Offseason Position Discussion : Catcher

The Nats had a long-term plan at catcher.  Ruiz's performance over the past couple years have called that plan into serious question.  After being signed long-term Ruiz put up one of the worst statistical defensive years we've seen at C in a while (for whatever that is worth) and this year he was well below average at the plate. Does anything now change because of it?

Presumed Plan : 

Ruiz with Millas and/or Adams as back-up.

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

Ruiz has that contract. He'll get every opportunity to bounce back and starting 2025 as the presumed #1 catcther might just be "every opportunity".

Adams and Millas are who is here and ready. If you aren't going to replace Ruiz this is what you go with. But they each have issues so you can't rely on a single one. 

Adams is seen as a poor fielder. Previously it was thought he could platoon well with Ruiz bc he mashed lefties, but Adams crashed against them this year. If he's not a good fielder and not a good hitter against the pitchers Ruiz stuggles against, what is his use case? 

Drew Millas hit well in the minors again - this time in AAA, but that didn't translate into major league success. It was only a month so you can't really say anything for sure but as a 27 year old with no real prospect status it helps if you prove things right quickly. 

Makes sense in this case that you start with Ruiz at C, if he falters you swap in Millas for an extended look (Ruiz down to AAA to get right?) and Adams sticks around as a back-up / 3rd option depending on what's being done with these guys.

My Take :  

There's a lot of ways forward. You can just commit to Ruiz. He starts. He plays. You deal with it for at least a couple more years. If this is the case I'd jettison Adams and Millas and bring in a veteran catcher who can work with Ruiz on... well everything. 

You can follow the presumed plan hoping to hit on Ruiz or Millas in 2025 so you don't need to make a move (and then making a move in the off-season if you didn't hit on either, they both failed badly, and the Nats are closing in on contention) 

Or you can make that move now. You might be able to get Alejandro Kirk (FA after 2026) for something or maybe Wilson Contreras if St Louis is rebuilding (gotta eat a lot of $ though). If you don't want to trade because the return isn't great, there isn't really a good FA catcher this year. Higashioka who will be 35, d'Arnaud who's always an injury gamble, Danny Jansen is you want to take a gamble on this was an off -year. If you think a rental might be cheaper the best one next year is Realmuto who isn't going to be traded and certainly not inter-division.

I think the Nats have enough issues left to solve and are not quite in contention so they can let this go one more year.  Whether that means way 1 or 2 is up to how you feel about Keibert and Drew. I lean toward 1 just because the guy can make contact, and I like guys that make contact. I feel like you can make that work. I think last year's D was an aberration and while he may not be good he isn't immediately an issue that needs to be replaced. I also like the fact he's younger so him getting better seems more reasonable to me than Drew. I don't see the point of moving from hoping things pan out with this better once prospect to hoping things pan out with this older non-prospect.  If Millas wants the job, he'll get ABs.  To me, he'll need to force the issue if he wants a trial.     

Monday Quickie - on to the Position recaps

That'll be where we go from here - what we expect the position plans to be in the off-season. While watching and of course rooting for the Yankees to win it all. I assume that's what we are all doing. 

The "how the kids doing" series has to then end. But let's quickly run through the kids we really care about not covered (covered were Wood, Ruiz, Gore, and Abrams)

Luis Garcia Jr. - He had a really good bounce back year. It was pretty simple. He hit the ball better.  Harder, less on the ground. More mistakes then became homers and that was enough.  No seriously. If he hits like last year and say only has 10 homers his BA is pretty much what it was last year.  He's still not walking so he'd be below average again. It's pretty simple, if not easy, for Luis

Dylan Crews - He only played for about a month so grain of salt all this, but I'd call it disappointing but promising. The stats were disappointing for a guy that was supposed to be a natural hitter. But the fielding was good, the baserunning was good, and the hitting was really centered around one issue - not getting the ball up enough.  A 57+% ground ball rate.  He did have enough fly balls so that's why you saw a few homers but that leaves his LD% at an embarrassing 10%.  With his decent eye and his pedigree this seems like it will change. He also pulls too much but you can make that work. You can't make hitting a ton of balls into the infield grass work. 

Jake Irvin / Mitchell Parker / DJ Herz - One important thing to note here I've said before - Irvin ain't really a kid. He'll be 28 before next year starts. 

