No.
Sorry. Kind of a waste of a blog post.
But in all seriousness there isn't a compelling reason other than "because they are ready" to do this. In the field all positions are covered either by guys they want there or guys they want to look at. While you and me would rather see Crews or Wood* as soon as they are ready, the team wants to maximize value and that means keeping any stars you create from making as much money as they can. Potentially saving that 30 million on that last year is worth a bunch of lost production in a wasted year - who cares what exactly the circumstances will be when you get to that point.
But let's guess anyway on the bats at least. The arms... the less said the better.
Dylan Crews - likely not. While he crushed A-ball, AA humbled him a bit. He did get more hits toward the end but with little of his trademark power. I can't see Spring being compelling enough to overcome this.
James Wood - it's not impossible he'd deserve it and on a contending team he'd get the call. While AA proved to be at least minor turbulence in his rocket to the majors, he also had a good finish including a 9-20 HR 2B last homestand. More importantly he checks off all the needs for the Nats (defense in OF, LH power). If he didn't have all those Ks - a worrying sign for a call up - I'd make him equal chance to the next guy.
Brady House - best chance of the top 10? Brady didn't have an issue with AA outside of a small power dip. 3rd base is pencilled in for Nick Senzel who is probably trash. If the Nats were at all trying he'd likely be up with a solid outing in Spring.
Cade Cavalli - Ok one pitcher. We'll see Cavalli as soon as he's healthy and looks ok but it's doubtful they'll ok an injury return straight to the majors
Elijah Green - No.
Daylen Lile - Also no. He struggled a bit in High A. Struggling in AA but finishing strong? Maybe. Struggling in High A, shouldn't matter if you tear the cover off the ball in Spring.
Yohandy Morales -Another 3B contender and it would be real intersting but he barely played in the minors last year (42 games) and just a handful in AA. I can't see him making it and Brady not regardless of the Spring.
Robert Hassell - A nightmare 2023 means no, even if he's healthy and looks good. They'll want to take it slow.
Are there any "non-propsects" that were both young and did well in AA or AAA.They seem to want Darren Baker to get his chance but I'm not even sure he's Jake Alu so how does he beat him out of spot? Can't carry both. Jordy Barley was thrown to the AAA wolves last year and didn't drown but given how bad his minor league run has been I can't see them putting him in the majors. Jacob Young is already here, the question is if he'll stick (I say sure, why not). Trey Lipscomb, the hotness for a month or so, cooled down a bit and is now in a waiting line behind House and Morales. He could get an early call just because he won't get a late one but I can't see him starting in the majors.
So I'd say there's a puncher's chance for House to make it and Wood could force the issue. I don't think anyone else has a real shot. But I'd bet unless there is a OMG WE HAVE TO HAVE THIS GUY HERE NOW situation they put them all in AAA and try to build some excitement there early.
*Some of you are going to say "I'd rather wait" - I understand. I don't respect the opinion or agree, but I understand. It's years of baseball philosophy ground into you. It's remembering that one time that one prospect was really good AND hit FA a year early AND left AND it mattered and not the tens of times that prospect wasn't any good, or didn't go into FA, or left and it didn't matter.
9 comments:
Your footnote is fair enough, Harper, and I mostly agree with you, but I think you are ignoring actual development concerns.
I mean, we all know the joke about "working on defense", and a lot of these decisions happen right around the service time boundaries, so I don't want to claim honest to god development issues factor in for the majority of cases. But I certainly believe there are some prospects who are good enough to help a team now (say at least 1.0 WAR true talent) but have a higher long term true talent expectation if they spend a season or half a season in the minors working on some particular issue.
Probably for a lot of prospects it doesn't matter much, and there's probably even another small set of folks who would actually benefit from learning on the job in the majors -- steel sharpens steel and so forth -- but there is the enough of a possibility for me that I can't just assume it's always 100% service time when a team holds someone back.
Luis Garcia is someone I think about in this context. We can't know the counterfactual, but I wonder if he would have benefited from a more deliberate pace through the upper minors.
