Nationals Baseball: What if the Phillies got what they wanted?

Wednesday, January 16, 2019

What if the Phillies got what they wanted?

Yesterday a rumor surfaced (from the less than reliable Bob Nightengale) that the Phillies had a plan to put that stupid money to work. Sign Bryce, then sign Kuechel and Kimbrel. Would that make them a super team? Would it even put them over the Nats... or Braves... or Me - ok yes easily over Mets.

As we discussed the Phillies were a sneakily mediocre team last year. Thanks to a strong start and some luck the Phillies maintained the sense of a team ready to make the next step. As late as the end of August they were relevant,sitting at 72-62 (though probably more of a 69-65 squad in talent - they had some luck) But in reality the offense was middling and the pitching staff slowly eroded as the season went on.  when the wheels came off in September and they plummeted to their below .500 finish. They made some minimal changes, trading for As Cab and Ramos but it wasn't enough to make a difference.

Could even a drastic overhaul be enough to turn the tide in 2019?

They've already traded for Jean Segura , signed McCutchen, and inked David Robertson. These are all improvements but mild ones. Segura is the biggest plus, as his above average bat and solid D replaces a position of true weakness for the Phillies with a plus. That could be a 2 game swing. McCutchen is far more average in what he brings but what he importantly does is allow the Phillies to move Hoskins to 1B, set a guy who isn't terrible in the corner, and cycle through fewer of their AAAA talent OFs. Those guys, Williams, Altherr, Herrera, all these guys right now look like decent 3/4s bats with a little issue in the field. That's fine to have as one guy. It's a mess to have as all your guys, which it pretty much was last year (with "I'm a better bat than that but really a first baseman" Hoskins pitching in). It will help but in a "we brought in this middling innings eater 3rd starter" sort of way.  Robertson helps strengthen the pen, giving it a depth that it never had last year as it basically seemed to always be relying on 1-2 guys, whoever that may have been. Robertson also helps out Kapler who didn't seem to handle the pen great last year and probably needs that "traditional closer" to anchor his decisions.

I see improvement. I see 4 maybe 5 games here. But that takes a Phillies squad out of the playoffs and makes them less out of the playoffs. What would these three do?

Bryce - Bryce would immediately replace a "hopefully average" bat with a "at worst above average" one. Defensively he was bad last year, but he probably pushes out the almost as bad Nick Williams. And if you take the 3 year look at it - as you probably should - it's likely he'd be an improvement over Williams.  Nothing mindblowing mind you but Bryce is probably meh in the corner and Nick is probably worse than that. So right off the bat you have a 2-3 win boost. Then there's the side benefit of now only having the best Phillies OF prospect playing. Is it a reborn Herrera - who's probably the best fielder, manning CF? An Altherr proving 2017 was the real him - maybe in a corner with Cutch over to CF? Either way the Phillies don't have to stick with someone not giving them nothing like they do now.  It's a 3-4 plus move easy. And note we're basically taking Bryce as a 130 OPS+ bat here. Consider a better bat and well sky's the limit.

Keuchel is a solid pitcher. He's not entirely reliable (145 & 168 IP in 2017 and 2016) but he's decent and the season he put up last year is about right. He's better than that middling 3rd. He's a solid #2 for nearly any team.  Pitching signings are particularly effective because you aren't knocking out one guy, but the worst of 5. In comes Keuchel out goes one of not Arrieta or Nola. It's a win and a half at least. Plus it gives the Phillies a lefty arm they don't have now.  It's a little harder finding that right pitcher to knock out but Eflin will likely get a chance to stick and there's a good chance legit prospect Sixto Sanchez could see the rotation for good toward the end of the year, so Pivetta/Velasquez will be pushed to prove they should stay.

Kimbrel will make Kapler's job even easier. The Phillies will have that set-up closer (and likely 7-8-9 assuming Seranthony's 2018 wasn't a fluke) and give Kapler the freedom to mess up in less crucial moments. Some managers thrive when trying to optimize pitching. I don't think Kapler is one of those guys. Give another win here.

