2024 was a pleasant surprise for the Nats in terms of the SP as while Gore didn't develop as he should, Trevor Williams pitched like a near ace for the third of the season he was healthy and Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker, and DJ Herz all surpassed expectations. Yes, that only meant they were all "usable" but a staff of an near ace, a stretch 2, and three average arms is pretty good, especially on a shoestring budget
So the Nats basically pushed to repeat the year with FA pick up Michael Soroka taking the place of the injured DJ Herz. It would be a stretch sure if all these guys did the same but Gore should be better and if we got a "one better, one same, one worse" from the rest that wouldn't be bad at all.
Of course with all these guys going over expectation it was probably more reasonable to expect "one same, one worse, one much worse" but I'm not an optimist. Anyway
1) Gore was NOT better. At least not for the whole year. He was much better early on but wear and tear and the eventual injuries seemed to knock him back down to average again.
2) Irvin and Parker were both much worse. As was Williams but at least Williams was starting from "ace" which left him as just a guy (who also had some bad luck to counter his good luck in 2024)
Soroka was basically what you wanted but given the SP took about three steps back he wasn't the final piece but maybe their second best arm? Adding insult to injury the Nats made a questionable signing from Japan in soft tosser Shinnosuke Ogasawara who promptly was as bad as everyone thought he'd be.
If you are looking for some good news . Brad Lord looked very competent stretched into the starting role for half the year while Andrew Alvarez and Cade Cavalli both had September that suggest they might be able to hang in the majors.
Presumed Plan :
I'll guess now Gore, Lord, Cavalli, ?, ?. The money is on Josiah Gray getting first crack at it in the "ok we're not Mike Rizzo's staff. Can we do something here" way. Foster Griffin, from Japan, who has at least always excelled at keeping the ball in the park is likely 5 but that's more an open spot for whatever impresses.
Reasoning behind Presumed Plan :
Nats aren't competing next year. They are looking at what they have while likely trying to show case some of what's here with a clock already started. Gore might be moved, but he's a pitcher who shows best when healthy and you are usually healthy to start the year. You might get a better deal waiting a couple months and having Gore throw some ace like numbers out there.My Take :
They should sign someone. Yeah yeah "we need to look at these guys". You know at least the base of what you have. An oft-injured #1 a couple young guys fairly close to injury comebacks, a guy who you are rolling the dice on from Japan, and a guy who's never pitched a complete season before. Unless you want to kill your bullpen you need someone to soak up innings. Miles Mikolas. Chris Paddack. Someone your expectation is that they throw 150 innings, not your hope.
Beyond that I personally like Gore and like to see a guy who has ace stuff even if he doesn't throw it all the time. Gives a reason to tune in. So I hope they don't trade him but I expect they will. Could be tomorrow could be at the deadline.
And the rest is just whatever. This isn't a team with a plan it feels like. Instead it's a team using this year to figure out what the plan is.
3 comments:
Eh, I'm all for paying market prices to sign a real SP2 or better, but this team isn't doing that. Not this year, and maybe not ever again.
I have a hard time having a strong opinion as to whether the team would be improved by adding someone like Mikolas.
Even aside from the new coaches / evaluators angle, this team actually has pretty good SP depth. I can count 8 names that I'd happily slot into the SP6 role or better on opening day. Plus Herz, likely in the second half. Plus maybe Susana or Williams, by the end of the year if either recovery goes smoothly. There's just a lot of plausible names - and that's not even counting the possibility of development from prospects like Perales or Cornelio.
Where the team is weak is the top half of the rotation, and whoever we sign for $8M/1 won't help that.
I think that "develop the kids and find out what you have" IS a plan. It's just not a plan to compete in 2026. At this point I'm OK with that, mostly because I don't see a real good alternative. Throwing stacks of money at mediocre players would allow the interNats to do their usual pivot from "SIGN SOMEONE!1!1!" to "NOT THAT GUY FOR THAT MUCH!1!1!" Find out how firm your foundation is, and then either shore it up or build.
I might say "not that guy" but I promise you that I'll never say "not that much".
I don't care if the Lerners are worth 3 billion dollars or 4 billion dollars. I just want to watch a better brand of baseball.
Post a Comment