Yesterday we talked about Crews (well not really - more honestly we talked very briefly about rankings and psychology) and you can go back and read that. But the Nats did have four other guys on these Top 100 lists. Let's talk about them
James Wood : I guessed he'd fall out of the Top 10 and he did in one place not the other. It will be close in MLB's list and likely not close (easily IN the Top 10) in Fangraphs, but we'll see. Still the takeaway is He's a Top 15+ ish player. Why in general is everyone still so high on James?
Take a look at this.
For those too lazy to click it's the Eastern League leaders in HRs. James is not 1, he's tied for 6th but that's not the only number to look at. What's also interesting is the PA and Age. Out of the Top 29 (those with 13 or more homers). James is only 21st in PA and he's the 2nd youngest player here. So no, he's not generating the power of say Tyler Hardman or Luke Ritter or Ben Rice (hey two Yankees!) but those guys are 24, 26, and 24 respectively (awwww, well at least the Yankees are the 24yos). Wood has far more promise to improve. Guys slightly older like Colt Keith and Coby Mayo also generate more power but here's where things not in these numbers kick in. Those are both oafish types that the teams are hoping can stick at 3rd instead of being forced into a 1B/DH role*. Wood is an overall talent with the potential to stick in centerfield. To bring it back to the Yankees, think Aaron Judge. If you ever watch him play OF he's so much better than you'd think given his size. Wood is like that. Wood is also, if not a better fielder, just faster giving him a weapon on the basepaths if teams choose to use it.
That's a TON of good. What's the catch that keeps him from being a Top 5 guy? It's the 39 walks and 124 Ks. That's not the worst walk rate, but it's not a plus and that K rate is pretty bad. So that hangs over him in the "is he going to be a useful all-over Dave Kingman, which would still be very good, or something really special" way. We probably won't know though until he gets to the majors because nothing but the Ks are holding him back and they aren't holding him back that much. You want to see what this kid can do right now.
Brady House : I thought he'd move up a bunch and he barely budged. Well I was wrong here because he was barely budging from MID-SEASON 2023 lists. He had fallen off 2023 lists entirely at the start because of his mostly injury related issues in 2022 and jumped back on based on what he had done starting 2023. It's easy to forget because he's been around longer but he's even younger than Wood, who turned 21 at the tail end of last season, and will play nearly half of this year as a 20 year old. He hit at every level he played in last year (A, A+, AA) showing himself to have .300+ potential.
But his K-rate and BB-rate in AA resembled Woods. And unlike Wood he's not the greatest talent. The raw power is not there. He was a usable at SS but everything (size, speed) was saying move him to 3B to take advantage of his plus plus arm**. This knocks him down a couple pegs. The ceiling for House would still be "All-Star" but the ceiling on Wood is "all-timer". Note please I'm saying "ceiling" here. Don't get ahead of yourselves.
Cade Cavalli : basically he's here because he was here last year and got hurt? I have to think MLB will drop him out. I get why they all liked him going into last year. Very solid AAA numbers. Really keeps the ball in the park. A bit wild with not as much Ks as you'd like to see but history shows potential for that to improve. A guy with a great chance to find a spot for a few years in a major league rotation. But getting hurt throws that all into question. Let's hope he bounces right back.
So while we curiously argue about Crews (and Skenes) currently not looking like the best-est in the draft class, don't get caught up with it too much. Crews should be good. Wood still looks like he should be good. House has potential to be good and should be usable. The offensive pieces are mostly there. They have usable in Garcia and usable with potential in Abrams and usable with potential at the plate let's hope he's not a bust with the glove in Ruiz. This gives them a very solid core. Even if none hit high you can buy a couple of very productive bats*** and this is a very good offense, or you can probably just play it out with what you'll have in a couple years and be close to average. That's not a guarantee - you can look at the 2023 Tigers to see a "made reasonable choices, developed ok, but didn't work out enough" scenario on offense - but I can't make a complaint of how the Nats set themselves up at the plate here.
*Mayo especially because his arm is a rocket.
**To re-emphasize Mayo's arm here, everyone loves House's arm. Mayo's is seen as better. Like literally maybe the best arm in the minors. But House fields better and it don't matter how good that arm is if you aren't getting to enough balls.
*** Now can you do that AND buy arms? Because they'll NEED to buy arms.
10 comments:
Everyone is still very very young. That's what partially gives me hope. But then I remember how poor the Nats player development is and I think to myself "I sure hope these guys are enlisting private coaches over the winter". It would be great for Crews and Wood to be top-10 OFs anchoring a lineup with a number of solid above average players filling out the rest. But I'm not going to hold my breath.