So I have the Phillies 4.5-5.5 wins better at a minimum if these guys come in and are healthy. Now the 85 win-ish Phillies are 90-91 win team. That's right up there with the Braves and Nats. And again - if Bryce breaks out... forget it. So there's potential for this team to cruise to an East title.


I think looking at the above - if the Phillies are serious about competing this year they need Bryce (or Machado) and Keuchel (or a similar starter) The team was starting at a floor lower than you'd think and are facing two real threat to win 90+ games in the Nats and Braves. That's the minimum.   Add more, like a Kimbrel and they may nudge into favorite status. But do less than that and the Phillies remain on the outside, hoping for busts and breakouts to go their way.

Ok - now to check and make sure no one has signed... Nope ok post!

31 comments:

G Cracka X said...

Really hope Harper doesn't sign with the Phillies. I can't think of one team I would prefer less that he goes to. Even the Mets or Braves would be better!

sirc said...

Philly's defense was worse than just bad shortstop and bad left fielder. It was pretty universally bad. That's another reason why Manny makes so much more sense for them than Bryce. Manny is an excellent 3b with good offensive numbers while Franco is neither of those things.

They were a terrible defensive team and a terrible offensive team for most of the year in 2018. Bryce helps one of those things. Manny helps them a lot more. I'm hoping that the Bryce pursuit is more about pressuring Manny than about real interest, because like the previous poster said I really do not want Bryce in Philly. So much so that I'm rooting for them to sign Manny, who will make them more of a threat to the Nats.

Harper said...

sirc - what you say isn't wrong. I'm just highlighting that bringing in Harper a meh and maybe bad fielder - doesn't hurt the Phillies like it might other teams. If he's bad - they've been bad. You can still pretty much ignore fielding when looking at how'd they'd improve at his position.

Jimmy said...

They've improved dramatically defensively up the middle all ready, question is does Odubel have the glove to be above average in CF? because even if so they will have a below average defense at the outfield and at third. But even below average would be a dramatic improvement from last year. Fangraphs has them at 82 wins right now add those other pieces I think only gets the 6-7 win improvement, their starting pitching was already solid and Kimbrel isn't what he used to be. But if they added those pieces they would be a very complete team with a very high floor.

Anonymous said...

I still believe the Phillies are bluffing.

They’ve been talking a great game for what feels like forever, but I have yet to see them put their dick on the table in the form of a big concrete offer.

Anonymous said...

Why not look at the Mets? Per Fangraphs, they are the second best in the division at the moment. They made some significant improvements and had the best ERA in MLB over the second half.

sirc said...

@anon

The Mets had the 8th best ERA in MLB post all star break. Second in the NL East division.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/pitching/split/182

Like the Nats, any Mets pitching analysis for 2019 comes with serious injury considerations. The Mets have more significant injury concerns in their rotation while the Nats have more significant injury concerns in the bullpen.

But let's say all of each team's projected pitchers stay 100% healthy, is there a significant advantage to either team? I'd argue that it's a statistical wash, or near enough that there would be little difference.

The lineups? No comparison, again assuming 100% health, minus Cespedes who isn't supposed to play in 2019. Just no comparison. Position by position. Maybe catcher, but that's a maybe.

I believe that the Mets would trade their guy to the Nats for the Nats' guy straight up with little hesitation across the board.

Josh Higham said...

ChiSox only offered Machado 175/7, per Olney. That is bonkers if true.

Harper said...

Anon - Mets may factor into it. I probably sold them short. That's the problem with on the fly off-season talk. More than any team though - they ride a razor's edge. With SP health they are scary. With one guy down (or God forbid two) they have no depth and the offense isn't able to carry this team.

ssln said...

Harper

You have this all wrong. Bryce is going to hit 75 homers with 150RBI and be a gold glove right fielder to justify the stupid money the Phils are going to pay him. They will probably sign Machado on the cheap for like 275M and he is going to be a 50/120 guy while winning a gold glove at shortstop. Kimbrel saves 60-65 games. Kuchel starts 32 games and goes 26-4.
After all the signings MLB realizes it is futile to even play the season and awards the World Series to the Phils without them ever setting foot on the field. It is an open and shut case. You buy everyone in sight and everything goes absolutely perfectly. Isn't that how it works?

Anonymous said...

