On May 22nd the Nats were 25-27 and looking like they were going to stay in that area - flirting with .500, maybe going a game or two over but likely dropping back under - for the rest of the year. That had been the story of the season after the 3-1 start, and fit with the pre-season expectations mixed with what we were seeing on the field. But since then they've gone 15-8 and have put themselves squarely in the "huh, we need to check in on these guys before the All-Star Break and see how real they are". But it's not all good news.
On May 22nd the Nats were in 3rd place in the NL East. 11 games behind ATL, 1 game behind PHI, 2 games ahead of MIA.
On June 22nd the Nats are tied for 3rd place in the NL East. 9 games behind ATL, 2.5 games behind PHI, and tied with the Marlins.
They are undoubtedly in a better position today than a month ago. They were 4.5 games out of the 3rd Wild Card while today they are a half-game out, but there isn't an NL East team they've played more than twice. If the NL East is really this solid there are a lot of hard games coming. They'll play 4 more against Philly this week then it's NL East free until August where they'll cram all the rest of their inter-division games into the last two months.
The tendency is to sort of say - hey the Phillies aren't real and the Marlins REALLY aren't real but how does that apply to them and not the Nationals?
The Phillies stats suggest their record should be a lot lower, but taking a closer look at it, it's more that when they stood at 13-19 to start May they should have been like 10-22 or worse. The recent Phillies have been scoring runs and pitching well.
The Marlins stats suggest they should be a LOT better. Like one of the B-Tier teams in baseball behind the Yankees, Brewers and Dodgers. What they have is a lineup with no obvious low points (hey Nasim! What are you doing here? And you brought Jose today? How relevant!) and a very solid pitching staff that is deep with maybe the best bullpen in baseball.*
At this point we are taking the Nats to be real so we have to do the same for these other teams. Which means we have to move forward thinking if the Nats are going to compete for a Wild Card, it'll be a dog fight within their own division and someone is likely to be left out if that's the case.
*Fun fact? The Marlins have the best inherited runner scoring % at 22%. The Nats have the worst at 44%.
8 comments:
Eh, I don't think our schedule is particularly menacing. Yes, there are a lot of games remaining against teams in the division that are certainly no worse than the Nats. But the non-division schedule is lopsided the other way. We've already played 37 of 58 scheduled games (64%) against the non-division teams that are right now over .500.
So, yes, lots of tough games against PHI, MIA and ATL, but I bet all the other teams in the WC mix have it at least as rough, even if the shape of the difficulty is a little different.
I agree the Nats are in a somewhat worrying spot, but that's just because we're in an effective 7 way tie for WC3 without an edge in actual talent vs any of other teams.
On paper the Phillies are the better side. Since changing managers they have turned things around. They’re getting old, though.
Nats have an opportunity to show that they’re legit. Hoping for an offensive breakout.
It's baseball, man. There's ALWAYS something to be concerned about if you look hard enough.
Looks like Griffin made his case against the Phillies.
Indeed, that was a gem from Foster and the run machine that is the Nats keeps churning
The wildcard will be what happens at the trade deadline. If everyone stood pat, I’d think the Nats would have a decent shot at the playoffs. But the Phillies will almost certainly be buyers, as would the Cubs and Padres. The Nats might be sellers, or try to thread a needle, but they are more likely to come out of that process worse or the same, while their competitors will be better (though probably not the Marlins).
Yeah unless the Nats go on a major run to separate themselves from the pack in July, there's no reason to think the FO will be buying. It'll be a standpat or soft sell situation
What me, worry? I'll still be happy with 75 wins. The team is definitely improving and might actually be good next year--if there is a next year..
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