Nationals Baseball: Just one game

Friday, April 06, 2012

Just one game

Desmond isn't necessarily a great lead off hitter. LaRoche isn't necessarily a terrible clean-up hitter. Chad Tracy isn't necessarily a lucky bastard who got one of a handful of XBH he'll have all year (though probably...)

The "nay-sayer"s aren't wrong. Neither are those predicting a deep playoff run.

It's only natural that we want to draw some conclusions right away. Finally meaningful data! But it's just as silly to do it with game #1 as it would be to randomly pick game #130 and say that Brian Bixler going 3-4 with a HR proves he should be starting.

I'm never going to tell anyone what to do. Go crazy about it if you want. But I will tell you you're silly for doing what you want. You're silly! (sorry for working so blue)


Donald said...

There's only one conclusion I drew from yesterday's game, which is that relievers matter. I know a lot of folks think they are a dime a dozen and shouldn't be paid for, but it's an awful feeling when you dread turning the game over to your pen, and a great feeling when you think if you can just make it through 7, you can shut it down.

Swoods said...

Is "this team can't friggin hit" an appropriate reflection? Because it totally jibes with my preconceived notion.

DezoPenguin said...

Well, looking at the entire round of games thus far, nobody at all is hitting anything, which suggests that the conclusion might be "#1 starters are often good pitchers." I mean, hey, the Nats' offense was better at run production than most of the league yesterday!

I will draw the following conclusion from the game which I am certain is statistically valid, though: The Nationals' record will be no worse than 1-161 in 2012.

(Donald's right about bullpens, though. It's nice to feel confident that the back end of the staff won't spend the season wasting good efforts from the starters; it's the offense that causes worries.)

I was actually kind of intrigued by the DeRosa-in-LF lineup caused by Morse's absence. It makes me wonder if (presuming DeRosa actually hits something in line with his career performance as opposed to his injury-plagued recent history) when Morse returns the OF might end up Morse-Werth-DeRosa, which maximizes offense at the cost of some defense and prepares Werth for the inevitable (at least for this season) shift to CF when Harper shows up.

JWLumley said...

WHAT?!?! You mean that the Nats won't go 162-0, Strasburg won't have a win all year, Desi won't challenge Teddy Ballgame for .400 and LaRoche won't strand 810 runners on base?

Obviously, it's only one game, but are you really sure that LaRoche won't strand over 800 runners on base? I think I'll withhold judgment on that one.

JWLumley said...

Okay, after thinking about it, I'll concede that LOLaRoche won't strand 800 runners on base, but only because he'll spend at least a couple of weeks on the DL.

blovy8 said...

Swoods, Davey likes offense and DeRosa enough for that to happen, I hope you're right. I don't see Bernadina's defense as worth the difference in offense if DeRosa is healthy. I wonder if Nady gets a few starts against lefthanders too instead of LaRoche. He looked really rusty up there, and DJ paved the way for that switch. There's nothing but hard throwing K guys in the rotation right now, so there's no time better to try it, there ought to be a couple fewer balls in play to worry about.

blovy8 said...

Sorry, I guess I'm reacting to DezoPenguin.

I predict LaRoche will get a hit when there's a pop up by the mound a pitcher runs away from, oh, wait, that already happened.

Anonymous said...

I have seen the future and his name is Lombardozzi

Angels12 said...

Well, there's the first win of the year.......only 87 more to go

Ben said...

Point taken, but now that we are 2-0, we can start targeting what cars we want to overturn in the post-World Series winning riot, right?

(I mean, my Boston friends are already doing their annual "we-re 0-2, this is definitely the worst Sox team EVAH!")

Harper said...

Donald - I think it's both true - they do matter and good ones can be found cheap. But when you want to win is not the time to be sifting through the cheapies. The Nats have moved into that time period.

Swoods - now 3 games in... maybe. If they can't hit at home against the back of a bad Mets rotation then fans can start to look at Morse's return data.

Dezo - I just don't think DeRosa or Nady are that much better than Ankiel to switch everything up. And I think they'll try to get Bryce in CF if at all possible.

Pig.Pen - Now on Monday I'll say yes to all those. I win!

blovy8 - We'll see. I think it might be a big swirling mess with Ankiel, Bernie, DeRosa, Werth and Morse for a while.

Anon - In that future was he wearing a Chiefs uni?

Angels12 - I'm thinking of putting up a counter, if I can figure out how to do it. Just one game, sure, but every win does matter.

Ben - Go ahead and target, easily found irrational thinking is a sign of a good sized fanbase.