on the worst "trying" team in baseball
The Rockies, despite sweeping the Nats, are historically bad. They are on pace for 37 wins. There literally should be calls from the game to replace the owner because things are so non-competitive in Denver.
The White Sox are in a similar spot, Reinsdorf aging into a worse version of himself as owner often do stuck with a "back in my day we didn't pay players so much" mentality, trying to squeeze every last dollar from the team for years leading to another terrible team in 2025. This is a cycle and this year the WHite Sox are the one at the nadir, on the path for the low 50s in wins. However, they are finally in the process of being sold
The other teams down here are of a similar bent. The Pirates, Athletics, and Marlins are all infamous for not really trying. Instead trying to be "Tampa Bay Lite" investing in the minors enough to hope to cobble together a decent 1-2 year squad that pushes .500 and a Wild Card a couple times a decade. Maybe every couple decades have things line up right for a brief window of actual contention. The Orioles, recently sold, look to be adding their name to this list, squandering a decent base of youth. And the Royals probably belong in this group, but are having that cobbled together squad couple years that we just talked about. (I do think they push a bit more than the others when things line up)
So it's down here, with the likes of these teams that the Nats sit. And its not because of a run of terrible luck (Hey Braves!) or a that this is the low point in a rebuilding process, that was a couple years ago. No it's earned and deserved. The Nats are a team with all the hallmarks of not trying. It is what we noted going into this year. This was the year to start trying. They did not. That's a warning sign.
Luckily for the Nats fans they don't have a history of doing this. So maybe it's not actually happening. Maybe the Nats aren't becoming a team like those noted above. Maybe it's just a one year blip, trying to get timing right. Maybe.
But it's hard to get hopes up when you know at least part of the ownership group wants out. And it's hard to get hopes up when having the 3rd lowest winning percentage of all active managers while constantly throwing your team under the bus, can't get a manager fired. And it's hard when you have a guy turning into an ace and a budding superstar on your team and you don't hear a peep about long-term signings.
I still say it's a low-mid 70s win team, I still say they catch a run. I still say hold out hope for this off-season. What can I say, I'm an eternal optimist. But I don't blame you if you don't.
8 comments:
Yeah, I have to agree here. It really reminds me of the Snyder years -- a team I love just isn't going to be any good until the owner changes. You can argue (I think Harper did?) that the ownership changed when Ted Lerner died, and the kids are in limbo about what to do. I get that you can't support a $300M payroll like the Mets do. But an ownership group in Washington DC that can't support $175M is just not good at their jobs. That should be plenty to be in that SF/StL tier, where you can sign some big stars, as well as round out the roster with $8M guys rather than $1M "hope he's not useless yet" flyers. You should be in the wild-card hunt 75% of the time and make a deep run every 5 years or so.
This rebuild has kind-of worked -- there's a solid foundation there. They have capable starters at SS,3B, LF, RF, and CF (when Crews is healthy), and Morales should be a good fit at DH/1B soon. The rotation's got some good arms, and more good arms on the way (if you include "recovering from Nationals Elbow" as "on the way"), and the bullpen is.. well they have a few guys who are fine. What they really need is $50M in real good payroll investments. Buy a $20M slugger for 1b/dh. Get a 2b who's good at defense and ok with the bat. Spend $20M more on pitching - either a 4th starter and 2 decent relievers, or 3 good relievers. That's a pretty solid team, and if the Lerners can't be bothered to field that kind of team in the nation's capital, get the hell out of the way so someone else can.
Sorry, I don't think they will win 70 games. They are on pace for 66 wins, and that might be optimistic. They really haven't faced serious injuries, Wood is one of the best hitters in all of baseball, Gore is pretty close to a #1, CJ Abrams is well above average and Jake Irvin is a pretty good #3. And yet, they still can't win. The rest of the team is awful, and the bullpen is a disaster.
I'd like to think there are two separate problems. I am so done with Davey. Why is he running out iffy relievers who will be pitching for the fourth time in five days with a cross-continental plane trip in the middle? We need a manager who will hold players accountable privately, not who will throw them under the bus publicly!!!!
