I hate Aaron Boone. He's dumb in a modern sense - usually making the analytic choice when such things are figured out in a vacuum and games are managed in the real world. He's also dumb in a traditional sense - usually going for his gut against the traditional move but in a way that doesn't make sense. Sigh.
How was your weekend?
A few Nats are in the AFL. Hassell is hitting ok so far through a couple weeks.
uhhh
uhhh
real quiet out there.
The Nats went into 2024 with the hope that either Joey Meneses would blossom or their FA pick-up Joey Gallo would hold down the spot. Neither were being counted on to be long term solutions, more likely trade-bait, but it could have gone in any direction depending on how they performed and what they Nats looked like they needed going forward. When both essentially flunked out of the majors the Nats turned to a organizational depth pick-up Juan Yepez to cover the spot for the rest of the year. He did so admirably hitting well enough that the Nats are at least thinking about where he fits in for next year if they want to look at him some more
Overall the position was one of the Nats' weakest and ripe for improvement.
Presumed Plan :
A FA signing that can play 1B. This player may end up at DH instead.
Reasoning behind Presumed Plan :
Joey G. will be bought out and Joey M, at 32, had his chance. These aren't real options.
Juan Yepez is a poor fielding 1B with little history of success at the plate. Still he's interesting in that he's a rare player that can generate power without sacrificing contact. However what appeared to be potentially special in 2021 has regressed to usable. He's worth throwing out there again but not as a primary source of production. Andres Chaparro also spent some time there but he right now would be behind Yepez.
The Nats have a 1B they like ok in the minors in Yohandy Morales, but his AA stay last year almost certainly puts him back in that league for another year. At 22 this isn't an issue, but the Nats can't rely on him coming up and making an impact in the next couple years.
They could move someone over (Kieboom? Wood?) but there has been neither planning or inklings they are interested in such moves.
All this says they have the need for a FA at these positions.
My Take :
Yep. While James Wood's play suggests his long-term home might be at 1B (or DH) it's way too early to give in just yet, especially with a couple strong defenders along with him in the OF. So a FA makes sense and there's a few decent ones out there.
Pete Alonso (pure power, no glove, still 30) and Christian Walker (good D, solid bat, 34) will get the biggest deals. Walker might be ideal for the Nats and would be where I'd look first. If you are scared of the age there's really only one other option 31 yo Ryan O'Hearn who hits like Walker but is more of a DH. If the Nats don't want to commit big money long term Carlos Santana (formerly great, still all around good, but 39) and Paul Goldschmidt (formerly great still ok but bad trends and 37) are out there for short term deals. If the Nats do something like that I'd hope they are putting money in elsewhere.
If they don't want to fight for a 1B the OF class is slightly deeper but you'd have to bet on being able to get someone on a decent deal and that they'd want to play 1B and you'd have to get over the "lefties at 1B" thing. A Michael Conforto type might be the answer.
Still that seems overly complicated. The Nats need a 1B there is a good 1B fit available. The Nats have $. Just sign the best option. If it takes a 4 year deal you are probably stretching his usefulness but given he's good on the field and at the plate has pop, has patience seems like something will hold up. Although if you are worried his K rate did jump up last year.
I will add the caveat that IF they were to go into the Juan Soto sweepstakes and sign him that gives some leeway to 1B being more of a gamble. Two former Nats that did well here might be amenable to come back Jesse Winker in the "move position" category and Josh Bell in the "had an off year could be cheap" one. I wouldn't make either of these Plan A or even Plan B to most other Plan As but if Soto is Plan A then sure, gamble.
Juan Soto is awesome.
Juan Soto is very young.
Juan Soto is about to go from very rich to unfathomably so. Buy an island house to buy an island.
Juan Soto was really bothered by the events of 2022. That's the truth because I can't otherwise explain how this guy hits .242 for a season. 275? Ok bad year. .242?
Anyway the Yankees and Dodgers in the World Series. It's the teams that spend the most in the biggest markets so it should draw eyeballs and media interest. Some people hate this. The biggest markets ALWAYS get the eyeballs and media interest. Not all teams have owners that want to (or very rarely "can") spend a ton of money. Take whatever view of it you want to.
Who do Nats fans root for (if they wish to root for anyone)? Probably depends on how you feel about Juan Soto post Nats and the Yankees. Clearly if you hate the Yankees and/or Soto you are probably rooting against them. If the Yankees aren't your least favorite team and you hold no grudges against Soto you probably are rooting at least for him, and thus tangentially for the Yankees.