Irvin is a mediocre pitcher but by cutting down on his walks a bunch this year, he made himself perfectly acceptable as a 4/5. That's all he did. He might have a small improvement left cutting homers but minor league stats say this is Jake. That's fine.

Parker has better stuff than Irvin but he didn't quite find a finishing pitch in the majors. That was probably because he was working on not walking guys. He was a wild K guy in the minors. Things could swing wildly for Mitchell in 2025. He doesn't keep guys on the ground so the HR rate could bounce up. Or he could get wild again. Either of those and he's probably out of the rotation. Or maybe he does figure out how to keep his control and add more Ks to the mix and takes a step up. Or maybe he just stays the same as a 4/5. It was a good year bc he showed he can pitch in the majors. That's really what you wanted to see from a guy like Parker who's at best a middling prospect. But nothing here is guaranteed. 

Herz is the guy you want to focus on. Another Wild K guy in the minors, but wilder and more... uhh... "K"y. He showed he can K guys in the majors with junk and guys don't hit him well. He still walks too many guys and let's guys hit too many balls in the air. So the combination kept him from having a good year but if he can get one of those under control... this guy can be actually good. Unlike Parker his stuff really plays here so there's a lot more potential. However, before you get too high on him there was a real definitive drop in effectiveness when he threw more pitches. after pitch 50 guys started to smack him.  Third time around things got ugly fast. So the question does remain starter or reliever. (or modern dominant 4 inning 5th starter? Need a diff't bullpen for that)  But his stuff should let him have a major league role either way.  This is the most promising thing that surprised for the Nats this year. The introduction of a guy that could be a special starter, or a special reliever. Most likely he won't be but you want a bunch of these types bc they can't all miss.

Lucky or Unlucky : 2024

 Every year we do this - checking in where the team got lucky (or not) and maybe how that factored into this season and following ones.  This isn't to say a player if "lucky" can't continue on the same path, or if "unlucky" will bounce back. It's really just about expectations into this year and how those played out. Reasonably expect a guy to hit .280 with 20 homers and he goes from .310 35 or .250 10. That's what I'm talking about.

 

Lucky 

Before 2024 Trevor Williams recently peaked as a pitcher when the Mets moved him to the pen and he put up a 3.00+ ERA pitching in relief.  As a starter he had one good year back in 2018 but otherwise had been bad at the role for half a decade. Yet, he was Cy Young worthy for the third of a season he was healthy.  Yes, he did get hurt but his value for those 13 starts were well above what he had done in any full season since 2018.

When you throw three young guys with at best mild expectations into your staff the expectation would be one would flame out, if not two.  But Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker, and DJ Herz all performed well enough to hold down spots for the whole year. Like getting three straight scratch-off come up as winners. Only like $5 or $20 but that's still lucky.

Derek Law is a guy in a pen. That sounds like faint praise because it is. He just hasn't been special since his rookie year. In 2023 he had value but the numbers behind it suggested he wouldn't be good. But he was! Better than any year since 2016!

Some bench players will out perform when seen in small doses but Alex Call hitting .343 / .425 / .525  was crazy even if for ~100 PA.

Unlucky 

While last year's mediocrity tempered expectations, there really wasn't any reason to think Keibert Ruiz would continue to regress and become a flat out bad offensive player.

The flip side of Alex Call is Eddie Rosario .186 / .226 / .329 is surprisingly bad after an average 2023.  They caught the last year of his career. It happens. It's bad luck. 

Your #2 and #3 relievers both catching the low end of things (Harvey is having his ERA not match his in a vacuum performance thanks to some untimely balls getting through, Rainey really struggling to come back from injury) is low end bad luck but should be mentioned.

As Expected

Some free agents hit (Winker) some don't (Gallo) some are worth trying into their mid 30s because they are probably still good (Floro) some aren't even under 30 because they are probably never going to be good (Senzel).  Sunrise Sunset.

Young players can vary. Luis Garcia Jr seemed to have this in him. Trey Lipscomb may simply barely be org depth. Wood can come in and pretty much immediately be good. Crews can come in and look like he needs some more experience. Some variation is standard. 

 CJ Abrams had a wild ride but ended up kind of where you thought. Well not in AAA that was not expected but we're talking about season performance. 

