The Nats have set themselves mostly right after a stumbling start. They took the 2nd game of a two game homestand against the Phillies and won an away series against the Mets, making up for a series lost to the Mets to start the year.
But it hasn't been a clear turnaround. While the team has started scoring runs and winning games, the pitching has continued to struggle. The bullpen is the main issue, most notably the fact that Trevor Rosenthal still hasn't gotten a single batter out, but things get even more scarier when you think a little bit more. The Nats have been able to use the early season plethora of off days to their advantage. The breakdown of these 8 games includes only 1 game not started by Max, Stras, or Corbin. Only one pitcher (Matt Grace) has been forced to throw three days in a row. There's a couple more break days coming up which means a little more manipulation is possible but starting April 16th the Nationals will get into the meat of the season. They'll be forced to use their fourth and fifth starters, and forced to use a tired pen. What happens then?
This series against the Phillies is a pop quiz of sorts for that question. This is the first stretch of 5 games in a row where the Nats will have to dig into their 5th starter. Davey managed to only use one relief pitcher twice in the past two days (Suero) giving him as deep a bullpen as possible but still a bullpen where no one has more than one day of rest. This series will test how bad this thing, that already looks bad, can get.
What I have as a goal going forward is simple. Don't get swept. If the Nats get swept they'd be 5 games behind the Phillies with 5 H2H games in the past. It's a big gap with decidedly less opportunity to make that up (compared to say 19 full games left to even any gaps they may have with the Braves). Even a series loss (the most likely scenario) only puts the Nats 3 games out. So don't get swept.
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It is amazing to me that the team has looked so incompetent and is still .500. The baseline position player talent is clearly good and the top 3 pitchers are clearly good.
Yesterday I checked the score at 7-1 and said out loud, "this is almost a safe lead!" Turns out Max and the pen had 8 more runs in them though.
You warned us about the bullpen back on February 25th, Harper. So far, at least, the Nationals' universe is unfolding as you said it should. Boy, is it ever.
They've been half good, half bad, and the record happens to match their performance. So far, they've averaged almost 6 runs a game (really good!) and they've been allowing a little over 6 runs a game (really bad!). The starting pitching overall has been fine, but the bullpen (outside of trusty Doolittle) has been quite scary. Not sure the best way to fix it at this point.
I don’t think anybody on earth thought it or Rosenthal would be like this. This is like comical performance art. I was disappointed with the pen and thought it had below average potential. But worst in baseball? I mean that requires every single person to be a disaster bad or “unprecedented futility”.
I would also suggest that the Phillies and Mets are looking better than expected. It’s sill super early, but if Maikal Franco, Zach Eflin, Peter Alonso, and Jeff McNeil can be HALF this good, I view both those teams as above 90 win talent.
Also. I guess were just not gonna discuss Strasburg’s velocity drop until it causes a problem? He’s almost 2 mph below what he’s been in any April. Somethings up for sure. I suppose it could be by design. But if that’s true why haven’t we seen any 97mph pitches late in games in key spots?
Yeah, the bullpen has been hanging out in shouting distance "absolute worst-case scenario" territory. Doolittle has been great, Barraclough decent, Suero, and Sipp appear to have inflated ERAs due to bad luck (per FIP and xFIP), Grace ditto (though since his FIP is over 4 but xFIP sub-three he appears to be running into some homer-prone tendencies), while Miller's results have exceeded his pitching, but luck does not explain Rosenthal one bit. I mean, expectations varied widely, but "completely lost his command" was not one of those expectations. I mean, yesterday was almost a victory in that while he didn't retire anybody, again, at least this time the batters he put on base didn't score thanks to Suero.
And the problem with a group of "just a guy" relievers (Miller/Suero/Grace/Sipp/Barraclough) is that you figure that these are people who'll keep runs off the board maybe two out of every three days. Expecting them to lock down close games is a hit-or-miss strategy (that's largely missed thus far, aggravated by Rosenthal obliterating hope every time he appears) that requires a savvy manager to read the situation and carefully play the matchups. Thus far Martinez does not appear to be up to this particular task.
