Nationals Baseball: Monday Quickie

Monday, November 26, 2012

Monday Quickie

Hey everyone - hope you (and yours, if applicable) had a good holiday break (also if applicable - I assume someone might read this from out of the US)

As a nice post-holiday treat, how about putting some sanity back into Boz's work? Always a palate cleanser.

Boz, this weekend, had a column saying the Nats should stand pat, and basically getting Rizzo to say that was the plan.  All in all that's not a terrible position.  There aren't many impact players available.  The Nats won 98 games last year, with a 4 game cushion on the division, and a 10 game cushion on the Wild Card. Even if they may have gotten a little bit lucky last year, you stand pat and the likely win total is still going to be in the low to mid 90s. That's still "playoffs unless things go wrong" territory.  Just resign LaRoche and let... wait.  He wants to let LaRoche walk? Oh by "standing pat" he literally means standing with their hands in their pocket and whistle a happy tune because everything is going to come up roses all over again. Oh. Hmmm.

Some nitpicks then.

Why would you sign LaRoche, 33, for three or four years or Bourn, about to turn 30, or the erratic Upton for five-plus seasons at astronomical cost when you have multiple players my note - (Tyler Moore, Anthony Rendon, Matt Skole and Brian Goodwin) who may have the same kind of futures? They aren’t all going to fail. 

Ummm, yeah they might. They probably won't but don't act like if they did it would be a shock or anything.  I'd give a let's say 20% chance the combo of those 4 don't have a single mutli-year worthy major league starter among them. That's better odds than a dice roll. Now obviously the 80% is the important part for the Nats but betting on young guys to (1) get to the majors and succeed, and (2) do it on the schedule you need them to; is not a bet championship teams make. It's win now time for the Nats.

(Don't resign LaRoche and) Give Moore the playing time he’s earned in left field.
Tyler Moore had a very fine season for the Nats last year.  He has legit major league power.  He also will turn 26 in January and has a strike out to walk ratio of 3.45 to 1 in the minors (3.2+ in the majors last year) that almost always signifies problems. He certainly hasn't earned anything. Here are his monthly splits from last year

April/May :  .157 / .157 / .157
June :  .421 / .521 / .800
July : .225 / .244 / .425
August : .258 / .343 / .452
Sept : .154 / .214 /. 538

Anyone notice something that stands out? The guy had one hot month and otherwise alternated from an acceptable swing for the fences bench bat and a guy not ready for prime time. Can the Nats win with what ever Moore will be? Unless he totally is a failure, sure. But again - that's not world series contender thinking in my book.

Let Christian Garcia get a shot as a starting pitcher in spring training.
IP and surgery notes

2006 : 53 IP
2007 : 0 IP
2008 : 62.1 IP
2009 : 25.1 IP
2010 : 5.2 IP (last start of any kind)
2011 : 20.1 IP
2012 : 65 IP

And you want to be my latex salesman.

Look the guy may be able to pitch as a starter in the majors, and even though I'd rather see the Nats use him hard as a reliever and burn out his arm like I do with weedeater engines, they have the flexibility to try something different.  But to say "Hey why not have him start for the Nats next year" is just all sorts of short-sighted, and contrary to pretty much everything the Nats have done so far in regards to arms.

Allow flexibility for Rendon or Skole, a 230-pound lefty hitter with 119 RBI in ’12, to push their way into the big leagues like Moore did last year.
AA stats last year

Rendon (23 next yr) :  21 games : .162 / .305 / . 362
Goodwin (22) : 22 games : .223 / .306 / .373
Skole (23) : 0 games : n/a

Moore AA stats two years ago
Moore (24) : 137 games : .270 / .314  / .572

Moore's path to the majors was to hit well for an entire season in AA, move to AAA and hit even better there, be kind of at the age where you have to fish or cut bait, watch as injuries decimated the Nats outfield, get called up. Both Rendon and Goodwin are in no rush to be called up and haven't yet proven they'll be ready.  Skole, who as an old 23 (he'll turn 24 a couple weeks past the July 1 deadline we usually use to signify age that year in the majors) will be getting to that "let's see what you can do" point, hasn't even seen AA pitching yet. Hitting A-ball pitching at 22/23 is less about proving you are a major leaguer and more about showing the Nats they don't have to cut you.

