Monday Quickie - Dead Cat bounce is done

The Nats are done for the season.  

In reality they were done for the season at the start of the season and the way the ownership approached the building of the team should have made that clear. But as we didn't expect anything from the season we didn't know they were committed to NOT trying until that actually became an issue. 

The Nats right now are were the management expected them to be.  A team stripped of the usable veteran parts they picked up with one "star" bat in the lineup, though if you asked them that star would have been Wood with Abrams traded and not Abrams with Wood injured.  Still I think it's a good sign they didn't trade Abrams and recognized the team, at least offensively, is closer to competitive than not. 

 What's next is 1) taking care of James Wood and 2) doing their best to answer questions about the team for next year. Who's got a slot taken care of and who will be fighting for a role next year.  You can see what they want offensively - Ruiz at C, Abrams at 2B, Nunez at SS, House at 3B,  Wood + 2 of Young, Lile and Crews in the OF, a couple of bats from Chaparro, Ortiz, etc. make themselves favorites for 1B and DH. Pitching is more of a mish-mash : Will anyone joine Cavalli in the rotation next year? How many of these RP look like guys you want to say "ok that spot is covered" for? 

But functionally on the field answering these questions mean more losses than wins and the slow air leak out of the fun balloon we've been playing keepy-uppy with all season. The good times for 2026 are over. 

Foster Griffin - we barely knew ya

 The Nats only make one more deal but as expected it's for Foster Griffin.  To Cleveland for four guys pitchers Will Dion, Kendeglys Virguez, and Josh Hartle, and outfielder Nick Mitchell

If you thought the Garcia haul was about quantity this one REALLY is about quantity.  

But to be fair that is what Griffin should bring back - next to nothing.  He's been good but his ERA is under what the fancy stats say it should be.  He's a back end starter for 2 months. This is what you get for that. 

Will Dion is a failed starter propsect attempting to become a reliever but at an age (will be 27 at the start of next season) they can't really expect it to stick.  He's got pretty good walk and K rates but tends to get rattled once someone reaches base. He's a guy to throw in the bullpen now. 

Virguez is the typical "live arm" can be unhittable if he can hit the strikezone, which is usually can't. But he's at a decent age (just turned 22) for trying to fix him. 

Josh Hartle is a mediocre prospect starter. He's doing ok in AA but doesn't strikeout enough and walks too many giving him real "this is his ceiling" feelings. 

Nick Mitchell is org depth. 

The Nats are hoarding pitching depth and you can understand why.  They have Susana and Sykora and basically nothing worth talking about.  If both those guys don't work out (honestly again with prospects the most likely situation) then they'd be doing repeats of what they did this year if they don't want to spend money for the best FA arms.  They need depth of guys that can be slotted in that maybe they aren't as good but aren't a huge step back. Better guys in the rotation, better guys to back them up.   This isn't about hitting 8 of 8 or even 4 of 8.  It's about hitting 2 of 8. Maybe 3 of 8 if we're talking about getting some decent use in the next 3-4 years. Will they?  No one knows!  Not even the best prospect guys.  That's why you get depth. 

Garcia traded for quantity

The Nats get Yovanny Cruz, Jake Bird, Ben Grable and Jack Cebert.  

Cebert is the one the Nats are probably most hopeful for - a starter that probably ends the season Top 10 in the Yankees prospect lists.  One of their college arms that they turn into decent prospects. He ruled High A then struggled in AA but might be turning that around too.  The main issue with Cebert is that he turns 25 next year so when a true stud should be rounding into major league form, he'll likely be proving he deserves a call-up from AAA. That is where he sits though - maybe he's a major leaguer maybe a AAAA type.  But never hurts to have more of those as options. 

Grable is kind of a one-trick pony in that he has a fun fastball that is tough to hit... for minor leaguers.  It was DOMINANT in high A but more hittable in AA. It's gonna be one of those things that if it it holds that major leaguers find it hard to hit he'll be a great relief arm.  If not he's probably nothing. But hey you want someone with a chance! 

Cruz is your "dynamic stuff can he ever control it?" type. At about to be 27 it's far more likely that the answer is no BUT if it is yes he could be dominant. 

Jake Bird is 30yo bullpen filler that is probably a safe bet to be out of baseball in under 5 years, maybe under 3. 

The MOST likely single scenario - Jake Irvin and a couple of live bullpen arms that give you hope and maybe a good year but ultimately disappoint, but we're talking like 20% here for MOST likely.  There are a lot of different possibilities.  If the Nats get Grable or Cruz to become a lights out reliever then it's worth it. If they get Cebert to be a good enough rotation guy, it's worth it. And the chances are probably better that one of them has a career at least sort of like this. 

Who's here and who's not - Make your guesses

I'll go with NEARLY everyone gone. Garcia and Griffin sure. I'll say Williams for scraps. And hell Chaparro and Crews for some random arms because they need random arms and not random bats. 

I'll say though when the smoke clears Abrams is still here. I think they are looking to get blown away for CJ.  They won't be because the market doesn't look at an out of position guy having possibly a career year the same way they look at a Sot. Not that THAT'S the benchmark for the deal they expect - just saying you look at a guy differently who's always produced than one that's just doing it. It'll be a gamble to keep him because I think they are going to trade him eventually and whatever is the "not blown away deal" this year is likely going to be better than what you can get next year unless Abrams repeats this plate performance. 

Bring Back Max?

