One of the questions floating around this series has to do with Juan Soto as he's coming in as a Yankee. He'll be a FA in the offseason. Should the Nats go all in to sign him?
The pros and cons are all obvious.
On the pro side he's the most impressive young hitter of this generation (Trout is heading out of the middle baseball years. Shohei just turned 30 in early July. Juan will turn 30 after the 2028 season is over.) He's got possibly the best eye in baseball and can hit for average and power. He's still very young. At 25 he's likely a good long contract from any decline. He's never been a problem in the dugout.
On the con side he'll be incredibly expensive. Likely Boras will open at something like 15 years 1 billion, because he's Boras, this deal will be on the other side of 500 million easy. If your team isn't going to dig into deep pockets this could effect remaining signings. While athletic, he doesn't run great and he doesn't field all that well. However he seems to prefer being in the OF so you can't just stick him at DH and you best have good OF D to cover for him.
The Nats on paper seem like good candidates to try for Soto. They have a super low payroll right now, so have room for a monster contract. They could put him in OF assuming Crews is a plus CF like people think and Wood gets over his early issues and becomes a plus corner OF which people also think is possible. If anything happens they have room at 1B/DH as well.
But the Nats haven't committed to a bat like this in a long time. Arguably it was either Jayson Werth in 2010 or Ryan Zimmerman in 2012. They haven't paid a big time bat like this in over a decade. But they have spent money. It's just been on pitching. Sherzer, Corbin, the Strasburg extensions were all top of market deals. That begs the question - is it just coincidence or is it philosophy? And the follow-up - if it's not philosophy wouldn't the fact the Nats have a boatload of young bats and a canoe full of young arms change up targets? In other words doesn't the situation warrant a top starter or two not another bat?
That depends on how you see the future. The present says the bats need more help. But there's a sense that guys like Wood, Crews, Abrams, maybe House, etc. could become star level bats. On the mound there's a hope that Gore does that but that hope was diminished a bit by this year's simple ok performance so far. The other arms have been surprisingly decent but not #1 arms. If you buy into the bats could be great and the arms won't then arms make more sense. But if not - you fix what's broken and the line-up is broken more.
Soto back to DC is intriguing and it would make the team better. But is it the best path forward. Of course my answer is YES!* but as the start of a spending spree signing him AND the starter(s) you need. Not my money.
*Well really my answer is "Yes it is the best path forward for the Nats but the Yankees should outbid them"
14 comments:
Bring back Soto. It’s that simple
Has Soto said that he prefers to stay in the OF? Because we've seen the Yankees run him through 1B drills. I've been assuming that it's been at his request to showcase the potential for scouts. Harper did the same thing during his walk year. And the fact that he hasn't appeared in a single game at first makes me think it wasn't motivated by a team need. (Of course, maybe the Yankees just don't like his actions and that's why they haven't tried him in a game.)
In any case, I think the Yankees are a good fit for him and have unlimited money, so they seem like the most likely destination. And I'll be ok with anyone outside the NL East, as long as the Nats put a very credible offer in front of him. I'd easily go up 600/15, but probably not too much higher, given that the Nats don't have unlimited money and probably intend to be constrained by the cap.
(Also, Harper, these Yankees look really good. You must be loving this year.)
Crews called up all a sudden Harper crawls out of his hole! 😆
The only reason I suspect Soto to not be a Yankee is their current payroll situation. Yes they have infinite money because they're the Yankees, but they're already over $300M this year with over $200M already committed for next year. Cole is going to opt out and negotiate an even higher contract I'm sure and they're already on year 3 of the competitive balance tax. Plus Steinbrenner said earlier this year that their current spending isn't sustainable.
But that doesn't mean that the Nats are then the favorites. Everyone and their mother will be looking to add him to the roster, and I'd love to say the Nats will win out but more likely than not it'll be someone else
I think Soto has made his preferences pretty clear: he's going to sign with the team that writes the highest number on a piece of paper. That's independent of where he plays defense (or if he plays defense) and how many prospects the org has ready to break into MLB. When you're signing for 15 years, you're playing the long game. It's certainly possible Soto makes a first "cut" and says "these X teams are part of the final auction--write your best offer down now" and excludes some potential bidders who he would never sign with. But I think the Nats would make the final auction--he has to have good feelings about the org and he knows it's capable of success and deep postseason runs. But the way the Nats sign Soto is by writing down the biggest number, which I hope they do no matter what the number is. Soto has to know he's headed for 1B or DH--he's observing RIGHT NOW a better defender in Stanton acting out that fate. I can't imagine he really cares about playing OF even if he does prefer it on the margin.
A baseball team is a business as well as a win-producing factory. There is a lot of goodwill associated with the Soto name: much more than the good pitcher and very good hitter who would cost as much per annum as Soto. If the WAR/$/year argument is close, his franchise value should put him over the top.
Its likely Soto picks up the phone when Rizzo calls. Without that trade, he's not with the Yankees, without that trade, the Nats don't have key pieces that make a contender. The trade put Soto on the national stage, in playoff races -- without it he's being walked for three years on a weak Nats lineup. One would hope that the competitor in Soto sees the potential of the Nats now and remembers a great fan base. But good will does not feed into the Boras free agency equation at all --- that's just cash on the table.
It would be pretty special for the fans if Soto were to return to DC, never mind Rizzo pulling off a great run of trades to revamp this team. “Hey Preller, we’ll loan you Soto in exchange for your top prospects… only to bring Soto back long term in the end.” Glorious.
Crazy to think, but I feel that with a player like Soto whose best traits are not necessarily age dependent and he doesn’t play a premium position, a deal like that could age pretty well. I think of Trea Turner’s deal, Mike Trout, etc. where speed/youth was a factor in signing a “5-tool” player and that drives up the cost/AAV. Soto is not fast, he doesn’t have a great arm, and he doesn’t field well. His knowledge of the strike zone should only improve and his power + hit tool hasn’t yet reached its apex.
At 26, the only recent comp is Bryce and Soto will shatter that AAV. Over the long haul, Bryce looks like he’s on a team-friendly deal at this point for the value they’ve received. I think Soto’s style of play, limited injury history, and already impressive qualities at the plate make him a “pay whatever it takes” type of FA.
I'm a Yankee fan. I'm not loving this year unless I'm in the series. (this isn't always the case but they have plenty of playoff appearances recently and ALCS appearances that I need more). The Chisolm trade gets me excited even if he's only slightly above ave at the end of it. Stretches the lineup that one extra batter they really need
If Soto didn't prefer the OF I don't know why'd he be there so much.
busy end of summer
Cole can't negotiate a higher contract. If he opts-out the Yanks have a clause that lets them keep him if they give him an extra year on the end. They actually have like 50 mill+ coming off the books the bulk with Rizzo, Verdugo, Grisham, Berti. Some is eaten up by arb and some by filling in gaps but it can be done, especially if Soto is 50 mill per, well he's already 30 this year so it's only +20.
I think he'd prefer to play OF but you are right in that it's not going to be a breaking point. If the Nats are paying more he'll play whatever they want here
Give Soto everything he asks for, then throw in a free t-shirt to sweeten the deal.
Actually, Phillies fans are starting to turn on Turner. His defense has been slipping over the past few seasons, and now it’s to the point where he has many errors. They also complain he’s not hitting. Granted it’s philly so they’re terrible but I noticed his decline in defense when he was with LA. Of course the pressure of playing in in big markets could be a factor. I’m surprised he went to Philly because I think he is a quiet guy who dislikes attention, but I guess it’s because his wife is from Jersey.
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