need. He is loved by his teammates (unlike Harper). He doesn't have a huge ego. He is very involved in the community through the Nats Academy. He puts the team above himself (see this year's all start game). I would argue that if they don't sign Rendon then there is no need to grow attached to Soto, Robles, Turner, even Kieboom. You can't spend last off season telling the fanbase that you can't sign Harper because you want to sign Rendon and then not sign Rendon. Rendon has a very comparable contract in Nolan Arenado. If they don't sign Rendon, then imo it is bc the Lerners don't want to sign him at a fair price. I'm probably done with the team at that point. I'll cheer for the freaking Dodgers or maybe even the Braves.

Ric said...

The Lerners are unable to extend Rendon now. They could have at the beginning of the season. I don't fault them for waiting. But there is no way, with 30 games left in the season, that Rendon/Boras will not check out free agency.

Bash the Lerners if you think it was a slam dunk to sign him months ago. But, there is nothing the Lerners can do now. Boras doesn't play that game.

(And yes, the caveat is that the Lerners could right offer him a record-breaking AAV contract. But even if that happened, Boras would probably hold off. There's no reason NOT to check out free agency at this point.)

Anonymous said...

I'm with @Ric. Live in the now anyways and enjoy it, worry about signing Ant in the offseason.

My hope is that the Lerner's told Rizzo - get back under the cap for the season and you can have Tony.

Or, we say screw it, pay for Cole and a bunch of top relievers with that money.

Lets go Nats/Brewers/Cubs/Pirates/Toronto.

coolsny said...

Honestly, what do you guys expect the Lerners/Nats to do with these Boras clients? Boras clients test free-agency. That is where the bidding wars happen and players get the most money, and that is the driving philosophy of the Boras Corporation. That's what they do. Strasburg was an outlier who forced Boras to keep him in DC.

The Lerners' perhaps imprudently got involved with too many Boras-repped players, but to bash them for not extending Rendon is misdirected I think. I don't think any one of us knows the truth about any of these contract negotiations, but what we do have to go on is that Boras (successfully) drives his players to test free agency.

Please correct me if I'm wrong, because I love to bash ownership (especially those who made their money in real estate), but I think blaming anyone other than Rendon and Boras for the future of our 3B is silly. Unless you want an overpay...

G Cracka X said...

Random fun fact: going into tonight's game, Gomes has a higher OBP than Suzuki, despite having a batting average that is 50 points lower.

Ole PBN said...

I think offering Rendon somewhere in the realm of 7/$210M ($30M AAV) is the highest I'd go. Arenado got 8/$260 ($32.5M AAV), and I don't think that Rendon has the age, the defense, and the resume that Arenado has. 7/210 is fair IMO.

If he doesn't take that, you can't fault the Lerners. If its filled with deferrals and Rendon explicitly said he won't take a deal with deferrals (like Bryce apparently said), then you can fault the Lerners. Like Ric and coolsny said, this needed to be executed before the season began.

And I'm saying it now, so that 6 years later we hopefully don't get in the same situation... extend Soto now please? It's hard to root for a team that has a revolving door of players and the only constant is the overvalued cripple at 1B. The collective talent on the roster wins games, winning expands the fan base, but you have to make an effort to keep some of these fan favorites... and trying after their last game in our uniform is indeed too late.

coolsny said...

Again, it's not going to happen with Soto, man. He is repped by Boras. He is not going to sign before his rookie contract is up - but in the off chance that he does, it won't be for anything less than a record-setting extension. It won't be a team friendly deal that Albies and Acuna got in Atlanta.

If the Lerner's were smart and interested in team friendly deals, they should avoid signing so many young Boras clients. Boras is a different animal.

Cautiously Pessimistic said...

You don't extend anyone right now until the next CBA comes through. It's pretty damn clear that the next CBA is going to revamp how free agency, rookie contracts, and arbitration work given the last couple offseasons and teams trending towards younger cheaper talent.

If I'm the Lerners, I give Rendon something in the range that Ole PBN suggested. If he takes it, great. If he doesn't, Rizzo's got some work to do. But any talk of extending Soto or Turner or whoever right now is silly because the Lerners could end up shooting themselves in the foot with the new CBA upcoming.

Ole PBN said...

@coolsny - I agree with about Boras. His goal is to take his clients to FA, OR get them the biggest pay day possible (which yes, usually is in FA). But the client is repped by the agent, not owned by the agent. If a player truly wanted to stay and if the difference between $100M and $130M isn't much of a concern to the player, they are going to prioritize different things. Like family stability, comfort/familiarity, and longevity in a place they love. Bryce spoke out of both sides of his mouth when he said he wanted that (which we were offering him) and said he found that in Philly--ironically with a higher price tag. Stras prioritized differently, and I don't think its fair to say that Soto won't do the same just because he's a Boras client. The player controls his destiny and Rendon can decide to stay today, tomorrow, or the 400 days prior to now. He didn't. His choice, not Boras'.