 Let's see what these guys can do in AA before we start pencilling them in the lineup ok?


Positively Half St. said...

I think one of the most important parts of your post was the one saying Boz got Rizzo to say he was sitting on his hands. That is simply not going to happen. I feel certain that signing LaRoche would lead to at least one other significant move, most likely trading Michael Morse (to my chagrin). The 5th member of the rotation won't be Lannan or Garcia, either. Like Mark Zuckerman wrote earlier, there are several tiers of available starters available, and the Nats can choose to spend big or wait until a relative bargain becomes available. Either way, I believe re-signing Edwin Jackson would be the most "stand pat" move they will make for the rotation.


Positively Half St. said...

That is, "the most stand pat move they might make." I don't believe the team will actually resign Jackson, but would before putting Lannan in the 5-spot.


JWLumley said...

Harper, your logic is, well, logical. I do not like the idea of LaRoche for 3-4 years, but I like the idea of Tyler Moore playing every day even less. However, I don't know why everyone is clamoring for more Moore, when Bernadina had a much better year and even when he doesn't hit brings plus defense to the outfield. I know he's had chances in the past, but he seemed to put it together this year, albeit in limited playing time.

Still, I think the Nats need a left handed bat to replace LaRoche and would love to see them go after a high ceiling guy like McCarthy for the 5th starter slot.

bdrube said...

What, is Boz taking payola on the side from the Lerners to publicly advocate that their team NOT spend any of their money? The Nats' window is open NOW and they need to do what they need to do to win within the next three years while their core group of players is under team control. That doesn't mean spending foolishly, but standing pat is a recipe for a major letdown next season.

Harper said...

1/2ST>0 - agree I think Rizzo will either sign LaRoche or someone else worth talking about, and I think the 5th pitcher will be in the Edwin Jackson range (but not him) rather than a cheaper pick-up (which wouldn't make much sense with Lannan being their probably equivalent)

PP - Moore has the allure of the "unknown" people think if you haven't seen someone play then they could be anything - even a superstar (despite all the info on hand that says otherwise). Plus you say "rookie" you think young guy. What if he develops!? Moore is 4 months OLDER than Espinosa. His developing days are pretty much done, maybe another year.

That being said, they've seen so much Roger that they assume last year was a "best year" fluke and he'll be back to being himself next year. They are probably right.

Still I take Roger over Tyler if I'm trying to win next year.

I'd love McCarthy (AL -> NL 4eva!) but I think he'll get a 2-3 yr deal from someone. Nats probably are looking for another 1 yr deal.

Harper said...

bdrube - standing pat isn't terrible - the team is that good. But yeah, now's the time to throw some money around. you should be paying top dollar for marginal improvements to shore up that mid 90s win expectation (decrease your chances at a collapse)

Donald said...

Last year, Rizzo got Edwin Jackson because there was an innings shortage. He must see the same thing this year with EJax leaving. So I assume he's going to fill that position, rather than just rely on Lannan. And I also assume he's going to fill it with someone he considers to be better than Jackson or he'd have at least tendered an offer.

I don't think any of the prospects are going to be ready by the start of 2014 either, so he's probably looking for more than 1 year.

Zimmerman11 said...

Well if this team is going to stop spending and start letting their free agents leave to sign elsewhere, might as well move the team back to Montreal, eh? :)

Anonymous said...

