Is Mikolas done?

 Miles Mikolas' last start was his best start of the year.  He also threw only 3 innings and managed to give up 5 hits and 3 walks. While we don't like to jump on anything too early he is a guy who will be 38 in August and the idea that he's hit the final wall isn't crazy. 

The truth is Miles has been bad for a while, since 2023 really. Basically overnight his fastball went from great to trash and he went from All-Star to just a guy. Since then he gives up some homers, doesn't strike anyone out, and is EXTREMELY hittable.  But he was able to hang on thanks to some great control which limited the damage. But this year he's already walked 7 guys in 12 innings. 

Trying to parse out what's going on from fancy stats in three games is tough, ok it's a bit pointless, but we try anyway. What's glaring is his change-up just doesn't hold up anymore and it's plopping down low for an easy recognizable take. But that's a ball, what's being pounded is his curve and slider. Both are also missing the plate more too. He's actually throwing fewer meatballs but they are getting absolutely crushed. It might also factor in that everything is slower from him - that could be just early in the season. He did start slowly in 2023 and 2024 as well and it's been his wildest month in the "i'm not good now" part of his career. 

If you want to try to paint a picture there are two possibilities. 

One, is just as an older guy it's taking him longer to get into top form and the difference at his age and skill between top form and whatever this is, is stark. It's a major league pitcher vs a AAA pitcher. But once the arm gets loose enough the MPH will jump a little, the control will get to it's usual form and he'll be fine. Just fine, he is what he is, but he won't be a guy you are looking to throw to the curb anymore. 

Two, is he's lost enough control on his pitches that he can't reliably throw strikes. He's lost enough speed on his pitches that he can't fool batters, and the ABS system closing in the zone doesn't help either. They are easily identifying balls, sitting on any mistake and either teeing off or taking the walk. His only hope is that he can lean into his sinker to throw more strikes and get ahead more often, forcing the batter to swing more at his now missing the plate pitches. 

Since One can take a while guess what - this isn't something that can be answered until mid -May which is what we say about everything. But we can canary in the coal mine with his control and MPH over the next few games. The next 2-3 should be better than the first set. What's better?  You'd probably like to see a MPH+ more on his slider fastball and change and something closer to 1/3 balls to 2/3 strikes. This would set him up to a place where he was most of last year, which you could live with. We'll check back in.