I do have more to come but you know - snow storm .
So for today - what do you expect back for CJ Abrams. They don't HAVE to trade CJ but it seems EXTREMELY unlikely that they will be competitive in the time before he becomes a FA. Are they going to be good enough to convince him to stay? Do you take that chance instead of selling him on a decently high note with a couple years of control left? The way I read the Nats management the answer is no.
So what do you want back for him? What do you expect back for him?
If it's like Gore would you be happy with 2-3 prospects that are near the top of a middling minor league organization? The quantity over quality approach? Or are you wanting a more solid prospect. A Top 100 type that you can at least point to as likely to be a major leaguer of some level than the lottery ticket approach. Is there anyone else you are looking to sell? Luis Garcia seems like he could go. Jacob Young? He doesn't quite have a place here if you love Daylen Lile.
2 comments:
Right now there is no one knocking on the door to push Abrams aside (a hot September for Nunez notwithstanding). My take is that you work with Abrams to see if you can unlock his potential, both mental and physical. If you can level him up, that makes him more viable to help the next Nats contending team while also making him a more valuable trade piece if they decide to deal him later. Trading him now to me would seem like selling low, which is rarely a good idea.
I think the OF situation is meaningfully different. For his career, JY is a 2.7 WAR/600 player. That's crazy for an OF4. Maybe if you're the Dodgers you carry it, but even a normal team in peak contention probably shouldn't. (Lile has produced at a slightly worse rate, but I think it's easier to believe in his upside from here than Young's. Unless you're willing to cut bait on Crews - and of course they aren't yet, Young is the backup.)
The system also has multiple OFers in the upper minors who are likely to perform above replacement - Franklin, Pinckney, and Hassell certainly, and probably Sam Petersen. That's more depth than is useful.
The team should trade 1 of JY, Lile and Crews unless they're planning on covering DH (or 1B?) with Wood and Lile enough to get all four serious playing time. They should also trade at least one and probably more of those four OF prospects. And this would be true even if they were keeping Gore and Abrams and spending $70M more to improve the team.
As far as the other potential trade targets, I'd trade them if I can get more value than they're worth and hold on to them otherwise. And for context, I'd have held on to Gore. If Garcia or Gray has a good first half, I bet they get moved at the deadline.
And we'll have to wait and see about Abrams. I still have worries about whether he's tradable at all given his casino issue. If I were I rival GM, I'd be terrified of the information asymmetry around that, though maybe with all our FO turnover, that's evened out enough to make a deal possible.
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