The top priority will be a left handed bat (either LaRoche or another 1B or OF). After that it will be 5th starter on the cheap. The innings will not be as much of a priority this season as the Nats will expect (hope) to get 200+ out of Gio, Zinn, and Stras this season. They will also continue to ride Det as a solid 4/5 again assuming he doesn't regress. If LaRoche gets a deal elsewhere and there is no "Rizzo cheap" no. 5, they will buy some bullpen arms and ride Morse, Moore, Lannon, and Garcia (at least for the start of the season). It is not the worst situation in the world to be in. Go Nats! -Vdub

Anonymous said...

You souless automaton (and I believe I will be copyrighting that for next season)-- you leap beyond what I think was actually written. I believe Boz opines that the Nats will pay whatever LaRoche asks as long as it's a 2 year deal with perhaps a 3rd year option. I think that's a good move up to 15M (hell, not my money). He is correct that there are billions of #5 starters around. All he said was Garcia gets a shot in spring training. Agree I'd rather see him coming in out of the pen but his arm is sick. Until it breaks. Again. Rendon is a can't miss prospect, period. Not a Harper but off the charts high side, but he's 2 years away as is Goodwin (or Taylor). Projecting Skole is indeed silly at the moment. I think what he gleaned out of Rizzo is the Nats firmly believe in the players they have on the roster now and the ones in the pipeline and expect to have to spend serious dollars in 2 to 4 years to keep the best. That's how you build an Atlanta. As I have repeated, regular season sells tickets, puts the butts in the seats and makes the team money. I know everybody says, "I want that ring," but that's not what owning a franchise is about. That's icing. Focusing on a title is a clown goal, bro'.

<*> Chaos....sign LaRoche. Young infielders (and some face of the franchise guy with an arm inconsistency) need that certainty at 1b for another year or so. Pay the man, Shirley.

Anonymous said...

...oh yeah, signing Bourn would be a serious mistake. Upton would be better but there's no way either isn't locked in for 5 years. Neither is worth it.

<*> Chaos

Froggy said...

Harper, as usual Ray Bradbury I-robot logical. I say let Ejax walk, give Garcia the 5th spot until his arm he is free money. Offer LaRoche two with an option, he'll take it. If not, move Morse to first and then go and get the best talent for the most money and then make him fit in the outfield...Hamilton.

I'm going to disagree and say we witnessed the maturation of Bernadina last year. He gets more time in the OF.

Now I gots to go read the Boz article...

blovy8 said...

I think Rizzo is flexible this year, but the guy doesn't really disclose much. If there's another Jackson-type deal out there, he'll take it. I would be really surprised if a team-builder like Rizzo gave up a pick for a free agent, so Bourn is out, of course, he did also NOT roll the dice on a qualifying offer to Jackson. I wonder if the market inflation will make him look less smart about that. Clearly, he thinks there's a better value out there than 13.3 for one year of Jackson, but not a better bargain than that for LaRoche. I know the payroll will be tough in three years, but you can't worry about that yet if he's the guy you want.

Zimmerman11 said...

Give LaRoche a 2 year deal plus a club option/small buyout and front-load it... so we pay more the next two seasons before we gotta pay the youngsters.

Same w/ Bourn. Same w/ all free agents over 30. These backloaded deals always backfire... everyone knows the out years are going to be less productive... and they're always the most expensive. Makes no sense.

BlueLoneWolf said...

If the Nats want to go on the cheap, they'll let LaRoche go (what'd you think of the ESPN Sweetspot article on that, Harper?), then probably move Morse to first and promote from within to the other outfielder spot. Moore doesn't necessarily have to develop physically; maybe a year more with Werth in his ear to get his eye better will be more what he needs.

At any rate, I think that the money needs to be spent on pitching if anywhere. Issue being that's going to be a decent chunk of change. Going by the Yahoo! rankings, the only good pitchers out there are
Sanchez, Greinke, Haren. Haren's back might put him at a deal. Might be worth taking a look at Brandon McCarthy. But the money's definitely going to have to be spent there; I don't feel like Garcia's going to be a quality starter at this point, or likely ever. If you want to go for an outfield option and save some cash for pitching, Cody Ross is out there. I'd say Swisher would be an interesting choice because he's a switch hitter, but I'm not aware of his left-handed numbers at this point and his playoff performance was unbelievabad. That and he's already 32 and ditching LaRoche for Swisher probably isn't worth it. Dunno, the free agent options are iffy overall. Interesting class with a lot of upsides or downsides. If you want to get someone worth actually ADDING to the team overall, it's going to cost big bucks.

blovy8 said...

