Good! That's smart, I think.
But no one said what they are going to do for pitching. They are still 13th best in the NL this year in RA. That's the type of pitching that needs a BEST OFFENSE EVER to compete for division titles with good teams.
I of course said "just buy more pitching too" but that's me and I don't expect the Nats to actually do that. What is your plan then? Bargain bin pitching? Roll with prospects? Trades?
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Sykora and Susana are still 2026 guys that’s ok for them on but not good for 2025. Clemmey probably similar but more like later 2026/early 27
*ok for then.
Cavalli should be able to help next year but exactly how much is the question/issue
There was a lot of improvement* in the pitching from unexpected in-house sources. *Granted they were starting from a low base. But just getting rid of Corbin and replacing him with a bog-standard #3 moves the starting rotation up a few notches. Is it fair to expect significant positive progress from 2 of Herz, Irvin and Parker? That's another notch or two. Soto or no, they need to add an arm.
The Nationals have their ##3-5 pitching needs well covered, with a goodly number of cromulent injury replacements. The problem is at the top of the rotation: ##1&2. A bit of luck can fill one of these two open slots from within. But I can't see filling both of them without a trade or FA signing. If Tena works out (which he probably won't), do we really need Brady House more than a top pitcher?
It's insane to me that people think Soto will sign in DC. Why would he sign with a team that undergoes 5-year rebuilds with uncertain ownership instead of teams like the Yankees/Dodgers that are always in playoff contention?
Only won a world series with one of those teams ;). Agreed it would probably follow a pitcher signing or two. Not sure Dodgers are in the card, but Yankees certainly have their allure
IF they wanted to compete, would assume we make a play for a top end on market (Corbin, Fried, Flaherty) and maybe try a Wacha type for a #2. The downside is the AAV of those three contracts I'm sure at $100M alone, though I'm sure you could structure the pitchers for a 2-3 year option.
I actually think they can just "buy more pitching".
First off, they aren't in such a bad spot. Our starters may rank 11th in the NL by ERA, but they're 6th by FIP. You can quibble on whether ERA or FIP is more predictive of future ERA after 700 innings, but whatever part of it that was caused by actual bad defense isn't getting fixed by signing pitchers. (And our defense has been pretty bad this year, especially in the first half.)
Second of all, I don't think folks understand just how stocked our roster is in terms of average or better players at controlled costs. We have 11 of the 14 regular positions locked for next year at a total cost of $25M. In 2028, 9 of them will still be around and will still only cost something like $65M. Of course, injuries and failures happen, so it's not likely to be entirely that rosy, but this team isn't going to have even a slight budgetary concern until 2029 at the earliest. And that future is so distant it's almost ridiculous to discuss it.
Basically I think Anon@134 is a bit too pessimistic. Our roster has 2-5 and depth covered. Maybe we get unlucky and it's more like two 3s, a 4 and a 5. Maybe we get a little lucky and it's two 2s, a 3 and a 4. But our system can supply a competitive team's SP2-5 perfectly adequately (assuming they don't have to also cover for an anemic offense).
The problem is that we don't have an ace. Maybe Gore or Herz can become one but it's unrealistic to demand or expect that of any player until they've actually done it - and even then, we're rightfully skeptical for a year or two. I'm comfortable penciling in the better of Sykora or Susana to replace Gore as a 2/3 in 2028, but I'm not comfortable projecting anyone to be an SP1.
If I'm Rizzo, I'm trying to sign an ace in free agency. Given our depth, I think the most advantageous line may be to try and sign Bieber. Short innings isn't as much of an issue for us since next year is more of "take a shot, but .500 and just missing the playoffs isn't actually that bad". Maybe something like 120/3, with a 80/4 team option. Gives him a solid guarantee, leans a little team-friendly if he comes back 100%.
If we don't like the FA options, I'm open to but not enthused about a trade. An ace will likely cost House or Susana or Sykora, even for rental, and probably more than one of them if there's extended control. I'm not saying there's no way I'd pull the trigger on that, but I'm reluctant. I'd much rather spend money, given our absurdly low payroll. (Of course, if we can swing it with a bulk package of mid-level prospects, I'm all in favor of that. I just expect teams would insist on a more top heavy package than Lile+Hassell+Morales+Wallace+ etc.)
