It's pretty safe to say the Nats won't make the playoffs. The Nats are clearly the 4th best team in their own tough division leaving one WC spot for them to contest. To do that they'd likely have to get something in the neighborhood of 16 games better, a huge jump when you're not starting at 50 wins. Even when you make a concerted effort to improve by leaps and bounds that's too big an ask and the Nats didn't make a concerted effort to improve that much.
But the Nats are better, or at least should be slightly. Offensively for sure. First base, with the addition of Nathaniel Lowe, likely becomes very solid. Paul DeJong a 3B isn't going to wow anyone anymore but could hardly be worse than the Lipscomb/Senzel/Vargas/Tena manning. There are real possibilities of breakouts from Wood and/or Crews and Abrams and Garcia both can also improve. Only Bell replacing the 2/3rds a year of Winker stands to be worse.
Starting pitching is a bit of a mystery with a lot hinging on the development of Gore and the reliability of Williams (both health and results). The other guys are here to be average. There's a lot of ways this can swing as there doesn't seem to be anything reliable here outside of Gore should not be bad. But letting it all even out and land on an average, if unexciting, rotation seems the simplest answer.
Relief pitching probably does take a step back. Neither Poche or the likely roster maker Sims match up to Law and Floro in expectations (and that's not a high bar) and the loss of Harvey also hurts. But unless the pen totally implodes that's unlikely to matter more than the improvement at the plate.
On the basepaths the Nats were very aggressive and that really helped support the team's offense. The team is still young and none of the losses and additions suggest a change in approach so we'll assume the same stategy and results.
Fancy stats wise the Nats were basically the team they showed as, 71-91. If they are slightly better I can see them getting to 74-75 wins. If that isn't because of a fast start that means not only do the Nats not make the playoffs, but they aren't ever really in the picture. That's what most of the pundits are thinking. I would say that's fair.
This is a team that could have been built to be over .500 and have a shot to get into the playoffs if things broke their way. It wasn't. The Nats continued their slow improvement looking toward the kids for any real push forward. With a handful of top prospects that could happen, but I'm going with the safe bet and just expect a few games better in 2025 and the set-up for a make or break off-season between the ownership and the fans.
74-88