Quick. How many games did Difo start at 2nd base? 40? 60? Try 84. That in itself should tell you what a mess the position was in 2018. Murphy ended up being out longer than anticipated. Kedrick and Difo started a 60/40 share, but when Rendon went out Difo had to slide to 3rd and Kendrick started playing every day. Rendon came back and it went back to 60/40, but soon after Kendrick went out.
At this point things didn't look that bleak. Kendrick had hit as he was expected to, and Difo, after a slow start, hit quite well in May. It looked like the Nats might actually cover these injuries just fine. But Murphy's recovery remained slow and given more time Difo was exposed as the below average bat he is. June brought reality crashing down at second as Murphy returned but was kept from playing 2nd forcing Difo to continue starting. When Murphy finally moved back in to a defensive role pushing Difo's nonexistent bat to the bench it took another week before he'd hit any better (which he needs to given his suspect fielding)
The Nats finally got the second base play they expected for probably 120+ games from early July to mid August. Murphy would hit .364 / .409 / .551 over those 34 games. But it wasn't enough. The Nats remained out of contention and figuring Murphy was going to test free agency after the year, the Nats dealt him to the Chicago Cubs. Difo would reclaim the starting role for the rest of the year (Adrian Sanchez would spot start) and neither would surprise
The end result is a 2nd base position that was at the level it was in previous years only for 30 or so games. It had another 50 or so run of decent play to begin the year, but the remaining 80 it was an offensive hole. On the flip side, defensively it might have been the best it has been in a long while, as Difo is a plus defender at 2B.
My OOB plan was trading for Dozier, which would have worked out better than Difo (assuming everything stayed the same) but only slightly as Dozier had an off year at the plate.
Presumed Plan : If the season re-started tomorrow Kendrick would start at 2B and Difo would back him up. It is possible though they could pick up a FA 2B and let Kendrick take on a supersub role filling in as needed around the diamond. The Nats do have MI depth in the minors with arguably their two top offensive prospects, Carter Keiboom and Luis Garcia, potential 2nd base replacements* But it's unlikely either will see the majors before September, if then.
Reasoning on Presumed Plan : Presumably the Nats understand that the Kendrick/Difo is a precarious issue. We are not sure how Kendrick will recover from his injury, and assuming a reasonable time frame on injury recovery burned the Nationals just last year at this very position. If he is not recovered in time to start the year Difo has shown repeatedly he is not an every day player. However, this is a solution and the Nats have other issues (Catcher, Starting Pitcher, bullpen) arguably higher up on the list. So it's more likely they sit and wait on this then try to push it early.
They can do that because 2B is loaded with decent FAs Asdrubal, Dozier, Marwin, Lowrie, Josh Harrison (possibly), Kinsler, Walker, Descalso, LeMahieu (probably). Something is going to shake out of that bunch cheaper than they deserve and the Nats can wait and then pounce on that for a one or two year team favorable deal.
There's no reason to do anything longer than 1-2 years because one of those two, Kieboom or Garcia, if not both, will probably be ready for a major league trial in 2020 or 2021. Neither are Soto/Robles level hitters but both have held their own at levels above their age making them rise up the prospect lists. Even if they don't develop into impact players - average position players for pre-arbitration salaries give the team a lot of flexibility to fix issues down the road (1B, SP, the ever present bullpen issue). But that's long term. For 2019 don't expect either. Kieboom was merely holding his own in AA. He'd have to surprise to be seen earlier than September. Garcia is year behind him.
Problems with Presumed Plan : If they go with Kendrick/Difo the problems are obvious. Kendrick's injury might take more time to recover from or take more out of him as a player and Difo can't be expected to do more than spell someone else. It would be an ok plan if everything else on the team is "solved" but if not there's too much potential to learn the same lesson the baseball gods tried to teach the Nats last year.
Assuming they sign someone, anytime you wait to make a decision you risk losing the best options and taking something less than optimal. Lowrie (good bat, good glove), AsCab (good power, meh glove) and LeMahieu (good average, great glove) will probably go first leaving the Nats with the also-rans, where you are choosing one skill or another. Do you want defense? Choose the aging but spry Kinsler. Want pure power? Choose Dozier. Want some patience? Go with Descalso. All around decency? Marwin. Cheap bounce back potential? Harrison or Walker. You make a compromise and you hope 2019 isn't the year where the remaining skill goes.
My take : Given how cheap it will be to get a Kinsler, Dozier, Descalso, etc. I say there's no harm in moving in that direction. It will cost you the same as you paid for Stephen Drew to back-up a few years ago and you'll get more out of it. If the contracts go how I think they will, it'd be almost silly not to. Marwin is probably the most sensible, as he can play multiple positions, but that will probably price him into a starting role somewhere. There isn't really a need to sit and wait on Howie's recovery either. If this guy you sign doesn't start then he'll back up. Whatever. It's a good move anyway you slice it. Assuming Nats are priced out of Lowrie/LeMahieu and AsCab/Marwin go early, I guess I prefer Dozier - who is one year removed from being a force at the plate and acceptable on the field. He's the most likely to get you a Murphy like surprise.
Out of the box suggestion :
Trade for Merrifield and Sal Perez. It will take a lot (say bye to Robles and Kieboom at least) so it assumes a Bryce re-sign but Merrifield has quietly become a star at 2B and is just entering arbitration. Sal Perez is a solid beloved catcher who might be overpaid a little but consider it a package deal and it's still a bargain. You solve 2B and C for a few years without paying a ton of money which allows you to really dig into those pitching issues.
