Nationals Baseball: Snow Day Friday

Friday, February 21, 2020

Snow Day Friday

Hard to watch kids and work and blog so talk about this Mets thing

It goes along with something I was twittering about yesterday, how 2019 Rendon is a HUGE loss and the idea that the Nats can make that up is close to wishful thinking. He was better than Soto at the plate last year (I was having a discussion on whether it was slightly or significantly better) and of course, if you use the idea of 3 years of data, much better in the field. Even if Soto takes his place with a step forward offensively (not crazy given his age and progression so far which is great because we're talking about MVP levels) he won't replace the fielding and oh yeah - who fills that spot Soto just left?

The general answer is - well Kieboom/Cabrera will be good and the bullpen will be better and the Nats won't be as unlucky as last year, which possibly, probably (it could hardly not be), and actually the Nats had pretty even luck for the season as a whole.

This, of course, doesn't mean the Nats are bad and won't make the playoffs. They are good.  They'll be a game or two worse if all goes as planned. That's good enough to make the playoffs as is and if they get some good luck (or no other NL East team gets good luck) they could take the division. But still the possibility of a stalled offense around a constantly walked Soto isn't out of the question.

But back to the Mets. Why do the Mets rate favorably? Same reason past Nats teams have - projections are conservative when it comes to injuries so if you set up an injury prone but talented team you'll tend to get a pretty nice projection. If the Mets can stay healthy that rotation is a beast - better than the Nats 1-5 (though not as good 1-3) and the offense is fine. Basically healthy they are of similar talent to the Nats. Unfortunately starting pitching health is tough to bet on and the Mets have only made it work one year in this window (where as the Nats with more reliable SP has pretty much only had side issues most years).  So can the Mets win? Yep. Will they? That's up to the injury gods. 


G Cracka X said...

Is it true that projection systems are 'conservative' regarding injuries? I figured they looked at past history, and the aging curve, and came up with a reasonable best guess.

I guess the projections are saying that the Mets are the best team in the NL, on paper. Another thing to talk about is the Braves and the Phillies. Both of their projected win totals seem low. For example, the Phillies will only be .500, despite adding Wheeler and Sir Didi and losing much?? The Braves are only an 85 (claydavenport) or 87 win (FG) team??

ocw5000 said...

Phillies should overperform projections and Giants should underperform them based simply on the relocation of Gabe Kapler

Matt said...

Very relevant:

The short version: Szymborski agrees with Harper that injuries are likely to do the Mets in.

Kevin Rusch said...

At what point does "the Mets rotation will get hurt" just become the rule rather than the surprise? They really set a standard for underperforming their expectations.

G Cracka X said...

@Matt That is interesting, thanks. The other notable thing is that the Padres are projected by ZiPS for 87 wins! Didn't see that one coming (especially when the Dodgers are projected for 101).

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Tommy said...

great write up... not sure the Nationals win the WS again but we predict they make it back... against the Astros again.. good luck guys

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