The Nats need pitching help.  The Jays might be doing some minor selling in the hopes of resetting for 2027. Max Scherzer is a Jay and won't cost much given his recent injuries and performance issues. So... bring back Max?

Ehhhhh

Scherzer blossomed into an ace in 2012 with the Tigers and the Nats managed to snatch him up in free agency getting his best years with arguably the second best FA contract of all time (I still say Randy Johnson's 4 Cy Young in 4 years beats it, sorry*)  He was traded to the Dodgers for what may be scraps (Ruiz has been in a slow tumble since late May - first the power, now the average) pitched well then signed with the Mets.  His first year was as good as any with the Nats, although he did miss some time. But after that at age 38 in 2023, time began catching up with him. He was still an effective swing and miss guy but he was making more mistakes. Walks and homers both went up and the Mets sent him to Texas. He made some adjustments and when he pitched in Texas he was ok, but in 2024 that wasn't even close to a third of a season. Toronto took a chance on him last year and he was a perfectly ok rotation filler but too injured to rely on, and now he's still battling injuries and is just bad. 

What happened?  What happens to all old arms. The fastball velocity goes. You can't rely on it so you shift to more breaking junk which was never your bread and butter and is now worse than your peak so the results aren't what you like. You get hurt and nothing is as good coming back. 

One of Max's bugaboos was that he was never a GB pitcher. He gave up flyballs and when he was going bad he became ScHeRzer, giving up bombs for runs. This was ok when he was missing bats and putting no one on but now he's not doing enough of either and those are three run shots, not solo ones.  

If you want a positive to Max's outing - his fastball velocity was up.  If he can tick it up a bit more that's into effective territory.  BUT he's no where near as controlled with his pitches anymore. The walks came and that may be the trade-off that he has to put out there. 

As a starter he might be able to figure out a middle ground of dialing it up early with the hopes of being on and then working smarter if he's too wild and gets himself into trouble to limit the damage. Become a wily 5 inning guy.  I can see that. But fans are asking for Max to dial it up and head to the pen.  Even if he wants that I see a guy that can't do that while controlling where the ball goes.  And if he can't hit say... 95 without having control, well that's not close to a major league fireballer. While he may have the temperment of a pen guy, he doesn't have the stuff. Too wild. No out pitch anymore. 

If the Nats want to bring him back to fill in the back of the rotation, to take care of these weird opener situations, sure. Maybe you get pucky and he can find a 2024 like finish. But as a reliever? Nah. It doesn't feel right nor would it work out.  

 

*Yeah the length does help Max, but in two and two thirds more years with the Nats than Randy spent with the D-Backs (in his initial contract before the option years) Max only threw 200 IP more. Max's best year by bWAR is still behind Randy's worse year and Randy's combined bWAR is less than 1 behind Max's. They both got a WS title. It's ok to be #2 ALL-TIME.

Monday Quickie - Still Here

One thing you have to realize about the Nats is they HAVEN'T made a big push to remain in the Wild Card hunt.  6-4 in last 10.  8-7 in last 15.  In mid June they reached 39-35 and they've gone 15-17 since and they've gone from in the WC and up a game to one game out of the Wild Card.  

The middle of the NL is extremely soft. There are no very good teams beyond possibly the Phillies (and I'm not 100% sold on them).  There are six basically equal teams looking to get that last spot.  The Nats are in good shape to be the one. 

But it's not the plan. 

The plan is 2028, with 2027 looking brighter based on this year, but it's never been 2026. 

So they trade a good bat today for a good arm tomorrow.  The process doesn't change. 

But who is going to make that push? The Padres or Diamondbacks seem possible. The Pirates and Marlins seem unlikely.  I don't know where the Cardinals stand. They were kind of supposed to be in year one of a complete tear down to the studs but then Jordan Walker suddenly became the player everyone thought he'd be 2 years ago and the pitching has been surprisingly better than average. I can't see them buying but who knows? If you don't you are wasting build around Jordan Walker which you might have for only a couple more years before you'd want to deal him... but I digress

The Nats should be in the thick of it. Will they be pressing the issue though? The first trade suggests not. That was a good deal but not a good deal for 2026. Early just started mound work.

 

The team is better than you thought they'd be.

The league is worse than you might have thought it would be. 

You hope for things to work out like this. 

Bought and Sold

 Like we said - why not both.  Bats for arms.  Mead for Early

In losing Mead they lose a power bat whose prospect history suggests could keep this up.  The major league results are spottier but he’s young enough you can see a team still buying into scouting

In gaining Early the get a rotation worthy arm who’s probably more a 3/4 but a 3/4 with lots of control left.  A spot that doesn’t have to be filled with cash or FA gambles.  That is if he can stay healthy. He already missed time with an inflamed elbow

Quick take - I like the deal. It turned nothing into a decent chance at 100s of innings  

Buy, Sell? Why not both?

 That's the implication of what we've heard from Toboni recently.  This makes sense.  The organization likely came into the year thinking SELL SELL SELL but given the team has shown themselves to have a playoff caliber offense they would be shooting a gift horse in the mouth to do that.  You want a great offense. You have it.  You want great pitching.  EH.  So the goal should be to get good pitching. Simple? 

Well it would be if you had a ton of money from owners that wanted to spend but no one believes that so instead we are left with trying to do particular sales to fund the pitching without hurting the offense. 

And now we're at the problems. 

You can't really sell good pitching because you need good pitching.  Is Foster Griffin good pitching? 

