The Nats made a bunch of roster moves yesterday.
Robles and Rainey were re-signed. Rainey was pretty much a given. He doesn't cost much. The Nats have always really liked him. If he's really recovered from TJ (and most guys do) then he'll add to a decent back-end of the bullpen, a necessity for a team whose rotation is still a question mark. Robles was more of a question as the team and him have had a rocky relationship and he showed pretty well last year when healthy. But that last part is the key as Victor didn't play a game in the last 3 months of the year. While teams may have been interested it's unlikely they would have offered more than a minor league deal for Robles if he was out there. He probably could have had his pick of which team to end up with but the money was going to be better here. For the Nats he's a placeholder until the prospects are ready and even if he hits his potential he's likely done in DC after this season.
In Alphabetical order Zach Brzykcy, Cole Henry, D.J. Herz, and Mitchell Parker were added to the 40-man to protect them from the Rule V. These moves mostly make sense. Except for Henry these are all guys with really live arms and the Nats don't have a lot of those types. Herz and Parker are technically starters now but could be shifted to the pen at any point, especially for a year if selected in Rule V. Cole was a decently well thought of SP prospect and those guys always draw interest from pitching poor teams. Zach was probably the biggest stretch protecting - a pure reliever recovering from TJ who looked good in 2023 but in fairly limited innings - but you can still see it especially given the corresponding moves.
Matt Cronin was move #1 a week or so ago. DFA'd because he's down with back surgery after being added himself to the 40man last year for Rule V protection. He should be back in the minors as he works back. But the Nats needed three more spots.
Cory Abbott was one. At 28 and with a few tries in the majors showing little there isn't much reason to keep him around, although he might come back as AAA starter filler. Was one of those guys derailed by the pandemic. Not that he was going to be a star but he was asked to jump from AA where he was ok to AAA after the off-year because he was aging out of minors and couldn't do it. Probably too late for the guy to get the year of AA reset he needs especially given he wasn't thought of that highly to begin with.
Andres Machado is just a guy. From the release he's looking at Japan where he can probably do ok and make a little more money than he would as a journeyman last man in the pen he'd be over here for a couple years. Nats need arms but arms like Machado are replaceable.
Now to the biggy - Dominic Smith was designated for assignment. One one hand - this is good because Dom Smith was not really a positive player here. He wasn't the negative he seemed to be because he didn't hit homers. Overall he was meh. So the Nats can improve here. But as I noted in my post a while ago - the market for 1B isn't strong. The Nats can spend money here or they can get worse and I'm not 100% sure what the plan actually is.
What I don't get is the interaction here with Meneses and presumably Riley Adams. Neither is good enough that they can't be pushed out of a position, even DH. Neither is reliable enough that you can say you are going to get above average hitting from them in 2024. So forcing out Smith to go with some sort of Meneses/Adams/? rotation at 1B DH or even worse a set Meneses Adams duo would be asking for trouble. You are accepting worse defense, maybe terrible defense, for unclear gains at the plate from non-prospects. If this is the plan after Smith it's a terrible one.
So that means looking at FA and if they are great. But as noted the market is Bellinger and Hoskins, with Santana and Candelario as back-up plans and then a lot of questions. The Nats don't need to commit to a question.
Dom is not a contending 1B in most scenarios. The Nats would have had to move on from him at some point. But if they move on from him laterally in 2024 I don't see the point. Do you really like Adams? Well then you let him DH! Joey is a 31 year old with questionable defense that had a below average bat this year. I don't know. This suggest something bigger and better but it also sets us up for a let down if they don't go for that.
7 comments:
I predict they try to convert one of their roughly 95 OF prospects to 1b.
I could see the Nats signing Hoskins on a 1 year prove yourself deal...but I don't think Hoskins actually needs one of those given the market
I honestly think the Nats are looking towards 2025 and realizing they don't have OF spots for everyone, so maybe they look to stick Thomas at 1B? Maybe there's a trade in the works for someone like Diaz (though trades seem doubtful given the top-heaviness of the farm)
At the end of the day, though, Smith wasn't great. So if the plan now is to stick Adams at 1B? So be it, I don't see it as that much of a downgrade and the Nats will need some major luck to be competitive in 2024 anyway. Focus FA spending on some pitchers, see where the chips fall everywhere else
House is very very likely to be a major leaguer by 2025--even maybe in 2024. 3B-check! Morales is likely to be a major leaguer, probably 2025. 1B-check! Problem solved! I wouldn't worry much about the 2024 team. Nobody else on this site does, anyway. The only thing they really need now is a certified major league #1 or 2 pitcher.
There are quite a few options (rather than a specific “what is the plan?”
For example, sign Hoskins (return from injury) or JD Martinez (short term older player) to a one-year pillow contract as Nats DH and move Meneses to 1B for 2024. Definite defensive drop compared with Dom Smith, but Joey also has interesting splits where he hits consistently better when he plays in the field vs DH.
That would set up the plan proposed above (look to Morales—or dare I say Soto?) to take over 1B circa 2025.
Joey Votto - 2024!
Let's face it, when one is dealing with players as fungible as Smith, Meneses, and Adams a "see if you can find a better option" is perfectly fine as a plan. Because if that plan falls through, finding a player of the level of Smith/Meneses/Adams isn't going to be that difficult.
John C - but that kind of is the point. It isn't that difficult to find a Smith level guy (who mind you I think over the course of a season would be better than Joey or Adams at 1B) but it's very easy to find someone worse
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