In mid August I was all excited. The Nats were in a WC1 position and nearly destined to have some games that mattered played down the stretch. After years of seasons being officially over in early September and technically without drama weeks before then, the Nats would have an actual stretch run of games that you'd watch with baited breath hanging on every pitch.
Except - nope.
The Nats have played well - but so have the Braves. The 6-7 game lead has maintained for another week more and while there could still be excitement, given the number of games left between the two teams, a simple Braves win in the first two games of the four game set coming up and a split overall would likely be the end of that.
The Nats have played well - but no other WC contender has. The Nats expanded their lead on the Cubs, Phillies, Brewers, D-backs, Mets, and Giants by at least two games on each. This could change with a Nats crash but as I've said before I don't see it, even with the harder schedule to end the season.
So the Nats have passed Labor Day and found themselves in familiar ground. A September to not remember. A last month of the season that once again will likely have no really memorable games. A September where the most important games will be the ones that could make things interesting, if this goes one way for a couple more after this and something else works out another.
Oh well. It's not the worst thing to have an easy ride into the playoffs
Reviewing the Labor Day guesses (some of these ended a day earlier than others)
STL 73-62 Actual 75-59. Like nearly every team they were able to really ride their easy stretch and make it count. Most importantly they went 4-2 against the Brewers gaining two games on them.
CHC 73-63. Actual 73-63. Hey good for me!
MIL 70-66. Actual 70-66. Hey again!
PHI 72-62. Actual 69-65. Hey. how about those NL Central guesses! ... No? The Phillies were not able to make the move other teams were with an easy stretch going 8-7 which even generously doesn't make me close to right. A big key to the stretch and the season is their inability to beat the Marlins losing that series and being 7-9 against them overall. You have to beat up on the bad teams and Philly doesn't do that.
NYM 67-68. Actual 69-66. They swept Cleveland! Then got swept by ATL and CHC! Then nearly swept Philly! Roller Coaster team! Wheeee!
ARI 69-68. Actual 70-67. They started by losing the first three to the Giants but ended by winning the first 3 at LA so it evened out.
What's to watch now? Assuming the Nats don't choke it away, I'd keep my eye on Arizona. 24 games left. 8 vs SD (5 at home), 6 vs CIN, 3 vs MIA. I'd also watch the winner of the PHI / NYM series coming up. If it's the Mets they have an easy back end to September to make that last push. If it's Philly (and they don't lose these last two against Cincy) they may be able to close the gap with WSN to 5 by the time they play again, which is still to far to be worried but would at least make game 1 of that last 5 game set interesting and dammit I'm dying for interesting.
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27 comments:
Ever the pessimist, I'm worried about the Nats losing 5 games (or more) to ATL, and allowing the other wild card contenders to gain ground. And I'm worried about not-fully-recovered Max pitching against deGrom tonight. I want Max to win the Cy Young award, and tonight's game will play an important role in that race. And I'm worried about Eaton, who was red-hot when he got injured.
This will be an interesting month. First, "It ain't over til its over." The Braves are outrageously hot, but then again, so are the Nats. Or so they have been. After going 9 of 10 we worry about a Ross loss to a well-prepared Syndergaard. We are spoiled. We have 3 pitchers with over 200 strikeouts, 2 Cy Young contenders, a possible MVP, the best 3-4 hitters in baseball. Hell, even our catching tag team looks like a Rizzo stroke of genius. Bring on the Braves.
And if we can't catch Atlanta (sure, its a long shot) the defense of the wildcard leadership will be interesting. Instead of being 4 games out, the Nats are sitting pretty with a nice lead. But they can't be complacent. They have to play good baseball against a gamut of teams that are vying for the 2nd wildcard. This stretch will foreshadow the wildcard and possibly what comes after that.
Meanwhile, we get to see a bunch of great individual stuff: Rendon playing for MVP and his payday, Soto acting out the best under 20 year in recent memory and Strasburg/Scherzer contending for the Cy Young. It will be entertaining and I doubt it will be boring.