If the Nats offer the largest number of dollars, Soto will sign here (essentially the same reason Rendon signed with the Angles). If the Nats don't offer the largest number, he probably won't. There are probably other franchises that couldn't win the auction even if they were able to pony up the cash. I don't think the Nats are one of those teams.
Professional athletes care much less about "winning" than they let on publicly. And, if you are like Soto and are going to sign for 10-15 years, you are guaranteed to experience a handful of down years (unless you sign with the Dodgers).
You don't need an ace if your goal is just getting into the playoffs. A decent ##2-3-4-4-5 will get you there if your hitting and fielding are good enough. The ace is needed for the playoffs. Maybe a trade deadline pickup? Or maybe, as Harper suggests, just getting into the playoffs is goal enough for 2025.
I think there's a *chance* the Nats could compete for a playoff spot in 2025--though the WC strikes me as far more realistic than the Division given the quality of Atlanta's roster. I would punt on starting pitching this offseason and focus on it for the 2026 season. There are two rationales: (1) Scherzer notwithstanding, free agent pitchers are, unlike hitters, assets that decline. You expect the pitcher to be good in the first season and to decline thereafter. Although good pitchers are always good to have, I think most of us would prefer the free agent pitcher to be good in 2026 rather than 2025; and (2) the Nats have A LOT of young pitching prospects--I'd absolutely bet against any of them becoming top of the rotation types, but I think there is value in seeing what happens on the farm in 2025, plus it will help to see how much Cavalli can contribute.
Hitting (Soto) first, pitching second, is my theme here.
Cavalli is a good point. I've been discounting him pretty heavily, but Rizzo knows the actual medicals. In his head, Cade coming back and giving us 100 innings of SP3 next year could be an 80% or a 5% proposition, and that would make a difference.
Wacha more of a back of rotation guy. Would rather test out the in house candidates instead personally
I've long defended Davey, or at least said "I don't think the things you dislike him for are things a manager is supposed to be in control of". You can't blame Davey for Strasburg's arm falling off, Scott Boras, or Dom Smith being bad. HOWEVER, "making sure the team pays attention to details" is absolutely part of his job.
The team has been working a lot on running more, given the rule changes to favor it, I think that's a good thing. But the nats sure aren't especially good at it. They've also made lots of attention-to-detail mistakes on the basepaths, on defense, and in situational hitting. These are all things that the Nats CAN do better, and are definitely in the manager's job description.
I think Davey's good at the Ted Lasso side of the job, which is an important one. But at some point, someone's gotta start running some laps over these mistakes, because someday, they're going to matter.
Just to challenge conventional wisdom, do you really need an ace in the playoffs? Every elimination game these days is essentially a bullpen game, with your best pitchers each going a couple innings. Sure, we all dream of having Jack Morris, Sandy Koufax, and Bob Gibson give us that dominant game that Ken Burns will someday gush about while he sells totebags on PBS, but that's just not how it works now.
If you were going to spend a big pile of money on talent, would you rather have a guy who can, every 3 to 5 games (depending on if it's October) pitch 7 innings, or someone who's going to terrorize the other team 4 or 5 times every game? I would much rather have a pitching staff that's solid-but-not-spectacular all night every night, and a Big Cherry Blossom Machine that just keeps hitting. (e.g. Crews-Wood-Soto-House-Garcia-Abrams-X-Y-ruiZ)
Just one data point, but Zach Wheeler had a lengthy stop-and-go recovery from TJS when he was with the Mets and we all know how that worked out. Not saying Cavalli and Wheeler are similar, but I don't think a circuitous recovery from TJS is all that unusual or worrying (at least at this point in Cavalli's recovery).
Worth noting, there's also the possibility of buying pitching by trading for it rather than signing it on the FA market (See, eg. Gio Gonzalez and Doug Fister; Rizzo's been perfectly willing to do this in the past.) And with some of the young Nats prospects starting to actually work out (Wood, Abrams, Garcia, Young), that gives the team the possibility to trade others.
Moreover, RA is just one measure of pitching. By contrast to the miserable picture that "13th in RA in the NA" paints, the Nationals' pitching staff is 10th in fWAR for all of MLB, 5th in the NL, and 11th in FIP. Those numbers suggest that, even though some of that is owing to Williams' excellent start and the usefulness of Floro and Harvey out of the 'pen, the Nationals have the beginning of a competent or even good starting rotation.