You should sell your good hitters to be to fund the pitching of now and that does make sense but the organization was planning to keep the those guys.  Can they get over their initial desires? 

Or alternatively, will they decide to gamble on those guys to replace some guys like Garcia they could sell now? 

My guess?  The latter.  Selling good guys now - Garcia, Abrams for real pitching.  

And... I don't love it. Birds in the bush are those for reasons. Every team can name more prospects they were excited about that didn't pan out. But I don't have the information they have.  If the money is not coming any time soon then it will be foolish to go in now on guys that will be gone in a couple years. But I don't think you can say anything like that for sure based on what they do. 

It's also hard. Because guys selling WANT the kids. They aren't looking to get guys for now.  So there has to be some kids thrown in. 

A lot of people are saying this is a fascinating deadline for the Nats and I agree. We could see anything from a complete rebuild to a light push for the playoffs this year and you can justify any of that. 

What do you want out of the second half of the year?

Assuming the planned Nats trajectory is "do nothing, see you in 2027" do you want a mini-run after the break to get your hopes up?

I say sure.  Better baseball is better baseball even in the pursuit of nothing.

Do you have a goal win total for the end of the year

.500 or bust! 

Do you want to see these guys traded or re-signed (let's assume reasonable market contract - which means decently big but not crazy

Miles Mikolas or Zack Littell?

Take the bag of balls.  

Foster Griffin? 

I guess trade - nice find but let me put pitching $ toward something other than a mid-rotation 30yo with half a good season in the bank

Luis Garcia

Hmmm. I've always liked him but I feel like replacing a 1B should be the easiest thing (should - the Nats have shown it's not) and you are trading high. Still he's 26. I guess I say Keep because I like my continuity but I understand.  

CJ Abrams? 

SIGN

Who do you want to win the East and make the playoffs in general and no stupid "the meteor" answers. Gotta pick. 

Phillies for the East.  Been ok with them since the Schmidt days. 

Brewers and well I don't want the Dodgers but let's be honest with ourselves. 

WC, if not the Nats - Pirates, Padres, D-backs 

In the AL. Yankees obv, Indians, oh jeez I don't like any of my choices. Texas is the worst. Seattle is a bunch of cry babies - Boston west, Houston has gotta purge all the cheaters... I guess Seattle wins out, yuk. 

Being honest again, Rays are at least in as a WC, so them and Twins and Blue Jays. I don't love the Jays but let Toronto be rewarded for trying again.  

ASB P2 - Again we argue the future

What almost every ownership group wants is obvious. They want to be the Tampa Bay Rays or possibly the Cleveland Indians.  They want to be a team that wins constantly with a low payroll. That's the goal. What's more important out of the two? Sadly the low payroll, so if they don't win that's not the worst thing that can happen.

This differs from what the fans want which is simply to win.  They want to see playoffs and championships. If the team doesn't win that IS the worst thing in the world. And that's where the conflict happens, or at least where it should happen. Now spending money is FAR from a guarantee of success, but the numbers are pretty clear that spending money is better than not spending money in regards to making that happen.

An ownership group has three options then (1) ignore the fans as they aren't the most crucial money driver unless you create a big fandom, (2) give in to the fans and spend some more money, or (3) convince the fans they are wrong and spending money is actually bad.  Despite the multiple Dodgers titles and the Yankees and Phillies always in the playoffs, they've done a very good with (3). "We can put that money back into player development!" "Sure we could have an ok team now, but don't you want a GREAT team later?"   

That's where the Nats are now... well sort of. What we know is the Nats have a do fun team now that could still make the playoffs and could have had a better shot if the Nats FO did something earlier. It wouldn't have been likely to really contend but with nothing certain for the future is it better to lean in when opportunities are presented to you?  That's the philosophy question I suppose. What is increased chances at a long set of playoff runs and real title contention worth to you? 

In theory that could be worth a lot, but I think fans tend to skew those chances, (and they aren't helped because that's what the owners are always selling you).  In their minds it's like "sure we could go to a 66% chance of a WC spot for the next couple of years, but we can have like a 90% chance of a long playoff run starting in three years if we don't!" But the reality is more like "sure we could go to a 66% chance of a WC spot for the next couple of years, but the Nats have a 20% to have another long run starting in the next couple of years, we can up it to maybe 35%!" That's what you are throwing away pushes right in front of you for.  

This is an all-time argument in baseball though and not one easily answered, because those long run results ARE so good and these short unexpected runs usually are just a couple of meaningless fun series. But it IS risk / reward.  The payoff is high, sure you could be the Rays or Indians but the risk is real, you could also be the Athletics or Pirates or Rockies or Royals...  

My question though is - do fans really want to be the Rays? The key to the Rays is the constant churn.  Have a guy, he gets good, send him off for some young guys to replace him, rinse, repeat. There is no core set of players you are rooting for, only truly a set of laundry that guys fill aged 20-27 before heading off elsewhere. If you do it right occasionally that group comes together to matter, but when they don't you have a team that is bad that also engenders no loyalty. The Rays are consistently one of the lowest teams in attendance good or bad. These things are connected. 

But maybe the Nats are already one of these teams? Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, Trea Turner.  All stars. All gone. What made the Nationals different was never a commitment to young players to age with the team but the willingness to go out and grab 1-2 big time FAs to be the final pieces. If the Nats don't keep CJ Abrams, that's nothing new, but simply the Nats being the Nats. Where things would be different is if after that happens they don't spend any money. There is no follow-up Scherzer or Corbin. 

