A lot of them in a lot of ways. Even if the Nats are showing some top level competence - Abrams is probably good! Winker could be a steal! - they are still very shallow and if you start to need the 2nd level or god forbid the 3rd level of the team to perform you are asking for trouble.
Still a win in LA will make it a successful road trip and a sweep by the Dodgers is basically expected and doesn't constitute a disappointment. That's not much of a hurdle.
Gore did look good against the A's, so did Williams, and Jake Irvin. Of course the key to that is the A's themselves. They have the 2nd worst offense in baseball. Around the same as the Mariners who are both well behind the 4th worst offense in baseball. What did we learn? These guys can really beat the guys they should. So if the Nats played 150 games against the White Sox, A's and Mariners they'd really clean up. But they don't. We'll check on the pitchers really at the end of the month.
Well I'll make an exception in the meantime for MY BOY Hunter Harvey has a FIP of 0.11. 0.11!
The NL East is interesting. The Braves got slammed by SP injuries so aren't a powerhouse and I think the Mets and Phillies can both make noise. That's not good for the Nats and I think the Nats remain clearly 4th. But the Marlins are both not good and not trying and I think that combination can really crush a team. The Nats may have a chance to just put them in the rear view soon with a 4 game set.
Early 10% Season League Notes
AL East - Orioles are probably the class. The Yankees, who are in first, are good, but probably worse than Baltimore so they have to hold out hope they can keep getting lucky and hold them off. (which is what the O's did to the Rays last year). Only 90% of the year to go! Boston might be good but also Toronto and the Rays may not?
AL Central - Royals are coming together and hopefully will rise about the mediocre slap fight that the Central has been recently. The White Sox are as trash as they seem
AL West - Sorry the Astros probably aren't bad. I mean they do have a 4/5 SP problem but otherwise are fine and should rise back up. Everyone else is who you'd imagine they'd be
NL Central - It's fun the Reds and Pirates are both pretty good now. Brewers are still probably the best. Cubs are close enough to consider as well. Could be a long season for the Cardinals and they aren't even that bad.
NL West - Is this the season the Padres actually win the games and not just produce the stats? Maybe. But Dodgers are still the best. Giants have an uphill climb and the Rockies are nothing.
Baseball!
11 comments:
Terrible weekend…my draft kings 70+ won final total is looking scary… on a side note where did you get the 63 win expectation last year when stripping out the luck/randomness?
I was in the bleachers for the game yesterday, that 6th inning was painful to watch. It's frustrating to play well and lose to a bad team, but the team still looks good and I'd have to think they finish ahead of the White Sox, Rockies, A's, and Marlins at this rate at the very least, assuming no mass sell-off at the deadline
I think the biggest plus for the Nats right now is Abrams and Gore looking like they might just be trending towards their more optimal outcomes, even if for Gore that’s probably a number 3 pitcher. That’s a big deal as it means the Soto trade is almost certainly a big win for the Nats (assuming continued health). Given that the Max/Trea trade looks pretty bad, the Soto trade had to be a big win.
Harvey has been impressive.
It should be noted that since Harper touted James Wood, Wood has gone 2-for-12 with 4 Ks.
Pretty sure you could take a 12AB stretch of anyone from Danny Espinosa to Babe Ruth and find similar numbers. Or are you implying that Harper’s jinxed him?
He’s implying Wood was jinxed
Another great outing from Irvin limited to 74 pitches (two starts in a row like that). Thank god the bullpen didn’t blow it this time.
Best of all, they won the road trip. 2 games better than Harper expected (well let's say 1.5, he wasn't that pessimistic).
@Harper (or anyone): Honest question, and something I've always wondered about - How can you tell when a team's not trying (as you mentioned Miami not doing)?
(Hope it's not too late for anybody to be reading these comments ...)
I’m wondering this too I’m thinking more from an organizational standpoint, the players are always going to try of course. Granted, if they get dejected and morale is low they may meander around as you’d expect anyone at their job
This is not something you can quantify....but that doesn't mean it isn't real.
When teams give up you see signs of apathy. For example, somebody doesn't hustle to first, the manager calls that person out (maybe even benches them for a day) and you can sense the players support the manager and not the player. Players consciously talk up their teammates...and you can sense they look forward to playing together. Having so many of our future stars playing together at Harrisburg last year is going to pay off.
When management abandons you, self-respect keeps you playing for yourself, but the bonds among teammates deteriorate.
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