*though they have said no to Keiboom at 2nd. My take is that they are already feeling Keiboom/
14 comments:
In the footnote, you mentioned Sanchez as a potential future keystone, along with Kieboom. Did you mean Garcia, or is Sanchez correct?
Well, there are downsides to everything. Lowrie and Kinsler are already past the age where 2B's fall off cliffs in production historically. ACab is butting up against it, but he's been here before and would seem to be a decent fall back for a few mil since they have guys in the pipeline. I like Marwin the best because he can plug so many holes, and is a switch hitter, but I agree that his contract demands will price the Nats out of it in all likelihood. Will Descalso's recent power translate to sea level? I would save the position prospects for controllable pitching, it just doesn't look good in the minors. If they don't re-sign Harper, they probably should look to add another LH hitting player who isn't dependent on Zim's health.
GCX: Garcia. I knew I was going to do that. For some reason Garcia's name isn't sticking with me yet.
blovy8 - I like Descalso the least. He completely crashed in the 2nd half and history has him at best as a below average hitter. (though the "power" looks real - he's hitting a lot more balls in the air and hitting them harder - though if 15 is the best he can do...)
Trading for controllable pitching makes the most sense. But who? The two best who may be available (Snell, Taillon) are controlled through 2022 which means they'd cost everyone. I imagine Giants will let Bumgarner tell them what he wants. Mike Minor is intriguing. Otherwise you are gambling on Estrada or Sanchez from TB..
In the case of a Gioesque starter, I don't think we will know who is available until/unless Rizzo trades for them. Even in Gio's case, you had his unbelievable health and the friendly extension make it luckier. Guys coming off huge years like Snell would be WAY too expensive in prospects. Same thing with Tallion, I think he's just hitting arbitration and the Pirates don't really stink that much. No one should trade guys like that unless they get back better prospects than the Nats have. The Nats don't have the depth or market to gut their system in that kind of go-for-it move. That would go against the compete every year idea, unless the Rays or Pirates are overrating the Nats system.
The guy I was thinking of is Clevinger, the Indians could use Robles.
The Tigers could trade Fulmer? I'm not sold on that guy yet, but he's controllable and maybe #2ish.
Best case scenario for me is still to move on from Harper, use that dough for pitching, go defense first at catcher, spend what it takes for Marwin. Throw a crazy number at Rendon. Stay under the luxury level this season.
Man, Grandal looks like a butcher behind the plate! I though he would cost too much for the Nats, but he could screw up his big payday if he keeps this up. Small sample aside, if he comes cheap enough, I still think he's a good option. I guess we'll have a few weeks to think about it.
Trading for young, controllable pitching shouldn't be that hard in theory - based on how we landed Gio back in 2011. Peacock, Cole, and Norris ranked 3rd, 4th, and 9th, respectively in our system at the time. Seems more like volume than actual quality to me, but I can't remember how those bums ranked on the Top 100 list at that time.
Hey PBN
Your memory is fading. Tom Milone was also part of the trade. But you are correct. They were all bums although Peacock had a couple of good seasons in Houston.
Note they all came back except Peacock.
Ole PBN
Cole was a fringy Top 100, Norris was a 50-100 guy but trending down, Peacock was out of Top 100 trending into it. Milone was nothing.
People get too excited about Top 100 guys. If they aren't super young guys climbing they are mostly guys that often rate out as "should be an ok starter for a few years" somewhere around 30-50 is the transition.
Well I left Milone out because he was filler (which we currently have plenty of). Was more concerned with where the meat of the prospects we gave up in order to land Gio graded out at the time of the 2011 deal. My suspicions seem correct, it really didn’t cost that much, just quantity over quality. My question remains: could we put together a similar package to land a young, solid, controllable SP for next season? Perhaps Beane would bite?
PBN
Don't think that is going to work with the A's. When we did the trade for Gio, Oakland was about to lose all its stars to free agency so Beane sold off Gio help to rebuild the farm system and get controllable players. Now he has a young team with players under control for awhile so he has no reason to dump anyone to us.
Need to look at another team.
Deals can definitely be made with quantity rather than quality prospects, but finding the right partner is important. The Giants should be such a team (thin farm, bad big league team relative to division), but we don't know what the new GM will be instructed to do. The DBacks maybe, although most of their roster is arb-eligible and on the cheap-ish end still. Team dysfunction helps too, in finding a partner. Jeter was forced to sell low and take mostly only decent prospects for Yelich and Ozuna because the team had no leverage.
As ssln points out, the A's are ascending and have no reason to sell off parts like they did with Gio.
Offer Danny Espinosa his old job back. At least invite him to spring training. We can get him cheap....in the minors now, in fact. We're not going to find another Daniel Murphy type player for that spot. Forget about trying to turn second base into an offensive juggernaut. Somebody has to be the third out. Put the best defender out there and let him save a couple of runs a game. He may prefer to be a shortstop, but Espy is still the best defensive second baseman I've ever seen (and I'm 50+). I've seen Joe Morgan, Ryne Sandberg, Bobby Richardson, and Paul Molitor, and Danny's better than all of them....until he picks up a bat.
Manny Trillo though? Give me Manny Trillo.
Saying Espi is a better defender than HOF hitters... well yeah, but those are HOF bats.
Difo is pretty obviously > Espinosa. Defensively they are much the same. Offensively, Difo hovers around replacement level, while Espi is a sucking chest wound.
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