@Anon, I somewhat agree...but not with this organization. Maybe things will improve after there was a lot of house clearing this offseason, but player development has always been an issue. So yeah, theoretically spending more time in the minors to work out issues without the stress of needing to perform and win games would be a good thing (I always think about Kieboom in this context)...but I don't think the Nats have shown that their dev staff are actually helping anything
Also, suppose they have 20-year-old Bryce Harper in AAA. Nothing else on that team is any good - they're not winning the NL East, with him or without him. Keeping him in AAA for 3 weeks to game the service-time clock is fine -- it won't make the difference between making the wild card and not making it, and that's all that matters now. (See the Diamondbacks for an example) And then you get to keep him for another year on the back end, than he'll turn down a giant offer to let Boras have his song and dance, and end up taking less money.
I am probably somewhere between “I’d rather wait” and “Get them up.” If they are currently better than the dross that is filling parts of the roster, then by all means bring them up. If one of them profiles as a potential ROY, bring them up for sure to try to get that extra draft pick. But if it’s just about “learning on the job” I think that can be risky for the long term future of the player. And if it is just about selling tickets and fan engagement, that’s foolish. Just spend money on FAs for that.
It’s hard to believe how much more disappointing this offseason has been than last years. And last years wasn’t good. They are acting like the Marlins and As. It’s so disheartening. Not even trying to get a Canderlario type flip candidate. Just awful.
Anon @ 11:25 - I mean as soon as they are ready to mean just that. If they could use more seasoning I'm fine with that. I'm not sure either Crews or Wood really do from what I've read but I'm not there. We'll have to judge in the moment.
CP - also true. we're starting to lose faith that keeping someone down in the Nats minors can actually help them. I don't know how to feel about that other than to mention the general feeling around baseball of this fact. You'd have to be more of a prospect type to have an real informed opinion.
KR - I say bring him up. I have no idea what'll happen between then and now. That's seven years! They could be the Nashville Nats for all I know!
Anon @ 3:05 - I don't mind the lack of flips even. Candelario worked but didn't bring back much. Cruz flopped. It's whatever. What bothers me is everyone going into the off-season thinking "they clearly need a starter" and them doing nothing at all. I don't know anyone that is ok with this.
I feel like every time the Lerners don't get their way, they just pout a little more and let the team rot. MASN appeal? Fine, defer everyone's salary. Can't find a $10M buyer for naming rights? Fine - no extensions. Can't sell the team? OK, we'll roll out the 1989 Cleveland Indians as soon as someone chips in with a set of whitewalls.
As for Nashville, look on the bright side - you can probably sign up for MASN3 without cable, which would save you a ton of money.
I mean, Candelario brought back Herz. And there may not be such a thing as a pitching prospect, but Herz looks like a gem. I have hime 7th in our system (which is a bit higher than the public evaluators -- BP has him 8th and most seem to have him in the 11-15 range).
I get that these flips are pretty tricky and don't always pan out to any actual value even when you're able to execute the plan, but Candy is not the example I'd use to illustrate that point.
Herz is kind of where the system drops off though. I think he's fine for a return but also not much if that makes sense. Like he should be a non-impact major league relief arm. That's kind of the most likely return.
@Harper - I'm not sure what you mean here, so I'll reply to both interpretations:
1) Cazndelario is the kind of guy who should return a fringe relief arm. If so, then props to Rizzo for getting a guy who looks like a fringe starter, which is about where I'd put Herz given his late-'23 stats. (despite his flaws, Rizzo has a pretty good history of trading for guys who perform above expectations given the trade.)
2) Herz should be a non-impact MLB reliever. I think we'll know a lot more in a few more months. He was young for the level in AA and improved his numbers significantly when he got to Harrisburg. Maybe it's babip, but K rate went up, BB, HR, and AVG all went down. If he can repeat that in AAA for 6 weeks, I'd say he's already a MLB reliever. (especially being a lefty.) And since Jackson Rutledge is the bar to clear to make the rotation....?
Then again, with his funky delivery, maybe we should just send him to Birmingham now before his service clock starts ticking.
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