If neither of these hold true, things get more wonky. You may hate the Dodgers a bit more with the Nats running into them in the playoffs a couple times. Although they did beat the Dodgers on the way to the title so how much can you hate a team you are 1-1 against? You may be a "root against any NL team" person or a "root FOR the NL" person. You may love Ohtani. (easy to do) or Aaron Judge (a bit less likely but he isn't really hateable just bland, but the guy is a physical phenomenon He's not a lumbering beast. He just a 6'2" guy scaled up by 15%). You could like someone else - probably Mookie, though Stanton is fun as just a "swing big hit ball hard" guy. Kershaw? OK, everyone has their kinks. You could hate the Dodgers for the go nowhere trade for Ruiz/Gray that sent off Max and Trea. You could be a former Orioles fan still harboring anti-Yankee sentiments*
If you don't want to follow the series that's fine too. Hell you might shut down after the Nats do.
Anyway this kid is excited. 15 years is a long time to wait.
*Though it's fun to think it's been 20 years now of Nationals. Anyone 25-30 or younger are very unlikely to be a "former O's fan" thing unless their parents did the "root for the Os in the AL, Nats in the NL" thing.
The Nats had a long-term plan at catcher. Ruiz's performance over the past couple years have called that plan into serious question. After being signed long-term Ruiz put up one of the worst statistical defensive years we've seen at C in a while (for whatever that is worth) and this year he was well below average at the plate. Does anything now change because of it?
Presumed Plan :
Ruiz with Millas and/or Adams as back-up.
Reasoning behind Presumed Plan :
Ruiz has that contract. He'll get every opportunity to bounce back and starting 2025 as the presumed #1 catcther might just be "every opportunity".
Adams and Millas are who is here and ready. If you aren't going to replace Ruiz this is what you go with. But they each have issues so you can't rely on a single one.
Adams is seen as a poor fielder. Previously it was thought he could platoon well with Ruiz bc he mashed lefties, but Adams crashed against them this year. If he's not a good fielder and not a good hitter against the pitchers Ruiz stuggles against, what is his use case?
Drew Millas hit well in the minors again - this time in AAA, but that didn't translate into major league success. It was only a month so you can't really say anything for sure but as a 27 year old with no real prospect status it helps if you prove things right quickly.
Makes sense in this case that you start with Ruiz at C, if he falters you swap in Millas for an extended look (Ruiz down to AAA to get right?) and Adams sticks around as a back-up / 3rd option depending on what's being done with these guys.
My Take :
There's a lot of ways forward. You can just commit to Ruiz. He starts. He plays. You deal with it for at least a couple more years. If this is the case I'd jettison Adams and Millas and bring in a veteran catcher who can work with Ruiz on... well everything.
You can follow the presumed plan hoping to hit on Ruiz or Millas in 2025 so you don't need to make a move (and then making a move in the off-season if you didn't hit on either, they both failed badly, and the Nats are closing in on contention)
Or you can make that move now. You might be able to get Alejandro Kirk (FA after 2026) for something or maybe Wilson Contreras if St Louis is rebuilding (gotta eat a lot of $ though). If you don't want to trade because the return isn't great, there isn't really a good FA catcher this year. Higashioka who will be 35, d'Arnaud who's always an injury gamble, Danny Jansen is you want to take a gamble on this was an off -year. If you think a rental might be cheaper the best one next year is Realmuto who isn't going to be traded and certainly not inter-division.
I think the Nats have enough issues left to solve and are not quite in contention so they can let this go one more year. Whether that means way 1 or 2 is up to how you feel about Keibert and Drew. I lean toward 1 just because the guy can make contact, and I like guys that make contact. I feel like you can make that work. I think last year's D was an aberration and while he may not be good he isn't immediately an issue that needs to be replaced. I also like the fact he's younger so him getting better seems more reasonable to me than Drew. I don't see the point of moving from hoping things pan out with this better once prospect to hoping things pan out with this older non-prospect. If Millas wants the job, he'll get ABs. To me, he'll need to force the issue if he wants a trial.
That'll be where we go from here - what we expect the position plans to be in the off-season. While watching and of course rooting for the Yankees to win it all. I assume that's what we are all doing.
