No Vargas?

Vargas (and Joey Meneses) hit the FA market.  I am surprised for all the reasons I noted below. 

It's seems pretty good they are moving on.  Likely this means they see Jose Tena as the future utility man as he is a lot younger and has the potential to hit a bit better.  His defense is right now probably comparable to Vargas which actually shows well for Vargas who is 8-9 years older.  I'd expect that he would be worse in his late 20s but that's half a decade away. In the meantime there's really no downside unless you think Vargas' clubhouse presence will be missed a lot.  Joey was also kind of liked from what I could tell so we'll see. Winning makes guys feel a lot better about the clubhouse without clubhouse guys needed. 

Monday Quickie - FA season has begun

Lot's of opt-outs, options declined, etc. Let's go!

For the Nats the main thing that happened was they declined their Joey Gallo option. That was the only option on the table for 2025 and his performances was bad in the off-year Gallo way, which is to say OMG TERRIBLE HIDE YOUR EYES so this is no surprise.  We wish Joey well on whatever team picks him up for peanuts and hops that they can squeeze one last good year out of him

The Nats really don't have to do any funny business now. They have enough 40 man spots open to eat up the IL players that need to be back on. They of course, won't all be on the 40 man at the start of the season but for now they go back on and they'll drip back to the minors as the off-season progresses. Mason Thompson, Cade Cavalli, and Nasim Nunez are easy return to the minors choices as you have to think they start the season there.

It's all looking forward, except for maybe Rule V.  They have to protect Hassell this year which you would expect them to do.

In general the Nats have not been early movers and things don't get going until after the Winter Meetings (Dallas Dec 8-11) so as interested as we are it'll likely be a waiting game until then.   But if you are interested some of the bigger pre-Winter Meetings moves the Nats have made in the Rizzo time frame

• pre-2013 : Traded Alex Meyer for Denard Span. 
• pre-2019 : Ill-fated Trevor Rosenthal signing, not ill-fated Kurt Suzuki signing, Trading for Yan Gomes, Signing Patrick Corbin
• pre-2023 : picked up Jeimer Candelario

 

Funny that their WS year was the only year filled with early moves. 

In other news, Jacob Young did NOT win the Gold Glove he probably deserved (but the winner wasn't a chump) 

Offseason Position Discussion : Second Base

Garcia opened 2024 in a precarious position. After taking a mild step forward in 2022, he did not have a good 2023 at the plate. Toward the end of that year the Nats, as they are wont to do, singled Garcia out as a player to make an example of and unexpectedly dropped him to the minors. If you are thinking I'm misjudging the situation and he deserved it as part of a larger issue with concentration - the idea of him being "sloppy" or "making too many mistakes" just isn't backed up by the data. Don't feel bad, even I bought into some of the spin they were putting out. Turns out though he made real improvements from 2022 to 2023 both on defense and on the basepaths. No, this was a guy simply not hitting who the Nats wanted to hold up as a warning sign to young players. This is what they do.

He did not hit in AAA or at first when brought back up but perhaps the Nats ploy did work in the end because Garcia hit great in the last two weeks of 2023 and better than he ever has in 2024. This includes a scorching July and August where he hit .like .340 with 8 homers. I think most importantly though the Nats didn't try to make him more selective and let him hit. Walk-rate down, K-rate up but a LOT better hitter. His defense continued to improve and he had another solid year baserunning. In no aspects was he great but he was good all around from the start of the season and secured the position for himself for 2025.

Presumed Plan : 

Luis Garcia Jr will man 2B with Vargas backing him up.

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

After C, 1B, and DH you might think the Nats are in big trouble, but really that's was just a bad starting point for the team. They have several things set pretty well for 2025 and second base is one of them. Garcia Jr isn't one of the best second baseman in the game but he might squeak into the Top 10 and he's most certainly not a problem. We talked about it a little in the start of the off-season. He hit the ball a lot better. At 24 he can still improve so this is a no-brainer. 

The Vargas back-up call is about flexibility. Vargas not only played 2B and 3B but SS and OF when needed. That kind of positional flexibility is very nice to have.