Pretty much everyone else. Scour the team and it's hard to find anything unusual. This was the team that was built and it mostly

Similar to last year the Nats weren't trying to be good. Similar to last year the Nats caught more breaks than they didn't. Some BIG breaks pitching wise with Williams and the no downside kids, that lead to a lot of decent innings on the mound and a few wins more than the team was built for. Add in some aggressive baserunning and a bounce or two of game luck and here we are. 

DISsimilar to last year there is expected to be some improvements next year because the talent here is now real major league level talent. How good can Wood be? Will Crews step up next year? Who is CJ Abrams really? Can those young arms keep being decent? Just sticking with what the Nats have isn't a recipe for success. It's a recipe for a couple more wins with a lot of variance. Say expect 73 wins but 81 or 65 being possible. What's going to set expectations is what kind of FA moves they make. Make the right ones and that variation becomes enough to get the Nats into the playoff hunt if things break right for them.  But you have to expect SOMETHING right? Like so mid to upeer 70s is the floor of likely expectations unless like Gore needs TJ and Wood breaks his leg in an off-season ATV accident.

Who to root for - a little late

 Do you base all rooting interests on the Nationals? Would you base your rooting interest in the playoffs on the teams with the most National ties? If so... 

GONE TOO SOON

Braves 

Former Nats pitcher Reynaldo Lopez was a great starter for the Braves but they would shift him to reliever at the end. Mistake? They aren't still playing are they? Also on the Braves, Eddie Rosario. Yuk.  Glad ya lost

Brewers

Joe Ross was on the Brewers as the season ended. He did fine!

Astros

With Dusty gone the most Nationals person with the Astros is GM Dana Brown - who was the director of scouting until Rizzo took over the GM role. How'd he end up GM if his Expos/Nats scouting was... mediocre at best? Time and a stint with the Braves that was actually good.  Player wise it's barren on the post-season roster but Old Friend (tm) Wander Suero is in the org and was on the mound when the AAA team Sugarland clinched the AAA title. 

Orioles 

Daniel Johnson, former Nats draft pick who ended up traded to Cleveland was there. That's it 

STILL IN IT TO WIN IT

Yankees

You may have heard of a little player named Juan Tiberius* Soto. Only one but it's a big one.

Royals

The Royals picked up Hunter Harvey mid season to help with their playoff push. He got hurt very quickly. Other than that no Nats. 

Tigers

No Nats

Guardians

Lane Thomas was traded to Cleveland and was disappointing... until he crushed a bomb to open up the ALDS. 

 

Mets

Jesse Winker, another traded guy, is the obvious one but who could forget long time Nat Reed Garrett (9IP in 2022) finally finding his form for this Mets team?

Phillies

Trea Turner. Bryce Harper. Kyle Schwarber.  I mean this is basically the Nats team that could have been.

Padres

What happened on August 8th, 2024? That's when Carl Edwards Jr threw his one inning of major league work this year.

Dodgers

Blake Treinen and his talent at pitching good and somehow seeming bad is playing his fourth season for the Dodgers. Daniel Hudson, at Dodger before he was a Nat, has been in LA since 2022 and actually pitched a full season this year! (he was ok). Ever the resourceful team they've made use of a Nats' castoff. Anthony Banda, who has made an incredible journey in his career**, including a stop in DC last year, found himself at home in the LA bullpen.

If seeing former Nats makes you happy, you are rooting for a Phillies Yankees World Series

If it makes you sad, you are rooting for Padres facing either the Tigers or Royals.

*May not be his actual middle name 

** drafted by the Dbacks, refused, drafted by Milwuakee, traded to Arizona, made his debut with Arizona in 2017 then traded to Tampa (2018-2020), DFA'd and traded to SFG for cash (minors only 2021), traded to Mets (2021), DFA's then grabbed by Pittsburgh off waivers (2021-2022), DFA'd then traded to TOR for cash (2022), DFA'd, rejected assignment, signed with Mariners (minors only 2022), opted out, signed with Yankees (2022), DFA'd went to minors, elected FA, signed with Nationals (2023) in off season.  DFA'd spent season in minors. Elected FA, signed with Cleveland (minors only 2024), traded to Dodgers

Pete Rose - dead

I'd say RIP but that guy doesn't really deserve to rest in peace. 