The "how the kids doing" series has to then end. But let's quickly run through the kids we really care about not covered (covered were Wood, Ruiz, Gore, and Abrams)
Luis Garcia Jr. - He had a really good bounce back year. It was pretty simple. He hit the ball better. Harder, less on the ground. More mistakes then became homers and that was enough. No seriously. If he hits like last year and say only has 10 homers his BA is pretty much what it was last year. He's still not walking so he'd be below average again. It's pretty simple, if not easy, for Luis
Dylan Crews - He only played for about a month so grain of salt all this, but I'd call it disappointing but promising. The stats were disappointing for a guy that was supposed to be a natural hitter. But the fielding was good, the baserunning was good, and the hitting was really centered around one issue - not getting the ball up enough. A 57+% ground ball rate. He did have enough fly balls so that's why you saw a few homers but that leaves his LD% at an embarrassing 10%. With his decent eye and his pedigree this seems like it will change. He also pulls too much but you can make that work. You can't make hitting a ton of balls into the infield grass work.
Jake Irvin / Mitchell Parker / DJ Herz - One important thing to note here I've said before - Irvin ain't really a kid. He'll be 28 before next year starts.
Irvin is a mediocre pitcher but by cutting down on his walks a bunch this year, he made himself perfectly acceptable as a 4/5. That's all he did. He might have a small improvement left cutting homers but minor league stats say this is Jake. That's fine.
Parker has better stuff than Irvin but he didn't quite find a finishing pitch in the majors. That was probably because he was working on not walking guys. He was a wild K guy in the minors. Things could swing wildly for Mitchell in 2025. He doesn't keep guys on the ground so the HR rate could bounce up. Or he could get wild again. Either of those and he's probably out of the rotation. Or maybe he does figure out how to keep his control and add more Ks to the mix and takes a step up. Or maybe he just stays the same as a 4/5. It was a good year bc he showed he can pitch in the majors. That's really what you wanted to see from a guy like Parker who's at best a middling prospect. But nothing here is guaranteed.
Herz is the guy you want to focus on. Another Wild K guy in the minors, but wilder and more... uhh... "K"y. He showed he can K guys in the majors with junk and guys don't hit him well. He still walks too many guys and let's guys hit too many balls in the air. So the combination kept him from having a good year but if he can get one of those under control... this guy can be actually good. Unlike Parker his stuff really plays here so there's a lot more potential. However, before you get too high on him there was a real definitive drop in effectiveness when he threw more pitches. after pitch 50 guys started to smack him. Third time around things got ugly fast. So the question does remain starter or reliever. (or modern dominant 4 inning 5th starter? Need a diff't bullpen for that) But his stuff should let him have a major league role either way. This is the most promising thing that surprised for the Nats this year. The introduction of a guy that could be a special starter, or a special reliever. Most likely he won't be but you want a bunch of these types bc they can't all miss.
Every year we do this - checking in where the team got lucky (or not) and maybe how that factored into this season and following ones. This isn't to say a player if "lucky" can't continue on the same path, or if "unlucky" will bounce back. It's really just about expectations into this year and how those played out. Reasonably expect a guy to hit .280 with 20 homers and he goes from .310 35 or .250 10. That's what I'm talking about.
Lucky
Before 2024 Trevor Williams recently peaked as a pitcher when the Mets moved him to the pen and he put up a 3.00+ ERA pitching in relief. As a starter he had one good year back in 2018 but otherwise had been bad at the role for half a decade. Yet, he was Cy Young worthy for the third of a season he was healthy. Yes, he did get hurt but his value for those 13 starts were well above what he had done in any full season since 2018.
When you throw three young guys with at best mild expectations
into your staff the expectation would be one would flame out, if not
two. But Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker, and DJ Herz all performed well
enough to hold down spots for the whole year. Like getting three
straight scratch-off come up as winners. Only like $5 or $20 but that's
still lucky.
Derek Law is a guy in a pen. That sounds like faint praise because it is. He just hasn't been special since his rookie year. In 2023 he had value but the numbers behind it suggested he wouldn't be good. But he was! Better than any year since 2016!
Some bench players will out perform when seen in small doses but Alex Call hitting .343 / .425 / .525 was crazy even if for ~100 PA.
Unlucky
While last year's mediocrity tempered expectations, there really wasn't any reason to think Keibert Ruiz would continue to regress and become a flat out bad offensive player.
The flip side of Alex Call is Eddie Rosario .186 / .226 / .329 is surprisingly bad after an average 2023. They caught the last year of his career. It happens. It's bad luck.
Your #2 and #3 relievers both catching the low end of things (Harvey is having his ERA not match his in a vacuum performance thanks to some untimely balls getting through, Rainey really struggling to come back from injury) is low end bad luck but should be mentioned.
As Expected
Some free agents hit (Winker) some don't (Gallo) some are worth trying into their mid 30s because they are probably still good (Floro) some aren't even under 30 because they are probably never going to be good (Senzel). Sunrise Sunset.