Also, until owners have control over which agent their players sign with, I don't understand how anyone can fault the owners and say they should avoid signing so many young Boras clients.

Jay said...

Rendon repeatedly stated in spring training that Boras works for him and not the other way around. Thus my point earlier. If they don't sign Rendon then they're not signing anyone at close to market value. You can't spend the offseason stating you're not signing Harper bc you want to sign Rendon and then not sign Rendon. Look at their roster. Zimm's salary falls off next year. The only high salary guys are Scherzer, Strasburg, and Corbin (granted that is a ton of money). Every other position not counting what you do at 3rd base is cheap. Soto, Robles, Eaton, Turner, Kieboom, 1st base?, Suzuki and Gomes are all relatively cheap. I'm not going to waste my time watching guys develop and grow and then leave town like DC is a small market team. The Lerners are the richest owners in baseball. They were just awarded $300 million in the MASN dispute. I will admit that Rendon likely won't live up to the value of his contract at the end of the deal. However, he is most definitely worth it. At least with Harper they had Soto, Robles, and Eaton to make up for Harper leaving. The Nats have to hope to sign Donaldson.

Mr. T said...

"Boras is a different animal" "they should avoid signing so many young Boras clients" I don't understand this. Boras is a very good agent. Boras is very successful at getting his clients the most money. Saying owners should avoid players who are repped by the best agent is akin to saying the owners should avoid the best players. I guess the idea here is that there is a "true" value that a player has, that is being inflated by the evil Boras, who's twirling his moustaches after tricking the poor innocent owners into giving up more than they should have?

Players are worth what they can get. Boras's job is to get the most money for the players. The players' job is to play baseball. The Lerners' job is to give us a successful baseball team--by spending a tiny fraction of the 5.2 billion dollars Ted gained with a lifetime spent in the noble profession of real estate speculation.

NG said...

OlePBN: you can't suggest that the Nationals extend Rendon but complain about the "overvalued cripple at 1B." We have the overvalued cripple because we signed a 28 year old third baseman to a long-term extension. One might even say they did that to "make an effort to keep some of these fan favorites."

But you want to sign a 30-year old third baseman to a long-term extension? And somehow expect different results?

coolsny said...

@Ole PBN

Huh? Most times players have an agent BEFORE they join an organization, so yes, ownership does have an understanding of who they are dealing with, and the Lerners are known for having a closer-than-most relationship with Boras and his clients (of course Boras would cozy up to the richest owner in baseball lol). I'm just saying maybe they don't need to? Just spitballing here.

And maybe you are right that Soto may decide to stay in DC a la Strasburg, but that is not the normal track record for Boras clients. All we have to go on is track record for this, and you'd be hard pressed to find a plethora of high profile Boras clients who signed extensions.

Signing Rendon for more than 5 years is a mistake. I don't know. Being a baseball GM must be tough.

Anonymous said...

Rendon 6 year contract at 29M AAV. Six years guaranteed with a club option for 7th year at 29M or 3M buyout. If someone offers more than that you have to let him walk. IMO.

Big series Cubs vs Mets. If Nats sweep Baltimore, then the loser of the Cubs series is effectively out of race for WC1, though still alive for WC2. Go Nats.

Sammy Kent said...

4 hits and 0 runs against the gotdang frickin Orioles in our own park. What a bunch of wusses. It's enough to piss off the Pope.

Josh Higham said...

The point about Zimmerman and Rendon is salient. I'll note that Zimm was good for 4 wins (fWAR and bWAR) in 2012, effectively doing what he was drafted and extended (the first time) to do--get the Nats to relevance and the playoffs. The second extension was signed when he was already a little washed up, and was partly fan service, partly thanks for your young years and your shoulder, and partly hope he could stay a 3-win type of player for a while (spoiler: he could not).

If you sign Rendon to a hefty contract, what you're really paying for is 2-3 more elite years in which the Nats can hopefully level up as a franchise. You do that with hope that he won't be as dreadful in the tail years of the contract as Zimm and Werth have been, but you're willing to accept that if it happens.

There's no reasonable question about how much to pay for 5 great Rendon years or anything like that. I think the Nats can survive not signing Rendon, but boy do they have to do something special if they don't.

Sammy Kent said...

Now that I've slept on it I'm even more pissed off at that pathetic effort last night.

Josh Higham said...

That game was ugly. Nobody could put the barrel on anything the O's threw.

Anonymous said...

Weird... Weird Baseball day all around the league. There goes the win streak.

G Cracka X said...

Went to the game last night. I prefer attending games with the weakest opponents, so that there is the highest chance of winning. But I went to the one game they lost to KC, and now this one. Also went to the one game that they lost to BAL last year. Bummer!

Robot said...

Man, that O's pitching staff is an absolute BEAST. No wonder Baltimore is dominating the ::checks standings::

Never mind

PotomacFan said...

@G Cracka X: simple solution -- stop going to those games! I've been to 4 or 5 games that Max has started. Max has won ZERO of those games. So, I need to stop going to those games. That could be a problem if the WC game is at Nats Park and Max is starting.