Third base worked exactly as the Nats wanted last year. They brought in a (probably) good player who had an off 2022 in the offseason in Jeimer Candelario on a short term deal. He performed very well, bordering on an All-Star season, and at the trade deadline brought back something of interest in a young live arm DJ Herz.
Meanwhile with the arrival of CJ Abrams Brady House shifted over to 3B and had a renaissance at the plate after a disappointing injury marred 2022*. His AA work doesn't demand an immediate promotion and he's likely to start there in 2024, but AAA is also possible and the understanding is if he's as good this year, he'll start getting major league reps later in 2024.
So the past was fine, but it's past. The future looks set up, but it's the future. What is the now?
Presumed Plan : Your guess is as good as mine but I'll say Vargas and Alu and maybe Kieboom or Darren Baker later, spinning tires waiting on House to arrive and if not House than a rocketing Yohandy or a surprise again Lipscomb.
Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : Vargas and Alu are on the 40 man still. There's my reasoning. I think the Nats are looking to spend some money but FA SP has to be goal 1 and 1B or maybe a big bat DH/OF would make more sense than a 3B when really what they want for 2024 is House to be great in AA/AAA and force their hand to bring him up.
Their remains a possibility of signing a 3B guy I guess as the guys available (Candelario, Chapman, Urshela) combine D and O in a way that makes them more valuable then what they'll probably get. But I think it's a long shot because of the needs noted. Nats aren't really in "get cute to try to get value" mode, or at least shouldn't be.
My Take :
Yeah.
If the Nats have made a commitment to try something at 1B (which the DFA of Smith suggests) then trying something at 3B doesn't make much sense. I suppose you could shift any of those guys to 1B, the Cubs did that to Candelario, if House is ready quick or even if he isn't and you just want to, but then that value you got at 3B that took into account their defense is lessened.
So you do nothing.
Well maybe not. You could try to recreate 2023 in that you sign a guy with comeback potential and turn that into another live arm type. Is there another target like this? Brian Anderson or Joey Wendle, two decent defenders with offensive success in the past might work but the offensive success is futher off and not as high as Jeimer's was. In fact when we look for just offense really no one has that potential sitting out there. They are all mostly several years older. Man, what a smart move signing Candelario was.
Out of what's out there - utility man Donovan Solano is a guy who doesn't need to come back as he's been hitting enough to stay good. Maybe the Nats can offer him a starting role that he can't get elsewhere.
Another vaugely interesting move could be signing Evan Longoria. You've got the "veteran leadership" GMs and coaches love and there's some sense he can still hit the lefties, so you could move him to DH. But he seems to be very much a Nelson Cruz risk a guy that will age out in 2024.
There are no good moves here. Let it ride and focus on the SP and getting someone up here after the trade deadline to take their first stab at the majors.
*In the sense they wanted House to rocket to the majors and he did not
2 comments:
Vargas is in a different category than Alu or Kieboom. Vargas can play a passable backup shortstop, and you need somebody with that skill on your major league roster. The only reason for keeping Alu or Kieboom on the roster is that there are a lot of balls hit to the right of shortstop, and somebody needs to catch them. Vargas may play some 3B this year, or even a lot of 3B. But his presence on the roster says nothing about the Nationals' plan for 3B next year.
@Anon - You're right that it's Alu or Kieboom and not Vargas who will be DFA'd for House or whoever, but Vargas needs to be included here because he's a viable short term 3B option in the vast majority of potential seasons where Abrams doesn't get injured before Aug 1 of next year. Maybe someone has seen a relevant model of that, but I doubt the chances are higher than 15%.
So even when both Alu and Kieboom are still replacement level or worse during their 100 PA stretches (each independently about a 90% chance), you have Vargas covering 200 PAs at the level of "competent backup". That means the expected improvement for bringing in someone who's, say, "a bad but passable starter" has to be discounted.
@Harper - I think you mostly have this right, but if I were Rizzo, I'd be trying to game it backwards from the path that I think would be the most likely to maximize House's development. Are you worried about increased injury risks if you call him up before he's had a season of full time play under his belt to build stamina? Then you bring in a FA on a 1-2 year deal. If you think having an open spot on the ML roster is a positive motivation for him and/or you believe he might be ready by opening day or soon after? Then you don't sign anyone. If House ends up needing a bit more time, you let Kieboom start the season, and cut him when he fails. Either way, it's going to be a bumpy road until House is playing and playing well. The most important thing is to give him the path that maximizes his chances for 3+ WAR in 2026. After that, you work around the margins to steal value where you can.
(By the way, I'm enough worried about injuries with him that I'm inclined to move slow. But I was also so kid gloves on this issue from the jump that I wanted to hold back the minors promotions as well. Two levels and an excellent 150 PAs of AA later, and here we are.)
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