We said earlier buying into the Nats as a WC leader with an outside chance at a division should be easy given how they team has played for the past 2 months. But Max's injury makes every thing a question. Add to that a crowded WC field (4 teams within 1 game, followed by a quixotic but not selling SF team, a still underperforming ARI team, and a Mets team that is looking to re-configure not sell) and the Nats playoff chances are more wobbly than you think they would be for a team playing like the best team in baseball for 60 games.
They need a 5th starter. For one they need someone to cover those 10 remaining games so they aren't 8+ losses. For another if Max is out longer than the 10-day IL that doubles and they need another arm DESPERATELY. They also need relievers. The relief pitching isn't historically bad as it looked to be midway through May but June put up a middline 4.54 ERA and July so far is at 5.06. The peripherals might have given the pen some slack in June, but in July they look bad again.
The Nats don't have many resources to acquire these things. They are closer to the cap then they would like and their farm system is one of the worst in baseball. (checks on Luis Garcia again) Yep. It will either take creativity or gumption to get things done. .
If you do want to buy the argument against you is : No Max, likely fighting for a WC. The farm is weak as it is. You are buying to fight for this year, and maybe next but quite possibly setting up a real dry spell for the start of the 2020s as the pitching ages.
If you don't want to buy the argument against you is : there are no promises for next year, the pitching is older and only going to be more prone to injuries, there isn't help coming from the farm. The Braves are good and deep. The Phillies will be committed for a few years. If you aren't selling the drop off is likely coming regardless.
Look at the Nats and plot me a way forward for the next few years. It's hard. Next year will free up some cash with Zimm and likely Gomes' options not picked up. But almost all of that would go into signing Rendon and paying up Turner's arbitration. You got out with the same squad as this year, a year older and hope for health the entire year and another set of really good years from your stars? (Stras, Corbin, and Rendon are pretty much performing optimally this year) And how long does that buy you? The other option is don't sign Rendon and do something like sign Garrett Cole. Go all in on pitching, but that offense is relying on step ups from Soto, Robles, Turner to cover for Rendon being gone.
I'm not going to say the Nats can't do it - but the stretching of this window was due in part to the unique set up the Nats found in 2012 - so good, so young - and then a run of luck - Max being not just great but becoming the best pitcher in baseball. Murphy, the at best 2nd choice, becoming an MVP candidate. Dusty guiding the bullpen during the season with some acumen.
I say go for it now. You say what you want. But if you don't say go for it - tell me how you think the next few years play out with the Nats staying competitive. Just through 2021-2022 (anything beyond 3 years is a waste of planning)
Oh yeah - there's still a Braves game. Like last post - win and it was a good 16 game stretch. Lose and it still wasn't a bad one.
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Everyone should on the table outside of Kieboom Rutledge Denaburg
1. Everyone should be on the table who can't help the MLB team this year.
2. The luxury tax is not a salary cap. So they have to pay a 50% tax on the money above it? It's a few million dollars we're talking about. If you let the luxury tax stop you, you're throwing away the $200 million the Nats are already spending on payroll. This is sheer lunacy. Penny wise, pound foolish to the max. I would say the team should be taken away from the Lerners if they aren't willing to spend a few million to try to get something for the payroll they've already spent. Gross mismanagement.
3. Be very aggressive. Trade anyone in the minors. Take on salary. Get a starting pitchers. Get at least two good relievers. Chase down the Braves and go for a ring.
I look at these contending teams this year and they all were irrelevant 3-4 years ago. It's the ebb and flow of tanking for prospects and selling your high-priced assets in order to win later, and they are winning. Rizzo is trying to do both and I commend him for it, but this is what we talk about with toeing that thin line. It's a delicate balance.
I really don't like buying anything in exchange for value this year (trading Kieboom, Garcia, Rutledge, Denaburg, Mendoza are no-go's for me). That the farm "depth" that we need to grow and not shell out for a guy who will throw 13 innings for us this year. Please don't do it.
But I do worry about where this team will be a couple years down the road if we don't lock down some of our homegrown superstars. Rendon will leave, I can almost guaruntee it. And its crazy to say this, but it sucks that we're in contention because if we weren't I'd want to sell Rendon yesterday. But why haven't we extended Turner, Soto, or even Robles yet? Especially with Rendon's situation set to rock the franchise in either direction?
I also worry that this is the beginning of the end for Scherzer. Bursa is a tough problem to shake and what are we going to do then? You need these Denaburg's and Rutledge's (and Crowe's?) of the world to pan out. Our player development and draft scouting might be suspect, but it doesn't matter if you trade them away.
I can live with not making the playoffs this year. After all, we were ragging on this club for the first 4 months of the season. Maybe its too little too late? Fine. Just don't go selling everything we have of value to *mayyyybeee* make the WC game. Please don't.
