3 Nats in Top 101 prospects

BP put out it's list of the Top 100 + 1 prospects and three Nats made the list. 

Dylan Crews at #2

Jarlin Susana at #47

Travis Sykora at #59

 I feel like we went over it when Elijah Green was stuck at the bottom of some of the Top 100s but these type of lists are some measure of talent evaluation and some measure of "if we miss out on someone breaking out and someone else has them on their list we're going to look bad". So the trend to evaluate raw talent high over decent production is there. It's not overwhleming but expect that slightly bigger bets to be bumped up a bit while lower bets are downgraded. 

That's one way to not feel bad about who is NOT on the list. Brady House was kicked to the curb.  Does this mean he's no good anymore? No. It's sort of a bet that he's not going to bust out. That ship is sailing away.  I wouldn't say it's gone. He won't be 22 until mid next season. But the guys who know want to see something more. This is definitely not what a team punting 3B wants to see.

Crews at #2 is great to hear. It means the belief he won't bust out is as high as can be.  That is FAR from a given. Any look at previous lists will tell you that. But still teams need players who can contribute and Crews projects to be one.There shouldn't be a real hole in his game. The question is where the bat falls. That he's that high suggests they like the possibility of him of hitting above average and that would make him an overall great player with his defense and speed projections. 

Susana and Sykora are similar type of evaluations. They are young guys with killer stuff that have dominated low minor hitters. You want to put these guys on the list because if they make it to AA next year and dominate then they jump way up. So this is exactly where you want to see your young SP arms. It's still more likely both miss, but it's not that much more likely than one hitting and one hitting, if they can stay healthy, is huge. 

Three prospects on the list would be about in line with expectations. But I think this is a little better than just expected given Wood, another Top 10 guy, graduated to the majors and where these guys lie.  I like players in the top of the Top 10.  I like very young pitchers in that 50 range. This is much better than your top guy being a hitter around 10-15, then having a young toolsy OF around 60 and a older SP arm at 97.  It's a good set-up... for a team in 2026/2027/2028.    

 

Monday Quickie - Jorge Lopez and a general growing sense of discontent

 The Nats signed Jorge Lopez over the weekend to a 3 million dollar deal. It's fine. Simillar to deals in the past for the likes of Dylan Floro the Nats are picking up someone in his early 30s who had some success in the past hoping that they can recapture that. 

The gamble on Lopez is a little bit different than on Floro. Floro had an off year before signing with the Nats but had been good pretty much every year before that, and had good fancy stats in 2023.  You were making the solid bet that the fancy stats and history were right not the one year aberration in ERA.  Lopez, pitched pretty good last year, but has a limited history as a reliever that is a bit spotty with some bad fancy stats at times. You are making the slightly less solid bet that 2023 was the aberration and 2022 and 2024 were real. As I say - still solid as Lopez is a couple years younger and just had a pretty good year. 

Basically Jorge Lopez was Kyle Finnegan last year so this represents a lateral move there with significant cost savings. Good for Rizzo. 

But of course we've said Kyle Finnegan isn't really all that good.  Very consistently better than average but that's about it. So replacing him with him isn't making the pen that much better, it's just inching it back to where it was last year which was meh. 

It's a good move. It makes the Nats better than they were the day before. However unlike a move like Lowe, it's not making the Nats better than they were in October. We've said they are probably down to RP moves. They should be making the pen significantly better than last year. Something that can be done fairly cheaply with a bunch of pretty good but not great arms taking up every spot. If everything else is over in FA, let's do that at least.

A-mid Rosario.

Nats are signing Amed Rosario.  He has two uses. It's definitely NOT hitting. He can make contact but it's very weak and his ISO SLG always very low.

The first one is iffy.  He can play SS, 2B and presumably 3B.  But he has no instinct for fielding and tries to get by with his natural talent. A solid arm helps but at the IF positions a lack of instinct is hard to overcome. This is why he's seen more time in the OF as his career has gone on. Still very spotty though. 

What skill does he have then? The guy is very fast. He can run the bases and would be an excellent pinch runner. His speed helps turn a weak GB hitter like him into a .280 hitter. Well .280 is a stretch - that IF hit % that got him there last year seems like a fluke - but .265+ even nearing 30 and probably slowing a bit. He's an excellent pinch runner. 

Do the Nats need a pinch runner? Probably not or at least not more than a guy that can hit. Wood, Crews, Young, Abrams are all fast. Call, Nunez, and Tena all on the possible bench, are all fast. Seems like having a fast guy available shouldn't be a problem. 

I guess they do need a Vargas replacement. I guess Rosario basically that but replacing decent fielding with lightning fast speed. That doesn't seem like the replacement I would make but also how much will Rosario play? Probably not too much. And if you aren't playing then being a good hitter or a good runner is better than an ok fielder. I guess.

Monday Quickie - Have Nats fans been snowed?

Are you happy?

That's the question for Nats fans as they look at an off-season that right now stands as this : 

• Signed the rehabilitating Mike Soroka and the potential fluke Trevor Williams to shore up the rotation. 
• Traded for the perfectly good Nathaniel Lowe to play 1B
• Signed Josh Bell to DH. 

If I were to give an off-season evaluation RIGHT NOW (which matters only slightly more than an evaluation on November 1st) I'd say they tried to solve the first base issue, punted on the DH issue, and it looks like they've decided to run another year of kids in the rotation trying to evaluate what exactly they have. 