But Rosenthal and Glover were supposed to provide something better than basic competence-grade relief and instead one's punked out and the other got hurt, and it's turned everything between the starter and Doolittle into a crapshoot.
Kimbrel may not be the answer, but I think Rizzo needs to start feeling around to see if folks on the Will Smith tier might be available in trade sooner rather than later. Padding that bridge tier means that the Sueros and Millers of the world can go back to being useful at the role that they are able to fulfill. (It's not unlike Wilmer Difo--perfectly fine being a utility infielder, not so fine spending two months of the season as your starting shortstop.)
In terms of the BP, can we please move on and at least throw different crap against the wall from our minor league system and see if it sticks...especially Rosenthal. Let's release him with infinity being his well-deserved ERA, and let's move on. Call 'em up..unless Lerner is demanding he get his money's worth from the contract. I hope it's differed until 2121...
@Dezo: Kimbrel certainly is the answer. The Lerners just don't want to pay him. Just like they didn't want to pay for Bryce, and won't pay for Rendon. (The day after he wins this year's MVP they'll hand Rendon an envelope offering $100 mil deferred until 2150, and when he signs somewhere else they'll complain that he never got back to them with a counter-offer.)
The bullpen is playing very bad (FIP of 5.69) but they are also getting astoundingly unlucky (BABIP of .446), so this ERA (10.80) is at least a little bit skewed.
(Hilariously, is you remove Doo, you get 19 innings of a 6.67 FIP, a BABIP of .476 and an ERA of 13.13! We're lucky it that hasn't cost us more games.)
The funniest part about this Rosenthal debacle is that he needs to throw 16 scoreless innings, just to get his ERA back to a respectable level.
As someone noted on the tweeter machine: "If Rosenthal were to face Chris Davis, what would happen?"
What should Martinez have done yesterday?
Maybe he should have let Rosenthal start a clean 7th inning with the score 12-1. Otherwise, I'm not sure what else he did that was so drastically incompetent. He yanked Rosenthal after two batters, sensing impending disaster. He gave--albeit a jet-lagged--Ross a shot. Grace and Suero took their turns, too.
Sometimes--sometimes--bullpens right themselves, whether by addition, subtraction or even by adjusting mechanics. In the case of Rosenthal, @ssln (the insolent philosopher) may have hit the nail on the head in his "confidence-by-sports-psychologist" theory. (His abrasive posts, I think, have led many here to dismiss the validity of his argument. You could look it up.)
Right now, though, coping and hoping (but short of doping and shopping)is going to define this bullpen in the immediate future.
Rosenthal has made four appearances. He has a lengthy track record as a quality reliever and his velocity is normal for him. It would be absolutely idiotic to cut bait on him now. If given an over-under of 4.00 on his ERA for the REST of 2019, I'd take the under. He needs to be given a bunch more chances, though I wouldn't mind a phantom injury causing some of those chances to take place in AA.
BxJ, I agree that Strasburg's velo drop is something to pay attention to. But I'm not worried about it yet for a couple of reasons. First, it's only two starts. There is a general pattern of starters raising velo through April, though Strasburg has never exhibited this pattern before. On the other hand, the velo drop is consistent with what he did after coming back from injury late in the summer last year, which suggests that this might have staying power. Regardless, it's too early to draw conclusions about what Strasburg's velocity will look like going forward. The second reason I'm not especially concerned about it is that the important performance indicators still look good - K% is at the high end of his career range, and the BB% is perfectly in line with his career norms. So even if the velo drop sticks around, it may not affect his performance all that much. So, I'm paying attention but I'm not yet worried.
FP talked about Stras' velo yesterday. As they commented on Wheelers lack of control despite upper 90's heat, he mentiod Stras is focusing on taking a little bit off his fastball and dialing it up when he wants to (changing speeds, if you will).
Just repeating what FP said that Stras said himself. If this is the case, I don't think its a cause for concern.