If anything, buying some fielding (27th in baseball) might be nice. (Between the fielding and the baserunning, as several other posters have commented, the Nats are a *sloppy* team, which is part youth, but also must be pointed at the manager and coaches.)
Can we get an in-depth dive on how some of the players Nats traded for over the summer are doing? I am thinking in particular Jose' Tena. He seemed to be the extra throw in piece in the Thomas trade. He was once thought of as a pretty good prospect, then had a down year in AA it seems, but killed AAA and now in MLB the ball seems to fly off his bat. He has 5 errors which is not great in a short time. Has his defense really fallen off where he can only be at 2b, where Nats seem solid? I assume if Tena stays hot he will start at 3b next year and maybe move to a utility/DH role? He is small but again he has some fast hands/bat speed.
I know less about some of the other guys the Nats brought in, Chaparro (where does he fit), and then all the minor league guys where do they stack up? Cayden Wallace in particular he is just coming back from injury, does he have any chance of filling the Nats very bare depth at 1st base? Rizzo's draft record has not been great, but I hope he might have swapped some diamonds in the rough for a new crop of AAAA talent that was just waiting for a chance. Rizzo seems to be better at locating these type of players in trades then drafting talent earlier in their development such as Elijah Green.
I am getting excited for 2025!!!
Today MASN had a pretty good article on the topic I suggested, so maybe I dont need a full breakdown. https://www.masnsports.com/blog/evaluating-nats-trades-one-month-after-the-deadline
Also, Nats need to cut/demote/DFA Gallo. I was very surprised he came back at all this season. Try someone... anyone else at 1b to get ready for next year.
Isn't the Nats way to get a guy who was good a year or two ago and try to rehabilitate that guy?
Agreed. Before Crews came up and after Call got injured, I could see why they would play Gallo in RF, but 1B/DH need to be Chapparo and Yepez as much as possible, probably switching them off regularly to give them semi-rest days (and also to see if one of them handles DH well, since the statistical research seems to show that "being able to hit at one's normal level while playing DH" is actually a skill that some people have and some don't). The only thing Gallo gives the team is a better chance of snagging errant throws from Abrams and Tena (he's a solid defensive 1B, whereas Yepez and Chapparo are...not), and the Nats need to be obtaining as much data as possible on these guys to see if they are potential pieces for the future
I think they do that in hopes of being able to flip the guy at the trade deadline. That’s since passed and Gallo’s on a 1 year contract so he’ll be a free agent at the end of the season. So if he manages to start hitting, it won’t benefit the Nats at all. There doesn’t seem to be much point in keeping him around.
If Tena can play replacement-level shortstop defense, I think that Vargas might be out of a job. Vargas deserves his major league role because he can play shortstop and nobody else on the Nationals' roster can, except Abrams. Tena clearly has the better bat, and I don't think that Vargas' clubhouse leadership is a decisive factor.
I know that Tena played shortstop regularly in the high minors. How adequately, I don't know.
Rendon is a right winger who hated “liberal” DC. He essentially said as much in his introductory press conference in Anaheim. He also wanted as small a market as possible where he didn’t have to deal with fans and media as much. See: his antics in Anaheim, his taking a swing at a fan and Nats’ media members admitting he was essentially and jerk and uncooperative. Guy says he doesn’t like baseball, is lazy and can’t stay healthy.
Not to fret; Gallo is gone after the season ends. The advantage that Gallo offers over the last few weeks is being (by far) the best defensive first baseman that the Nats have. The Nats' young infielders don't have to be near-perfect for Gallo to finish the play while they adjust to MLB. Which they really can't say about the other 1b options. The Nats are also short of veterans, and Gallo can help mentor da youth while he's here.
Wake up Harper!
What’s up with CJ? I’m not fully blaming the hitting coach but do any hitters really develop under Coles? This offense is putrid
Luis Garcia, Jr.?
I feel like fatigue may be playing a role there. It’s coming to the end of a long season and he is still really young.
John C - yeah Luis Garcia is one (the only?) example of a player flourishing under Coles
Anon 10:05 - I don’t know, he’s not the only one that’s been playing all season. He’s not a pitcher and this isn’t his first season anyways. Plus he’s young enough at 23 soon to be 24 shouldn’t be a fatigue. Also he’s been playing poorly for a while now
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