I think a case can be made for the Nats having everything in place last year except Strasburg and Ramos available. Moore probably is a power-hitting bench player who can handle first and left field occasionally. Bernadina is a fourth outfielder who can run and replace Morse after his last atbat. Tracy is a guy who can spot you on the corners and be a good LH power pinch hitter. Lombo is a versatile guy who doesn't strike out or make mental mistakes and is decent enough to keep the infielders working hard.

Look at the left handed players not re-signed, LaRoche, Burnett and Gonzalez - they're not young, and have no real upside left. There's leverage to replace them with similar talent or players with some upside left, but there's no shame in getting them back for a bit too much either. That's where the opportunity to improve lies, the overall depth. Because the players Boz cites aren't impact guys yet, but they don't need to be. If things go right, no one will care who the 5th starter was, except in that he might become a good long reliever.

blovy8 said...

Ok, they don't have a better fifth starter than Lannan. But he actually doesn't stink, and there's three months to sign someone better.

K.C. said...

"Let's see what these guys can do in AA before we start pencilling them in the lineup ok? "

Minor League stats possess no value and don't have anything to do with future Major League success. That's baseball 101.

bsimon24 said...

Harper, we want to hear your reaction/analysis to this Grantland article!

A Fly Moses said...

A note on longer contracts for older players: the decline years are the most expensive because that's better for the team. I guarantee you players would rather get that money now. This is a slightly different question from whether Bourne (or Upton) is worth it (I think people here are a little too high on LaRoche's value and a little low on Bourne/Upton's, but who knows), but I can't help but get a little fired up when I see people arguing for higher AAV/fewer years but with comparable total values.

Paying Bourne $20 mil in year 5 won't inhibit the team's spending if it has saved that $20 mil over the course of the previous four years. This is not only because of the obvious time-value-of-money implications but also (though it's similar) because the cost of free agents goes up every year, so that $20 mil in 2017 isn't going to look quite as big as it does now.

I would also note, FWIW, that giving LaRoche two years plus an option is less team-friendly than just giving him three (I guess that may have been the point in these comments--he'd be more likely to accept it THAN a straight three year deal, but that didn't seem to be what people were meaning).

Anyways, sorry for the math lesson. I'll show myself out.

Donald said...

Harper -- what's your projection for Bryce Harper next year? If he progresses and puts up numbers like Mike Trout did this year, how much of an impact will that have on the team? Will that alone make up for the possible loss of LaRoche?

Harper said...

Donald - I don't know if he assumes it. Last year he could have seen ZNN, Gio and 160 innings of Stras as the only sure things. Now he probably sees ZNN, Gio, Stras, and Detwiler as sure things. I still think he signs a pitcher but only because its the area where you can obviously improve (from Lannan/Maya/5th whoever)

Z11 - At least play a home stand there - like the Expos in Puerto Rico!

VDub - Agreed Top Priority is figuring out how the LaRoche/Morse situations resolve. pitching is there but a secondary concern thanks to Detwiler and healthy Strasburg

Chaos - well isn't "pay LaRocher less than market value" as good as "let him walk"? You'd sign almost anyone if you had a place and they came at value. LaRoche can get more so telling them to sign him for essentially 2 years is as good as telling them to let him go IMO.

Garcia hasn't pitched more than 70 IP in 7 seasons. Even if he did well in ST I wouldn't want him in the rotation.

I consider Rendon's chance at success very high too... if he's healthy.

I think I like Bourn better than most.