PF - The only reasonable worry I see is that the Cubs may get hot enough to either pass the Nats or even the Cardinals but the Cards end up ahead of the Nats - so the Nats no longer host the WC. With a 6 game lead over the next closest team it's going to take BOTH a Nats collapse and a team overperforming to make it happen. If the Nats go 13-13 (possible) other team has to go 19-7 very unlikely and that's for the next closest team to tie the Nats. Worried about the Mets? Go .500 and they have to go 21-4 to pass the Nats. No it'll take both a collapse and a surge. Not outside the realm of possibility but the Nats control their own destiny from here on out and just have to meet expectations.
ND - Dammit I want "in or out" excitement! Great play with the back of the head "well it could get interesting if this and this happens in the next 3 days... didn't happen! Well I guess this and this and this could happen in the NEXT 3..." I've had years of that following this team. Time for something new.
@Harper. Empirically, you are correct. Emotionally, I worry. And all of this for a one-game play-in.
Teams (or players) do not, and cannot, control their own destiny. This is a sports cliche that I myself used, until my wise-ass kids pointed out to me that "destiny," by definition, is something that is outside the control of an individual. It is something that is pre-ordained. In Greek mythology, the gods determined the "destiny" of individuals.
Agree with the above comments. Nats should be fine, but emotionally it feels like they could either end up WC2, or out of the playoffs completely (given their tough September schedule and the lingering issues mentioned above......also, Doo doesn't seem 100% back yet).
Yeah my main concern right now is Doo. I didn't watch the last Miami game, but saw that his fastball on the last pitch was only 91. Was he holding back with a big lead, and another month to go? Or is he still gassed?
Dooo has said he needs 3-4 outings to get back into the swing of things so as boswell said in his chat last week lets see where he is by second braves series at home before we freak out
I still want the division title. Win these last two against the Mets. Sweep the Braves. Both series. My good friend back in NC that watches the Braves every night tells me their announcers are still fretting daily over the Nats and the upcoming games. Not that that necessarily applies to the players at all....but it is as frustrating for them that they have been on a tear and still haven't put the division away as it is for us that our team has been on a tear and still hasn't made up any appreciable ground.
Was just reading ESPN's guess at a postseason roster for the Nats, and while I couldn't argue with most of what they preposed, with the huge exception in that they had Joe Ross moving to the bullpen. Given that coming out of the bullpen makes him suck really bad, I doubt this will be the case. I know we have all of September to debate this, but only having to really 4 starters (if/when we make it out f the WC and into a series, where do we see the Nats shoring up help with that extra roster spot...bullpen or outfield (pinch runner)?
@sammy, agreed. I really really want the division. But given the Nats haven't been able to gain any ground and there's only a month left, it's just not going to happen without a collapse
@Suburban Steve, I think Joe in the pen is important. Not because he's particularly good out of the pen, but in case one of our starters gets injured or implodes. Joe can come in, pitch 4-5 innings, and keep the relief corps fresh, recognizing that the game is probably already lost at that point
@cauiouslypessimistic - I do see your point...I wonder if the stats guys on here know how many playoff games in the modern era have been won by more than - what do we count as a 'laugher'? - 8 runs?
PotomacFan this is why I read this blog. I'm getting re-educated on Hellenic roots?!? That is frikin' awesome!
A boring September? The automaton has a weird definition, to me. Tonight is Max Scherzer vs. Jacob DeGrom, how much more fun do you need?
One of the great things about watching through mlb.com is picking the broadcast to watch. When a lot of them review the standings every night, they keep talking about that "surging Nats squad"
.......followed by a mention that Atlanta is even hotter. I think it's going to be a pretty amazing September. Maybe not loser is out type games but there is still a lot of time for shifting the final order around.
@NattyDread. The catching tag team looks like a stroke of genius? I don’t want to be the Debby downer here—mostly it’s great stuff all around!—but it’s been very far from a stroke of genius. If they had spent that money on Grandal that’s a difference of 5 wins and we’re in the hunt. The Nats catchers have not been good. Gomes has been atrocious on offense and Suzuki is an abysmal defensive catcher. Their combined WAR is like 0.5 or something. Well below average catching production. This is also why I found Boswell’s column on “the great Kurt Suzuki” so absurd. Look up his overall value. He’s a good hitter for a catcher. He is borderline unplayable in terms of defense and framing. Much worse than you would think from watching him (where u can notice a ton of passed balls and never throwing anybody out).....to be clear, I might still play him over Suzuki bc of the bat. But this is very very very far from genius.
