MacKenzie Gore steps up?

 MacKenzie Gore was always supposed to be a star but pitching prospects are extremely fickle. Factor in injuries and his development hasn't gone exactly as planned. Not that he hasn't been useful but if you said before 2020 that going into 2025 Gore's career stats would read 21-26 with a 4.20 ERA, 4.14 FIP and 1.422 WHIP you'd be disappointed.  Those are the numbers of a #3 type starter, not an ace. 

 At the major league level, and really at all levels since 2020, his problem has been two-fold. Too hittable and too many walks.  So while his homer rate has generally been ok and his strikeout rate generally good, guys would get on and guys would get around. His innings would be long and he just couldn't last long into games. He was just another pitcher. 

This year so far we've seen a different Gore.  His control is much better. He's getting ahead of batters (first pitch strike percentage is way up, getting more called strikes, and throwing in the zone more. This is giving him control of the at bats and keeping his walks down but strikeouts high. He appears to be leaning more into his curve ball, arguably his best pitch taking a bit off his fastball and a lot off his slider to make it match his change up more in speed. This is something he did in 2023 but got away from in 2024.  The difference from 2023 though is he was a fastball pitcher who used a slider and curve to mix things up. Last year he really bumped up the change and now he's a four pitch pitcher, where the slider and change hit about the same speed keeping hitters more off-balance. 

Pitching can be about learning what works and doesn't. And what works in the minors isn't necessarily what works in the majors. He could throw that speedball by them and then use a hammer curve and later the solid slider to finish hitters off in high school and low minors. But major league hitters weren't as easily beat. His fastball doesn't quite pop enough to rely on it to beat a hitter (see Ohtani last night) and his slider could be flat at times (see Ohtani last night). Since the curve could be fairly easily identified hitters could lay off that and handle Gore even with in general pretty good stuff. Locate the fastball though, lean more into a hard to hit curveball, make the slider able to be confused with a tumbling change-up, well you start to see what happens. 

I'm not sure this is something that will last. It hasn't been perfect as his start in Toronto was full of hits. And we've seen pitchers run through a couple good starts.  Hell, we've seen them run through a couple good months. But if you could spell out what you wanted to see from Gore early this is it. Honestly looking forward now to his next start to see if we can get more confirmation that he'pitching different and that it makes a difference.

Monday Quickie - vacation again?

 Look I don't set the school schedule. 

The Nats avoided the sweep and as they get ready to take on Toronto here are the takeaways

- the rotation looked good continuing the trend of last year

- The bullpen looked bad 

- the kids weren't alright at the plate

- but the pickups were doing ok 

 

Don't get too excited or sad. It's time to keep watching and see how things go 

It was the best of Opening Days... you know the rest

 If you were hoping Gore would take a step forward, yesterday's game was a dream come true. With all the caveats (First real game for everyone, only one game, afternoon game where it's notoriously harder to hit) Gore looked amazing.  He was completely in control letting only one Phillie reach the basepaths and striking out 13 in only 6 innings. A masterful performance.

Also if you understand the importance of Keibert Ruiz being good (giving he's sort of set to be the starting C for at least a couple more years) seeing him get around on a pitch and drive it over fence - along with having another hit made you smile, too.  Ruiz doesn't have to be good in any certain way.  Low average power hitter instead of high-average line-driver? That's fine. He just has to be above average. Good start. 

The Nats also didn't give up.  Down late they mounted a comeback to send the game to extras.

 Of course the Nats didn't win the game there and there were a couple of "well as long as this isn't that bad" and "no way this could be as bad as last year" that were the reason why prompting deserved worry just one game in.

Gore probably had another inning in him but at 93 pitches on Opening Day, these days most managers would opt to go to the pen. For all of this teams "old school" stylings this team doesn't stray from the script here. The pen was brought in and it looked TERRIBLE. Both Poche and Sims, guys that weren't good and where you looked at Spring and said "oh well they are going to be cut" made the team and immediately performed poorly, blowing the game in the 7th and the 10th respectively.  This is a big worry for a team who's pitching staff is most likely going to be 4ish guys keeping the game respectable for 6 innings. They need the last 3 innings to also be respectable. 

 Also although not directly responsible for the loss, Paul DeJong looked every bit the guy that would be let go by the White Sox because he's not good anymore.  Paul has always been a pretty high strikeout guy and when he gets past that point where he can connect with enough pitches hard to matter he's going to be unplayable. Yesterday suggested he might be there. Third base was a huge hole for the Nats last year, if it's a huge hole again well then there goes some of the expected gains at the plate. 

Which Nats do you want to focus on - the promise or the horror? Opening Day gave you both.

What's your win guess?

It's pretty safe to say the Nats won't make the playoffs. The Nats are clearly the 4th best team in their own tough division leaving one WC spot for them to contest. To do that they'd likely have to get something in the neighborhood of 16 games better, a huge jump when you're not starting at 50 wins. Even when you make a concerted effort to improve by leaps and bounds that's too big an ask and the Nats didn't make a concerted effort to improve that much.

 But the Nats are better, or at least should be slightly.  Offensively for sure. First base, with the addition of Nathaniel Lowe, likely becomes very solid. Paul DeJong a 3B isn't going to wow anyone anymore but could hardly be worse than the Lipscomb/Senzel/Vargas/Tena manning. There are real possibilities of breakouts from Wood and/or Crews and Abrams and Garcia both can also improve. Only Bell replacing the 2/3rds a year of Winker stands to be worse. 

