As you all know, I'm generally 100% right on everything I say. It's spooky really. However, a signing yesterday points out that generally isn't always. Jordan Zimmermann, his deal with the Tigers up, has signed a minor league deal with his hometown Brewers. At the same time Max hopes to rebound and have another close to Cy Young-ish type season to end his contract with the Nats. If Max were a FA while he wouldn't get a huge deal - he is going to be 36 next season - would clearly get a well paid major league deal of multiple years. My personal error in judgement? Six or so years ago when I said I would rather have Jordan Zimmermann than Max Scherzer.
Now this wasn't based on the idea of ZNN being a better pitcher than Max. I thought Max was (slightly) better*. It was based on my feelings that ZNN was a better bet to be healthy for the entirity of the contract. After having Tommy John surgery, ZNN had basically not missed a game in 5 years, seemingly unbreakable in a way that the Nats other ace pitcher - Strasburg - was not. On the other side Max had also been a rock - basically not missing a start for 6 years. But age, Max is nearly two years older than ZNN, and use, Max had an extra 350 IP on his arm, suggested the safer bet would be ZNN.
You all know the Nats basically passed on ZNN. They offered him a low-end market deal and he walked to Detroit. You also know that he didn't amount to anything with the Tigers disappearing into the ether. But how did that happen? Well here is his 2016.
Up until May 22nd : A health ZNN puts up a 7-2 2.52 ERA line. His K's are down a tiny bit (6.67 K/9) but his control is lights-out (~1.5 BB/9) and he's keeping the ball in the park (0.8 HR/9)
May 22nd : Hurts groin. Misses a start, comes back to put up a series of mediocre performances in June
July 4th : Hurts neck. Put on DL. Misses a month
Aug 6th : Comes back for a start. Is terrible. Hurts lat. Back to the DL
Sept 10th : Comes back. Is terrible. Pitches a few more random times before end of the year. Looking slightly better.
It's a nightmare scenario where one injury leads to another leads to another. He would power through and pitch 29 games in 2017 (bad), 25 in 2018 (ok) and 23 in 2019 (bad) but he clearly wasn't the same pitcher. That pinpoint control that led to his dominant years was gone. Walks ticked up, hits even more so, and the homers nearly doubled.
Meanwhile Max stayed injury free through 2018 and only had a minor one in 2019. It's possible that leads to a cascade like ZNN had. Max's 2020 showed that same progression in losing the strike zone and being more wild, hittable, and able to be crushed, though not as terrible. But having it come in the last year of a long contract, instead of the first year makes ALL the difference. Max's is going to the Hal of Fame. ZNN is going to be a name in a book.
This is a warning though for the Nats who harbor two long pitching contracts. Corbin signed through 2024 and Stras through 2026. Corbin had a 2020 more like his pre-FA year in Arizona. Strasburg in 2020 got hurt after his ultra-rare healthy year in 2019.** The Nats are counting on both these guys being aces for the next few years. Max is aging out. There is no one in the immediate pipeline. They are eating up contract money. If one (or god forbid both) pull a Zimmermann and have 2020 be the first year in a series of years that don't measure up due to injury or whatever, the Nats are going to have a tough time being the team they have been - the consistent winner and playoff presence.
What do the Nats do then? If Stras and Corbin aren't good in 2021? A long term deal for Max is not going to happen - but he could be back for 2-3 years. He could also bolt for somewhere that will give him 3-4. Do the Nats tear down, hoping to rebuild with young pitching before the giant outlay that will likely be needed to keep Juan Soto? Or do they push on with the guys they have - hoping to puzzle things together? Well, I guess we hope there is no question, that Stras and Corbin are great in 2021 and the Nats can move on as planned.
*Say what you want to say - memory is often clouded by desire to make yourself look good - but no one had Max being the best pitcher in baseball from age 31-34. In the three years leading up to the Max signing their ERA+ were nearly identical - ZNN's control matching up nicely against Max's Ks.
** basically his second full season of his career in 10 years in the game
8 comments:
I wonder if he'd have stayed healthier playing for the Nats.
As long as the Lerners sign Juan Soto to a lifetime contract, it doesn't much matter what Strasburg and Corbin do for the remainder of their time here in Washington. The Nationals are playing with house money until those deals expire because now that they've got the hardware, it can be the thought that counts.
I'm with you von bluff. I would of course prefer that Strasburg and Corbin be amazing, but Corbin's contract is already worth it for 2019 alone. I also want a Soto lifetime contract more than just about any other possible signing.
100% agree that the top priority is a lifetime deal for Soto.
Of course, it's not my money on either side of the deal, but I want to see a real lifetime deal. Like guarantee $450m over 15 years and then tack on ~5 years of team or vesting options at $20M or something.
Which side balks at that? I'm thinking probably Soto, but man it'd be hard to turn down a record-ish deal like that so many years away from free agency.
This is so true, and also sad. ZNN was a fan favorite. We were there for his 2014 No Hitter when Souza made that diving catch for the last out- wow, that was great game!
While I agree that locking up Soto long-term is a priority, I don't know how many of those outrageous contracts are going to be out there in the current baseball climate. Are fans even going to be allowed to go to games this year?? Baseball is coming off a HORRIBLE revenue year last year and it doesn't look any better so far this year.
Bauer did get paid, overpaid in my opinion, but on a short term deal. It will be interesting to see what happens with the contract situations of Tatis in SD, Lindor in NY and Soto in DC.
I'm no fan of lifetime deals. Get Soto signed long-term, sure. But things can go wrong, and you can end up being the Angels paying for a useless Pujols and trying to scrounge up enough talent around that and Trout's contract. I'd rather be competitive year in and year out than be the Angels.
I honestly think the moves Rizzo made this off-season were by and large soft-rebuild moves. Hoping to luck into the playoffs, not mortgaging the future, see what happens with Keiboom/Garcia/Robles.
But I feel like this is too much of a half measure. I'd rather the team do a harder reset this season to ensure the next few years of Turner/Soto/Strasburg/Corbin are ACTUALLY competitive. Cut the payroll, trade for prospects, and get this team ready to compete in subsequent years. Otherwise we're going to consistently be an 85-win team and that's no fun.
I agree with Cautiously Pessimistic. The moves this off-season feel somewhat half-hearted. Roll the dice, try to get lucky on a wild-card spot in Max's last year on the big contract, and then move forward. I just wish I felt like it was worth it to see what happens with Kieboom and Garcia -- I think at this point Robles is what he is. I am just not at all confident about Kieboom.
I think a harder reset would be better as well. Max's big deal was absolutely worth it, you still have time on the Strasburg and Corbin contracts. I just think they have allowed too many holes to remain (I was going to say fester, but it's really only been one year so that felt extreme) and they don't have the prospects to fill those holes through trades or promotion. But I also wonder what assets they would even have to do a hard rebuild, at least with an expected return to contention during the low-cost Turner and Soto years. It just feels like after basically a decade of solid roster building, the late years bullpen mismanagement is going to drive them into a longer re-build than they might have had to do otherwise.
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