Daylen Lile is hot right now. He's been up almost half a year and is closing in on 300 PA. in that he's hit a solid .282 / .327 / .450 line and it's only been better in the second half .318 / .360 / .523. How excited should you be from a guy that probably entered 2024 the 6th Nationals outfielder to watch on some lists*
He's a legit prospect (2nd round pick) and while is isn't super young he's right in there with Wood and House which is frankly young enough for anyone that isn't a phenom. He seems to ID pitches well and makes great contact hitting a good deal of line drives. He's fast and can get that extra base from the balls he hits. He's good.
He's a mediocre fielder with a weak arm. He doesn't generate a lot of bat speed or barrel up the ball, and doesn't hit a lot of fly balls, so he doesn't generate a lot of "true" power, instead relying on legs for those XB. Despite IDing pitches well he seems impatient late in counts and is not working his way on base like he should. He's not amazing.
I'd be pretty excited for Lile in that it's always good to have as many good players as you can and Lile, seems good. The general track - HS star - legit prospect - solid minor league stats - is what you hope to see from your best prospects. He has all the skills, he seems to be using them. That he isn't a great fielder shouldn't be an issue but with Young not hitting at all and Crews taking a slow path to being a starter, it matters a little. If you ever have to pull Crews from CF you can't just shift him or Wood over.
It's seemingly clear that the power for 30 homers seasons isn't there. It's not his major league level nor really how he hits in general. That was always true but you project out some for kids. He just isn't getting to that projection. But 15-20 seems reasonable and if he's hitting .280+ that's almost good enough.
Really it comes down the the walks. By all accounts his eye is good and in the minors he did take his share of free bases. I'm not exactly sure why he isn't in the majors right now - could be a bunch of things - but the answer is NOT his eye isn't good with major league stuff. It is. So it's a question of choice it seems and if he chooses to be a little more patient and you have a guy getting on base .350+ well then - that's a player.
Half a season is half a season but Lile has the skill set available to him to be a solid major leaguer. The contact bat looks to be there now (but we'll have to see over a full year next year), the speed is there, the eye needs to follow because the glove and power likely won't**. That'll likely be the difference between Lile being a nice 3rd/4th OF type and a solid starter. Of course maybe he'll just hit .320 instead of .280, or and then we don't care about the eye anymore
*lists that didn't read my takes on Elijah Green
**Yeah the power looks ok but legged out triples are a LOT more like doubles imo. I feel a lot of run production stats over count for triples.
2 comments:
Good timing Harper: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-rookie-on-the-rise-daylen-lile-is-raking-in-washington/
Re triples - are you saying that they're inherently fluky and therefore we should be regressing 3B / (2B+3B) pretty heavily when we project true talent going forward?
Or are you arguing that linear weights simply generates an incorrect value for triples, because of some skew in how they're sequenced or something? (For reference, FG's 2025 estimates have a 2B worth ~1.42 singles and a 3B worth 1.79. HRs are worth ~2.30 and walks ~0.82.)
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