I'm not going to put up James Wood's numbers here because you have probably already seen them and honestly the actual numbers don't matter. After a brief cold spell Wood got hot again and he's basically doing everything at the highest possible level in AAA right now. There is no good production-related reason to keep him in the minors.
So why is he in the minors?
Is it service time manipulation? Not directly. That usually ends in April when you've kept a player from getting his full year of service time, getting the team another.
It's possible they are trying to avoid Super 2 status, which team control doesn't change but you get into arbitration quicker. The number - which used to be closer to the service time manipulation date, has been drifting lower as teams try all they can to be cheap (sorry, sorry ownership fans GET VALUE) and would likely sit somewhere between 110 and 120 for guys brought up this year. So if you want to be safe you are aiming for under 110 days. That would be around June 12th if I'm counting right. However I'm not entirely sure that this is the reason.
I think this is the reason, well at least the first part
"The top two finishers in Rookie of the Year voting in each league are automatically awarded a full year of service, regardless of how much they actually accrued that year. Teams will receive extra draft picks as compensation for promoting young players to their Opening Day roster who later finish in the top 3 in the Rookie of the Year voting"
Can James Wood finish in the Top 2 in ROY voting right now? Probably not but it's not quite impossible yet. The best bets are all pitchers Imanaga, Yamamoto, and Skenes. And Imanaga and Yamamoto are well ahead in value BUT pitchers are pitchers and injuries and load management will come into play. On the offensive side there's only one bat that Wood couldn't pass with a furious start and that's the previously unheralded Joey Ortiz. Give this all a few more weeks (hey maybe mid June!) and Wood'll be too far behind to possibly catch up.Now they know he's good enough to win ROY and would like that compensation but would they hold him long enough to make that happen? I can't see how. These are the "September call-ups" because you only need 45 days of active time to lose the rookie designation. Can they keep Wood down until late August? God, I hope not.
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Why not call up James Wood? I can think of one reason. There are a number of Candelario-wannabees on the roster right now, and they need every opportunity to play, so that one or two of them could possibly get good stats and be traded. Every AB that Wood gets is one taken away from Senzel, Rosario, Gallo, Winker & Co. I can't think of any reason for holding Wood beyond the trade deadline, but it makes sense to sit on him until then.
I'm pretty much there with Anonymous. The team is trying to force at-bats to try to get some value out of the old guys, though I think most of them don't have much value. At some point, Wood's doing too much to stay down on the farm tho, and those old guys aren't really doing enough to justify blocking him.
I won't go so far as to claim that Rizzo is trying to lose games this year, but it's very clear he doesn't believe contention is a possibility and he's not willing to trade money or future value in order to increase our playoff chances from epsilon to double epsilon. Given that, the two concerns driving Wood's promotion are maximizing his long term development and minimizing his long term pay (net of PPI picks, the rental flips mentioned in the other comments etc).
And while I think it's clear that there aren't any more production-based boxes to check before Wood is "ready", we can't be certain there aren't any process-based ones. He's a 21 year old with less than a full season in the upper minors. Just because similarly promising players have been rushed up when immediate wins were the team's top priority doesn't mean that's the ideal development path and we shouldn't assume bad faith and rule out development as a motivation.
Likewise, we shouldn't assume good faith and rule out the service time bullshit as the explanation. Some rough numbers: surplus value on the 7th year of control is likely around $20M and Wood being super-2 would cost the team an extra $15M over the 7 years. Getting 4 FV40s instead of 2 at the deadline is worth around $5M. And a 25% shot at the PPI pick is worth $2.5M.
Those first two numbers are pretty significant, and Harper makes a good point that the ROY race isn't as locked down as the team may like. Especially if there's a chance that some writers think that players with significant foreign experience shouldn't be counted as true rookies under this new structure.
I'm not sure we'll ever know the true weighting of the various factors, but the longer it goes the worse it looks.
Here's the thing about "the window of contention" - holding a few players back today won't make the window stay open any longer on the back end. (Let's assume it's not about being to cheap to afford a 4th arb year). If the Nats called up Wood today and cut bait on Gallo, Meneses, and Rainey, they could be close to sneaking in a wild-card spot. Would they be "contenders"? Not really, no. But getting those guys one wild-card game in 2024 is 9 innings of experience they'd have for 2025. And it'd build a lot of excitement, sell a bunch of tickets, and justify backing up the truck for a Premier Hitter (I happen to know of one who's going to be a FA this winter).
Jesse Winker and Mitch Williams might fetch a lottery ticket, but the revenue opportunity of being in the wild-card race into the last week of the season is hard cash that's worth considering.