And as you allude to, the bigger issue at the end of the day is the rotation. Gray's ceiling (in my expert opinion) is probably a #3, Gore probably a #2, Cavalli probably more like Gray than Gore. That means you still need to go out and get an ace and a #2 most likely to have a rotation that can carry you into the playoffs
I'm not sold that you need an ace. Just to illustrate, suppose you hired 5 #3 guys and a pair of #4s to keep in AAA as depth. Knowing you were very likely to keep the opponents under 4 runs through 6, with a capable-to-good offense 1-9, is going to win a lot of games.
Given the long playoff series and the long season, there are going to be fewer cases where you need that one hoss to carry you as much as you're just going to need guys to keep you in the game. Hell, look at the Nats 2019 run -- the heroes were Corbin, Anibal Sanchez's innings-eating, and Joe Ross' spot start for Scherzer, who really wasn't his usual self that October.
Even look at the 2024 Nats. If you could add 2 more Josiah Grays, or add Max Scherzer in his prime, which one would you take? In one case, you get 60 more games in which the Nats are going to be competitive, and in the other, you get 35 chances to see a no-hitter or a guy with a broken nose throw 20Ks and hit a double, plus 25 more days hoping Jackson Rutledge is still better than Joan Adon.
Sure, the latter choice is more entertaining, but the former will definitely give you a better record.
In other news, I wonder if someone can teach Wood some pitch selection. An ISO of 225 is pretty impressive, especially at 20. I know that learning to walk is a skill you either have or you don't, but cutting his K rate by 20% would make a huge difference.
The real hero of the 2019 WS championship run was Stephen Strasburg. He had a lot of help, but he was nails in every round of the playoffs.
@John C
Not really on Harper's topic, but since you brought it up and I just love thinking about it, here are the numbers again. 36.1 innings over 5 starts and 1 relief appearance. 5-0, 1.98 ERA and 2.39 FIP.
What's even more incredible is that 2019 actually increased his career playoff ERA. His career postseason results are a 1.48 ERA and a 2.05 FIP over 55 innings. 71 Ks to 8(!) walks.
A goddamn all time great. 5th ever in playoff ERA (min 40 IP), and second only to Mariano Rivera if you narrow to the last 50 years.
Oafish?
Better than loutish, I suppose.
@Kevin,
When I say a #1 and a #2, I mean a pitcher in the top 30 and a pitcher in the top 60 in the league. Yes that #1 could be a #2 on many teams, or that #2 could be a #3, but I'm just saying there are 30 teams, so 30 #1's and 30 #2's. "Ace" always seems to communicate a top 10 or so pitcher, but the Nats don't need that. Last year, by my "definition", for pitchers with at least 100IP, a #1 would be a 3+ WAR guy, and a #2 would be a 2+ WAR guy. For context, our "all star" Gray put up 1.6, good for 82nd among pitchers with 100+ IP
So yeah, no need to pay a ton for Snell or Montgomery, but getting a Freddy Peralta type and a Dane Dunning type (oh what could have been) would go a long way, and is probably more in line with what you were saying in terms of two more Grays, though obviously I'd want slightly better than that
@Cautiously Pessimistic: on the "oh what could have been" category with Dane Dunning thought process: I'm not giving back the WS trophy. Eaton played a strong role in that.
If you filter out guys who are older for the level (I picked up to 22 as comparable) then Wood jumps toward the top of the list on just about every per PA stat except avoiding SOs. He hits the ball hard, takes his walks, and gets steals. He's a run producer. Given his age and size this is remarkable.
House looks like a masher, but the stats don't yet line up with that. We'll see if he can turn all those hard hits into HRs this year.
I disagree with the idea that a bunch of #3s get the job done. It's possible, but odds are pretty low. In the playoffs, it's mostly their top 4 pitchers versus your top 4. If someone pitches like Stras and the rest do their job, you generally win. #3s get you to the playoffs. Aces win it.
What Quimby says. An ideal playoff team would have a pair of aces, a cold stopper, and an otherwise-respectable pitching staff. The 2019 Nats did it with a pair of aces, Corbin and Sanchez filling roles, and two trustworthy relievers.
It's hard to remember now, given all that has happened since, but Patrick Corbin was more than just filling a role in 2019. He went 14-7, threw a career-high 202 innings, and had the peripherals to back it up: 3.25 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 3.59 xFIP, 1.183 WHIP, and 10.6 K/9. It was good enough for 5.0 rWAR/4.7 fWAR. He finished #11 in the NL CYA voting. He was GOOD.
Of course he was never the same after that. One has to wonder if the 225 innings that he threw in 2019 played a part in the decline. Not giving back the WS title, though.
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