Off-Season Position Discussion : Shortstop

The Nats have their shortstop of the future!

Of course last year we said the Nats have their second baseman of the future and that didn't exactly turn out as expected. While people are treating CJ Abrams as the answer, it's better said that he's a question that after 2023 you want to see played fully out. He has all the talent in the world and we saw it on display.  He was one of the major league leaders in stealing bases, swiping 47 bases while only being caught 4 times. He had one of the best ranges at SS in the game. He showed a nice increase in power hitting 11 homers after the All-Star Break among the leaders at his position.

And yet... 

He wasn't as effective a total baserunner, not showing great ability going from 1st to 3rd or scoring from 2nd.  He wasn't able to turn that range into more outs, still ending up in the lower ranks of fielders for his position. He didn't end up with a positive offensive year, unable to get that average up high enough and not currently capable of getting on base consistently through walks.

Behind him Vargas played some decent SS and wasn't awful at the plate. Mostly though he covered other positions as Adams covered the vast majority of playing time at short.

Presumed Plan : Abrams backed up by Vargas, with possibly House/Lipscomb/? getting playing time if there's an injury

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : CJ Abrams is one of the main prospects gotten in the Soto trade. He can play SS.  He was ok last year overall and brought some excitement when he flashed the complete package in July. He gets another full year obviously with the idea being unless he tanks he's going to be playing SS for the Nats for a while.  

The Nats high minors situation at SS isn't very good. You've seen the Jeter Downseses and Lucius Foxeses. Vargas is here and capable and shouldn't be pushed as a back-up.  If something happens, as a 31yo journeyman, he also is easy enough to keep as a back-up and try something different over him, as noted in the presumed plan.

My Take :  

In Abrams, you have a player with the tools to be great. That's why he was a Top 10 prospect at one point. 

You also have a player with the reality of improving merely to be maybe average. That's why the Padres could part with him. 

But he did improve.  He cut down on his errors that made him a clear liability at SS. He increased his power taking his batting profile away from "does nothing good". He got more aggressive on the base paths utilizing that plus speed effectively. 

If he can improve just a little bit more in the field and at the plate, with his speed he'll be an above average player. If he can improve more than that he has star potential.  He probably won't ever be a complete player.  He's just not a natural fielder and he will likely never hit for average, but he could easily be a Lindor lite, hitting almost like Francisco and trading plus base-stealing for plus defense. That's worth less but still worth a fair amount.

Behind him Vargas played some decent SS and wasn't awful at the plate. A team looking to win it all would probably want something better. They'd want a player that could step in if there was an injury and overall be average.  Vargas isn't that. But he's going to play solid D, be able to be used at all the infield positions, and he shouldn't be an automatic out at the plate. That probably won't be the case much longer but for this level of team,  Vargas is a decent bench guy. 

So all in all I'm fine with the plan here too. The Nats are in "give young guys a lot of playing time" mode and Abrams is a perfect example of a guy you want to give more playing time to, without being an obvious good player.