I mean....this team is not going to be contending for the division for the next 3-4 years. They’re just not. The gap between the Nats and Braves will only grow from here on out. I don’t see why you wouldn’t go for it this year and get what you need. So you can be an 83 win team instead of a 76 win team? If Max is done for the year, then fine, don’t go for it because what’s the point? But if he is likely to be out for like a matter of weeks and back in September and October....do what you have to do to hold the line and get us in the game. Because we’re not going to be in the game very often for the next few years. The Braves are only going to get better and better. We’re talking about a team that has smartly extended its home grown stars when we have not, has basically the best farm system in the NL when we have the worst, and is young when we are old. This season (with Rendon, and 3 pitchers pitching like aces) is probably our last chance before the wilderness. I say you go for it. Thinking that Denaburg, Garcia, and Kieboom are going to lift this team to division winners is insane, guys. (So is “trade everybody except the pieces people would want”). It’s time to go all in for one last shot. This is what you do when you blow 4 chances in the NLDS. Eventually you have to make a high risk chips in bet. (I don’t view it as that high risk. Again, I don’t see this team as a contender in the NL East for 3-4 years after this.)
If this team doesn’t do much at the deadline to fix its pitching, it will rightly be viewed as stupidly over the top conservative by the industry.
You've convinced me Harper largely because I don't see the Nats re-signing Rendon. Push the chips to the middle of the table, deal Kieboom for a couple of relievers and maybe a 5th starter if you can get them. Go for it. Because next year looks pretty meh, and could be bad.
Sadly, with 3 hours left, it's looking more and more likely that they stand pat, which, if Max is really hurt, is the right thing to do, but if he isn't they need to go for it.
I'm okay with the Nats trading Kieboom. I'm not okay with them dealing Kieboom for a non-elite reliever, which is what Shane Greene is. Yes, the results have been good, but the underlying numbers aren't nearly as good.
I think something will happen, because there are teams that really could just dump guys for the best offer and there is a clear need here. All it takes is for one team to like a Nats player better than they do. It won't seem like "go for it" moves, but the top prospects will be safe.
Man, it must be nice to have a power hitter like Duvall stashed in AAA most of the year, what's he got - four homers in five games?
I think the logic of "going all in" and acting like we're "doing something" is cry of desperation. It's Redskins logic. I'm seeing that the Braves and Nats are pursuing Shane Green. Detroit wants Kieboom. If that's the price of a decent reliever right now, then we must be desperate for 15 innings of potentially solid relief, when we're winning a given game, and only if these games matter, which they won't if Max is hurt long term. That is stupidity.
Countdown to deadline closure indicates that any team still making phone calls is desperate. Our bullpen is trash. One guy is not going to fix it. And to ship the only thing of value for it is stupid. If Rendon walks, Kieboom is all the more important. But you could have Shane Green (who will be 31 next year) for a year and a half and lose Kieboom and Rendon.
Bx, I think we should put our chips to the center. Just not right now, with what we're trying to get and what we would need to give up, with who we have leaving our team next season. Unless people think Kieboom is a bust (and who knows?), then by all means, go get Greene. To put it in perspective: Miami wanted Robles for Realmuto, the best catcher in baseball. Steep, but makes sense, and look at the catcher we would have gotten in return? Sounds rational. A fairly comparable prospect for a relief pitcher, who is not the best? Seems foolish and.... desperate. And I just don't know why we have to be. Just like Harper doesn't advise on looking 3 years down the road with our team, why are we doing that with ATL and assuming dominance for half a decade?
... and we just acquired Daniel Hudson from TOR for Kyle Johnston. Thank god. Moves like this will improve the pen somewhat and keep us afloat. Johnston is a nobody.
These are exactly the right moves Rizzo needed to make. Three new BP arms, one being a lottery ticket in Strickland. Now to get a 5th starter...
Soooo, who's gone from the present Nat's bullpen? Grace, who else?
Blazek, Guerra, possibly Sipp. Plenty of guys to not be missed.
Strickland is even money to hurt someone (including himself) before he helps the team. He's pitched one inning since the beginning of April. That deal looks awful unless there's an anger management rider in his contract.
I think these were perfectly fine moves for where we are. after losing the braves series, wild card is probably the goal. you now have a relatively deep bullpen with some guys stepping up and becoming the set up for doolittle. Shane Greene to the braves could work but the guys is pitching with incredible luck that should regress soon. The biggest thing that happened in this deadline is the dodgers did not make the kingmaker move for vazquez. the national league is still wide open for nats braves cubs cardinals (other wild card team)
If the Nationals play at the same rate as they have since late May they will catch the Braves. If their bullpen had not blown 7 games in that time frame they would be tied now. If Rizzo has fixed the bullpen it will be an exciting September. Lots of "ifs", but all true.
The Nationals have made up a grand total of 1.5 games on the Braves since May 27. Another two months of that pace and they'll finish 5 games back. But wait--back then they had an easier remaining schedule, but now the Braves do.
Give it up. They won't catch the Braves.
I’m just not that sure that these bullpen moves will be as much of a finishing piece given that we have no 4th and 5th starters. Like....I think we needed a starter.
The fact that Rizzo didn't get a starter makes me cautiously optimistic that Max will return soon.
Maybe they're going to keep 14 pitchers...
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