Boring boring boring. Man, being bad is boring.
SP - (Strasburg?), Corbin, Williams, Gray, Gore, Cavalli.
Questions - (1) Is Strasburg able to pitch or not? If he is, and he's close to normal, the rotation would take a more natural state with an ace on top, a couple of innings eaters / ok pitchers (Corbin - one hopes - and Williams respectively), and young guys battling it out for the last spots. Without him you force the ok guys to be the aces and all the young guys are slotted in to start. The general sense is that no Strasburg is not ok, so whether this year is passable or not will come down to question 2. (2) Will the young guys be any good? Gray has flashed potential but has flashed more problems. Cavalli is a guy people are starting to not feel good about. Gore was a can't miss guy until he got hurt and began missing. The chances all three hit are next to none. But two would still go a long way to providing stability they'll need with the 5th spot undefined and Corbin a huge question mark on whether he can even remain in the rotation.
Pen - Rainey (closer), Finnegan (setup), Harvey, Espino, Edwards Jr, Ramirez, Thompson, probably Francisco Perez because everyone I named so far is RH.
(1) Who ends up closer for most of the year? The Nats like Rainey. And him as the closer makes Rizzo's trade for him more of a win than if he's the 7th inning guy. But he'll be out most of the year recovering from surgery. Finnegan was better last year and is projected to close. You know I like Harvey the best.
1B / DH - Dom Smith / Joey Meneses
(1) Who's playing what? Neither is great at first but Dom is signed to the contract and says he's more comfortable at first base. So he'll likely start there. But if he struggles and Joey doesn't and Joey wants to play there they could flip flop eventually. Or if Dom is a butcher in the field. (2) How real is Joey's 2022? Meneses hit like a superstar for two months. Flash in the plan is likely but that doesn't mean he's going to be bad. It just means he settles somewhere below superstar. Of course bad is possible. It's a huge question mark from a guy that hasn't shown consistency in the minors to have you believe anything
2B - Luis Garcia
(1) Can Garcia make a step up at the plate? He's going to put the bat on the ball. Can he walk a little more, or hit for a little more power and take himself from useful starter to good player? (Along with the pen and Ruiz, Garcia is the least questionable question for 2023)
SS - CJ Abrams
(1) Who is CJ Abrams really? Is he the top prospect with a solid bat, good eye, with the ability to hold down SS who if he developed a little power and is allowed to use his speed could be a star? Or is he a slap hitting major leaguer who the Nats will keep on a leash on the basepaths and lacks the fundamentals to not be a negative at the demanding shortstop position? It's anyone's guess
3B - Jeimer Candelario
(1) Was last year a fluke? For his career no one was really excited about Candelario but looked like he could be a decent major leaguer and for a couple seasons in Detroit he was. But last year was a mess. He was hurt a bit, he seemed to change his approach at the plate. He's at the age guys decline and he still looked bad in the Domician Winter League, even taking into account no one hits there. Another flier that could swing wildly, but failure here wouldn't matter as much as with Gore or Abrams.
OF Thomas / Robles / Dickerson
(1) How long do Dickerson and Robles hold on to their jobs? Face it Robles career is on life support and the only reason he's still starting for the Nats is the team's great fear that another team will fix him and make him useful. But the tension is real and it's not helping a guy who was probably set with outsized expectations to start. The bar is pretty low for him- field well and don't hit too bad - but he hasn't reached it for a few years. Dickerson has basically been an average bat for three years now and given he's pretty trash in the field he needs to keep that up to make playing him worthwhile. It's another "not a big ask" and it's asking for just repeating what has been done instead of returning but Dickerson is 34 now. (2) Will anyone push them? They love to tell you about Alex Call who if nothing else, and that may be true, has a great eye. Vargas is just a guy but that may be better than what they put out there. Hassell could have a hot start and if so, why hold him back with guys like Garcia, Gore and Abrams already in the lineup? There's no commitment to these guys as prospects or long term pieces so any hot AAA start would be cause for "why not try it"
C Ruiz
(1) Can Ruiz hit better? Similar to Garcia Ruiz is set at his position now and has been worth starting thanks to some decent hitting for average. Also similar he could use some patience or pop improvement. Unsimilar to Garcia, Ruiz is actually a good catcher. Which means a slight improvement with the bat could make him an All-Star type player for the tough position.
8 comments:
Hey, Strasburg has resumed throwing! But of course anything positive that they get from him at all would be gravy at this point.
The rest of the article is more of Harper's usual "glass half empty/has a crack in it" take. With the added swipe of simply assuming that fear is the only reason that the Nationals hang onto Robles. At this point Robles is a placeholder; he's cheap and plays good defense for a team that is trying to nurture young pitchers. You can say that there are question marks about Meneses without saying that he was inconsistent in the minors. When I look at his minor league numbers they are pretty consistent. Just not spectacular. I guess that Candelario is at the age that guys can start to decline. But he just turned 29 in November; he's not 32. The curve just isn't that steep yet. Also I would argue that he was more than a "decent" major leaguer in 2020 and 2021. In 2020 he put up 1.5 rWAR in a 60 game season, which prorates to slightly over 4 WAR in a full season, then did go out and put up 4.1 WAR in a full 2021 season. He did about the same by fWAR FWIW (5.8 fWAR over the two seasons vs. 5.6 rWAR). A 4 WAR player is a good major leaguer. Except in NY talk radio circles, of course. The larger point is, of course, that this is not likely to be a good team. We're discussing just how bad they will be. This season, and likely much of next season, are going to be extended auditions for who will be part of the next contending Nationals team.
