Nationals Baseball: Monday Quickie - death by a thousand cuts

Monday, August 19, 2013

Monday Quickie - death by a thousand cuts

Here's a nice little way to look at the Nats Braves series

Nats 2-run wins :  2
Nats 1-run wins : 2
Braves 1-run wins : 6
Braves 2- run wins : 2
Braves 3-run wins : 2
Braves 3+ run wins : 2 (7 and 9 run Brave wins, if you must know)

These teams have played some close baseball games but the Nats have found themselves on the mat when the bell rang over and over again.

Is it luck? I suppose but throw RS and RA into the Pythag expectation theorem and the Nats were expected to win... 4 to 5 games out of the 16. They've won 4.

The take away is more, once again, a failure of offense. The average O scores 4 runs a game. The Nats have scored four or more runs vs the Braves all of two times. Here's the distribution

0 : 1
1 : 5
2 : 4
3 :  4
4+ : 2

That's terrible.

Anyway the Nats play one, count 'em, one decent team from now until the next Braves series on the 16th of September and it's the Royals. Again let's forget about the WC right now and concentrate on playing some good baseball. Start with a winning road trip (4@CHC, 3@KC so let's shoot for 4-3) then we'll look up again.


Donald said...

Despite the loses, it was great to see Drew Storen come back and pitch some lights out baseball. It's not much, but it helps.

Nick said...

ugh, this team needs an identity... somebody light a fire- davey looks asleep, how many men left on base? you saw girardi's reaction to brian o'nora last night... did davey come out of the dugout when stras got tossed? I get a headache just typing about this stuff

Anonymous said...

Hey Gang-Zendo
Agreed Nick and Donald. Per our identity-seems like a while since we've seen "good" offense or overall consistent play. Last year, wasn't our final month our only non-winning one?Also, seems that this team has struggled to score on a consistent basis for several years (minus an extended period last year starting....when Harper arrived?)And i'm not saying that it was only with longballs, but in this pitching favorable environment, it seems like very few teams will be able to rely solely on Earl Weaver style ball.
Also-just a general impression-but it seems like Desi has gotten impatient again at the plate, particularly when someone is aboard.I tried to figure out how to research it on Fangraphs/Baseball Reference but i'm not sophisticated enough.(Man on 2nd or 3rd, 2 outs).Any one have any data?
Finally-was it just me or did Werths' comments on Cholly ("a players manager who made you earn his respect")come across as mebbe a mild criticism (or veiled) of how Davey has operated this year?
Thanks all

DezoPenguin said...

Yeah, it was nice to see Storen do well; getting him back as a reliable arm would be a major boost to the pen. Other things I'd like to see down the stretch include ALR getting hot (to give him some offseason trade value) and Harper working out whatever's going on with him, be it injury or just the need of someone as young as he is to make some adjustments.

(Meanwhile, I'm just praying that the ghost of Mark Wohlers hasn't come and possessed Strasburg. Seven balls and three WPs in a row scares the heck out of me.)

Dr Trea (formerly #werthquake) said...

4-3? Anything less than 5-2 isn't gonna cut it IMO

Anonymous said...

Driven back by tonights game...Harper (et al)-given JZimms' low strikeouts and what appears to be a relatively flat fastball (however fast)...are we seeing a regression back to a pure #3 pitcher? Were we oversold on him?
Ever since you noted his low babip, high fip and low s.o. totals....i'm starting to wonder just how good he is.(Certainly not our "ace"-then again, Haren has pitched to "old rate" numbers in the 2nd half like JZimm did in the first.

Anonymous said...

I think the Nats will be lucky to win 3 of the games on this road trip. I'm thinking 3-4 at best, but maybe even 2-5. Losing 8-0 with one of your better starters today. I think you guys are to the point where you might be wanting to look ahead to next year.

Chas R said...

Good grief, how embarrassing; lost 11-1 to the lowly stripped down Cubs. What the heck happened to ZNN??? The Abad and Krol both also give up HRs too??? I just continue to scratch my head. I stopped watching after the 4th inning, it was just too painful. Please make it stop!

Chas R said...

Oh, and now the latest casualty of this dysfunctional season is the Shark. Too bad, we had some fun with him last year.

Unknown said...

Is this what our season has come to that on the NAT's post game all we talk about is how good the Cub's pitcher was. I mean seriously it is almost like "Ray" doesn't even want to waste time talking about how horrible we are. There are a lot of people who may disagree with my next statement but at what point is enough. There is still a lot of baseball left as far as fans going to see them play. Rizzo said the team needed a spark so he fired the batting coach, that hasn't worked. I think it is time Davey realized he doesn't have the passion this season and just go ahead and walk away. Then maybe we as fans can get what we deserve,a team with a little fire, this is so disgraceful to watch

Froggy said...

First game of the season I didn't completely watch from beginning to end. Caught up on Breaking Bad after 4 innings instead.


WiredHK said...

I'll gladly watch Rex Grossman over this version of the Nats. That's how bad things are now. :(

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