My Take : 

Not much here. Garcia has solidified himself at 2B. It's possible he has an off-year again and the Nats sour on him. They do seem to focus on players in this way. But Garcia has generally looked ok enough that you shouldn't consider him a problem. Last year there was a question if someone would push him from the minors, either Lipscomb/Kieboom straight up or a shifted House. The first two didn't push and House didn't shift. With no one pushing him from the minors he's set. I don't think there will be any disagreement from the rabble.

Vargas is a nice defender.  Best at third but being able to fill in late on D at even SS is a boon for a team who have a bunch of guys that look like they should be good on D but aren't. Plus by all accounts he's a great clubhouse guy. Shame he can't hit at all, but at least he does make contact. Weak, weak contact, but contact.  In terms of issues, "utility infielder could hit better" might rank last on things to fix so while it could become a drag if the Nats suffer any long term injury problems, for right now Vargas makes sense. Worry about fixing this if you are making a title push and want no holes.

Offseason Position Discussion : DH

It's probably more correct to say the Nats didn't have a DH this year. No one started more than 29 games there and 7 guys had at least 14 starts.  DH for the Nats wasn't a position to fill, but a drop off place for guys that weren't playing that day. 

They wanted Meneses to play DH with Gallo at 1B but when that all imploded they tried Senzel the Rosario (this is really a comedy of errors) before settling on Winker. Winker would be traded though and it was mostly Chaparro after that.  However neither Winker or Chaparro, good elsewhere, were good at DH and the Nats ended up with a .205 /.274 / .341 line* from a position in the lineup only there to hit. 

Yikes.

Presumed Plan : 

A FA signing that can be had cheap assuming they go in on 1B.  Otherwise the FA signing goes here and 1B is cheap

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

The Nats aren't spending money like crazy people. They certainly have shown they will commit money to the team before but they've never been the types to top the league in payroll. They probably** will put out for two big contracts this off-season and stands to reason that they would go with one SP and one 1B/DH and try to solve the rest internally or trades or cheap FA. That's probably the most impactful way to spend on two big contract. 

Since 1B matters more makes sense that would get the deal, but reality might push them to DH if their initial plans don't come to fruition. Unfortunately pure DH players are not easy to find anymore as guys can't hit like they used to. There really isn't an ideal candidate outside of the obvious one that is clearly a primary goal for every team. Juan Soto.

They could go after Juan. He will be very expensive. The Mets and Yankees both are likely willing to pay top dollar along with probably 1 or 2 other teams. Other teams may also be in the mix at first.  The Nats have overpaid (Werth) and been the biggest contract guys (Max) before. However, they seem less confident than they did when they went after Werth and aren't looking for that last piece as it was when they signed Max. They could do it but no one feels very confident they will. Until then, the plan falls to a boring sign a 1B and adding a one-year bounce back deal into the DH mix.

My Take :  

Signing Soto would be the serious move. It makes the offense immediately much better, an offense that is 12th and 14th in RS in the NL the past two years and 15th in homers in both.  Yes it was 13th and 15th respectively in Soto's last year but there are pieces around now that really make it hard to believe Soto won't pull them up closer to average at least. 

But Soto is expensive. 

I wouldn't care. He's a multi-generational hitter with an incredible eye and great power and most importantly he's super young and has been healthy.  You aren't going to get a more sure bet on a player for the next 5 years than on Soto hitting.

But the reality is the Nats may give it an honest try and still lose out. If that happens they need to have a fall back plan and as I've noted 1B has an obvious solution. DH, post Soto does not. They need to honestly gauge their ability to get Soto and if they think they can't get him, move on quick so they aren't left with mediocre choices later in the FA period. 

It is the time for action. The Nats need to be in on players that multiple teams want and they need to be on them quickly.

*Amazingly only 26th in baseball. 

** I mean they got to right?

Where's your pride?

The Yankees won last night (yay!) and oddly enough it was the first time since 1970 a G4 was won by the team down 0-3.  In fact of the 24 times before this year a team has been up 3 games to none, 21 times it ended in a sweep and the other 3 ended in Game 5.  That's pretty crazy when you think about it.These teams are presumably evenly matched. Even if you say "well 3-0 means they aren't evenly matched smart guy!" and you say one team has a 40% chance of winning a game* you'd expect 9-10 Game 5s instead of the three we've seen, around 4 G6s, and 1-2 G7s.  