Young players can vary. Luis Garcia Jr seemed to have this in him. Trey Lipscomb may simply barely be org depth. Wood can come in and pretty much immediately be good. Crews can come in and look like he needs some more experience. Some variation is standard.
CJ Abrams had a wild ride but ended up kind of where you thought. Well not in AAA that was not expected but we're talking about season performance.
Pretty much everyone else. Scour the team and it's hard to find anything unusual. This was the team that was built and it mostly
Similar to last year the Nats weren't trying to be good. Similar to last year the Nats caught more breaks than they didn't. Some BIG breaks pitching wise with Williams and the no downside kids, that lead to a lot of decent innings on the mound and a few wins more than the team was built for. Add in some aggressive baserunning and a bounce or two of game luck and here we are.
DISsimilar to last year there is expected to be some improvements next year because the talent here is now real major league level talent. How good can Wood be? Will Crews step up next year? Who is CJ Abrams really? Can those young arms keep being decent? Just sticking with what the Nats have isn't a recipe for success. It's a recipe for a couple more wins with a lot of variance. Say expect 73 wins but 81 or 65 being possible. What's going to set expectations is what kind of FA moves they make. Make the right ones and that variation becomes enough to get the Nats into the playoff hunt if things break right for them. But you have to expect SOMETHING right? Like so mid to upeer 70s is the floor of likely expectations unless like Gore needs TJ and Wood breaks his leg in an off-season ATV accident.
Do you base all rooting interests on the Nationals? Would you base your rooting interest in the playoffs on the teams with the most National ties? If so...
GONE TOO SOON
Braves
Former Nats pitcher Reynaldo Lopez was a great starter for the Braves but they would shift him to reliever at the end. Mistake? They aren't still playing are they? Also on the Braves, Eddie Rosario. Yuk. Glad ya lost
Brewers
Joe Ross was on the Brewers as the season ended. He did fine!
Astros
With Dusty gone the most Nationals person with the Astros is GM Dana Brown - who was the director of scouting until Rizzo took over the GM role. How'd he end up GM if his Expos/Nats scouting was... mediocre at best? Time and a stint with the Braves that was actually good. Player wise it's barren on the post-season roster but Old Friend (tm) Wander Suero is in the org and was on the mound when the AAA team Sugarland clinched the AAA title.
Orioles
Daniel Johnson, former Nats draft pick who ended up traded to Cleveland was there. That's it
STILL IN IT TO WIN IT
Yankees
You may have heard of a little player named Juan Tiberius* Soto. Only one but it's a big one.
Royals
The Royals picked up Hunter Harvey mid season to help with their playoff push. He got hurt very quickly. Other than that no Nats.
Tigers
No Nats
Guardians
Lane Thomas was traded to Cleveland and was disappointing... until he crushed a bomb to open up the ALDS.
Mets
Jesse Winker, another traded guy, is the obvious one but who could forget long time Nat Reed Garrett (9IP in 2022) finally finding his form for this Mets team?
Phillies
Trea Turner. Bryce Harper. Kyle Schwarber. I mean this is basically the Nats team that could have been.
Padres
What happened on August 8th, 2024? That's when Carl Edwards Jr threw his one inning of major league work this year.
Dodgers
Blake Treinen and his talent at pitching good and somehow seeming bad is playing his fourth season for the Dodgers. Daniel Hudson, at Dodger before he was a Nat, has been in LA since 2022 and actually pitched a full season this year! (he was ok). Ever the resourceful team they've made use of a Nats' castoff. Anthony Banda, who has made an incredible journey in his career**, including a stop in DC last year, found himself at home in the LA bullpen.
If seeing former Nats makes you happy, you are rooting for a Phillies Yankees World Series
If it makes you sad, you are rooting for Padres facing either the Tigers or Royals.
*May not be his actual middle name
** drafted by the Dbacks, refused, drafted by Milwuakee, traded to Arizona, made his debut with Arizona in 2017 then traded to Tampa (2018-2020), DFA'd and traded to SFG for cash (minors only 2021), traded to Mets (2021), DFA's then grabbed by Pittsburgh off waivers (2021-2022), DFA'd then traded to TOR for cash (2022), DFA'd, rejected assignment, signed with Mariners (minors only 2022), opted out, signed with Yankees (2022), DFA'd went to minors, elected FA, signed with Nationals (2023) in off season. DFA'd spent season in minors. Elected FA, signed with Cleveland (minors only 2024), traded to Dodgers
