In 2023 the Nats went ahead with a four pronged pitching plan
Prong 1 : Let Corbin cook. He's getting paid too much to get rid of. The Nats need innings. Just throw him out there every 5th day. As far as the goals were set, this worked. Corbin was bad, but not bad enough to be too bad for a bad team's rotation. He threw 30 more innings that last year and pitched to a less horrific ERA than either 2021 or 2022.
Prong 2 : Give Trevor Williams the chance to start and trade him if he's any good. This is where the two-year deal was supposed to help bring dividends enticing other teams with another cheap year of good pitching. This one totally didn't work as Williams took the mantle as the Nats worst everyday starter - not an easy thing to do when everyone is throwing to an FIP close to 5.00.
Prong 3 : Let the kids loose. Gray and Gore were allowed to be basically full time starters with the hope they would blossom. They did not. Gray looked like he might and he really did cut down on the homers this season. Unfortunately at the cost of everything else. It would sort of catch up with him at the end of the year but good luck got him an AS appearance and a lower than deserved ERA. Gore pitched better but it's hard to say the Nats were happy with the results which were firmly middle of the road. No aces here yet.
Prong 4 : ???? The Nats originally went with Chad Kuhl who was too terrible to stick around. Joan Adon was also given his 19th try at being a starter only to fail again*. They ended up landing on Jake Irvin who was usable. He was a throw back to the bad old days when you'd see Tim Redding or Jason Bergmann and say "that wasn't too bad" and accept it because there were bigger problems. But he was perfectly ok for a bad team's rotation.
The Nats had one big loss, Williams' disappointment leading to no trade, and no big surprises. Young teams hope for big surprises so overall this was a bad season for the starting staff, even if it was pretty much as expected given the talent
Presumed Plan :
Same prongs, different season. The big difference will be that there is a line of "ok, I'd like to see that guy get some time" types in the minors who should (will?) be given chances if they shine in the lower ranks. Rutledge, Henry, Parker, Herz, Saenz.
Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : The contracts say Corbin and Williams are here. The plan says Gore and Gray are here. The fifth spot will remain a ? with Jake Irvin given the first shot but the goal of 2024 is setting up 2025 and Irvin, William, maybe even Corbin should be on short leashes because they need to find good pitchers fast. If they don't find them internally they'll have to pay for them.
Why won't they pay for them? Because they are still working out if 2025 is going to be a run at bigger and better things or if this rebuild is a washout.
My Take : Sign a good pitcher. Let Williams and Corbin go.
This is about the future clear and simple now. Neither of these two guys is about that. So why are they here? To eat innings? To save relievers? If you bring in a guy to take their place and he isn't managing to do those things, replace him with another. It might be tough. You might find no one. But it makes more sense than sending these two out for 40% of the games through the end of July.
As for the good pitcher. There are a couple top notch guys they won't get in Yamamoto and Snell. I'd totally make a sell the farm run at Yamomoto but chances are everyone else will. So what's the other choice? I suppose Jordan Mongomery and security. He'll still cost a pretty penny but he'll give you the performance you need. Will it be another Corbin contract? Yeah something like that but because he's not coming off his best year he'll cost a little cheaper. Look you have to take chances. The Corbin deal didn't work out long term but it did give them a title. With no playoffs to stretch Jordan's arm he could expect to be a little more durable.
As for Gore and Gray - they start. You hope they get better. There isn't much more than that to say. For each guy I mentioned as an up and comer, these two had more impressive resumes. If they can from a solid 2-3-4 combo the Nats can work around that, finding/signing an ace and another mid-rotation guy from what's at hand. They are more in the 3-4-5 range. I'm more of a Gore fan than Gray (better stats and prospect evaluation) but always willing to give Gray the benefit of turning the corner when he looks good. I'm a sucker. What happens if they don't get any better? I'm not sure. They probably still both remain in the rotation but it's hard to envision a playoff rotation forming in this situation. It will take a big commitment (re: $$$$)
*To be fair to Joan he really isn't much worse that any of the guys that started but with bad luck and no pedigree.
14 comments:
At some point running Corbin out every turn becomes (in addition to the textbook version of the sunk-cost fallacy) a sort of chicken-egg proposition. Are we sending Corbin out because the Nats aren't any good, or are they not any good because they keep sending Corbin out? I fully agree they're going to have to pay for pitching.
If you’re going to ditch both Wiliams and Corbin, they’re going to need to sign two starting pitchers.