The other problem is why they (Rizzo) are holding back on bringing up more kids? Jacob Young (back to AAA), Riley Adams (run him through waivers), and Trevor Williams (to the bullpen) would be a start. Then bring up Hassell, Milas, and Cavelli.
I would feel much better if we were losing with the kids learning then suffering defeats because veterans are washed up. That's where i think, ultimately, we are better than the other bottom-dwellers--we have talent coming....and probably Kade Anderson (the next coming of Paul Skenes?) before long.
Notice, I am not focused on ownership. I think they have been right about not signing anyone expensive until they have a better sense of who can play among our kids. The long-term extensions should wait for the Fall....it would be a hard sell to get someone to commit long-term to DC right now. Finish out the season, figure out who your reliable core is, supplement it with some free agents, then try to see if someone is willing to commit.
I was not thrilled when Davey mangled his defense of his coaching staff into what sure sounded like an attack on the players. Particularly when his "apology" amounted to gaslighting (he said that he never mentioned the players, when the recordings show that he absolutely did).
That said, I'm somewhat amused by the fact that he's now getting grief for throwing his players under the bus, when for years fans were yelling about Davey NOT holding players accountable. Pick a lane.
As a side note, the Nats were not swept by the Rockies. I know because I was at the game and thoroughly enjoyed James Wood's bolt of lightning walk off winner in the 11th.
Cavalli's not ready, Hassell and Lile aren't either. I'm fine calling Hassell or Lile up for a week or two to cover for injury and "as a taste of the big leagues", but look at their stats. They're not ready. They need more time in AAA. That said, they're not likely to ever be stars as much as solid contributors.
Cavalli would be nice to see if he's ever going to make it, but who knows.
I hope they draft a good starting pitcher. A college arm from the SEC is probably going to be ready to contribute really soon, which is what they need. But again, without another $50M from the Lerners, they're not going anywhere.
Agreed on Davey.
But not really on the kids. I think they've actually done a pretty good job of giving the right folks ML reps this year.
What about Hassell's month long run makes you think he'll be better than Young at anything? (Young is, by the way, only 2 years older than RH3.) Hassell is clearly a worse defender, and he has a worse AVG, OBP, SLG, wOBA, xwOBA, BB%, and K%. I don't think the cake is completely baked yet for either of them, but there's no question who has the better median projection.
And I'm all for DFA'ing Adams and giving Millas another chance, but Millas is running well below league average in AAA. I want to give him a chance, but I expect failure. (I also don't think anyone claims Adams, which is why I would have done this move back in spring.)
I'm maybe with you on Cavalli deserving promotion, but they steal back a year of control in like 2 weeks. They won't bring him up before then, and probably not until they trade Soroka. But even that is at most like a month or 6 weeks late, so it's not like Rizzo is slow walking him in a way that hurts his development.
I think Harper nails the situation. At this point, we don't know. But a year ago, there was no reason to think the team was going to join those ignominious ranks, and now there are some reasons. If we're in the same place next summer, it will be hard to find an argument against it.
The complaint was never that Davey was too supportive of his players in public. The original observation has simply been that his players have shown mental lapses at a consistently higher clip than other teams, and that has metastasized first into the inference that they are badly coached, and then (because crotchety baseball fans think being a hard ass is the only way to teach anyone anything) into the message board caricature of Davey being too buddy-buddy to hold players accountable. The truth is that's all speculation, beyond the original preponderance of mistakes.
But however your best guesses land on all that, I don't see how it would mitigate the disaster of an interview last week either way. In fact, I'd say that the gaslighting public non-apology and the tale of his weird half-apology in the locker room only corroborates the idea that he fails to hold folks accountable or communicate directly in tough situations. It was just such mealy mouthed shit.
@johnC There is a big difference in our work lives (for all of us), when the boss chews you out at a staff meeting versus when he gives you some critical feedback in his office. I suspect that Davey isn't holding anyone accountable....but if he is, then it should be in his office, not at a press conference.
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