The Nats in the off-season didn't do what we wanted them to. Still, after realizing they weren't going to make that big move, we assumed they'd help out a bullpen that looked pretty thin. It was an easy move to secure some improvement (or at least assure as best you can no movement backwards) for a group that was passable last year. They did not.
In 2024 the brought in Derek Law who had an better than expected 2023 and looked usable based on the past few years. They brought in Dylan Floro who had a WORSE than expected 2023 but fancy stats were good and historically he had been very solid. This also sort of describes Matt Barnes. And they brought in Jacob Barnes, recent historically bad and not good in 2023 but with fancy stats that suggested maybe something was there. You aren't going to hit on all! (Or maybe just avoid Barneses)
This year Jorge Lopez is sort of a cross between the Barnes. History is pretty hard to read but there are good things and last year was good. Lucas Sims is historically usable but looked worse last year. Colin Poche had some good years but the fancy stats see him more of a last guy int he pen.
So there isn't a guy with the history of Floro. Poche is a worse bet Law. Lopez is a basically the bet you made on your two other guys in one pitcher. Fewer guys. Worse bets. The fact you are sitting with a worse outcome isn't a surprise
This all would be acceptable if there were a stud set of arms they wanted to lead the way. There isn't. Last year they hoped Finnegan, Rainey and Harvey would be that. They dropped the nothing special Kyle Finnegan only to pick him back up on the cheap when no one else wanted him. Rainey never became anything and he's gone. Harvey had promise so they traded him and he's had a fast start in KC. Guys they kept mostly aren't anything. Eduardo Salazar is just an arm. Jackson Rutledge is a complete unknown with a total of 6 games in relief to go on. Jose Ferrer is he's young and lefty but more likely to be more like Salazar.
If it wasn't for the emergence of Brad Lord there would be no bright spots to one of the worst pens in baseball and with Davey the type to lean on what works you start to worry about that, if he's even going to stay in the pen as long relief and not be worked into the rotation with Soroka down.
It's a fun week after a not so fun one. Abrams and Wood have had fast starts. Keibert as well. Gore looks good and the fancy stats aren't worried about Williams or Parker. There are things to be excited about if you believe the ownership will finally buy in next year. But the excitement that could be happening this year probably won't and the lack of pen help will likely be a big reason.
12 comments:
Is it possible that the Lerners spend more next year? I was in Tysons this morning and reminded that in the post-pandemic area, surely commercial real estate has regained some of its value? I wonder if that affects their plans for next year (also the MASN resolution).
Not assuming it, but hope for the best?
By the way, the Soto trade is looking good!
Whether the Lerners spend or don't likely has very little to do with the commercial real estate market. While that's where Ted Lerner made his money back in the day, there's no reason to believe that the family's wealth remained concentrated there. I will note that the Forbes assessment of the family's worth was pretty much unaffected by the pandemic/post-pandemic economy.
It's odd to mention that Hunter Harvey has gotten off to a fast start (sure, in a grand total of 5 1/3 innings) without mentioning that he was turrible for the Royals after the trade. In his total time with the Royals he has been worth a whopping 0.1 bWAR. But then again we only tend to notice former Nats when they do well and ignore them when they struggle.
I think that Harper is in a bad mood because the Yankees lost 3 of their last four and have dropped out of first place.
It's definitely disappointing we didn't see a Werth-like move this year and have to suffer through another promising but mediocre season. I'm not convinced they go all in next season. The Lerners feel more like Rockies ownership than Cohen.
I certainly agree that the pen is the team's most glaring weakness, but I'm not sure it's the part of the team most hurt by the offseason stinginess.
Outside of the absolute best, relievers are incredibly volatile. And, because Finnegan has shown that he's unable to do anything but close, signing a better arm might have only produced incremental value over Finnegan and not over Poche or whoever the 8th guy is.
The long term way to have a strong bullpen - unless you're wiling to give Kirby Yates $13M to cover the 6th inning for you - is to have a steady stream of plausible arms developed internally and for some of them actually turn out to be good. You want 3 or 4 bites of the apple each year, and for one or two of them to work, and, if you can do that, then after a few years you have most of an above average pen that you can build around.
We're still very far from accomplishing that, but our pipeline is healthier than it has ever been by far. Ferrer is under control for 5 more years, and this year we'll likely see attempts from Rutledge, Ribalta, and Brzykcy, and probably Henry and Grissom. They all won't succeed, but a couple probably will. That's how to build a league average bullpen.
In the meantime, it would be crazy to give $10M to a reliever if the starting DH is Josh Bell.
That's a grumpy post, Mr. Harper. We knew the bullpen was and will be the achille's heel. Thanks for the reminder.
But after a brutal early schedule, the team is 5 - 7 --- could easily have been better. The last 6 games have been well-played and entertaining.
The losses can't all be placed on the pen. Crews and Bell are taking time to fire up -- they've been dead spots in the lineup. There have been crazy bad base running errors. Outfield has dropped catch-able balls. Hitting with runners in scoring position is bad.
We need a positive post. Come on. If Hernandez hadn't made a highlight reel play on Abrams' scorcher, we'd likely be .500.
100% agree
Possible? Sure. One has to hope.
Hey! I've always been real high on Harvey. That's why I mention it. He was terrible for the Royals but was injured last year and those numbers are an outlier when looking at his career.
If I wanted to stick it to the Nats I'd mention Robert Garcia was also doing well with the Rangers. There's your pen right there!
If I was just focused on me being right I'd mention Lane Thomas wasn't doing well with Cleveland. The Nats were right to trade him away.
This is fair. Even across seasons pens aren't 100% reliable and money might be better spent elsewhere.
But they didn't spend that $ and you can't just throw up your arms and say "well whatch gonna do" throw three random guys into the mix and pray. You make smart moves. I thought last year's moves were pretty smart. I wouldn't say I was high on them but I thought it was ok. That's kind of what I was expecting this year.
I just posted before that Gore could be breaking out into an ace!
For those interested in a more positive post, I note that the Nats are currently #5 in MLB in B-R's "Simple Rating System." According to the site that balances a team's run differential against the strength of the schedule. The Nats' run differential is meh (-5), but their season started off with a really rough schedule of the Phillies, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks, and Dodgers. All of these teams have positive SRS (the Diamondbacks are tied for #1 and the Dodgers are #3; the Phillies are barely behind the Nats at #6). To go 5-7 through a gauntlet like that is (honestly) better than I expected and a positive sign for the team. (insert instant dismissal of both the stat and its relevance given that it's positive for the Nats).
It's nice that Garcia is off to a decent start in his six 1/3 innings pitched with Texas. Nathaniel Lowe is hitting at a 133 OPS+/128 wRC+ while posting the highest EV of his career. And his glove has already helped the other infielders on multiple occasions. Suffice it to say that, if the Rangers called and offered to reverse the trade, Rizzo hangs up.
Honestly, the Garcia/Lowe trade is that rare example of (after exceptionally early returns) one that is working out for both teams. Nats needed a first baseman and Lowe's been great. Rangers needed relievers desperately after losing all their good ones and Garcia's likewise been good for them.
The hand-wringing over the Nats' pen is justifiable given that Mike Rizzo has proven year-in, year-out that he's pretty bad at building one, especially in the offseason, but it's also fair to note that right now Sims and Salazar are pitching the innings that were supposed to go to Actual Decent Reliever Derek Law. When you have two of your low-leverage, hope-they-work-out guys pitching high-leverage innings, bad things are going to happen. I do wish they'd paid David Robertson $10M or so to pitch the 9th, though. Or even the 8th in the "Finnegan can close; use Robertson against the other side's best hitters" role.
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