I misspoke: Mets' starters had the best ERA in the 2nd half. They improved both their bullpen and their offense significantly. I thibk the NL East is looking like a beast with 4 competitive teams.

BxJaycobb said...

@Josh Higham. Re 7/175m.....no way does he sign for that. This is either the sox putting out a semi-polite starting offer, somebody lying to lower Manny’s price, or just bad info. I simply do not believe that’s a legitimate possible endpoint. Think of it this way: let’s say the Phils sign Harper and the highest Machado offer is the 175....don’t we all figure that tons of new teams would bop in if it’s that low, like the Yankees and top it?
This last Bryce/Phillies meeting has been about the loudest FA visit in history. Suspiciously loud and joyful to say the least. It smells a bit like a joint effort by Philly to scare Machado to the table and by Bryce to get a higher offer from the Nats. If it was such an incredible meeting, why is he not signed? Why is there no offer? He/Phils know where the other parties are at.

Ole PBN said...

I agree Bx... fishy indeed. But perhaps Phils didn't put an offer on the table because they wanted to woo Bryce first, without the cash. Get to know him a little better, lay the groundwork for a fruitful relationship. I think a meeting like that impacts how much Philly is willing to fork over, while also giving Bryce an idea of how much (or little) he'd take from Philly to play for them. That's why sometimes you don't go into the first meeting with an offer in-hand. Regardless of whether people disagree with this strategy, I think that might explain why we haven't seen an offer yet from them.

Jay said...

I think Boras has played the Harper bonanza quite well. The Dodgers traded two of their outfielders - they're clearing space for Harper pops up all over the news. Harper meets with Ted Lerner and will be meeting with the Phillies - Harper is gaining momentum to resign with the Nats pops up. Harper meets with the Phillies and has not signed with the Nats or anyone else - Harper and Gabe Kapler are best buddies and the Phillies are giddy. I agree that it all sounds fishy. However, the longer Harper stays unsigned then the longer another team can change their mind and swoop in and sign him. The next few weeks with Machado, Harper, and all of the other unsigned free agents out there will be very interesting.

Ole PBN said...

I think after all of this Bryce Bonanza, he should have a televised segment in which he announces where he will be "taking his talents" to next year. All this faux drama deserves a proper ending :)

DezoPenguin said...

Apparently the Nats have made a bullpen move for a left-handed pitcher, and we are now the proud employers of Vidal Nuno.

...Actually, he's probably better than Solis, plus as an ex-starter he has the potential to play long man alongside Grace. So okay, it's not "trade for Will Smith" or the like, but it's a marginal improvement to the team. Raises the floor, even if not the ceiling.

blovy8 said...

It seems a little odd to still be hearing nothing about any teams being interested in Gio. Yeah, Keuchel's a better pitcher by a fair margin, but Gio has pitched more innings in the last three years than that guy. He'll drive you crazy as you watch, but on durability alone, he should be getting Sabathia money, right?

Screech said...

I'd like to see Luzardo come back in the fold. Any chance the A's would do a straight up for Garcia?

Jimmy said...

@blovy-Gio will at least get a lynn type aav I would think.
@screech-The A's aren't going to trade the best left handed pitching prospect in baseball for what still amounts to a lottery ticket in Garcia.

Anonymous said...

I seem to remember when Ken Griffey Jr went to Cincinnati the entire baseball world predicting he would become the home run king hitting in the bandbox that is Great American Ballpark. Griffey, a better hitter than Bryce, hit 40 his first year and then fell off considerably. Injuries played a big part, but don't they always. Reality bites.

Anonymous said...

Gio’s “performance” for Milwaukee in the playoffs was one of the saddest, most embarrassing things I’ve ever seen in my life. I mean, that was downright pathetic.

For the life of me can’t imagine any executive in baseball watching that and thinking to himself “yeah,I need him as a starter”. A cheap LOOGY, maybe, but a starter, no way.

blovy8 said...

Griffey was five years older at that point. He'd already peaked, and he probably shouldn't have still been playing center as long as he did - but everyone remembered all the highlight reel plays he made in his 20s. At least no one is going to mistake Harper for a center fielder after last year.

sirc said...