Now of course teams will lose G4 for the same reasons they could win it, but if you are having 21 teams crash out instead of say 13 some of those teams are just giving up.  So let's see who.  This is my takes from the series I remember watching.

2012 Detroit Tigers. Fighters.  Lost G2 and G3 by 2-0 scores (yes a Bumgarner game was in there) and lost G4 in extra innings. 

2007 Rockies. Fighters in this game only. They put up their best (only) effort of the series in G4 losing by 1 and twice scoring late after the Red Sox scored to expand their lead. 

2005 Astros. Fighters. The fightingist swept losers ever! In every game, would lose the series by a combined 6 runs in 4 games. G4 was 0-0 until the Top of the 8th

2004 Cardinals. Quitters. After being unable to take G1 with 9 runs the Cards packed it in for the series putting up little resistance to the Red Sox of Destiny despite winning 105 games themselves. G4 featured three singles and a lone double

1999 Braves. Quitters.  After being game in the series, Yankees took the wind out of their sails in G3 winning in extras on a Chad Curtis homer. Ouch. Smoltz would try bu the offense packed it in for G4. 

1998 Padres. Fighters. They almost won G1 and G3 holding leads late against maybe the best Yankee team of this stretch. Put 10 men on base in G4 but couldn't bring any home. 

1990 A's. Quitters. The dynasty that never was got beat up by Cincy in G1 and G3. G4 was close but only bc Dave Stewart wasn't going to get embarrassed again as he was in G1. He was great. The A's scored one run in the 1st but that was it for hits and after a 2 out walk in the second made 22 consecutive outs to end the game

1989 Giants. Fighters.  It wasn't to be at all but down 8-0 the Giants valiantly cut it to 8-6 going into the 8th.  It just was too little too late. 

 

From here it's stats only. 

1976 Yankees. Fighters. The Reds would win by 5 but that was bc of a 4 run top of the 9th. Yankees scored first and responded to the Reds scoring 3, just couldn't beat the Big Red Machine

 1966 Dodgers. Quitters in general but I guess fighters in G4. The Dodgers hitters hit .142 for the series with 1 homer. Sure pitching but you know my motto - teams don't win, they lose.  Anyway in the 9th with one out the Dodgers got their 4th single of the game and then drew their second walk but they couldn't bring the tying run home.

1963 Yankees. Fighters? Similar to the 1966 Dodgers, questionable effort during the series but in G4 fought, scoring in the 7th and putting a man on in the 7th after that, a man on in the 8th and 9th. 

1954 Indians Quitters. Mainly the pitcher Bob Lemon who didn't have it and the manager Al Lopez who let him hang out there until he lost it. 

1950 Phillies Quitters. The Whiz Kids. went down without a fight to the Yanks only scoring 2 runs in the top of the 9th thanks to a HBP and a flyball error. 

1939 Reds. Fighters. Teams were at 0-0 until the 7th then it went 2-0, 2-3, 2-4, 4-4.  But in extras the Yankees would score 3 and put it away. 

1938 Cubs Quitters. Hitters seemed game. Pitchers let them get a lead early and gave up runs every time the Cubs tried to mount a comeback. 

1932 Cubs Fighters. Down 1-0 after 1 Cubs made it 4-1 Then down 5-4 in the 6th Cubs tied it up. Yankees run roughshod after that to make in 13-6, but these are some prime Yankee teams. Yankes hit .313 / .412 / .521 as a team for the series

1928 Cardinals. Quitters I guess. This might be the most lop-sided series ever, a title usually taken by some 1960s series with dominant pitching.  The Yankees only trailed after 4 in G4 which they'd put away int he 7th. Won every game by at least 3. If the Cards quit it was starting in G1 not for just G4. 

1927 Pirates. Fighters. Murderer's Row would complete the sweep but not before the Pirates scored 2 in the 7th to tie the game at 3 all. Yanks would walk it off in a wild b9. After a walk and single and wild pitch, Pirates would intentially walk Babe Ruth. After Gerhig and Bob Meusel struck out with the bases loaded and no outs the winning run would come in on the second wild pitch of the inning. 

1922 Yankees. Fighters. Lost G1 and G4 by 1, Led G5 late.  Huh you say? G5?  They tied a game because of gate receipts... I mean darkness!

