Over the weekend the Nats secured wins number 72 and 73. Win 72 ensured their best record since the magic year of 2019. Win 73 keeps them from losing 90 games, a nice symbolic line to cross. There's no doubt this Nats team is the best Nats team of the past few seasons, probably the best since 2021. That team ended up with a worse record but was on track for mid 70s in wins before dealing all their good players but Soto at the trade deadline.
This team isn't quite a "normal bullpen" from being relevant, but that's almost true. They should be fighting for .500. So the team is close... ish.
Really it's year dependent. In some years you can take the last playoff spot with 83 wins* In other years it will be closer to 90. So you really want to aim for the high 80s in wins for the next step which means adding about 8 wins or so. That's a lot! That's like adding the Cy Young winner to your rotation or the MVP candidate to your line-up.
And we're probably overselling the team a bit here. It's a team that should be fighting for .500... with 2/3rds of a season of Luis Garcia and Foster Griffin and Curtis Mead. And sure you can say "but we won't have bad player X!" but the truth is you'll always have bad players. It's replacing the good players that matters. So maybe 10+ wins. It's going to be quite a jump needed.
And that assumes everything holds. For the Nats that's mostly ok. The bullpen isn't going to get worse. The rotation holding comes down to Cavalli not getting hurt. The line-up though. They HAVE to keep CJ. Ruiz can't return to pre-2026 form. Wood has to stay healthy.
But at least we're talking about it in a way that doesn't seem crazy. There will be legit discussions on how to make this happen in 2027. I don't think the team will make it happen (I get the sense this is a 2028 plan that includes the best of the minors having an impact) but it'll make the off-season more interesting at least.
*Weird division winner situations excluded.
10 comments:
The Nat's bullpen has basically a cumulative WAR of 0 this year. The best teams, like the Brewers are at 7.4. So just getting to a normal bullpen instead of the current dumpster fire could add 4 or 5 wins, easily. And if they had an actual closer, maybe one or two more. Seaver King replacing Nasim Nunez or Jorbit Vivas might add another win or two. So they aren't that far away, assuming they keep CJ. Adding a quality starting pitcher and maybe a 1B or DH could get them close.
I think it depends on how you define relevant. If you mean "a real contender", who makes the playoffs and has more than an "any given Sunday" chance of winning, then yes, the team is far away. But if they had merely a "meh" bullpen instead of a spectacularly bad one, they'd have blown half the saves they blew. That's 21 more wins. That's gigantic, and sounds impossible, but there it is.
Toboni whiffed on the Bennett-Perales trade. Luis is a terrible pitcher. Plain and simple. He was underwhelming in AAA this year. But he had… good spin rate? Fine, he is a better thrower than Bennett, I’ll give him that. But he’s not a pitcher. If baseball is played in a lab, then I can see what our brain trust was going for here.
He's 23 - give him some time! He'll have two more years to become a pitcher and then he probably has 2-3 year of figuring out how to be a 1 inning guy which with his stuff is a viable alternative
Was actually at the game with my kids last night and before that inning got started, I turned to them and said “Not Perales, he sucks.” It’s good to feel like a smart dad once in a while.
"But if they had merely a "meh" bullpen instead of a spectacularly bad one, they'd have blown half the saves they blew. That's 21 more wins."
Not quite that simple. Those 42 blown saves include at least 12 games the Nats actually won, and there were a number of games with more than one blown save. The overall point, "think where we'd be with a league average bullpen," still stands, but let's not go overboard here.
Yeah, it's way too early to give up on Perales. A lot of folks look shaky coming back from TJ. Perales has stuff, he's a legit prospect. Give him time.
But it's not too early to strongly prefer the Jake Bennett side of that trade. He's already banked 2.3 WAR for Boston. That is probably pretty close to Perales's median career total.
I think it's pretty clear at this point that Toboni is doing a lot of things well, but trades are not a strength.
Does anyone know the season record for blown save wins ? I have to think the team is getting pretty close.
I agree with Harper that the Nats can't plausibly be good until 2028. But I don't see why being good in 2028 precludes being respectable in 2027. Let's assume that the Nats do nothing this winter except buy a #2 starter and a competent relief staff. That's about 5-6 wins. Seaver King at SS should be worth another 2 wins: maybe 3 given that Abrams' glove would be at 2B. Rochester is offensively loaded, so there will be some bench depth. The team is young enough to improve by aging: another 2 wins or so. That's an 85-win team, assuming no significant injuries (Cavalli, Wood, Abrams) and any regressions balanced by surges.
I hope I’m wrong, but it’s pretty obvious to me. Perales can’t strike guys out, he’s too hittable, he struggles with command, and he can’t get guys out period. Bennett proved to be a very capable pitcher with good command and the ability to get guys out at every level in the minors.
I’m not calling Bennett an All-Star. But aside from ~30 innings at AA, Perales has shown very little other than MPH on the radar gun. This past season in Rochester and his brief cup of coffee in DC is ROUGH!
Unfortunately, if one thinks Perales is going to develop into something special, that’s the same type of fan that is still waiting for Mackenzie Gore to be an ace. Players show you who they are. Just watch the games.
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