I wonder if there is a fun way to shorten that. Oh well.
Dylan Crews will be the 5th player* from the 2023 draft to debut proving that things are moving faster now than they used to. After showing he was better than what A-ball had to offer, Crews had real trouble in AA last year, but that's not all that surprising. AA is a big jump from college ball and it was at the end of the longest season of high competitive baseball Crews had played. He started pretty slow in 2024 as well but by July he was handling AA pitching perfectly well and got the call up to AAA. After a short adjustment, he began hitting there as well, performing very well in the last 3 series (.333 with 4 homers in 14 games. series are longer in the minors). It's a fairly quick turnaround but perfectly reasonable.
Crews will remain a rookie for 2025. He'd have to have 45 active days on the roster but with the last game of the season being September 29th, that passed more than a week ago. He could get 130 AB (not PA) but with about 30 games left that's basically playing everyday, hitting leadoff, and catching some breaks.
He's played mostly CF and people were generally high on his fielding. I haven't heard much different, but then again we heard good things about Wood and he's been disappointing in the field.** Still a true CF carries a bit more weight when they get high evaluations.
2024 has been about 2025 and this is one more piece of proof. By getting Crews some major league ABs that means he'll be more prepared when he comes up next year, likely to start the year but we'll see. It's exciting and fun and exactly what Nats fans were hoping to see this year. This year has been what the Nats wanted and it's just one more thing making 2024 probably the best year for the team and the fans since 2019.
*Skenes (awesome but the Nats couldn't have picked him if they wanted), Langford (ok but hurt), Jacob Wilson (surprisingly INCREDIBLE in the minors, just called up), Nolan Schanuel (he's been ok). So if Crews isn't at least ok it would be a surprise.
** but not at all disappointing at the plate. Ok he could have a few more homers but the guy is hitting over .280+ with patience and moderate power as at 21/22 (he'll be 22 soon). No complaints from me.
14 comments:
House doesn’t seem too far behind him at AAA. He’s hitting nearly as good. You think there’s any chance we see him this year? Couple other fellas I wouldn’t mind seeing: Lord, Stuart, and Bryzykcy. This guys are playing well and all in AAA. Maybe?
If Mark Lerner flashes the moneybags, I think the Nats will be at least a playoff team next year. I'm happy that he has held back thus far.
Does he replace Call or Young for the rest of the season? Young has been great in the field and on the basepaths (it's wild to see someone have 2.5 WAR with an OPS+ significantly under 100), but seems like his long-term role is probably a PR or late game defensive replacement. Call is better at the plate, but I would much rather see them pick up a FA slugger next year and relegate him to deep on the bench.
AAA season ends in a couple weeks. I'd expect him up then. House didn't hit as well in AA and if they were thinking about it the past week was a little rough. I mean they can't be sold on Jose Tena so sure it could happen sooner.
depends on how big those bags are and who he flashes them to
Call seemed to answer that - at least for a brief IL trip
If Crews works out (as he undoubtably will), either Call or Young are trade bait. We've gotta get used to the Nationals being buyers.
Eh, I think it's pretty obvious that the OF4 would be Call. Young doesn't look like a borderline all star any more, but even with his bat cooled to a 80 wRC+, he's still a solid above average regular putting up 3 WAR/600.
And I actually don't think Call natural trade bait at all. For one thing, Call's true talent isn't a 160 wRC+. I think his improvement is real, and he's good player who tries hard (and I'm very glad that his injury looks to be less serious than it did in real time), but he's getting crazy lucky with a BABIP over .400 and a wOBA 90 points higher than his xwOBA. Even this may be a bit optimistic, but I think a 115 wRC+ is a plausible estimate going forward. And a bat like that who can competently cover all three OF spots is exactly who a contending team wants as their OF4.
He's also old enough that you should only expect 2 or 3 peak years from here. For a trade partner to value Call more than the Nats do, they would have to be a contender for whom 1.5 WAR/600 is a significant upgrade for a starting outfielder spot. Teams do find themselves in that situation, certainly at the deadline if not during the offseason; we just traded a similar player in Lane Thomas. But he was also being made redundant by imminent promotions, and Call isn't until/unless Lile or Hassell or someone pushes their way up.
Actually, in that situation, I would expect Lile or Hassell to be trade bait over Call. Teams can dream on the upside and 7 years of production, and I think that outweighs the chances that they bust out entirely. Again, especially if we're talking offseason trades.
I assume everybody has seen this:
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/_/year/2025
Now that the Lerners are about to be buyers, whom should it be?
We absolutely need to add 2 plus bats, and we should be looking to add a frontline starter.
Soto isn't the best positional fit, but his bat makes the HOF even at DH and with all the extra positive sentiment bringing him back would trigger, he's my top priority. I'd offer 600/15 and, if that doesn't win the auction, at least we tried.
After that, my top preference is Walker because he'll need 80/4 at most and he's plus on both sides of the ball.
For SPs, Burnes and Fried usually top the list, but I'm wondering if actually taking a risk on Bieber's medical situation might end up being the smartest play for us. Our somewhat robust SP pipeline allows us to be variance-seeking or at least less risk averse, and maybe that helps us find a fit with someone in Bieber's situation.
Dreaming about a Soto return is a fun game....with an unlikely but not impossible outcome favoring the Nats. What will it take? $50 million for 12 years plus 2 or 3 club options that take the total package over $700 million. Higher AAV than Ohtani, highter potential pay-out than Ohtani,, getting the money much quicker than Ohtani, and (granted) a bit less guaranteed money.
What else will it take? Wood and Crews raking during the Yankees series, with credible performances from Abram, Ruiz, Garcia, and a couple of our young, under control starters. The Rockies beat the Yankees 9-2 (or 3) yesterday. so it is possible to beat them solidly.
Besides deep pockets, the Yankee advantage in resigning Soto is being able to bat him in front of Judge. Soto is having a great year in part because no one can pitch around him. We need to show him that we can field a line-up that can protect him nearly/equally well. That's a tall order--but starting Monday,, in his presence is the time to start making the case.
Here is an article on the incredible success of the duo this year: https://www.mlb.com/news/aaron-judge-juan-soto-an-all-time-great-hitting-duo?partnerId=it-20240825-10861442-mlb-1-A&utm_id=it-20240825-10861442-mlb-1-A&lctg=90275203.
If I were Soto, I would certainly consider taking less to stay paired with Judge.
The Yankees have the inside track, sure. Especially if they actually manage to win the WS this year. But that's IF they're willing to spend the money. We all assume that they have infinite dollars but their current payroll is nearly $330M. Hank Steinbrenner earlier this season referred to a $300M payroll as "unsustainable." Well, they have $175M committed to just six players - and that's if they decline the option on Anthony Rizzo (in the unlikely event that they pick it up, it would be $188M for seven players). They have 14 players eligible for arbitration. Adding $40+M/year for Soto, making the rest of the roster work, and staying under $300M may be a tough sell. On the flip side, if Soto signs elsewhere, Yankee fans may well march on the team offices with torches and pitchforks.
" It's exciting and fun and exactly what Nats fans were hoping to see this year. This year has been what the Nats wanted..." I would quibble just a tiny bit with this. I honestly thought the Nats would be a .500 team this year. Unfortunately at times the defense has made the Bad News Bears look like Good Tidings Of Great Joy, the bullpen has been wildly unpredictable, and our most consistent starter has been Patrick Corbin. But I will say this season has been more entertaining than the last three.
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