1914 Philadelphia Athletics. Quitters.  After scoring to tie it up in the 5th the Braves would take the lead right back and Philly wouldn't get another hit the rest of the game. 

1907 Tigers. Bad luck Fighters. Another series with a tie and Mordecai Three Finger Brown dealing for all 9.  Tigers put a man on in seven of nine innings. Got men into scoring position in the 1st, 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th but didn't get the hit to drive them in. 

 

*A ridiculously low % in baseball where the worst team in the league against everyone wins like 40% of the time, let alone a league champion.

Monday Quickie - Boone is dumb

I hate Aaron Boone. He's dumb in a modern sense - usually making the analytic choice when such things are figured out in a vacuum and games are managed in the real world. He's also dumb in a traditional sense - usually going for his gut against the traditional move but in a way that doesn't make sense. Sigh.

How was your weekend?

A few Nats are in the AFL.  Hassell is hitting ok so far through a couple weeks. 

uhhh

uhhh

real quiet out there.

Offseason Position Discussion - First Base

The Nats went into 2024 with the hope that either Joey Meneses would blossom or their FA pick-up Joey Gallo would hold down the spot. Neither were being counted on to be long term solutions, more likely trade-bait, but it could have gone in any direction depending on how they performed and what they Nats looked like they needed going forward. When both essentially flunked out of the majors the Nats turned to a organizational depth pick-up Juan Yepez to cover the spot for the rest of the year. He did so admirably hitting well enough that the Nats are at least thinking about where he fits in for next year if they want to look at him some more

Overall the position was one of the Nats' weakest and ripe for improvement.

Presumed Plan : 

A FA signing that can play 1B.  This player may end up at DH instead.

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

Joey G. will be bought out and Joey M, at 32, had his chance.  These aren't real options. 

Juan Yepez is a poor fielding 1B with little history of success at the plate. Still he's interesting in that he's a rare player that can generate power without sacrificing contact. However what appeared to be potentially special in 2021 has regressed to usable.  He's worth throwing out there again but not as a primary source of production.  Andres Chaparro also spent some time there but he right now would be behind Yepez.

The Nats have a 1B they like ok in the minors in Yohandy Morales, but his AA stay last year almost certainly puts him back in that league for another year. At 22 this isn't an issue, but the Nats can't rely on him coming up and making an impact in the next couple years. 

They could move someone over (Kieboom? Wood?) but there has been neither planning or inklings they are interested in such moves. 

All this says they have the need for a FA at these positions.

My Take : 

 Yep. While James Wood's play suggests his long-term home might be at 1B (or DH) it's way too early to give in just yet, especially with a couple strong defenders along with him in the OF. So a FA makes sense and there's a few decent ones out there. 

Pete Alonso (pure power, no glove, still 30) and Christian Walker (good D, solid bat, 34) will get the biggest deals.  Walker might be ideal for the Nats and would be where I'd look first. If you are scared of the age there's really only one other option 31 yo Ryan O'Hearn who hits like Walker but is more of a DH. If the Nats don't want to commit big money long term Carlos Santana (formerly great, still all around good, but 39) and Paul Goldschmidt (formerly great still ok but bad trends and 37) are out there for short term deals.  If the Nats do something like that I'd hope they are putting money in elsewhere. 

 If they don't want to fight for a 1B the OF class is slightly deeper but you'd have to bet on being able to get someone on a decent deal and that they'd want to play 1B and you'd have to get over the "lefties at 1B" thing.  A Michael Conforto type might be the answer.

Still that seems overly complicated.  The Nats need a 1B there is a good 1B fit available. The Nats have $.  Just sign the best option. If it takes a 4 year deal you are probably stretching his usefulness but given he's good on the field and at the plate has pop, has patience seems like something will hold up.  Although if you are worried his K rate did jump up last year.

I will add the caveat that IF they were to go into the Juan Soto sweepstakes and sign him that gives some leeway to 1B being more of a gamble.  Two former Nats that did well here might be amenable to come back Jesse Winker in the "move position" category and Josh Bell in the "had an off year could be cheap" one.  I wouldn't make either of these Plan A or even Plan B to most other Plan As but if Soto is Plan A then sure, gamble.