So, think that Holland will land back in the Nats' laps? He might be averse to not having a team when pitchers and catchers report for a second consecutive year.

He was excellent for the Nats.

BxJaycobb said...

@Anon. I don’t actually think it’s a 100% sure thing Griffey will definitely be a better hitter than Bryce when it’s all said and done. Griffey’s career wRC+ is 131, which is lower than Harper’s. His career slash line, in a higher offense environment is quite close to Bryce’s. He never in his career had a year as incredible as Bryce’s 2015 (197 wRC+)...the big separator being that Bryce is clearly superior to Jr. in one specific hitting area: patience/walks. Griffey never sniffed the .460 OBP Bryce put up in 2015, and only had a couple .400 OBP seasons. I suspect Bryce will have like 6-8. If Bryce ages well (a big if) and can become more consistent, he may end up with a better lifetime slash line than Griffey. (And yes I of course realize Griffey’s 30s were a mess, but until the end he was never a below average hitter when he played; and yes I also realize Bryce isn’t a shadow of Griffey’s defensive gifts.)
Re GIO.....signing Gio as a 5th starter for 1 yr/8m is fine by me. You just don’t want him ever to take the mound in a playoff game.

Johnny Callison said...

BxJaycobb:

I agree with you on Griffey/Harper. It remains to be seen how healthy Harper stays. If he moves to first in the next few years, I think it helps his long-term health and value.

Gio...yeah, a good inning-eating #5 who I might consider leaving off the actual playoff roster come post-season. He could really help in that #5 slot, though. But Rizzo sometimes burns his bridges, so I kinda doubt Gio's coming back. Still, we really need someone like him and who is more like Gio than...Gio!?

DezoPenguin said...

I'd have no problem with bringing Gio back as #5. He's a definite improvement on the Fedde/Ross tier of guys, and he wasn't bad for Milwaukee in the regular season. And being a starting lefty is pretty good for our heavily RH bullpen, too, so we'd turn around the other side's platoon guys. I suspect he'd be handled more like Hellickson than his usual self at this point unless he managed to recapture his previous performance, but, I mean, I actually would be happy with someone who pitched like a damn good starter to the first 18 batters, because I don't trust Fedde to even do that. (The actual Hellickson would be a perfectly fine choice there, too, and would likely not cost much more than he did last year.)

As everyone else has said, just don't ask him to start in the playoffs. But with Scherzer, Strasburg, and Corbin in the fold, barring injury even our #4 would only get one start in any series. (And if we do start getting injuries to our top three guys, then we have bigger problems than our #5 pitcher making a start in the playoffs, because we'll be happy to just be there.)

Zimmerman11 said...

@CDNMOOSELIPS Larry Walker made a big move in HOF voting this year and has a shot at induction in 2020... I know most of yous guys don't care about the Expos... but this is pretty freaking cool :)

65% ?!?!?! HOLY BALLS!!!!!!!!!!! - Larry Walker

sirc said...

I feel guilty about the Expos. All DC baseball fans should. We lost our baseball team twice. We should have been awarded an expansion team. That we benefitted from another city's loss isn't justice, it's ironic.

So I root for expos entering the Hall. I root for Montreal to get one of the Florida franchises, or a future expansion club. I appreciate that the Nats have honored former expos in DC. Until Montreal gets a team, the baseball universe will be out of balance.

Zimmerman11 said...

Harper brought me here to the Nats Blog... he started with an Expos Blog :) I kind of hope they put an AL team in Montreal so I can root for both clubs.

blovy8 said...

AsCab for 3.5m for the Rangers is a pretty good deal. The Nats wouldn't need to carry Difo if they had signed him, and maybe could have put the 5 million savings into pitching. The upside of Dozier is clearly there, but apart from the one postseason tantrum, Cabrera seemed to be pretty good here.

That long walk he took through the field to the center field exit after he was ejected in a Mets-Nats grapefruit game was pretty damned funny too.

zaelianwar seo said...


viagra jakarta
toko viagra
viagra usa
viagra original
obat viagra
obat kuat viagra
viagra asli
toko viagra
viagra
viagra asli
jual viagra
jual obat kuat viagra asli