It's the off-season for a team on the path to contention (you don't trade for Lowe otherwise) but not looking to contend in 2025.  If it happens they'll take it, but this looks like a team aiming to break .500 not close in on 90 wins. This isn't just me but the general consensus out there.

Is that the right move? You know I don't think so. At some point you have to commit to a run and I think now is the time. I think the Nats are running a year behind where they should be. There will likely always be questions. We thought this year might clear up what guys like Gore and Abrams are. It didn't or at least not enough to plan on. While Garcia became less of a question, Ruiz and Gray became greater ones. That's the way seasons go. Waiting for absolute clarity on what must be done might mean waiting forever.

There are four big FAs left (Alonso, Bregman, Santander, and Flaherty) and any one of them fits into the Nats well. However, the signing of Bell likely rules out Alonso or Santander. Signing just one of Bregman or Flaherty likely isn't enough to make them a contender. So sign both? Or sign neither and hope next year the pieces you need will be there AND you can get them?

I'll admit that's not an easy call outside of "not my money - sign everyone" thinking. Which of course is my thinking. So sign both. 

But in reality they are probably done with SP signings and their potential to land Bregman lies with Boras using the Nats as a 1yr stopping point if the contract he wants isn't out there. Our best bet for financially based improvement lies in the bullpen where solid quality arms still are out there. That's my expectations. A couple of solid FA RP signings then head to camp with an eye on getting over .500 and maybe getting to 3rd place, catching whichever Mets/Braves/Phillies team stumbles. 

If that's 2025... well sure hope those kids like Wood and Crews are exciting bc it's not a season that interests me much. Wait 'til next year is not what you want to hear in March.

Trevor Williams?

 There’s still time but this offseason is definitely shaping up to be “what can we do cheaply in the next year or two, while we continue to evaluate the kids”

There’s ways this is ok.  Like if it’s a pre-cursor to long term deals for the kids followed up by big contracts in the next couple of off-seasons. But for a squad that looked primed to take a big step forward in 2025 this “it’s in the baseball gods hands now” approach is disappointing.  Especially in a very competitive NL East where a GOOD team might end up under .500

Josh Bell? Uhh... ok?

Bell is back! 

Quick thoughts - uh oh. 

This means to me the Nats aren't serious about making the playoffs next year which really I think they should be.  They could surprise me with a big FA starter and some solid relief pick-ups but this really seems like the end of the batting pick-ups and I can't see thing being enough to make the line-up good.  It can be, the kids can do things, but you can't expect it to be better than average and that's a stretch. 

Bell is average and getting worse. All the fancy stats are in decline and he's at the age where that can happen. If the Nats get an average season from him they should feel happy. Better bet is he's worse this year and the Nats DH woes continue. 

More tomorrow

Perfectly good player incoming!

The Nats traded Robert Garcia for Nathaniel Lowe from the Rangers. It's a solid, if unspectacular move that makes the Nats better, without giving up too much or costing them a lot of money leaving them the ability to do other things to help the team. 

The good is pretty obvious.  Lowe hits around .260+ walks about 75 times and hits about 17 homers.  That's good enough for a 110+ OPS+ which is good enough for Top 10-15 offense in the MLB (1st base has taken quite a dip).  Pair this with a Top 5ish defense at the position and you have one of the better first baseman in the league.  In a sense in production he replaces what Jesse Winker would have done for the team if he stayed for the full season, though in a wildly different way, maybe even a little better. 

What's the downside? On the Lowe side not much.  You could definitely argue that what the Nats were really lacking was power and that's the one thing Lowe doesn't bring. This is something that Carlos Santana or Paul Goldschmidt, both signed for about the cost of Lowe, have. He also had his worst power year of his career last year. Is he on the downslide? It's one thing to hit 17 homers.  It's another to hit 12. 

You can also look at last year and see it's not just luck, pretty much ALL his fancy stats like hard-hit%, barrels, even things related to his patience like chase % went down.  If this is the start of a decline he doesn't have too far to fall before he's below average at the plate. And if it was an aberration. one could say the ceiling on Lowe is about as "low" as it could be. He's just good. That's it. 

But back to good, Lowe will turn 30 next year so while he could crash next year, you'd be better betting on that from Santana or Goldschmidt. And while Walker isn't OLD (sorry Anonymous commenter) he is old and a better bet to crash thought not to the level of the guys nearing 40. 

What about Robert Garcia?  I think people are underrating the impact of this move.  It's not that Robert Garcia was great. He was a the kind of pitcher that could be special. A lot of Ks, very few homers, and solid against all sides of the plate. But he walked just a few too many and gave up just a couple too many hits and had a bit too much bad luck to be more than good. Can he get to special? Probably! but at 29 next year you generally don't feel bad betting on things just continuing on as is.  

No the problem isn't Garcia, the problem is the Nats.  Robert Garcia was one of only TWO pitchers that the Nats have in the pen that seemed likely to be good. (Derek Law being the other) Right now the Nats pen is a huge gaping hole and when they are currently relying on a lot of young inexperienced arms and only brought in oft-injured arm to help this spells trouble.  

But lucky they have a bunch of money left to help solve this problem! 

Soroka was a good move IF they did other things to the rotation.  Lowe is just a good move. It's not game changing but it's the type of move that makes sense no matter what the Nats do the rest of the off-season.  Hopefully this isn't all they do of course.