Starting pitching is a bit of a mystery with a lot hinging on the development of Gore and the reliability of Williams (both health and results). The other guys are here to be average. There's a lot of ways this can swing as there doesn't seem to be anything reliable here outside of Gore should not be bad. But letting it all even out and land on an average, if unexciting, rotation seems the simplest answer. 

Relief pitching probably does take a step back. Neither Poche or the likely roster maker Sims match up to Law and Floro in expectations (and that's not a high bar) and the loss of Harvey also hurts. But unless the pen totally implodes that's unlikely to matter more than the improvement at the plate. 

On the basepaths the Nats were very aggressive and that really helped support the team's offense. The team is still young and none of the losses and additions suggest a change in approach so we'll assume the same stategy and results. 

 

Fancy stats wise the Nats were basically the team they showed as, 71-91.  If they are slightly better I can see them getting to 74-75 wins.  If that isn't because of a fast start that means not only do the Nats not make the playoffs, but they aren't ever really in the picture.  That's what most of the pundits are thinking. I would say that's fair. 

This is a team that could have been built to be over .500 and have a shot to get into the playoffs if things broke their way. It wasn't. The Nats continued their slow improvement looking toward the kids for any real push forward. With a handful of top prospects that could happen, but I'm going with the safe bet and just expect a few games better in 2025 and the set-up for a make or break off-season between the ownership and the fans. 

 74-88 

DJ Hurtz

 DJ Herz is going on the IL.  His ligament is sprained and that's not good news from probably the most interesting young starting pitcher. It's also a stark reminder that while Trevor Williams only gave the Nats 1/3 of a season and Josiah Gray got hurt in the early part of April, they virtually escaped injury once they were rolling. Decent pitching that comes out every day can do a lot for a team. Hell it almost carried the 2005 team to the playoffs!

 Pretty disappointing for a number of reasons but we have to move on with what we have

 And what we have with the rotation is now set for sure with Shinny gettng the expected send down. 

 Gore - Williams - Soroka - Irvin - Parker. 

 A lot rides on if Gore will EVER make the next step and if Williams' success is some sort of fever dream. Yes and No, it could be an interesting, if ultimately futile season. No and Yes and hey Miami, mind if we join you? 

The rotation is the only thing set.  The bullpen is still fighting over the last spots. Poche made it (as far as I can tell solely to be another lefty) and Law looks pretty certain to be out on the IL. Lord, Ribalta, Rutledge, Salazar and Sims are not locked in.  All I've heard is that Sims is in, in the "let the veteran arm do his thing" which then means the Nats will have two guys, in Poche and him, that aren't that good and showed badly in the pre-season. Sigh.  Ok look I like Salazar. I hope he makes it.

For some reason Riley Adams is still fighting with Andrew Knizer for the bench catcher and Adams would have to clear waivers.  They got rid of Nunez and with Chappy hurt that leaves Tena and Yepez if Rosario is hurt. 

Anyway - we'll find out just before game time Thursday for some clown show reason. 

Eh let's get 2025 over with.

More like No-gas-awara

There are more obvious plays off his first name but you come here for creativity. 

The Nats signed Shinnosuke Ogasawara for a 2 year 3.5 million dollar contract. The deal remains a low ball try something deal so if it doesn't work out it's not a big thing. But man, it doesn't seem to be working out.  The guy had a problem missing bats in the Japanese league, relying on strike zone control and the Japanese Leagues overall low homer rate to get decent results. In Spring though it looks like he can't miss enough bats. They are getting hits and homers off of him at a high enough rate to force him to try to do things to miss those bats, leading to more walks which negates his one strength. 

I don't know what you do about this because that was always a possibility.  Essentially he's a AA/AAA pitcher with decent results but not much of a prospect called up to see what he can do. We've seen a ton of those and they usually fail, for a lot less than 3.5 million too. 

If you want to look to him as a reliever then you might focus on a 2022 that featured a higher than average K-rate as evidence he can step it up. Of course that's basically the only season he's done that in his 20s but it was recent, I guess. 

Whatever you think I can't see him starting in the majors. It's AAA for Shinnosuke. 

Nats make more cuts.

 Nothing surprising but Hassell, House, Lipscomb, Garrett, Clay Helvey, and Andrew Pickeney were all sent packing... to the minors.   That leaves 35 healthy men on the roster so 10 more to cut.   here's a list

One of the C goes, they definitely won't carry Yepez AND Tena, two starters are definitely gone a couple relievers and probably all the NRIs (Knizer, Poche, and Lord) none of which are making a mark.  that's an easy nine.  I'd bet on the other of Yepez/Tena going down and there you have it. We done. 

Starters - Herz is having issues that scream "send me down to work it out" and Ogasawara needs to be evaluated to see where he should be.  That's pretty easy, too.  

Relievers is a little tougher because a bunch of guys who should make it look real bad. Finnegan, Law, Lopez, Sims.   Of course they haven't pitched much at all so expect Sims the only odd man out here. Make me guess and I'd say Rutledge is back down to get more in the reliever mindset but what do I know. 

Getting close to Opening Day (US version).  Not excited but it'll be good to have a daily distraction back