Froggy - I think other than that Hamilton thing you could see exactly what you said happen this offseason.

blovy8 - What are you building a team for at this point? 2017 when everyone is gone? I know, I know... constant success and let it ride, but the Nats aren't getting high draft picks anymore. Let them go.

Z11 - If I'm LaRoche I don't take that deal. There's a guaranteed 3 out there. Bourn too. Looks like your Nats are standing pat.

BLW - that's the curse of having a good team. You can't expect to get better with good deals for mid-range players anymore. It's going to cost $ and years. Are the Nats willing to do that? Is the talent out there worth that?

blovy8 - I'd agree they did have the pieces in place last year, they won 98 games, right? But lose LaRoche & Burnett and 2 pieces are gone. Can they be replaced? Sure. But they'd have to be and I think the internal replacements right now arent' that dependable.

KC - Everyone in baseball thinks minor league stats matter from the most scouty of scouts to the most statty of stat guys. If not, there'd be no minor leagues just extended Spring Training camps. You'd see guys get called up all the time for no reason.

I think what you're getting at is "we don't know how they'll perform in the majors until they play in the majors" which is true, but we can make a pretty good guess based on minor league stats. I don't know of anyone who would tell you otherwise.

bsimon24 - I think someone told Keri he had to have groups like Simmons does because that read very awkwardly! Is that what you mean?

AFM - I think we're pretty focused on what's in front of us. Fans get pretty easily mislead by teams saying "we can't afford this now" because they see the payroll as it is, not the total savings/spendings over a broader period. Teams use this to their advantage to not spend.

On LaRoche I think they are giving that 3rd year option to the team.

Donald - Bryce? I guess I don't see the superstar year just yet but I'd be surprised if he had long lapses in power again, and such we'll also see more teams pitching around him. .275 / .360 / .510? Like .275-.280 with ~35 homers? It won't make up for LaRoche vs a nobody but it'll take away a big chuck of LaRoche vs a decent replacement.

blovy8 said...

Harper, I wasn't agreeing with the standing pat as it is now, more like DJ's idea of replicating last year's club by signing LaRoche instead of one of the top CF. I think part Boz's equation would be thinking Bernadina has turned a corner in his approach too. If you still limit his exposure to tough righties, Moore has a shot at similar rate stats I was thinking that if you don't have Moore, you still need someone like him on the bench and it's not all that easy to do unless you overpay on that as well. They will certainly have to overpay for LaRoche, just as they actually did in the last contract - but have less onerous adjustments to make than signing Bourn and losing their 1st rounder. It seems pretty certain they will want a left handed hitter, so unless they trade Morse or have significant injuries again, his status won't be any different than it was in October. Now as to his value to another club, I can't say, because he's cost controlled and has 25 HR power, so a club may give you something you like better, and you go ahead and do that. But he's probably only a piece in a larger deal, and that shifts the needs around again.

K.C. said...

"Everyone in baseball thinks minor league stats matter from the most scouty of scouts to the most statty of stat guys. If not, there'd be no minor leagues just extended Spring Training camps. You'd see guys get called up all the time for no reason. "

This is categorically wrong. Your knowledge of this game is almost non-existent.

Harper said...

blovy8 - ok I see what you're going for now. the draft pick really isn't the focus here.

KC - It's hard to argue this point with you because I don't even know where you are coming from. There may be times when you say "I don't care he has a 5.50 ERA or a .200 average because I like that he's doing X" but at some point before reaching the majors you do have to show you can turned those learned skills into production. Look at the guys the Nats rookies / call ups = Lombo, Moore, Corey Brown, Eury Perez. All among the best hitters this year in the Nats upper farm system. Check out who moves up from farm team to farm team. You don't see that guy batting .200 or having a 5.50 ERA making that next step up. It's like this every year.

Then there are the projection systems that are able to use minor league stats with a decent level of accuracy to predict how guys will do in the majors. I didn't make these up. They exist.

So I don't even know what you are saying here.

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