All-Star Break.
Record 44-53. (73/74 win pace)
General Feeling : Not great currently, but taking a step back pretty good.
The Nats currently are on a pretty horrendous stretch. After nearly hitting .500 getting at 35-36 the Nats have gone 9-17. The call-up of James Wood created a hopeful mood that perhaps the Nats were going to make a play for something bigger this year but they have all but slipped from any sort of Wild Card contention and the sell-off has begun. Both Jake Irvin and Mitchell Parker have looked shaky recently as has the overworked bullpen. With Corbin being Corbin and the 5th starter being likely a rotation of AAAA hopefuls at best, it's unlikely the Nats can keep up the pitching that buoyed them for half a season. Meanwhile the hitting looks no better today than at any other point. Wood did not immediately become a superstar and Abrams and Winker are good but not good enough to carry a lineup (few duos would be)
Taking a step back though, it would take a continuation of this stretch through the entire remainder of the year to approach a disappointing year (they'd win like 66 games). One good stretch will given them a solid win total. CJ Abrams and Mackenzie Gore both continued to improve looking like cornerstone players of the next potential Nats contender. James Wood dominated the minor leagues looking more and more like a safe bet to be a good, if not great, major league player and another tentpole. Jake Irvin and Mitchell Parker, while tiring now, were good for long enough to suggest one, if not both, will be rotation pieces going forward if not more. Yes Kiebert Ruiz and Josiah Gray continued to have issues and the minors beyond Wood hasn't produced another player hitting their ceilings but if you are looking for 100% of your things to go right, you are looking for something you will never find. The Nats look like a team that is ready to take another step forward.
Will they? Well that's likely for the off-season. From here on out the only thing that could derail the general mile-high view good feeling would be injury issues.
Speaking of good feelings for the future, the Nats traded arguably their most talented reliever, in Hunter Harvey, and got back a decent haul. No Cayden Wallace isn't special which framing might suggest. My personal opinion is that if you hear someone called "Team's Xth best prospect" instead of "MLB's Xth best prospect" it probably means they aren't actually a real prospect. Cayden is borderline in that respect. Injured 22/23 year old (he'll be 23 in less than a month) who had real issue generating power this year in AA. But being in AA at this age is good and he's worth a look at. Plus the Nats get a supplemental first round pick (39th). Both the player and pick probably fall into "multi-year bench player" expectations which doesn't sound like much but would be a good return for a reliever like Harvey who is as much talent as production.
Rizzo has his flaws but he's always been a good trader, deals he makes are rarely flat out bad. So expect at least fair returns for the relievers. But do expect the relievers to go.
6 comments:
I'm kinda underwhelmed by the draft. Given the "wow, Rizzo did another highway robbery" hype, and then drafted a guy who looks like organizational depth at C with it?
And drafting a guy at #10 whose ceiling looks like "good bench guy"?
They're drafting well under-slot - are they planning to use that pool money somewhere else? Something doesn't add up.
I think you’re underselling the guys they took a bit. Not that what you said is a worst case scenario for them, but it’s also not a best case either. King reminds me a bit of Ketel Marte and Lomavita a bit of Realmuto. Now if they actually reach those comparisons obviously isn’t super likely but those are their skillsets and maybe somewhat-slightly lesser versions of those players could be their upside…or maybe more than that.
I'm a bit worried about James Wood, in the short term. He's had 60 PA and 20 K. That might be okay if he were hitting for power, but he's not. He's looked really bad swinging at sliders/off-speed pitches down and away. Brings back bad memories of Michael A. Taylor and Victor Robles. We all hoped they would learn how to hitting breaking balls, but they never did. Do we expect Wood to learn how to lay off these pitches?
Eh it’s been like a week and he’s 21. Not the ideal start but let’s just see. Without looking up the numbers he does seem to be making a decent amount of hard contact.
I think Woods’ bat will improve. Im more concerned about the D. Yes, SSS but the FG D number doesn’t look good.
Should they consider moving him to 1B in the off season? Nats have plenty of guys who can either play OF currently or could be up from the minors relatively soon
@PF and @GCX Even by the standards of impatient fans who need to be reminded about SSS, you are really jumping the gun. Take a deep breath!!!!
My understanding is that at each level of the minors, he had a slow start as he adjusted. Let's give him at least a few more weeks before we conjure up MAT and Victor Robles....or start deciding that his D is so bad that we should be putting him at 1st base.
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