@Kevin the problem is that there is a chance of being in the wild card race. If a bunch of things happen right, then the Nats would be in the race! IF Wood is called up and rakes, IF Gray and/or Cavalli are healthy and effective in their returns, IF Williams, Irvin, and Parker stay healthy (and don't turn into pumpkins), IF Thomas comes back and is somewhere close to his performance in 2023 (his overall performance, not the good first half or bad second half), IF Abrams snaps out of his funk, IF Garcia doesn't regress too severely, and IF the "A" bullpen stays healthy and effective, then I believe that this is a WC contender even with the dreadful C and 1b situations.
But I don't think that's particularly likely. I do think that it's quite possible that they call up Wood and things go horribly, horribly wrong. So it isn't a guaranteed revenue boost that they are passing up. It's the chance to draw to an inside straight. Ask your poker playing friends how that usually works out.
I'm not against calling Wood up tomorrow if the Nats think that it's the right time. I'm just not going to pretend that it's going to give the team a good shot at the playoffs.
Hey y'all, Soto is not signing in DC. Put that dream to rest.
@BH not disagreeing with your conclusion (at best we are 1/30), but wondering about your reasoning. Do you think the team won't come up with the necessary money? Or that JS' experience in the summer of 2022 left him with a wish to never play for the Nats again? My observation is that being the highest bidder usually washes away past disagreements.
A big issue with the "wait till next year" philosophy - let's say Gore needs TJ and is out until basically 2026 and Garcia and Abrams float down closer to average. Would you go hard in FA? Probably not. But if you don't go hard into FA why call up Wood at all in 2025? Well because it's silly not to - he's ready. Guess what! That holds true today.
Yeah it's more likely things go ok rest of the year but when you have an advantage you should push it. Wood is an advantage. Now's a perfectly reasonable time to call him up. Don't screw it up waiting for a more perfect time.
Nats won’t be the highest bidder with the Lerners owning the team, and he seems to enjoy playing for the Yankees.
It sucks but it’s like an ex that’s moved on.
@Anon — while I agree the Nats won’t sign Soto, I’m not sure the Yankees have the money. They’re currently at their max payroll ever. Not sure how much drops off next year. Dodgers, Phillies, Mets and Cubs are also spending a lot, but might have room if they’re willing tho break the bank. The Nats will have one of the smallest payrolls next year, with Corbin dropping off.
@Harper — what’s your take on the likelihood of the Yanks signing Soto? Where do you think he’ll land?
I'm just amazed at how certain folks on the internet can be.
Are people just being hyperbolic? Does "the Nats won't sign Soto" really mean "the Nats are more likely to not sign Soto" or "the Nats aren't the most likely team to sign Soto"?
Because if you'd have to be an utter fool to offer, say, 50:1 against the Nats signing him. The NY teams are more likely, sure. And every big market will take their shot. We shouldn't count on any "hometown" discount, though I do believe the rumors of an east coast preference, all else equal.
But this is an ownership group that offered him a huge (if team-friendly) extension knowing that they were years away from contending. They were willing to be the Angels with Soto as Trout. Now with an actual team developing, and barely any money committed, why wouldn't they want to make a serious offer?
Again, we probably won't sign him. It's not the cleanest fit. But we're like 3rd or 5th on the list of possibilities. Don't pretend we're Pittsburgh or Oakland just because you think cynicism makes you look worldly.
“ Now with an actual team developing, and barely any money committed, why wouldn't they want to make a serious offer?”
Because since trying (and failing) to sell the team they’ve invested the bare minimum in free agents.
Exploring the sale predates the extension offer.
Look, it's not impossible that the younger Lerners have decided that trying to win is foolish and the Nats will be a rent seeking bottom feeder until someone meets their sale price.
But there is no evidence to support that narrative over the alternative: the reload failed when Corbin and Stras went down, so there had to be a rebuild. The money will be there when we need it.
You're just picking the one that you think makes you look cool. It doesn't.
The extension offer wasn’t enough to keep him here. They didn’t meet him on AAV and pushed a long-term extension with a bunch of years to say they offered a big number. Same deal with the Harper negotiation, except there they had a bunch of deferred money.
They probably still want to sell, the market just wasn’t there because of the MASN situation. I have a hard time believing they’ll become major spenders but I’d love to be wrong.
I just think you’re setting yourself up for disappointment if you think they’ll be serious contenders for Soto, given the data available right now.
On its face, the chance of signing him are poor….at least 8-10 teams are possible suitors. So, disappointment is almost certain .
But why would someone want to take away hope? The narrative is too delicious not to play with. Soto comes back to lead a group of 22-28 year-olds that features him and several players we got in trade for him plus Crews. However unlikely it’s a fun thought.
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