Pete Rose ended his career with 4256 hits.  That's about 70 more than #2 Ty Cobb but almost 500 more (getting close to 15%) more than #3 (Hank Aaron if you didn't know). That's a lot of hits.  A couple of guys in the last 20 years have gotten within a 1000 hits.  Albert Pujols (3384) was close until age 34, and in fighting range until 37 but petered out like most players would as he hit his late 30s.  Derek Jeter (3465) was only about 70 behind at age 38, and was beginning to have a serious case for reaching 4000 if not passing Rose, but an serious injury in the playoffs in 2012 left him nothing but a "prove I can still play" comeback season before retirement. 

So how does one become the Hit King? It's simple, but it's not easy. 

Start early and play for a long time: Rose's first season was at 22, not ideal but early enough. He'd play for 24 seasons. 

Stay Healthy : Pete Rose played at least 150 games in 19 of his first 24 seasons, and in one of those he was healthy baseball was just on strike. He played the most games of anyone in baseball history.

Bat Early in the lineup: If you leadoff you will have over a season about 35 more PA than if you bat 3rd, about 70 more than if you bat 5th. The first number is extra season over the course of a 20 year career, or like an extra 200 hits. Rose batted leadoff in about 2/3 of his games, about 1/4 in 2nd and nearly all the rest in the 3rd slot. He had the most PA than anyone in baseball history by almost 2000.

Hit well : all those PA don't matter if you are a scrub. Rose hit .303 for his career, and .315 over a SEVENTEEN year stretch. He averaged 206 hits a season from 1968 through 1979

Don't walk too much: Rose could take a walk when he wanted but preferred to hit, and his walk rate was around 9-10% during much of his career.  So despite crushing the competition in plate appearances. He was a modest 14th in walks for a career. 

Surprise a little at the end : When you get old teams generally are fine getting rid of you after a bad year or two. That means two bad seasons after like 36 can pretty much end your career if you aren't tied to a contract. Pete had his first real off year at age 39 in Philly (his first below average year at the plate since he was 23) and could have been set up for a drop in playing time but he bounced back to hit .325 in the strike year.  He was again off in '82 at 41 and flat out bad in '83.  

Get close to a record : That would have probably been the end but he was at 3990 hits at the end of 1983.  Montreal signed him mostly to get the 4000 hit bump and when they got that and his bounce back was more of a barely noticeable rise they traded him to the Reds to finish his career. The Reds would give him his chance to get to Ty Cobb. Rose would rise as much as he could to the occasion. In his month with the Reds in '84 he hit .365(!) and in the following year he began focusing on walks. Despite hitting .265 with his power long gone he managed to have an average offensive year because his OBP was nearly .400. Not great for a 1B but for a guy chasing a record for a middling team it was ok

Refuse to quit : The one thing I'll admire Rose for, which I admire in any player. Refusing to walk away when it's clear you aren't the same player you were, refusing to step aside until the game is ripped from you is a quality one needs to achieve the highest numbers. While I don't care about the chase I do say play until you can't because you aren't getting another chance. Pete did that. While his modest homer power died early around age 31, he was still a doubles machine until age 40. But in that second off year in 1982 it was clear he was just a singles hitter who couldn't play the field. Some guys let pride or shame screw with them. Rose definitely did not feel shame

 

Is there anyone close to Pete now? Manny Machado thanks to a career starting at age 19 is in range but isn't the high average hitter Pete was so will slip further behind even if he plays to 40. Same generally goes for Bogaerts, Bryce and Betts, all in the general area but not healthy and/or not high average hitters. Luis Arraez is probably the best prototypical singles hitter but got a late start so basically can't afford an off year if he's to keep pace.  

There are three interesting possibilities - as much as anyone can be for such a ridiculous target. Ronald Acuna has 815 hits at age 26 (Rose 899) thanks to a two year head start. He's show he CAN hit for high average (.337 last year) but is extremely injury prone you can't see him getting those PA he needs. Vladdy Jr. also had a two year head start and is well ahead of 25yo Rose at the moment 905 hits to 723 hits. He's also been very healthy playing nearly every game now for 5 straight seasons. But while he can hit for average he bounces around as likely to hit .270 as .310.  No the best option is the obvious one. Or let's say the obvious JUAN

Juan Soto had  a three season head start and has 934 hits putting him over a full season better than Rose at the same age. While Soto has had off years no one doubts he could hit over .300... if that was his goal. But Juan also has real power which both lends himself to hitting lower in lineups and lends him to "settle" for hitting like .285 with 40 homers instead of .325 with 25. He makes that up by leaning into something Rose leaned away from, taking walks. While it would be interesting what would happen if baseball told Soto to go for the record, it's likely bringing in more value by smashing homers and getting on base will drop him behind Pete by age 30.