Speaking of the future. If Hassell has a hot start, it's going to be in AA not AAA. An optimistic timetable for him is a midseason promotion to AAA and, if he continues to rake, a September callup. If anyone's going to push Dickerson or Robles for playing time it's not going to be Hassell. Alex Call might push one of those guys, but I think that it's at least as likely that Stone Garrett does. Like Meneses Garrett has hit better at higher levels as he's moved through the minors. If you're going to get salty about his K% in the majors (32.1%) you have to acknowledge that that was SSS (84 PA), that his K% at lower levels was solid, and of course that the K% was in a batting line of .276/.309/.539/.848, good for a 136 OPS+/131 wRC+. He was DFA'd by AZ, but I would argue that is because AZ has a pretty crowded outfield. Consider him a cheap lotto ticket (as does Nicklaus Gaut of Fangraphs (https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/nicklaus-gauts-2023-outfielder-ranks/).
I don’t think I understand why people are falling so hard on Cavalli. He played okay last year in his time in AAA. Not spectacular, but he had great games and a few stinkers. He got better as the season progressed and put up better outings to close the minor league season than he did at the start. I think his AAA showing was fine. I don’t think I’ve ever been super excited that he’d be staff ace, but a perfectly fine 2-3 starter is more than fine. Yes, I want to see them find a true ace. But it won’t be gray, probably h it cavalli either. But could we see them as 2 & 3 or 3 & 4? I could. I guess I don’t have quite the same doom and gloom as you do Harper.
And why is a 12 inning sample size after Gore’s return from injury representative of his performance in the upcoming season? His season in the Majors was good for the Padres until the Rockies REALLY figured him out. Afterwards he had a couple good games and a couple BAD ones right before going out. He’s definitely NOT good in relief. Yikes. But he had quite a few nice starts over the course of the season.
I feel like your assessment of the starting pitchers is WAY fickle, and maybe a bit too negative. Except for SS, you are thinking he might actually pitch this year?? I have considered him retired for quite a while and count Corbin as an automatic loss. But I’m hopeful for the development of the 3 youngsters….
And don’t forget Cole Henry should be back for spring training.
I don't think anyone is exactly disappointed that none of our young starters look likely to become an ace. Almost no starters are aces and even fewer come into the league fully formed.
The disappointment is that they are looking more like 4/5s than 2/3s. Zips has their projected ERAs at 4.17, 4.28 and 4.60 for Gore, Cavalli and Gray respectively. That's not unplayable, but even if that's your 3/4/5, that's a weakness on a playoff team. I think there was some hope that the trio would be a solid 2/3/4 and they're currently looking a far cry worse than that.
I'm also disappointed that we don't have better chances for prospects getting called up this year. I mean, Hassell coming up in September seems like decent thing to hope for. And then Alu getting a cup of coffee after we trade Candelario could be exciting. But that's pretty much it, and I'm worried the team will end up trying Kieboom again instead if they can find any justification for it. And that's it. 2024 might be more fun if folks take steps forward, but this year is going to be pretty boring. Bad and boring.
By the way, Zips has Alu projected for more WAR than any other player the Nats have under contract, narrowly edging out Ruiz and Candelario. It pegs him for a league average bat (103 wRC+) and solidly plus infield defense, good for 3.1 WAR/600. The error bars on that are wild, I'm sure, but it's something to keep an eye on.
Obviously the Nats are trying to bottom out the same way they did prior to landing Strasburg and Harper (and also the Lerners don’t want to spend anymore money. ). So I’m picturing the most NAAATs thing possible happening: Strasburg and Corbin somehow regaining form enough to make this team competitive into the All-Star break, carried by the rotation (with Cavalli coming up and eating innings alongside mixed outings from Gray and I dunno what else) only for the team to sink into mediocrity after the trade deadline comes and goes with no additional bats. Worst outcome for long term rebuild thanks to only having the eighth worst-record and being sort of alive for playoffs come trade time.
Also might be the most interesting outcome for this season?
Why can't Harvey close while Rainey recovers?
GCX - because they like Finnegan, he's been here longer and he's "homegrown"
These aren't the best reasons but it's a flawed "position" anyway. Arguably better for the team if Harvey is a floating 8th inning ISH guy and he really is better.
How about a post entitled "How Bad Will the Nats Suck?" Last year they were the absolute worst. Despite the loss of Soto and Bell, I don't think they will remain the worst in baseball. A few things are bound to go right this year.
So the question is --- Do they jump 1, 2, 5 or 10 places up in the overall standings. The fanboy optimist likes to see a big jump. Possible, I guess. More likely a marginal gain.
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