Nationals Baseball: HAT eating

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

HAT eating

Last spring I casually mentioned that I thought there was no way Tyler Clippard would be as good in 2011 as 2010.   In fact, I said  "If Clippard is as good this year I'll eat my hat. And by HAT I mean a Ham, Avacado, and Tomato sandwich"

2010 : 3.07 ERA, 41 walks in 91 innings
2011 : 1.83 ERA, 26 walks in 88 innings

Hmmm.  Now I can dig into the fancy stats and pull out the one or two ways he didn't surpass 2010, and I could try to bring up that that big decrease in ERA was due to a completely unsustainable LOB%, but even after all that I'd be just wasting everyone's time.  He certainly was at least a little better than 2010, if not alot, so point Clippard.  

Just so you know I'm not a liar, here is the sandwich.

The lesson learned was that I should have given in on this bet in August, rather than hold out for a September crash, so I could have used ripe tomatoes.  Next time I'll pick an edible item more fall related.  Like a Ham, Apple, and Turnip salad or something.  Beacuse Clippard surely isn't going to be as good next year.  I mean come on!


Donald said...

It's always a pretty safe bet to assume the people who had great years will regress. I mean, if you're wrong, then you're still happy. On the flip side, betting on someone to have a break-out year could end in bitter disappointment. But that's why those bets are more gutsy. So who has a better year in 2012 than 2011? Werth presumably, but it would be hard to be worse. Zimmerman too, but that's just assuming he plays most of the year. Do you see anyone actually making a big leap?

Harper said...

Stat-wise there isn't anyone that stands out (good or bad). I'd say the best bet on the offense is Ramos. I think he could come real close to hitting .300 next season. If he can keep that power where it is it could be a special season. Pitching wise I think Detwiler could be a pleasant surprise if someone goes down early.

blovy8 said...

That's an interesting guess, because Ramos is about the only guy on the team besides Zim who doesn't strike out like crazy. If he got a little lucky on balls in play, got enough time off with Flores around to stay strong, he could hit .300.

I think Burnett will have a much better year. No real reason to think it except how inconsistent relievers' numbers can be.

JD said...

Yay Clippy.
He also sorta happens to be the reason I'm now a Nats fan. I remember his first game in the majors, pitching for the Yankees against the Mets - got the win and hit a double as well. Followed him to the Nats.

Ollie said...

Maybe Espinosa? Doubtful I know given his K rate but if he can bring his average up to the .260s he hit in the minors maybe he hits a few more dingers to get to 25+. One can hope anyways.