When the Nats traded a handful of good players* it was thought that it would hurt but the Nats weren't going for anything anyway. Get some more ABs and IP for some kids and get ready for 2027. But the Nats just haven't been bad, they've been one of the worst teams in baseball - and for a while now thanks to the loss of James Wood to injury. An 8-20 worst since July 28th. A 24-38 third-worst since June 16th.
Are you not entertained? No you are not.
What about the kids? Well unless you love Andrew Pinckney and near 26 year olds having a good 20 PAs there aren't any kids at the plate doing well. The Nasim Nunez can't hit issues are not that bad because the Nats have a handful of MI at the top of their minor league prospect lists. Dylan Crews though. There's been a fun little thing on social media since Wyatt Langford came up first that the Nats made a mistake** and there's been a vocal Dylan Crews army defending him. That group has gotten a lot quieter over these past few months.
I think I mentioned a few months ago how absolutely STACKED that draft ended up being in retrospect and it's quite possible Crews ends up being like 12th or 13th best out of the Top 16 players drafted that year. Currently he sits at 8th. Skenes and Langford, then Nolan Shanuel, Matt Shaw, Jacob Wilson, Rhett Lowder and Kyle Teel 7th with 2.0 bWAR. Crews is at 1.1 in about double the playing time. So I'm not enthused he's catching up soon.
Behind Crews is Bryce Eldridge who should pass him be the end of the year, Max Clark who came up in the past couple of months and is htting better than Crews at a much younger age. There's also Walker Jenkins who is one of the top prospects in the game and is tearing up AAA, who'd I bet on. And if you twist my arm I'm also taking Chase Dollander to have a better career who was looking like a top-mid starter but went down to TJ surgery.
That would leave him at 12th. Tommy Troy is a question mark - I don't love him but he does play SS so he'll get chances. This is about the same with Jacob Gonzalez. So split the difference and Crews is 13th best. One of these two is behind him along with Blake Mitchell a KC draftee C that is young (just turned 22 but is striking out SO MUCH in high A right now. It's not Elijah Green numbers but if you are pushing 35% in A+ that's scary for AA, let alone the majors. And Noble Meyer, one of those great arms that can't get under control and is also injured now so yeah don't like those chances. But he'll get the reliever trial in a year or so so who knows.
Anyway I got off track. Crews stinks. I get why they picked him but pee-yew. Sometimes the peach is just rotten on the inside.
Pitching wise - it's hard. You know a lot of very small samples. For the ones that weren't Dion looked good up until last games implosion. We'll see what the next one brings. The one kid getting starts*** Jackson Kent has been bad. We'll have to look back later but nothing to get excited about.
So no winning, no good kids. A depressing slog toward 2027 where maybe the depth of the organization comes through and with Wood back... or maybe they trade CJ over the winter because there isn't anything saying next year could be a break out. Sigh.
*Mead - broke wrist, might be back late September. Griffin - being Griffin. Garcia - being Garcia
**yes, an understandable one, imo, but still one.
***Cavalli looks good but he was already here. Alvarez has been fine but he's 27/28 next year. Not a kid.
5 comments:
I'm sure there will be some fans consoled by better draft position / lottery odds, but I agree that it has been a rough month of baseball. Ortiz and House have been playing meh or worse too.
Crews having OF4 true talent is a big hit for the org in terms of abstract value, but it's actually not that big of an obstacle to building a winner, as long as the team isn't committed to maximum austerity.
Move Wood to DH (where he frankly belongs) and make room to sign an FA outfielder. Tons of options. Happ, Suzuki, Arozarena, Chisholm. I'm probably missing a couple. If they're willing to be the 20th highest payroll, they'd have $80M in AAV to spend, so they should be able to win the bidding on one of those guys.
The pickings are slimmer over at 1B and 3B. We should have gotten Murakami last year. At this point, I think I'd just let it ride and hope folks get better. Maybe address it at the deadline, in futures where we are competitive. Same with SS. Put Nuñez on the bench, and give King a chance. If he fails and it makes sense, consider trading for a stopgap. Fitz-Gerald and Willits should be knocking on the door by 2028.
But even during this terrible month of baseball, the offense has still been about average. The top FA priority is at least 3 at least decent relievers. The next priority is a frontline starter if it's possible*. And then they can worry about all the soft spots in the lineup.
* I think it's just Skubal and Sonny Gray, though maybe I'm missing a name or two -- and with such a tight market, it might well be impossible. But I'm really really hoping that they try.
On the bright side, I went to my first Nats game this season on Monday and they won 13-3!
The lone bright spot has been my big beefy boi Andres Chaparro getting ABs vs RHP and continuing to rake.
Did you see Trey Lipscomb has 29 HR this season? Is this real life?
I'm not ready to give up on Crews yet until next year (if there is a next year). It's unfathomable that a "can't miss" bat is so dreadful, so I have to think something is simply wrong with his approach or something and coaching can sort it out
Heck you look at his statcast numbers and it just doesn't add up. Above average exit velo, barrel rate, hard hit rate, etc. xwOBA well above actual wOBA. But his K-rate and BB rate are pretty high, as is the chase rate. So I think pitch recognition just needs to get sorted, because when he makes contact he ends up hitting it well
Maybe platoon Crews and Lile?
https://www.federalbaseball.com/washington-nationals-analysis/93781/nationals-should-consider-platooning-daylen-lile-dylan-crews-2027
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