Epic comeback!!!!!!!!!!¡!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!¡!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!¡!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!¡!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Suzuki breaks the Mets! What was the win probability, like 1% going into the bottom of the ninth? France's gonna have a field day with this one!
By the way, games like this help me be OK with Doo pitching in ninth inning 'not quite a save' situations. In the juiced ball era, few leads are truly foolproof. I know it resulted in Doo getting worn down, but they needed those wins and Davey often didn't have anyone else reliable
Francesa, not France. Spell Check..........
Damn. Bad night to only extend the DVR recording a half hour instead of a full hour . . .
I can't sleep. I'm still wound up tighter than a banjo string after that comeback win.
G Cracka X: it is way less than % win probability. Only 6 teams ever have come back from down 6 in b9 to walk off in 9th. This is all time....history of baseball....the 19th most unlikely win ever. Meaning, that for a winning team, the win probability was 19th lowest it’s ever been, according to this. Have to check what the win probability was. But it was roughly 0.10% I believe. So 99.9% win expectancy for Mets. See below link. (PS Elias STINKS).
https://twitter.com/ThomasBoswellWP/status/1169101739330588672?s=20
Absolutely correct BX, only 6 teams have ever come back from more than six down in the ninth to to win a walk off. Blown saves are projected to be up 12% over last year according to the Baseball Almanac.
You guys argued with me when I told you that the juiced baseball is causing bullpens all over the league to implode...even though bullpens ERA's are up a run over last year. Enjoy the win...and as I said, no lead is to big to overcome in the era of the juiced ball.
That was freaking amazing...moreso that it was the Mets that it seems like we have struggled against throughout this year. Zuk!!!
Crap! Deleted the game from Tivo and went to bed in the top of the 9th, not something I usually do after a certain Dodger game in 1988 that I didn't watch after . . . well, we all know what happened.
At least this was a play-off game, and I'll not make the same mistake again. 'course I'm heading out of town so won't get to see any games for the next 10 days.
@BxJaycobb You may be right statistically speaking. But then again Suzuki killed it last night. Touche.
Instead of Trea being the goat, the comeback was the GOAT!
At this point though, I'd rather have Javy Guerra on the post-season roster than Roenis Elias, who seems to specialize in giving up the homerun...yeeesh
dear god ssln, get the message. NOBODY was arguing that the juiced ball was causing implosions, we were arguing that the Nats bullpen in particular was blowing it worse, and we BACKED IT UP WITH STATISTICS and not just musings about philosophy.
Cautiously Pessimistic said...
dear god ssln, get the message. NOBODY gives a flying rats ass about your self-aggrandizing pontificating and we really wish you would either stop posting for the sole purpose of criticizing others and discuss baseball in relation to something other than yourself, or just STFU.
There, CP, I fixed that for you.
@BxJaycobb said: "The catching tag team looks like a stroke of genius? I don’t want to be the Debby downer here—mostly it’s great stuff all around!—but it’s been very far from a stroke of genius. If they had spent that money on Grandal that’s a difference of 5 wins and we’re in the hunt... Their combined WAR is like 0.5 or something. Well below average catching production. This is also why I found Boswell’s column on “the great Kurt Suzuki” so absurd. Look up his overall value. He’s a good hitter for a catcher. He is borderline unplayable in terms of defense and framing. Much worse than you would think from watching him (where u can notice a ton of passed balls and never throwing anybody out).....to be clear, I might still play him over Suzuki bc of the bat. But this is very very very far from genius."
Besides the dramatically unfortunate timing of your post, your math is woeful.
The Nat's catchers have a combined WAR of 1.0. Grandal's WAR is 2.4. Nats catchers have 23 HRs. Grandal has 22 HRs, to go with his .249 average. Even disregarding those numbers, signing Grandal is not a difference of five wins.
Am I happy with Gomes? No. I have always been fond of Suzuki, but I still can see that Grandal is much better. But five games better? No. Worth 5.4 million more (than the combined salaries of both Nat's catchers)? No.
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