Michael J Soroka... wait a second... Hey it is J! Well actually J G, Michael John Graydon Soroka.
Soroka was a top prospect as a minor leaguer and lived up to the hype in his first full season. His 2.68 ERA was a bit of a mirage but a 21 year old throwing to a 3.25-3.50 ERA? In 2019? That's great and it nearly won him the Rookie of the Year.
But here's the problem. In his rookie year he started 29 games and threw 174 innings. In the next FIVE years he's started 18 and has thrown 126. That would be a worrying number if we were talking his average year. We're not. We're talking combined. And they haven't been good.
Now we'll flip back to the good. He DID get better last year. More innings, fewer hits, fewer homers, more Ks. It wasn't close to a full season but it's the right trend coming off a two year injury hiatus
Flip. But one thing did get worse - his walk rate. It jumped to 5.0 BB/9!
Flip. The Nats starting pitching surprised in 2024 by not walking anyone and not giving up homers. The hits came bc they didn't strike anyone out but with few people on base and the ball staying in the park the opponent had to string together hits and the runs were harder to come by. This is EXACTLY the type of pitcher Mike Soroka was when he was good.
Flip. While he got better giving up homers last year, he still gave up a good number of them and he gives up a lot more fly balls now. If he is a flyable pitcher now there's only so much one can do with that. See Josiah Gray.
Soroka is a gamble. Do the Nats need a gamble? I don't know. Certainly not as the best arm they sign or even the second best but after that? Sure! Gambles are fun! If it's a secondary move hitting one usually helps a lot more than missing one hurts. But is this a secondary move? We can't answer that yet.
If Soroka is not one of the best 2 SP brought in this off-season then I think this is an ok deal. Not great. Seems pretty expensive compared to the likely results. But ok. He was a Nats type of pitcher before getting hurt. He's vaguely returning to some sort of form. Maybe you get lucky
If Soroka IS one of the best 2 SP Brough in this off-season than this simply isn't enough. It's a gamble then not only on Soroka but that everyone else in the rotation doesn't need more help. I don't like that gamble. If you are ready, you shouldn't need good breaks to get you winning, but bad breaks to get you losing.
3 comments:
I like this signing and here’s why. You keep the kids on the rotation to see what they can do, start Cavalli in the minors with no rush. If Soroka does well and so does Cavalli then you have a good problem on your hands. One struggles then you go with the other in the rotation. Both struggle…look elsewhere (Josiah will be back eventually too). Soroka can always go back to the pen or be used like Spencer Turnbull did for Phillies. All in all I like it as a low risk move.
In addition to Sherriff’s comment, I’ll add that this move also makes sense as a reasonably priced (1/$9 instead of MLBTR projected 2/$14 makes this deal one of very few roughly “on target” projected cost deals in what has proven to be a red hot pitching market) way to get at least one starter. And if he flops there his bullpen performance is a reasonable Plan B for one year commitment.
Which makes this signing a way to get at least one (as Harper notes, Nats likely need two) starting pitcher while saving overall $$$$$ to sign 1-2 true middle of the order bats for 1B and/or 3B/corner OF. And maybe another starter. Which the team absolutely does need to do to aim for .500 and potential WC relevance.
So does this move the needle by itself? No. But does it potentially make a lot of sense in a larger pattern? Arguably yes. We shall see if it works!
I think you all are dreaming to think the Lerners are paying for any top pitchers beyond this. Guarantee it certainly won’t be two starters better than this or I’ll eat my HAT too. They were pretending to “wait” till the time was right to save money and just fooling everybody and kicking the can. Gonna be the next Tampa bay. I mean they tried to sell the team, they have no interest in a winning team.
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