Monday Quickie - The more things stay the same, the more things change

The Nats season is over. They finished 71-91 which is the same record they had last year, but while the numbers are the same, forward progress was clearly made. Last year, they were arguably a low 60s win team by various measures that somehow found itself over 70. This year they were the low 70s win team that they ended up as.

Results like 2023, where the W/L don't match the stats can be caused by "coin flip luck". You happen to get a few more dribblers through with men on base. The opponent hits a few more fly balls to the deepest part of the park. Results like 2024 can also be caused by luck though. Several players finding themselves having years that might be the best of their career, or that one late career bounce back, all at the same time gets you deserved wins but wins you can't count on continuing on*. Trevor Williams pitching like a Cy Young contender for 1/3 of the season can only be described as shocking, but nothing else felt out of order. Rather it felt like the Nats having one of those season where more works out than doesn't and when it's mostly with kids rather than vets beating expectations, you can't dismiss that. Maybe you also can't count on it, but you can certainly get interested in what the future can hold. 

Offensively this season was quietly a bit worse. The Nats made a few bets on veteran bats, some good some inexplicable (hey it's Nick Senzel's music! Which, by the way, is a sad trombone). Like Candelario last year, one really paid off in Jesse Winker. You had a couple guys do well last year it was Thomas and Garrett this year Wood and Garcia Jr. But whereas last year the rest of the lineup was mostly guys below average with one or two stinkers, this year the Nats had a lot of the latter. Last year only Alex Call got more than 200 PA (439) and put up a OPS+ under 85. This year Keibert Ruiz did it (485), Joey Meneses did it (313), Vargas (303), Gallo (260), Rosario (235), and Lipscomb (211).  That's a lot of stink!

But you can certainly argue that outside of Ruiz none of these results were all that important, and while Thomas and Garrett doing well last year was nice, Wood and Garcia Jr doing well this year was important. So the offense was worse but in a way you feel better about where it can go. 

On the mound the Nats improved across the board. Last year the pen was a solid three guys and then a bunch of terrible choices. This year their FA signings worked out well and they watched as almost a full pen of guys threw... well mostly just ok. But a 4.50 ERA is world's better than a 6.50 ERA. All in all this helped elevate the Nats from "really bad after the top" to "below average mix". That kind of improvement matters but probably only would have balanced the lack of hitting by itself. 

No the huge difference was in the starting pitching.  The Nats were bad last year with a lot of bad starters being bad. This year they were still not good but resembled the "rest of the lineup" from the 2023 Nats. A lot of below average guys being below average. Irvin, Parker, and Herz didn't have good results, but they were good enough to keep the team in the game and that slight difference was big enough to matter. And much like with Wood and Garcia, the fact that it was two younger pitchers doing that in Parker and Herz makes you think maybe the Nats can get lucky and one will make the next step. 

We'd be remiss if we didn't talk about the baserunning. The Nats lead the majors in SB and while their success rate dropped it still managed to be around 75% which is about what it needs to be to be a positive. Add in the general disruptiveness of that game plan and it's another new plus.

Defense? They were worse. You might think Jacob Young would have made an impact but him and Call (another excellent fielder) only played like 16% more innings this year. Meanwhile you lost all of Candelario's contribution at 3B and he was very good. While Garcia looks better guys like Abrams and Thomas took big steps back from already not great positions. This is one place for concern moving forward as while Crews does appear to be good, Wood does not. The defense will likely be bad with a couple of bright spots, rather than the preferred, good covering a couple of holes. 

But look at the scoreboard and see how much that matters. The defense didn't stop the Nats from being much better and that will likely be the case again next year. Of course now we get to the main point.

The Nats season wasn't good in a vacuum but it was good for the future. You have the pieces for the potential next run either here (Ruiz, Garcia, Abrams, Wood, Crews, maybe Young or one of the late season guys, Gore, Brzykcy, maybe Irvin, Parker, Herz or Ferrar) or coming soon (House, Yohandy, Lara, Grissom Jr, maybe Lile). The team is ready to try to make the next step. But the next step is big. 