Really the most important thing here is we don't know what this Nats organization is going to be like. This isn't the Pirates or Rockies with decades of proof they don't know what they are doing and don't care. This Nats org could trade Abrams and use that saving to then bring in Skubal. So all these arguments about should the Nats have done more this year are sort of made in this great vacuum of knowledge.  If the Nats are a team committed to winning that just want to set-up the best team possible when spending money then no they shouldn't do anything now (or really it was ok they didn't do anything earlier - it's a bit too late now). If the Nats are a team just hoping to "out-organization" to be the next cheap-o Rays or Pirates whatever the results may be then they should have gone for it. But we don't know.  

As far as getting that knowledge the trade deadline will tell us something. The off-season will tell us more.  

ASB P1 - Are the Nationals for real and can they make a run for the playoffs?

We have rounded the crest of the season are are heading into the dog days where seasons for all but the worst teams are won or lost. The Nationals have shown themselves clearly not to be one of the worst teams so what does the next month have in store for them? Well it boils down to the two answers above. 

Are the Nationals for real?   Yes.  They have finally been caught for the most R/G in baseball (by the Pirates!  Someone go back so I can make that bet) but they have a very healthy lead on most of the other teams in baseball.  Sixth is the Twins nearly a half-run back. The questions from earlier in the season remain, Can Wood keep this up for an entire season? Does CJ have an extended slump in him? Is Ruiz really this good? But 95 games in it looks like the answers are Yes, No, and good enough.  Add to that Luis Garcia developing a power swing and Curtis Mead being a perfectly decent Joey Meneses, Mike Morse "found this guy who can only hit for 1-3 years of help" and you have a Top 5 in the Nats lineup that can literally hang with any teams.  The bottom four isn't as fun but Lile and Vivas are livable and Nunez and Young have made themselves not terrible in exchange for their plus defense. Is the bench pretty much a horror show? Yeah, but that's the understandable cost of not actually building the team for this year. Your main set-up can be solid but there's nothing behind it. 

When you have the best offense in baseball you can challenge for .500 even if you have the worst pitching and that's a good thing because the Nats might have the worst pitching. While they are only 3rd they are behind two bad teams playing in weird situations (Rockies and Athletics) that effect their results. The Nats "weird situation" is that they don't want to put anything toward getting better. On the mound the Nats are hanging on by their fingernails. Cavalli looks fine, not an ace, but likely able to be relied on in a #2/#3 role. Foster Griffin's great results are living on borrowed time but he should also be rotation worthy.  The rest of the pack is a group of "let's see what we get from this guy tonight" guys. You can't rely on these guys but the alternatives are worse.  Almost every team throws one of these guys out there, most two. Three is a little much but this rotation is still enough to get into the playoffs with that offense. We all know the starting pitching isn't the issue. 

The Nats relief pitching is among the worst in baseball and the ERA has been pushing 6.00 for the past couple months. You don't necessarily need a deep pen with this offense, just a reliable 3 man set that can hold leads late. The Nats don't have even that.  Andrew Alvarez is possibly the best arm, but he's been forced into game start duties leaving his innings high and making him unavailable for late relief. That literally left Orlando Ribalta and Brad Lord as your go to guys, two arms best suited to be the 3rd man in that reliable 3rd man set. Poulin might be decent enough against lefties and right now that's it. Your "three man set" is two guys who might occasionally be able to do it and a guy you can sort of trust against lefties.  And if these guys are tired or hurt (Lord is currently out) or otherwise unavailable? You have absolute trash. Like the Nats offensive bench this is the cost of not trying for the year but why the initial pen was so bad? That was a choice. 

And worse for Nats fans, it's a choice that we haven't heard word one of changing from the men in charge. The Nats aren't really trying and they aren't going to start. The powerful offense is a great thing to see making this season interesting but it's only applicable in respects of the decisions made for upcoming years or this year's trade deadline. 

To answer the questions from the title - Yes the Nationals are for real but no they can't make a run for the playoffs. And the reason for the no is because the front office doesn't have interest in doing that this year. 

What does that mean for next year? It depends on the decisions they make particularly with Abrams and Garcia. Abrams is likely to be kind of this good going forward (and also a continued liability at SS). Garcia is still young enough that this power burst could be for real, but it also just might be a career year for a guy that's more an average bat.  Still they are two bats you'd want for a team looking at 2027. At the same time the Nats have a solid top of bats in the minors.  Willits, King, Fitz-Gerald, Cruz are all solid prospects with Willits being one of the top ones in baseball. The quantity is there to potentially trade Abrams and/or Garcia away to bolster the Nats future pitching depth which currently relies on Jarlin Susana and the TJ recovery of Travis Sykora. But if they do deal these guys away what it means for next year is that there isn't a next year, or at least there won't be a real challenge for the playoffs then either. 2027 will be moving guys up and seeing what they got and figuring out how to put that playoff team together for 2028. 

Monday Quickie - back from vacation

 The Nats are where they have been now for a while which is fun and good because where they are is "about .500 and in the playoff discussion".  

About a month ago we talked about the playoffs and while we'll go over that deeper in a week during the ASB I want to look at my assumptions about the other teams to see how they held up. If so, it's likely worth checking them out again the same way at that time. 