And SM, no one here disagree's with sports psychology (regardless of who brings it up). I think its what Rosenthal needs. That and a freakin haircut. But as follower of this blog for some time, it is unwise to bring up anything that can't be looked up on Fangraphs, or that doesn't have quantifiable data to back up one's premise (i.e. team chemistry, pitching/swing mechanics, a manager's "feel" for the game - all of which are huge factors in the game). But its also part of why I like this blog too - a different perspective that is grounded in data/statistics. For example, I'm 100% with JW on Dozier's swing looking slow as hell, but I doubt that perspective will gain any traction here, unfortunately.
Yessir, Ole PBN, I'll remember that: ". . . it is unwise to bring up anything that can't be looked up on Fangraphs."
I'd stop a little shy of accusing us of rejecting anything that can't be looked up on fangraphs. Maybe "don't say statistics can't answer your questions, only psychology can" because that is an unfair attempt to end the numbers-oriented conversation that most of the commenters here prefer.
I think sports psych is really cool but the fundamental nature of it is that it's unmeasurable to outsiders, difficult to verify, and not universally applicable (for example, if a change of scenery is really what fixed Treinen, great, but a change of scenery didn't fix Storen, so what are we supposed to do with the information?). Psychological information isn't publicly available and it's not really super appropriate to assume we know what would fix someone's brain, but there's not a lot of morality associated with with saying "yeah Zimmerman's exit velocity is still good but he can't field worth beans and we can't count on him to be healthy, so he should be platooned."
Even with Rosenthal - and Bear Claw - having April struggles, I'm a bigger believer in Suero now. I mean, technically it was a "low-leverage" situation coming in after Rosenthal's wild pitches. But I was hoping Suero could be at least as good as he ended last season, so far this year, so good.
I think they need to sign Kimbrel. It helps the Nats. It hurts whoever would have signed him - could be the Phillies, Braves, Dodgers, etc. My argument it if not now when. Look at the Nats for the next 3 or so years. Rendon will hopefully still be here (he better be or the Lerners really are idiots). He'll be in the $25-30 million dollar range, that is about $12 million more than he is making now. Trea Turner is still cheap. Carter Kieboom will likely be here this year or next. Dozier will fall off. Zimm will be renegotiated or gone with likely another midling cost first baseman. The OF is cheap in Soto, Robles, and Eaton on a team friendly deal. Scherzer, Strasburg, and Corbin aren't cheap, but that is unlikely to change over the next three years. The rest of the starting rotation is not bad. Doolittle and Rosenthal are both signed for two more years but not at monster number. If you can't afford Kimbrel now, then you likely won't be able to afford anyone the next 3-4 years because of having $100 million invested in the top three starters and big money in Rendon. Plus there is no one of consequence that is a free agent next year (except Rendon). Sign Kimbrel. Give yourself a chance for this year and get under the cap next year.
Also, Martinez is definitely part of the problem. He manages scared. There were countless times in yesterdays BP meltdown when a trip to the mound by the pitching coach to calm guys down would have helped. Instead the anxiety and fear was palpable through the tv.
I hope Michael A spent a little time during rehab working on his mound presence. He's thrown 100 mph too, from center...
Jay:
Looked it up on Fangraphs. Nothing about Martinez managing scared.
Good one, @blovy8!
16 ABs: .188 BA, .235 OBP, .375 SLG. 0 walks, 8 strikeouts.
Great pitching stats . . . except that MAT is a position player.
He apparently did hit 95mph with at least 1 pitch.
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=544931&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=month&minmax=ci&var=maxmph&s_type=2&startDate=03/28/2019&endDate=04/08/2019
His average on his 4 seamer is a tick below 94. I believe that the velocity chart indicates he can summon it if he needs it.
There has been much discussion about signing Craig Kimbrel but I haven't seen much discussion of why he hasn't received an offer. One reason is the asking price but the other has to do with baseball's compensatory draft pick rule. Boston made a 17.9M qualifying offer to Kimbrel that he refused. If someone signs Kimbrel they will lose a draft pick under the rules. Boston will get a pick after the fourth round in this year's amateur draft. If Kimbrel does not sign until after June 1, Boston doesn't get the pick and the signing team doesn't lose a pick. So I suspect that Kimbrel will be watching baseball on the big screen until June 1 and then be signed shortly thereafter.
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