The Phillies, Braves and Mets may be at various stages of their competitive cycles but the simple truth is in 2024 they were all at least 15 games better than the Nats and it wasn't by luck. They are that much better. The Braves and the Mets are the teams fighting for the playoffs. That's the first goal line. High 80s in wins.

If the Nats want to simply get better they can probably follow a similar plan to this year with maybe grabbing a more reliable FA SP to at least take up an inning eating role. Do that, watch the kids improve (or not) and come up (or not) and probably win 5+ more games. But that's only 75-80 wins, still a good bit from the playoffs. No, if they want to feel like they are really making a push they need to be serious actors in the FA market. They have been before, so we can have some hope, but times change. Already they have started this run differently by not grabbing that Werth-like big FA in assumption that the team would come together. What else might be different? 

2024 was not exactly what you wanted as a Nats fan but it was probably what you could reasonably expect a positive year to be. You didn't have a lucky run to .500, the Nats weren't really ever playoff relevant, beginning their slide well in advance of when playoff spots are thought about, and they didn't have a breakout star. But more happened good than bad and the kids got to the majors on time. The team became a team you could watch and expect a competitive, if not exactly winning, baseball game. 

Now what you can reasonably expect for 2025 in my mind, is a couple big FA signings and a team that looks like a good bet for .500 while it watches the kids and figures out where the last couple pieces need to be to make the playoffs. Will we get that? Let's find out.

 

*Wanted to note with Zaidi out in SF this is EXACTLY how SF won 107 games a few years ago. Buster Posey, Evan Longoria and Alex Wood had their last good seasons. Belt, Crawford, Ruf, Duggar, Gausman, and DeScalfini all had their best years ever (ok best 2year block for Belt).   No one basically underperformed. It was what happens when EVERYTHING goes right for a team that should win like 80-85 games. All those +1 WARs add up into something crazy.

How are the Kids doing #3 - MacKenzie Gore

The short take on Gore's 2024 is that he got better but didn't become the ace the Nats hoped for. But probably most importantly he was healthy the whole year completing over 30 starts, something not given based on Gore's injury history. If this is all he is - a solid dependable #3 type - then that is enough, though the potential remains for more. 

The big difference between this year and last was a return to a more balanced repertoire. Gore kind of gave up on his change last year focusing more on his swing and miss pitches and control of those.  The result was an increase in strikeouts and a decrease in walks, as hoped but also an increase in home runs. Guys could guess what he'd throw. They didn't guess right often and his stuff was still good - his hard hit % stayed about the same- but when they were right they punished him.  This year he incorporated more changeups and the results were notable. A big drop in hard hit%, a big drop in homers, a big drop in barrels. Opponents were more off balance. Yes adding back in a pitch they didn't swing and miss much at meant they put the ball in play more and that means more hits but he was able to maintain his control. The control of power with roughly the same K and BB rate meant a better pitcher.

Where can Gore improve to take the next step? It's making a jump forward in control. Although he managed to improve his control last year, it was only from "this cannot continue" to "one of the wildest starters in the game". Maintaining that for this year was important, while adding back in his change, but if he's going to be a top of the rotation type he's going to have to cut it way down, by like half a walk a game or more. And it's a balancing act. If having more control means giving up more homers there a point where it won't be worth it. 

I'm not exactly sure he can make this step.  While the HR bump in 2023 was an aberration, he'd pretty much always kept the ball in the park, the walk issue has dogged him for a while. Simply having strong stuff kept it down in the very low minors. Guys would chase more. But that isn't the case now. Without a sense that the control can come I don't know if it's something we should expect. 

On the positive side though he really should be getting slightly better results this year and his ERA should be just on the other side of 4.00 as opposed to the higher end. 

As Gore is hitting 26 there's limited time for real improvement. One of the least talked about truths in sport is you generally show what you are very quickly. Gore's improvement shows importantly that he's able to put together the best version of what he is, but 2024 might be it. 

I'd say personally I'm satisfied with Gore. There is a LOT of value in a good healthy #3 type. Sure, I want him to be an ace, but that's probably not going to happen. I'd bet against it. What I'd now hope for is for him to continue to improve. Moving from a 4.00 ERA type to a 3.50+ ERA type that he should be able to do with some minor changes and better luck.  That's more of a solid if not exciting #2 and the type that can give the rotation stability. 

Gore won't be a kid after this year but how did the kid do? Pretty good.