 

Gap would grow between the Nats and Braves/Dodgers/Brewers

Was 11.5 behind ATL, 8.5 behind MIL, 8.5 behind LAD 

Now 7.5 behind ATL, 10.5 behind MIL,  13 behind LAD

Well the one that matters I was wrong. Basically the rest of June was a horror show for the Braves going 4-13 to end the month. They've picked it back up recently and I still think I'm basically right in my call here that these are just better teams. 

Cardinals and Phillies are likely no worse than Nats, catchable but likely to hold lead

Was 3 behind STL, 2.5 behind PHI

Now 3 behind STL, 4.5 behind PHI

PHI has shown that the horrible start was just that and they are a perfectly decent team. That plus the general advantages should keep them ahead of the Nats depending on trade deadline machinations, injuries, and general luck 

Arizona and San Diego are worse than Nats and definitely catchable 

Was 1 game behind ARI, 1 game behind SDP

Now  1 game ahead of ARI, 1 game ahead of SDP

Yep, these guys aren't as good. 

Cubs and the Pirates are better than the Nats and might widen tiny gap 

Was 0.5 games behind PIT, 0.5 games behind CHC

Now tied with PIT, 4.5 games behind CHC. 

One team proved me right with the Cubs big push in June ending the month 14-4.  The Pirates seemed more on par with the Nats when they faced. 

Cincy is a mirage, but maybe the Marlins are real? 

Was 2 games ahead of CIN, 2.5 games ahead of the Marlins

Now  4 games ahead of CIN, 3 games BEHIND the Marlins

Well look at that. Marlins are on a 23-8 run currently while whatever luck Cincy had has petered out. 

 

The short of it - yeah those assumptions mostly held up. Really only one team surprised from what I was thinking and that was the Braves. Most did exactly what the numbers said they would and the others didn't stray that far. So yeah worth while to look again, see what has changed and where the Nats fit. But that's for a couple weeks. 

The Nats have a good run into and out of the ASB. Into it's the middling Astros, the Yankees who can't hit without Judge and he isn't expected back before the ASG, and the bad A's. Out of it it's the bad Rockies and the middling Dbacks and Blue Jays. If they really are contenders for a playoff spot they'll take these 18 games and go like 11-7, 12-6. Tread water and trades of good players and a crash out to end 2026 seems more likely 

 

Ok that was all bad

The question now is - do they do something about it? 

The Nats pen has been known to be bad. They currently have the second worst ERA in the majors at 5.05 and yes it was a little better before this series but it was still well ensconced in the bottom group of teams, ahead of the Twins. They've giving up the third most walks (172) and by FAR the most home runs (61).  To be fair they've been asked to pitch way more than any other team.  Their 392 innings is 10% more than the 3rd place Mets. That doesn't sound like much but trust me it is. 

So it IS connected to the starting pitching.  In order to save the arms of a perfectly average starting pitching staff they are throwing fewer innings. Which then go to a bad relief staff. 

So one correction is right there in front of the Nats. Time to take the training wheels off and let the starters go 6+ innings if they can.  But that still doesn't solve the problem that by the fancy stats they Nats have one good reliever (Alvarez) and two ok ones (Lord, Ribalta).  Beyond that Beeter and Schultz are currently usable and the rest are trash. And the depth is worse. There is no real help expected to come from the minors. 

It's unlikely the starters can be as good pitching longer but it's also known that the relievers aren't good pitching as much as they have.  The Nats have let it go because they've won enough early to just accept it, but if they want to really win they need to fix the problem

Which then begs the question : do they really want to win in 2025?

My guess is no so while some relievers might be available out there, I don't think we'll see them here. These are your 2026 Nats. These are the results they will get. Buckle up. 

OK that was bad

Baseball, huh? 

The crazy part wasn't the loss. A two out single and homer meant the game was tied and going into extras it's basically anyone's game. No the crazy part was with two outs the Phillies went :

Single - Homer - Single - Single - Homer - Walk - Single - Double - Walk - Single 

They didn't just bat around - after two outs they batted around and no one got out. Forget the runs, I just want to know the last time 10 straight men made it on base safely in a game. 

It also kind of stinks that Ribalta was looking good and probably could have handled the 8th (or at least deserved a shot) but they have a plan and that plan in their head that said Lovelady into Beeter. They want that 8-9 set up because it makes things easier. Even if it's probably not better, there is something to be said for roles being known for clubhouse headspace and all. But they failed and Lord and Schultz both pitched so they won't be exactly fresh for tonight and the Phillies will have seen them once - which as we saw with Lord and Beeter tonight - makes a difference.  WIll it matter? Better hope it's the rarer good Mikolas that shows up tonight. 

The Nats get Nola tonight and Sanchez tomorrow which you can't feel is in your favor.  Rolling through a 4 game set with the Phillies and not getting both Wheeler and Sanchez demands you take 2 of 3 from the other guys.  It's 1-1 right now. 

Monday Quickie - is this worrying?

 On May 22nd the Nats were 25-27 and looking like they were going to stay in that area - flirting with .500, maybe going a game or two over but likely dropping back under - for the rest of the year. That had been the story of the season after the 3-1 start, and fit with the pre-season expectations mixed with what we were seeing on the field. But since then they've gone 15-8 and have put themselves squarely in the "huh, we need to check in on these guys before the All-Star Break and see how real they are".   But it's not all good news. 

On May 22nd the Nats were in 3rd place in the NL East. 11 games behind ATL, 1 game behind PHI, 2 games ahead of MIA.

