Monday, April 01, 2013


Baseball is back today! Ok it was back last night and I did watch some of the game, but the Amazing Race started late and then Superman was on HBO and I'd never seen it with even mild bad words (they said "ass"!)... anyway, it's a long season. I'm not going to watch every pitch of every game, and certainly not of one like Rangers vs Astros, so I'm not going to force myself to do it just because it's "opening night".   There's plenty of baseball I will watch today, and tomorrow, and every day until November.

I've updated the national media prediction page.  The current tallies (which includes ESPN's ridiculous 43 staff predictions); 26 of 61 picks to win the World Series, 53 of 58 picks to win the NL East, and no playoff misses. To put that in percentage form, that's : 
  • 100% chance of being in the playoffs
  • 91% chance of winning the NL East
  • 43% chance of winning it all
Pretty good.

Our own crowd sourced record comes in at 97-65, and a sweep of division titles. If anyone who didn't guess on Friday wants to add their guess in the comments below, go right ahead and I'll update the number at COB.

For those looking for something more statsy - Natsradamus projects the Nats to have 98 wins.

April Prediction:
It's a pretty easy month for the Nats. They play 16 of 27 games at home and they only have one road swing expected to be tough (this weekend vs the Reds) until the very end of the month. They also have a couple of off days sitting in the middle of the month. The end could be an issue as they'll have played 10 in a row before rolling into Atlanta, but it's early in the year and they haven't done any West Coast travels so I expect they'll be fine.

I have them sweeping the Marlins, then losing 2 of 3 in Cincy (can't win every series).  They go on the take the White Sox / Braves homestand and the Marlins / Mets away run with 4-2 sets each. A 4-3 record at home vs the supposed cream of the NL (Cards and Reds), then a split of the games in ATL to end the month.  All in all that's a 17-10 record, which is right on pace for a mid 90s season given this is a home heavy month.

Other Notes:

Why do the Reds play at 4PM today?  I get that the whole "Reds first" thing is blown by the Opening Night game (not to mention stupid international games when applicable), but at the very least they should open Opening Day at Cincy at say... noon or something, right?

I also really wish SF @ LA was a 10:00 ET start instead of having SEA v OAK and STL v ARI to choose from to watch late at night, but I can't blame any team for having a day game on Opening Day. 

Read Boswell today, not because it's his best work or anything, but because Opening Day is made for Boswell.

Any questions?  Natsoftheroundtable is the email address. Gmail address to be specific.

I am on twitter. harpergordek for those of you that are into that sort of thing.

Let's get this train going. Strasburg. I'm counting on an Opening Day Perfect Game. Don't let me down.


cass said...

Opening Day Perfect Game! Yes! If it doesn't happen, I'm blaming you!

How about a no-hitter instead, though? We need to include a few walks for Stanton.

I'll be at the game. Took off the whole day since I want to get there in time to see the silly award ceremonies... speaking of which, I better be heading into town.

Wally said...

The Nats hype machine is truly in overdrive. Seems amazing that Natinals was just a few years ago.

I say that they win 90-95 games, which feels like a disappointment given all this hype. Lose the NL East to the Braves, but make it to the NLCS so the season feels like progress and a success by the end. Phils finish under .500, and Mets take 3rd.

RZim has his best year, offensively at least, finishes top 3 for MVP. Span and Haren are ok, not great, Det pitches to 3+ WAR, and Bryce hits 30 HRs while missing time on the DL due to something relatively minor.

Thanks God its April.

BlueLoneWolf said...

Strasburg opening day line guestimation:

6 1/3 IP, 4H, 2ER, 10K's (Four looking), 1-3 2B.

Too bad I'm in studio and not in front of a television. Anyone know a good online radio source for some Nats streaming?

Donald said...

With all the denigration of the Marlins and hype of the Nats, it seems destined for us to get blown out today in a rout. The lowly Marlins batting around in the third and knocking Straburg out of the game that inning after throwing 90 pitches, 50 for strikes. Nolasco pitches 7 innings of 1 run ball and the Fish win 9-2. Just sayin'...

Harper said...

cass - hot dog and beer it for me.

Wally - totally. I think the Nationals would be getting LESS hype if they somehow won it all last year. I think we always want to be in on the next big thing and that's what the Nats are right now.

I like Zimm too.... if he can stay healthy.

BLW - is your only choice and it'll cost you ($20 bucks for the year for just audio)

I guess there may be someone out there streaming it but I don't know of any.

Donald - You're crazy! Look at the Astros! They lost just like... huh? Oh they won? Shoot. It's a Rob Brantly break-out party!

Donald said...

Thankfully, my prediction did not come to pass. Great to have the first game in the win column. Nice way to start the season.

DezoPenguin said...

Seven shutout innings on eighty pitches. I'll take that. ^_^ And Harper with 2 HRs and one of the weirder outfield assists of all time. A little wildness from Clip, but Soriano at least did what we're paying him for.

Zimmerman11 said...

19 consecutive batters retired is not too shabby for stras... n harper's two dingers have certainly ratcheted up my expectations for the kid :-)

Carl said...

Re the Reds at 4 PM. I'd have to assume that's for TV's benefit. Not sure if they were on ESPN, but they were playing the Angels, so a 4 PM start here makes for 1 PM out west.

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