We're halfway through the season and the Nats are garbage. They are 1-12 against the Marlins, which luckily for the NL East doesn't matter because the Marlins are themselves bad (and also a bit unlucky) so they aren't kocking on the door of anything that six more wins against the Nats can get them. The Nats have scored 32 runs in those 13 games or about 2.5 per which is pathetic.
Ultimately we have to wonder how bad can it get. The Nats are on pace for 58 wins. They have a harder schedule in the second half than the first. They are likely to trade away some good players (Bell, Cruz, a reliever or two if they can) making themselves worse. Soto got hurt and any injury with him is going to be treated very conservatively (as it should be). How many runs could a lineup like this score?
- Thomas RF
- Ruiz C
- Garcia SS
- Hernandez LF
- Barrera DH
- Adams 1B
- Robles CF
- Adrianza 3B
- Fox 2B
Answer? Not Many! There's a non-zero chance that group would end up with no one with double digit homers. OK Thomas playing everyday is likely to hit 15 or so but after him the likely end totals are 6, 7, 10, let's say 7, 12, 2, 0, and 0. Doesn't take much from there to see no one over 10.
The starters won't change but when you have a league worst 5.56 ERA from them that's to be expected. At least we'll see some Cole Henr... hurt you say? Huh Tetreault was the next best starter in high majors (seriously - but to be fair to Henry it wasn't close. Henry is good. And to be honest Cavalli is the next after him but isn't doing great so you let his young self figure it out) so I don't know what would be next. The guys that are decent are high A guys. You can't go from there to the majors. God not Jefry Rodriguez again, please.
Ok NOW I'd forgive Davey for having that above team win 4 out of every 10. Of course it's Davey so they'd only win 2-3 out of every 10 but hey whatever. You guys like him.
Eh onto the league quick perusing so I don't take up a post about it
AL
Yankees are running away and the Sox/Jays/Rays are all in the playoff hunt and it's going to be at least two of them so that's going to be fun. Astros are safe. Twins will have to hold on. Other guys are hoping someone gets beat up out of the AL East trio so they can sneak into the playoffs.
NL
Dodgers are putting some space between them and Padres again and you'd figure they'd keep it. Brewers have a small lead over Cards. Mets holding off a Braves charge. That's probably your playoff teams, though Philly does have a chance. They do keep playing the Nats! Giants aren't out of it either and have two trash teams to play.
Draft Lottery
There's a solid three maybe four that look to be separated in 2023, but you gotta play the games. There isn't one generational prospect. The Nats are very very bad, but they aren't the worst. Both the Reds and As have worse records. How they will do is up in the air but the Reds probably have a decent chance of passing the Nats even if they don't try. Their division is not strong. The Athletics I'm not sure. Don't count out the Royals though at ending up last. I feel they have a lot of selling to do. Overall I like the Nats chances of staying in that Top 3-4
14 comments:
And . . . Rizzo's and Davey's options for 2023 were picked up by the Nats. (Given the state of the organization--terrible farm system, club sale uncertainty, etc.--there was really no alternative, I suppose.)
Yeah - that's not really much to talk about. If they weren't picked up that would be news. It would mean likely the sale is in place.
If you take out their games against one another, the Marlins and Nats have essentially the same record (28-41 for the Nats, 26-39 for the Marlins). A sample of 13 games is pretty small, but what is it about them?
Just curious of everyone’s opinion of a draft lottery. In other sports the number 1 pick is typically pretty important, but the way MLB works do you think this really moves the needle at all?
Since talking about the Nats right now is painfully difficult because there’s really not a whole lot to discuss, just wanted to get the opinion of our favorite Nats blogger and the best Nats community in town on how much the number 1 pick really helps an organization in the draft. Does the number 1 pick really matter?
Personally I don’t think it does very much. Sure every once in a while you have your can’t miss prospects, but overall it seems like the draft is a pretty big crapshoot. What are your thoughts?
As you noted, unless there is a superstar prospect (e.g. Harper, Strasburg), the MLB draft is a crap shoot. Here is a complete list of overall number one picks: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_first_overall_Major_League_Baseball_draft_picks
The last "star" player taken #1 overall was Dansby Swanson, in 2015. Gerritt Cole and Carlos Correa were number one overall picks in the two years after Strasburg. So, there are a fair amount of stars coming from the number one pick. And a lot of failures, too.
What I find discouraging about the Nats is that, with the exception of Garcia, there doesn't seem to be anyone in the minor league system who can hit for average, let alone power.
I'd second JD and PF, seems like there's always a good amount of MLB talent in the first round, it's just not always clear which players those are. Hell, Trout was a compensation pick
2016's #1 overall pick is playing against the Nats tonight: Mickey Moniak.
Draw your own conclusions about the value of lottery picks in baseball.
But two years earlier, Home Run Schwarber was picked 4th over all.
The best conclusion is no conclusion.
Does Vegas have a line on which game will be the Nats' 100th loss?
An interesting article idea: Which is the worst Nats team ever? How would such an analysis be done? Record? Total team WAR?
Discounting the first 4 or 5 expansion years, this one by any metric.
1976 Expos are the limbo stick, I think. Of course, that team had Dawson, Valentine, Rogers and Parrish already called up and more Team of the 80s Types on the way
New MLB prospect rankings came out... I kinda want to throw them out, but also not kind to the Nats.
Unless there's some kind of morale victory for finishing strong, give me the #1 pick. Bryce was a one-off, but there are plenty of clear #1s who emerge as in two years before the draft (Strasburg, Cole/Bauer, etc.).
@Anonymous 3:10
Never mind the rankings, the Nats aren't kind to the Nats.
Be prepared for at least another 2 to 3 years of what we're currently seeing on the field.
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