On June 22nd the Nats are tied for 3rd place in the NL East. 9 games behind ATL, 2.5 games behind PHI, and tied with the Marlins. 

They are undoubtedly in a better position today than a month ago.  They were 4.5 games out of the 3rd Wild Card while today they are a half-game out, but there isn't an NL East team they've played more than twice. If the NL East is really this solid there are a lot of hard games coming. They'll play 4 more against Philly this week then it's NL East free until August where they'll cram all the rest of their inter-division games into the last two months. 

The tendency is to sort of say - hey the Phillies aren't real and the Marlins REALLY aren't real but how does that apply to them and not the Nationals?

The Phillies stats suggest their record should be a lot lower, but taking a closer look at it, it's more that when they stood at 13-19 to start May they should have been like 10-22 or worse. The recent Phillies have been scoring runs and pitching well. 

The Marlins stats suggest they should be a LOT better. Like one of the B-Tier teams in baseball behind the Yankees, Brewers and Dodgers. What they have is a lineup with no obvious low points (hey Nasim! What are you doing here? And you brought Jose today? How relevant!) and a very solid pitching staff that is deep with maybe the best bullpen in baseball.*

At this point we are taking the Nats to be real so we have to do the same for these other teams. Which means we have to move forward thinking if the Nats are going to compete for a Wild Card, it'll be a dog fight within their own division and someone is likely to be left out if that's the case. 

 

*Fun fact?  The Marlins have the best inherited runner scoring % at 22%. The Nats have the worst at 44%. 

Foster Griffin - the actual find?

There was an article somewhere recently about the turn around for Littell and Mikolas.  I kind of dismiss that because major league pitchers aren't going to go out there and throw like trash for 30 games. There are ups and downs and adjustments and injuries and chances are if you started slow you'll look better. I don't pretend those guys aren't what they are. 

But Foster Griffin was a pull from overseas. A former 1st rounder that couldn't control anything that now is mixing like 8 different pitches for success.  Is he real?

I want to say yes but that HR rate is what's keeping me from doing that. Giving up a homer plus every game is not a recipe for success.  His last 5 homers have been solo shots where as that was more like half his early homers. Yes he's keeping guys off base with limited walks, but his hit rate isn't that great and that first set makes more sense to me. 

What's that mean?  It means that we should be looking at a future around where his ERA was before this solo shot barrage.  4.00ERA+.  But hey - that's STILL a find. 

I don't mean OMG they found a star, but they did grab a cheap guy that isn't just filling in innings at the back of the rotation. An ERA of say 4.15  puts him around the 75th best starter in the game. That's a legit 3/4 type arm. 

Littell and Mikolas are rotation fillers. Don't think that isn't important. Having a slight turnaround from "maybe they should quit baseball" to "ok as a 5" is important for the Nats because the bullpen is so bad. An inning more of under 5.00 ERA ball matters to this team. But maybe you can dredge this up from the minors or any rando free agent. That's what they did this year and the last few (Irvin, Parker). Finding a guy you need in your rotation or else you take a big hit is something else. And I think Griffin is that guy

Monday Quickie - Under the radar time

 Sometimes a team just needs to be left to do what they are doing with no scrutiny.  There isn't a real tell if the Nats are that type of team but it is clear they have been working out of the spot light for longer they might have in a typical sports year.  However this year we had a NY title in basketball with all those stars out, we had a crazy start to the Stanley Cup, and now we have the World Cup going on.  In baseball the best teams are the Braves, Dodgers and Yankees (and yes the Brewers).  The media air has been sucked out of the room. The Nats aren't on anyone's mind.

Let's put it some other baseball ways.  

The Mets spent a ton and are almost certainly playing themselves out of the playoffs. The Red Sox might be the 2nd worst team in baseball (probably not and the Rockies aren't going to let anyone take the worst title from them). The Pirates with Paul Skenes are in the thick of the playoff hunt. The White Sox are leading the AL Central.  The WHITE SOX.   

The aforementioned Skenes has a 2.85 ERA and 100Ks already and who cares.  Cam Schlitter has a 1.82 ERA, as does Christopher Sanchez who shut out teams for 5 games in a row.  Both are looking up at Jacob Misiorowski who might be breaking through the media ceiling a bit by having a 1.34 ERA and 131 strikeouts while throwing the ball regularly well over 100 MPH over his starts. And all this while Shohei in his starts just went over 1.00 ERA.

It's not hitting like it might have hit in 2025.  

So if the Nats ARE a team that need a little peace and quiet to keep going, they have it for a few more weeks.  

We are two weeks into June.  Keibert isn't hitting as he was but he's hitting fine.  CJ isn't hitting like a star but he's hitting ok. Mead isn't hitting anymore but it's not embarrassing.  And in their place Lile is hitting and Garcia is hitting and most importantly Wood is a superstar again. .281 with 20 homers and almost 60 walks.  He's going to hit 40 plus homers. He's is leading all NL Players in Offensive WAR*, and is in a battle with Alvarez in Houston for best bat in baseball this year. Carrying this team. 

The pitching is not better but they are also covering for themselves with better play here and there.  Sure it just keeps them at "pretty bad" but with the offense as it is, that's all it needs to be. 

The Nats are doing what they are doing and aren't stopping just yet.  Take notice, even if everyone else isn't. 

