The stretch from Hell started about as it should have. 2-3 was the most likely record but they had real shots at making in 3-2 which would have been impressive. Of course it's baseball and we don't count the "could haves". Every game is it's own little thing and it's only in the aggregate of what has happened in total that we get a true picture.
Now comes the only "should win" series between now and June. The Nats travel to Chicago to play the woeful White Sox. But hold on! The White Sox had recently won 4 in a row before losing yesterday. You can't take anything for granted in baseball. Tonight we get Trevor Williams, fresh off easily his best game of the year. Why couldn't he had done this last year when the Nats could have dealt him and his extra year of control for something good? Oh well. Tomorrow we get the Erick Fedde match up vs Mitchell Parker who was perfectly fine against the Orioles. Then Patrick Corbin off a solid performance.
None of these guys is throwing deep into games. The Nats only have two starts of 7 innings, and only 12 of at least 6 innings. That's only 30% of their games and ranks tied for 25th in baseball. Normally that would be a big flashing red warning sign of things to come BUT the Nats have had only one start of 3 innings or less (tied with 4 other teams for the best). The combination means the Nats bullpen has pitched a reasonable amount of innings so far.
Of course that's overall. Specific to the Nats individual relivers it does get a little dicey. 30 pitchers have been in at least 19 games, should be about 1 a team. The Nats have 3 (Law, Floro, and Harvey) and they among the teams who have played the fewest games this year. So that might be something to keep an eye on.
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Agreed. I wonder if one of the reasons that the team has started better this year is that the bullpen seems improved. Maybe this lets Davey pull the starters earlier, to avoid a Time Through the Order penalty.
Of course, that doesn’t really explain why Williams hasn’t given up any homers yet. I think that really is the biggest difference between his performance last year and this year.
Believe it or not, the Nats are 2nd in Pitching fWAR (only trailing Philly). However, they are 23rd in Offense fWAR.
If they could be even just league average in offense (while maintaining the pitching, two hard things to do!), they’d actually be a decent team
Looking at the stats I'm thinking an offense just below league average and a pitching staff just above is more where they deserve - and that's with all their good surprises continuing on in some fashion. Usually teams like that are a little below .500. I think everyone would take that. The "No Comeuppance" Nationals would have like 78 wins.
Wouldn't things be a lot easier if Rainey were replaced by someone who could pitch? Then maybe those other guys wouldn't have to pitch 30+ times
That's where I'm at too, Harper.
And the even more encouraging frame is that the "no comeuppance" Nationals are set up really well for 2025 and beyond, even if we're too close at the deadline to flip Williams, Winker and Floro.
Abrams, Garcia, and Wood all look like good bets to be actual 3+ WAR stars to build a lineup around. Young looks completely playable in CF, and eventually a very overqualified OF4. House keeps looking better and better, and Vargas and Lipscomb can fill in around any early struggles he may have. A SP2-SP7 of: Gore, Irvin, Cavalli, Parker, Gray, and Rutledge isn't "best in the league" good, but it's comfortably solid and better than many contenders. (Note: that SP3 to SP6 ranking is extremely fluid - we'll know a lot more in 4 months).
Plus, we're $100M under budget (we think and hope) and have prospect depth to trade as needed.
I think everyone would indeed take that. Which is why even very frustrating games like yesterday's can't really get me down. This season is going extremely well so far - and it's pretty robust. We do a bit better and we actually contend! We do a bit worse, and the system gets 4-5 more FV40 prospects at the deadline The only way it really turns is if multiple key b=players have significant setbacks. Abrams or Garcia regressing back to preseason expectations. Parker becoming unplayable. Two or more things like that would really take the shine off.
Until then, losing 3 of 5 games against good teams (while running a +3 run differential, by the way - something tells me that we might be counting the "could haves" a bit more if the whole thing was reversed) doesn't faze me one bit.
Skenes made his debut this weekend. It's obviously way way too early to say whether Skenes, Crews, or Langford will have the better career. But, at this point, I wonder how much better the Nats' long-term outlook would be if PIT had selected Crews at #1 like many expected at the time (and the Nats took Skenes at #2, as was expected). On the one hand, a viable SP1 would be of the roster, which currently lacks one. On the other, TINSTAAPP. Skenes could break tomorrow, or a year from tomorrow. As constructed, the Nats are going to need to spend a bunch of money on the pitching staff, and they're going to need some health luck for that money to pay off.
@Anon 12:53 - I'm not really sure about needing more pitching. I know everyone wants a "true ace", but a rotation of Gray, Gore, Cavalli (if he pans out), Irvin, and Parker doesn't sound that bad. They'll need a couple more guys like Williams as rotation depth, but at least those guys should keep you in most games.
Given that there's a _lot_ of offense coming (Wood, Hassell, Crews, House), a pretty solid bunch of "he'll do" guys like Lipscomb on the way, and Abrams/Young/Garcia/Lane Thomas already here and at least good enough to stay on the roster, I'm feeling pretty good about the near future.
Rather than overpay for a Werth or Max type, I think the best thing to do is sign a bunch of guys to $4M deals for depth at SP and RP. They're pretty deep (both in stars and in fill-ins) the OF, IF, and C for the next several years. Which I can't believe I'm saying given where they looked like they were in February.
I'm really ready for them to throw in the towel on Rainey. You can't doubt his effort, but if he's lost 5-8 MPH on his fastball, that's just not going to do. They're right at the fringe of being competitive, and they're using the bullpen so hard that the 2 spots they're wasting on Rainey and Nunez are going to start to cost them some games soon.
What kind of lineup was that today going into a rubber match game in a series we “should” have won? No game tomorrow and DM had both Ruiz and Adams, Robles and Nunez??
I have to think some guys were just gassed from a DH yesterday? But very odd lineup indeed with a day off tomorrow. What happened to go 1-0 every day?
A DM strength is putting players in situations where they can succeed and make a difference. It's a great strategy for building young player confidence. But his line-up for last nite's rubber match? A set-up for failure, making a lame White Sox pitcher look like an ace. 2024 is not a year where these guys are supposed to compete, so there's some logic in putting out a spring training line-up. But jeez they seemed lost out there.
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