Another hallmark of spring* is me telling you guys that we have to ignore the early numbers put up by players. Unlike Spring Training these ARE meaningful but they are also small sample size issues and everyone has runs where they go like 1-12 or give up 7 runs in 3 innings. Happens to Mike Trout, happens to Jacob deGrom, the difference is it happens to guys like that a lot less. So what you really are shows across the whole season.
I'm not going to bother to even look individual Nats stats up yet. Give it a few more days. I will say I did like what I saw of Gore and I hope that isn't just a random good start because well let's get to the team stats.
Even team stats are iffy for a longer than the 4 games we've been at it but the Nats aren't showing us anything we didn't know. As feared, they might be the worst hitting team in baseball. They are currently 29th ahead of the Tigers in OPS. We didn't know where power would come from. They only have 2 homers (two teams have 1). On the plus side we knew they wouldn't walk but it hasn't been OMG SO BAD so far. (The Dbacks have walked twice! As a team!). They won't run though (0SBs so far - not the only team)
The SP questions remain. Gore did look good, but Gray looked real bad, Corbin looked like Corbin, and Williams didn't look much better. The RP did seem ok. Finnegan had a rough go, but the guys that weren't the last names in the pen look fine.
Defense does look better even counting Abrams error filled Opening Day.
The Nats are 4 games into a season where they are expected to be non-contenders trying to avoid being the worst team in baseball. So far we're on that track.
*Not to be confused with Hallmark of Spring - their set of romance movies set during Spring time like "Blooms of Love" and "Easter Dreams"
2 comments:
This is all 100% correct, Harper. Far too soon for the numbers themselves to mean anything. But I am taking a few faint signals despite the SSS.
I am encouraged by Gore's start. That's killer stuff from a lefty and I think there's a plausible path for him to improve command and be a true ace in 2-3 years. Even great pitchers usually need a year or two in the majors to put the pieces together (unlike great hitters, who are usually pretty great as soon as they come up).
I am encouraged by the patience in particular from Ruiz and Robles. Results are all noise at his point, but you can see that they've changed their approach. The question is whether they'll be able to stick with it over the season and actually improve their results in the long run. (Also, in Robles's case, whether it will be enough. With his lack of power, even the adjustment to stay in the zone will just be met with the counter adjustment of pitchers throwing strikes, and I'm not certain Robles will produce enough in that equilibrium. But, still, "not certain" is way way better than "guaranteed to be so terrible you can't carry the bat even from an elite defender".)
I am discouraged by Gray's start. I mean, new pitches are just barely above "the best shape of his life" but I was letting the spring results get my hopes up a little and that was a hard game to watch.
Non-contenders trying to avoid being the worst team in baseball. Exactly.
However, Candelario making another difficult play, hitting D Smith on a bullseye so the guy didn't even have to move his glove. That was nice, something we haven't seen for a while.
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