*Pete C-A is hitting pretty well and plays amazing defense, and of course you aren't going to catch Shohei in WAR unless you pitch 

Are playoffs a possibility?

I don't see the Nats as a .500 team on talent. 

BUT here they are. Which begs the question for me - maybe this is a season where this level of talent gets you to .500. And there are seasons where .500 ish can get you to the playoffs.  Does this seem like a good fit for 2026? 

Currently the Nats are a game out of the Wild Card, behind two teams and slightly ahead of... well most of the NL. What do the adjusted standings (trying to take luck out of what happened so far) tell us? You can choose which one you like but looking at the various projectsion the Nats are where they are supposed to be.  Maybe a touch more 33-34 than 34-33 but let's not quibble.  We talked about why I think they'll end up a little below that but what about the other teams.  Is the NL East weirdly underperforming? The NL in general? I can't really say that  as you'd expect with groups that big it looks like a mixed bag.  So there's not a good reason to think luck will swing for the Nats opponents. 

What about though the ones that matter - the ones in the playoffs? The idea here is the Nats look to be pretty stable.  If someone ahead of them has a worse projected record than the Nats they might fall past them. On the other hand someone chasing the Nats could catch them if the numbers say they've been unlucky. 

The Braves, Dodgers, Brewers are all out of reach as expected. Things can change but right now they are better than the Nats and have a better record. The gap should grow, not shrink. 

The Cardinals and Phillies are in and based on these numbers are catchable. The Cardinals aren't better than the Nats, but aren't worse. Their advantage is simply being where they are right now. The Nats have to catch them. The Phillies are more in danger, powered to their record by a 14-5 one-run game record as opposed to the stats. The Nats have a good shot of catching Philly if they play like they have this year. The question there is do you take the year as a whole or ignore the terrible start?  If you put that behind the Phillies, they probably are in the Cardinals area - not great but good enough to hold that advantage. 

Arizona and San Diego, tied for the 3rd spot right now. Both look worse than the Nats for the season. Not a bad chance to catch them at all. They do get to feast on the Rockies though. 

Just ahead of the Nats are the Cubs and Pirates. This may be where the problem lies for the Nats. These two look like teams that should do much better. So while the Phillies, D-Backs, and Padres might flub the last two WC spots, it's the Cubs and Pirates who'd the numbers say you should bet on. 

Behind the Nats are Cincy and the Marlins.  Cincy appears to be a mirage even at this modest record. The Marlins though... are kind of real? This is weird.  I don't know.  I can believe in James Wood / CJ Abrams MVP pair a lot easier than Xavier Edwards / Otto Lopez. But I think the Marlins, real or not, are in the same sort of fragile boat the Nats are. There isn't obvious depth.  If one key guy goes down it could get ugly. There's a lot of variance here, too much for me to say, yeah they'll catch the Nats. 

Finally there's the Mets, not buried far enough to be out of it, but they haven't been good and something would have to change for this team to catch the Nats. It certainly could but the numbers so far suggest lots of other possibilities first. 

So looking at the way the season has gone so far. The Nats have been a .500 team and if they can keep that up they COULD make the playoffs but it's likely they'd be the first or second team out. It's not out of the realm of possibility though.  We'll see how this all changes around the All-Star break. 

What about the pitching?

The pitching - well it's not very good but we can't just go ahead and make assumptions that it'll stay that way.  Maybe it will get better! (or worse!) 

About a month ago I looked at the starters and tried to figure out who was "real" there. I said Irvin could be a poor innings eater and Litell really was bad.  Well May has not been kind to Irvin.  He might have broke. On the other hand Litell looked much better. I said I didn't know about Miles and I still don't. Mikolas has been a weird mixed bag, shutting down ATL for 5 then two starts later getting pounded by MIA. I do think we still don't know what this guy is from capable mid-rotation guy to coaching high school baseball. I said Foster Griffin wasn't an ace (he's not) and Cavalli should be better (he has been) 

I think it means the starting pitching can maintain it's current "not very good but maybe good enough not to drag the team down" trajectory. Cavalli is an actual not back of the rotation major league starter.  Four the rest of the four, I'd say something decent is there each time around from Litell, Griffin, Mikolas, and the last spot while also two not so decent things and a bad thing. That's a below average rotation but one that 2 out of every 5 days is good enough and you might get lucky another 2 with this offense. 

The relief pitching hasn't been good either and there's a decent argument it should get worse with Schultz, Lovelady, and Beeter seeing important innings and all should get worse based on stats. To me though if Varland, Lord, and Ribalta are real that's enough to hold down your wins. 

Again we're not looking for the pitching staff to win, we're looking for them to hold place.  They are currently one of the worst staffs in baseball but not the complete drag the Cubs or Giants rotations are.  I think they can hold that. The relief staff is decidedly belwo average but not game losing... I think they might be a little worse that that actually. Just more guys who are doing better than you'd expect. Maybe you can dial that in.  It's hard to say because if one position is still in the "it's early" stage - it's relief pitching. A couple bad outings for a guy who throws 17 innings can really screw things up.  So while I THINK they might be worse than that, it's what I'm least confident about. 

Where does this leave the Nats as a team?  

I think it's a team who's bats and staff are both a little overperforming.  They've basically earned their .500 record 62 games in but I'd be surprised if they matched it in the final 100.  But also 40-60 would be a surprise.  45-55 makes more sense to me which puts this at a 76 win team. Is that good enough? 

