Barry says Juan Soto is worth half a billion? Is he right? Probably so!
We first floated the "half-billion" number out there for Bryce after his 22 year old season (which by the way was clearly better than any full season Soto has had) But Bryce proved to be an uneven player who could be derailed for times by injury. By the time he was up for FA it was clear 500 million was an overpay. Soto on the other hand is a very steady hand, who yes can be affected by injury, but in a far less dramatic way. At this point I don't think anyone believes he isn't a better hitter than Bryce in general and possibly the best hitter in generations.
But Soto is limited in other ways. While athletic, he's is not a good fielder (I don't know how many times I have to say this) even when stuck in RF at 22 and is a middling base runner. His projection going forward is as a hitter pure and simple. This is in sharp contract to the player of his generation Trout who ways Mays/Mantle like in his all around ability, and doesn't even compare well with Bryce, who's natural aggressiveness on the base paths is more plus than minus and who's athleticism had the Nats wondering for a hot second if he could play CF (he really couldn't). I'd rate the two fairly even off the plate and Bryce is a good 6 years older.
That's not to say Soto isn't worth 500 million. I did say probably so. He's that good a hitter and more importantly he's worth something to the franchise off the field. But understand his future is just as a hitter. Potentially a first ballot HoF type hitter but a hitter.
Juan Soto is in the MVP list. He probably won't get it - it'll probably be Bryce. But each of the three would make fine winners stripping away team results.
Scherzer is in the Cy Young list. He's probably third though. Wheeler was the third best pitcher, but still very good and is way ahead on innings. Burnes probably slightly eeks out better pitcher from Max.
Dusty is on the MOY list and should get it considering the job he did to deflect all the Astros stuff away, but they love to give it to surprise good teams and MOY is littered with mediocre guys having one-offs so Scott Servais riding a monster amount of luck will probably take it home.
Nats bring in Francisco Perez off waivers, demote Kyle McGowan
The Indians need to protect a fair amount of prospects enough that some will have to go on the 40 man. That means someone on the 40 man has to be unprotected and a slightly older question mark young reliever was tops on the list. The Nats snatched up the converted started who has looked pretty good but doesn't have a ton of relief inning behind him. That could mean the 24/25 yo has room to improve or that what he's done so far is an illusion. Lets split that and say he keeps pitching as he has. That still makes him a useable man in the pen, albeit one of the last arms. Given the Nats situation there though - grabbing even that to have cheaply for a few years is a good play.
The question is though - they let Wade Miley pass. He's a starter who yes pitched over his head but can give you close to 200 IP and alleviate what may be SEVERE innings issues if Strasburg isn't healthy and Corbin isn't right. And for $10 million, you probably aren't getting something this good and reliable. You'll have to choose one or the other and hope. In the end though the Nats aren't thinking about 2022, they are thinking beyond and the question is whether or not Miley could get them something better than Perez when he's inevitably traded I think he could have, but it's not a guarantee. A middling to bad season by Miley - which is probably an even bet - would get you something similar. The Nats though made their choice. Hopefully it means there is someone in FA they are eyeing that they like beyond 2022.
8 comments:
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I'm surprised Soto doesn't get compared to Miguel Cabrera more often, especially because Miggy is a defensive liability who is a guaranteed 1st ballot HoFer and is also affable and beloved by his peers
If Soto is to be compared to Miggy I hope he ages better. I am completely in on the Nats offering the $500M deal for 15 years. I never want to see Soto in a different uniform.
I think the difference in general is Cabrera was clearly unathletic where as Juan really feels like someone that should be better than he is. (At the plate Miggy is not very patient)
Eh, Soto is not such a good fielder that you'd start him with an average bat, but he's 100% fine. (I don't know how often we need to keep having this conversation either...)
71 OF had 400+ PAs last year. FG rates Soto's defense 31st, and 14 of the folks above him play center. So, of corner outfielders, he ranked 17th of 51. And FG is harsher on him than BR or Statcast. Statcast has him like 7th of 75 qualified corner outfielders.
Corner OF is low on the spectrum, and Soto isn't so good at it that he creates a lot of value there anyway, like a pre-injury Eaton. But the idea that he needs to be pushed further down to 1st or DH anytime soon is nuts. He defends better than most folks playing his position!
Also, it's not a huge thing, but Svrluga has the arbitration wrong. Soto just had his Arb1 year at $8.5. He's getting at least $15 this year, and I'd bet around $75 over the remaining three years.
Anon @ 10;02 - everytime we discuss something related to Soto the complete player (is he an MVP? Does he deserve the largest contract ever?) and people skim over anything that isn't his amazing bat.
You can't teach other players the Soto swing, bat speed and hand/eye coordination. But why can's you teach Soto better defense and better base running?
I’m amazed at how Soto and Bryce are about even overall defensively now. I remember Soto being terrible initially. I know the stats grade Soto as the better defender this year, but I don’t put much stock in those. Plus Bryce played through injury this year after returning from his HBP injury too soon, no doubt hurting his stats. I think Soto gets a lot of value from getting good first jumps. I think Parra did a lot to help Soto. I wonder what he could have done with Bryce, given he’s more athletic and faster. I don’t think Werth was the best teacher. I think Bryce never got the coaching and maybe the coach, he needed.
There's also the question of the student bei g open to be taught. Soto is a sponge from even journeyman players while I have never heard that about Harper. Lastly, in an interview with the athletic, in Spanish, it was not comforting to hear Soto describe the difficulty of adapting to a new hitting coach. He said he hopes it works out.
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