Why "Sign a good pitcher"? The Nats have plenty of starters in the 3 –4–5 range. They lack aces. It's not likely the Nats are going to blow $150 million or much more on a pitcher who could be an ace. For one thing, they are not ready to compete for the big prize. This is not a good time to go big. Moreover, they still have Strasburg's amazing contract to keep paying off for three more years. Third, the only young picture they could get and spend a big bucks and still have plenty of growth for the future is Yamamoto. I don't see the Nats stretching themselves for him. But it would be great if they did! All the other possibilities for number one or number two starters are either past their primes or moving quickly past their primes. You don't get much for $40 million or so.
Meant to say "pitcher."
Possible 3-4-5 guys already on board: Gore (who has potential to rise higher), Gray, Cavalli, Corbin, Williams, Irvin, Rutledge and maybe a minor league guy will show promise during the season. And yes, add Yamamoto, age 25, if possible.
Anon - If I never look at the box score did Corbin give up 8 runs or only 4?
John C - possibly? You can run 1 rotation spot through whoever, teams do that all the time. You can run 2 rotations spots through whoever, this happens and it's not ideal but injuries happen, or guys fail and teams make it work. But THREE rotation spots through whoever would be a nightmare. So not signing 2 would suggest no injuries or set-backs from the one signing, Gray and Gore. Which is definitely possible but yes I'm living on the edge.
I do think eventually they would need that 2nd starter after evaluating they got nothing.
EdDC - They almost certainly need pitching for the long run so if you are looking at competing say 2025-2030 it doesn't matter much if you sign that starter before 2024 or 2025. Also you can't guarantee you'll get the guys you want when you want them. Next year does look pretty strong with SP but all it takes is an injury and a couple guys not going into FA and suddenly the market is tight again.
I don't see Corbin wasting a valuable starting slot, unless the Nationals pick up two pitchers in the offseason who are demonstrably better than Corbin. Pitchers (except Corbin) get hurt. Only Gray and Gore are proven MLB-quality. (Unproven: 4-5 quality, 3-4 quality, or 2-3 quality?) Next year will provide plenty of chances to test out some promising AA or AAA pitchers, or even Joan Adon. Corbin won't deprive them of any, and Williams can join the relief corps.
I’m in the sign 2 sp camp and believe that’s where we can see greatest improvement overall - next year and beyond.
Push Williams to bullpen asap and perhaps Corbin too.
I also believe Ward has greater chance than Herz or Parker to get called up as our #5 sp.
Solidify sp depth and improve net pitching quality from 5 to 4 era and see where that gets us.
And Rizzo weighs in on nats supposed priorities - sounds as if corner power is prioritized over sp’s this year. So much for my views.
IMO, that also means another year where nats aren’t competitive.
They are going to wait until the market sets itself (Snell, E-Rod, Montgomery) and then go for bargain bin reclamation projects like Alex Wood, Martin Perez, Brad Keller, Jack Flaherty, Zach Davies, Spencer Turnbull, Noah Syndegaard, Vince Velasquez, etc.
@anon
With improved corner power but no pitching fixes, we'll at least get to see some doubles and homers in 9-4 losses instead of a bunch of singles in 9-2 losses. That's more fun I guess.
Corbin is fine as a 4/5. Sure, he's a pretty bad pitcher. But he hasn't missed more than 1 or 2 starts in the past 7 non-COVID seasons. He pitched 180 innings last year, tied for 10th in the NL. That's important, because he eats innings and saves the bullpen arms.
Williams is nothing more than a middle reliever. He failed miserably as a starter.
Yes, this is a Nats blog. But whether the Nats find a few placeholders for a not-very-good 2024 team is immaterial and inconsequential.
The real news--Hey, now, Harper--is that Juan Soto is almost certainly going to where, deep in our hearts, we always knew he belonged: the New York Yankees.
Big Day for Harper!
Corbin's role is to eat innings one more season *unless/until we have someone better that looks ready*. Right now it's pretty hard to say the Nats DO have someone better than Corbin that looks ready.
As Harper noted, we have a few potential middle/back of the rotation starters who *MAY* be ready during the season. But unless one or more of them really light it up in Spring Training it's hard to see Herz (AA), Rutledge (4.44 ERA in 11 AAA starts) or Parker (4.72 ERA in 25 AA/AAA starts, only three in AAA) as ready to put into the Nationals rotation from Opening Day in 2024.
There's also Cavalli, who the Nats hope to have back for a few starts in Aug-Sep 2024 to be ready for 2025.
But to avoid seeing Trevor Williams start on a regular basis (a guy who made Corbin look...well, not good, but better than TW) Nats will need to sign at least one decent potential starter.
And the chances of going without significant injury to Gore, Gray, Irvin, Corbin and (whomever is #5) for a full year is...not high. So yes, the Nats need to bring in another starting pitcher or two.
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