I think cooling down right now might be best because people were getting excited in a "playoffs maybe possibly, if I squint my eyes?" way and that was an overreach. That isn't this team. I think what will get people properly excited is if the season ends with kids like King and Morales up and looking good and a sensible pitching plan for 2027 that isn't "find what scraps you can put behind Cavalli" 

Can the rest of the team keep hitting?

We took at look at James and CJ but there are seven other guys who make up the line-up. While stars can do a lot, they can't carry a dead two innings at the plate.  So the question is can these guys keep doing what they are doing? 

We'll start with two easy ones - Can Luis Garcia hit about average?  Sure!  Since 2022 that's what he's done so no reason to think the 26 year old is going to be any different now.  Can Nasim Nunez still stink? Sure! There's a reason the slick-fielding SS was available in the Rule V draft.  They never thought he could hit at the major league level. And he's proving them right. I suppose he could be worse, but for now we'll leave it as a yes - he can maintain a .200 BA with some walks and zero power. 

Ok what about the other 5+? We'll start with the three regulars from the start of the year. Lile, Young and Ruiz. 

Daylen Lile - the kid has taken a step back from last year when he played well enough to send Crews back to the minors and have Nats fans thinking maybe they found a star. Fans keep doing that.  Lile is hitting across the board worse and well we don't know what's coming next. It could be adjustments from him or it could be further adjustments from the other teams to really put him down.  Your first time up is a lot of "can you handle major league stuff".  The answer from Lile was yes. The next step is "can you handle major league PITCHING". The difference is instead of "Here's my fastball.Try to hit it" is the other team now tries to pitch to certain spots or in certain order. They know they can't get by with no effort.  Lile is sort of holding his own but also had a worse May than April so I'm not sure. I think he won't ever be a Nunez (who can't handle major league stuff) but could he slip under average? Possible. Jury is still out on a kidwith 100 major league games under his belt

Jacob Young - he's a glove first guy and whatever the Nats get from him at the plate is a bonus... assuming he's not terrible. Last year he was pretty close to that. He does not hit the ball very hard so before this year his game was hit it on the ground and leg it out. That works until it doesn't and "it doesn't" seemed to be 2025.  In 2026 he's lifting the ball more and hitting it a touch harder and the combination is getting him more non-legged out hits. As this is not based on anything crazy, I think he can keep this up. He's a slightly below average hitter and I think that holds.

Keibert Ruiz - I'd love to say yes, but the numbers don't back that up. He IS hitting better. Ruiz was always a guy that could hit the ball - he doesn't walk, he doesn't K, he hits the ball square. But he's also a slow catcher so if he doesn't generate power all this means is a lot of ground outs. This year he's getting the ball up and hitting it harder. More hits, more XBH, fewer ground ball outs.  But the numbers aren't too far different from 2022/2023. The differences really are - nothing soft and massive amounts of pull. I just don't see Keibert Ruiz .280+  20 HR hitter here.  I do think though he can land at an averageish level. Which would be good, but would also slow the offense down. 

And the others?  Mead, Tena, Vivas, Crews, House? 

Crews still looks bad so sure he can do that. I'd honestly expect him to do better eventually but these numbers suggest more time in AAA rather than helping out the Nationals. 

House was approaching average and I would have said yes, but the team seems to think no bc they sent him back down so what do I know. I'm not going against them 

Vivas, like these two and Lile, just don't have a lot of major league at bats to feel sure about anything.  He stunk in his first year up in 2024 but that seems like a fair amount of bad luck.  I don't think he's this decent, but he's probably closer to this than that. Maybe a half step worse? Stats really don't like him so I'll guess I'll settle there. 

Tena is someone that has done what none of these other guys have. He's really swinging the bat faster. But he's trading a bit more power for more Ks and fewer walks. He's been about this "playable below average" for a while now.  No reason to say he can't keep it up. The real question for DH is when do we see some of the kids who look like they can actually hit. 

Mead is probably then what things hinge on going forward. It sounds weird to say that but what do we have so far? Garcia, Lile, Young, Ruiz, Tena sitting around average, if you made me guess I'd go below rather than above. Nunez stinking. That's could work ok in a lineup with a couple of stars but you really do need one more bat here to be good. Wiemer was that bat to start but that was always just a lucky break from a journeyman.  Mead... Mead was a legit prospect who was always expected to hit. He just didn't. He swung the bat hard but couldn't connect in the right way and that made him press a little taking away from what was in the minors a keen eye with good contact.  But it seems to all be coming together now. I'm not going to say he can keep it up but also I'm not going to say he can't keep up something close. The numbers are that good. 

 

The end result of a look at the other guys is probably a full step back. As might be expected with the team unexpectedly doing so well, you have guys outperforming where they should be. The good news is though there's a lot of ok talent here - enough to fill in the gaps - and with the possible return of "average Ruiz" you really are just looking for a couple big bats. Yes that could be expensive and all but you do have them here in Abrams and Mead... maybe. 

I think where we come down is - Wood will keep rocking (probably unless he gets tired), the bulk of the lineup will do slightly worse but  not enough to keep the line-up from being above average. How much above average lands with CJ and Mead.  If these guys can hit like stars for the season, you have your Top 3 lineup carrying the below average staff. If they can't it's more around average. My take from the numbers says they can't BUT also not like in a "going to collapse" way. More like dropping down to slightly above average. Good enough to be fun. Probably not good enough to keep the team over .500.  For that they'll need some pitching help.